2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th (user search)
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  2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th  (Read 31369 times)
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« on: January 09, 2023, 07:57:51 PM »

Are the Chinese threats from the time Pelosi visited Taiwan having an effect on the election?

With Biden clearly trying to leverage his record on the Russia-Ukraine War for his re-election in 2024 I expect the GOP to try to outflank the Dems on the PRC issue in 2023.  I wonder if GOP Speaker McCarthy will repeat Pelosi's visit to ROC in 2023.  

If so I am not sure if the DPP regime will be so hot on that.  Some DPP post-mortem of the 2022 ROC local elections did report that Pelosi's visit followed by the PRC reaction mostly hurt the DPP in the elections in Nov 2022.  On the flip side if the DPP finds itself behind the KMT in Fall 2023 for the Jan 2024 Prez elections I can see DPP taking the bet and asking GOP Speaker McCarthy to visit.

If anything DPP  post-mortems of 2022 seem to indicate that PRC Pelosi's visit and PRC counteractions mostly helped the relatively pro-PRC KMT.
I'm sorry why did China threatening Taiwan turn the Taiwanese into a pro-PRC people?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #1 on: March 11, 2023, 07:01:36 PM »

Fingers crossed for Lai.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2023, 03:25:05 AM »

Jaichind, if the current state of the race was a US-style 538 0/100 thing what would each party be at? Would it be something like 70% chance of a KMT win and 30% of a DPP win? Or something else?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2023, 01:08:47 AM »

It seems GOP Speaker McCarthy adheres to "One China" principle and supports "Taiwan is part of China"



Is it possible that we'll see something similar to KMT/DPP where the left circles the wagons around Taiwan while the right becomes more amenable to China?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2023, 07:27:47 PM »

It looks like that Hou-Ko aliance comes to be true. Lai is not
likely to become the president.



Lai is still leading three-way polling anyway.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2023, 06:55:22 AM »

So Jaichind do you think that DPP Lai ultimately pulls it off?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #6 on: January 02, 2024, 06:26:14 AM »

Jaichind is it possible that Lai manages to tough it out and win the presidency?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2024, 11:11:36 PM »

Hopefully Lai and the rest of the good guys (DPP) win the election.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2024, 07:25:43 PM »

What's the best case for the NPP?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,331
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2024, 06:50:07 PM »

If DPP Lai wins re-election in 2028 who is the DPP nominee in 2032?
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