2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

As I so often do, here's a fully proportional legislature.

Taiwan/ROC 2024

DPP: 41 seats (-10)
KMT: 39 seats (-12)
TPP: 25 seats (+17)
NPP: 3 seats (+3)
TOPEP: 1 seat (+1)
GPT: 1 seat (+1)
TSP: 1 seat (+1)
PFP: 1 seat (+1)
MLP: 1 seat (+1)


MLP [0.3678 quotas] gets the last seat over TSU [0.3557 quotas]  by 1480 votes.

Pan Green has 42 seats (DPP+TSP) and Pan Blue has 40 seats (KMT+PFP). TPP holds the balance, as expected.

Jaichind, do you have any insight regarding NPP, TOPEP, GPT, and MLP, and which way each would lean? And what would this legislature end up looking like in terms of governing, considering that TPP is the deciding bloc? Would they abstain here too, or is their influence too large in this case to really pull that off? Could they get the speakership with DPP support as DPP says Ko wanted?

I think you want this
One note.  In practice, PUP and TRP have some party members and candidates who clearly lean Blue and in some cases Deep Blue even though in theory they count as Light Green as DPP splinters.

The official PR ballot came out



The parties running lists

Deep Blue
中華統一促進黨(Unionist Party) (UP) - Far Right Unification
司法改革黨 (Judicial Reform Party) (JRP) - Left Unification
新黨 (New Party) (NP) - Right Unification

中國國民黨(KMT)

Light Blue
親民黨 (People First Party) (PFP) - Soong's outfit, used to be Deep Blue, but now Light Blue

台灣民眾黨(TPP)

Light Green
人民最大黨(People Union Party) (PUP) - DPP Light green splinter
臺灣雙語無法黨(Multi Lingual Party) (MLP) - Pro-English language instruction
台灣維新(Taiwan Renewal Party) (TRP) - DPP Light-green splinter
小民參政歐巴桑聯盟(Taiwan Obasan Political Equality Party) (TOPEP) - Femenist
制度救世島 (Perpetual Peace) (PP) - Pro-Peace party, some members ex-Deep Green
時代力量(New People Power) (NPP) - Used to be Deep Green now Light Green
台灣綠黨(Green Party Taiwan)(GPT) - Green

Deep Green
台灣團結聯盟(Taiwan Solidarity Union) (TSU) - Pro-Lee KMT Deep Green splinter
台灣基進(Taiwan Statebuilding Party) (TSP) - Left independence

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll on approval rating of key political leaders

1. Lu - KMT mayor of Taichung               62
2. Chen - DPP mayor of Kaohsiung         57
3. Chiang - KMT mayor of Taipei             56
4. Han - KMT Speaker of Legislature       48
5. Lai - DPP Prez elect                           43
6. Hou - KMT mayor of New Taipei          42
7. Tsai - DPP Prez                                  41
8. Huang - DPP mayor of Tainan             40
9. Chang - KMT mayor of Taoyuan          38
10. Chen - DPP PM (former VP)              36
11. Ko - TPP Chairperson                       31
12. Ma - former KMT Prez                      30
13. Chu - KMT Chairperson                    29

Very strong numbers for Lu and Chen.  As long as Lu wants it she will win by acclimation the role of KMT Chairperson in 2025 and will lead KMT into the 2026 local elections.  And as long as the KMT does well enough she will be the KMT candidate for Prez in 2028.  If this plays out then this will break the pattern 2020 and 2024 where the Chairperson of the KMT is NOT the KMT Prez candidate.

Likewise I think DPP Kaohsiung mayor Chen steps down in 2026 (it not earlier) he might be made PM and if DPP Lai loses in 2028 he will will battle DPP VP elect Hsiao to be the DPP Prez candidate in 2032 to take on (most likely Lu)

Key people and approval/disapproval by party ID

                      DPP             KMT              TPP                  Ind.
Lu              40     38        96      1          71    10         50       13
Chen          90       2        38     45         47    31         45       16
Chiang       42      30        90      1          50    22         42       14
Han            35     44        80      7          47    30         29       24
Lai             91       2        17     65         18     59         28       25
Hou           28      51        73    15          34     45        29       25
Ko             16      78        23     72         77     15        18       46

Lai's numbers are not so hot.  Key issue is he is not winning over support of TPP voters.
Ko has lot a lot of ground across the board post election.  He is not very unpopular with KMT and DPP voters.  What he got in the 2024 Prez election is now is pretty much the cap and if he runs again in 2028 I suspect he will be in the low teens.

[jaichind]

DPP Prez Tsai meets with TPP Chairperson Ko for over 2 hours.  Ko gifts Tsai a box of "small grass" which is also the name of the pro-TPP youth grassroots organization.

What is taking place is clear.  TPP Ko is being marginalized in the media as well as in the Legislature with Ko being out of the news cycle.  His poor rating in the latest TVBS poll is part of this downward drop.  DPP Prez Tsai is fearful that the New Tide faction will come after her once DPP Prez Lai takes over.  A Tsai-Ko alliance would be a good offensive-defensive alliance mostly against the new DPP administration. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

DPP Prez Tsai meets with TPP Chairperson Ko for over 2 hours.  Ko gifts Tsai a box of "small grass" which is also the name of the pro-TPP youth grassroots organization.

What is taking place is clear.  TPP Ko is being marginalized in the media as well as in the Legislature with Ko being out of the news cycle.  His poor rating in the latest TVBS poll is part of this downward drop.  DPP Prez Tsai is fearful that the New Tide faction will come after her once DPP Prez Lai takes over.  A Tsai-Ko alliance would be a good offensive-defensive alliance mostly against the new DPP administration. 

“Come after her” how?

[jaichind]

DPP Prez Tsai meets with TPP Chairperson Ko for over 2 hours.  Ko gifts Tsai a box of "small grass" which is also the name of the pro-TPP youth grassroots organization.

What is taking place is clear.  TPP Ko is being marginalized in the media as well as in the Legislature with Ko being out of the news cycle.  His poor rating in the latest TVBS poll is part of this downward drop.  DPP Prez Tsai is fearful that the New Tide faction will come after her once DPP Prez Lai takes over.  A Tsai-Ko alliance would be a good offensive-defensive alliance mostly against the new DPP administration. 

“Come after her” how?

Mostly going after the Tsai faction and the Tsai legacy.  The incoming Lai administration is fairly weak (40% of the popular vote, a minority in the legislature, and the latest TVBS poll approval of 43%) so it has an incentive to throw the Tsai faction but not Tsai personally under the bus.  The Tsai faction has always been a palace faction and was formed only as a result of Tsai becoming DPP Chairperson in 2008.  The Tsai faction will become very vulnerable once it is out of power.  There are already signs of the New Tide faction going after some members of the Tsai faction in the leadup to the cabinet formation by attacking some of the policy decisions and effectiveness of key Tsai faction people in the administration today.

[jaichind]

KMT mayor of Taichung Lu, KMT mayor of Taipei Chiang, and DPP mayor Chen of Kaoshiung are clearly on the top as far as chances of becoming Prez in 2028 or 2032.  We can sort of do a back-of-the-envelope calculation of the odds of those 3 becoming Prez.

At this stage, there is well over a 90% chance the KMT will end up running Lu in 2028.  I figure DPP Prez Lai has a 60/40 shot at winning re-election.   In that case, in 2032 there will be well over a 90% chance that Chiang will run for KMT in 2032.  That that scenario I figure there is around a 70% chance Chen will run for DPP in 2032 (the other 30% being DPP VP elect Hsiao.)  And in such an election in 2032, the chances of a Chiang victory are around 90%.  If DPP Lai loses in 2028 to Lu then there is a well over 90% chance that Chen will be the DPP candidate to run against Lu in 2032 with around 25% chance of winning.

With that said we can now estimate the chances of any of the three becoming Prez
a) Lu -> 40%- her only chance is 2028
b) Chiang -> 60% * 90% = 54% -> his only chance is in 2032 if Lu loses in 2028
c) Chen -> 70% * 60% * 10% (against Chiang) + 40%*25% (against Lu) = 14% -> his chance is in 2028 either against Chiang in an open race or against Lu in her re-election

Right now the most likely route is still a narrow Lai re-election in 2028 followed by a decisive Chiang win in 2032.   And it seems the biggest loser by Lai winning in 2024 on the DPP side could end up being Chen since his chances of actually winning in 2032 in either scenario is not great.

[jaichind]

Former KMT Prez Ma will make his second visit to the Mainland in a couple of days.  It is almost certain he will meet Xi during his trip which will include several days in Beijing.

Given the fact that the elections are over the DPP is not even making a big deal of it.   The DPP right now is too busy with intrafactional battles over the allocation positions in the new cabinet.  The shift of  power within the DPP from the Tsai faction to the New Tide faction is pretty much eating all the oxygen within the DPP

Both Ma and Xi will most likely take advantage of their meeting to push the narrative that the 2008-2016 period under Ma was an era of good progress between the PRC and ROC as opposed to the disastrous 2016-2024 under the DPP rule on ROC.

Xi might also deliver a message which will give some clues about how he will handle the new DPP Lai administration. 

[jaichind]

Congratulations to Lai, Hsiao, the DPP, and the people of Taiwan! Who will/might Lai name as premier?

鄭文燦(Cheng Wen-Tsan) - Former mayor of Taoyuan and now Deputy PM.  Is part of the Northern New Tide faction and is also close to DPP Prez Tsai.  The main problem is persistent issues related to various sex tapes.

潘孟安(Pan Men-an) - Former county magistrate of Pingdong County

卓榮泰(Cho Jung-tai) - Former DPP Prez and various key roles in the DPP.  Close to DPP Prez Tsai.

鄭麗君(Cheng Li-Chun) - Former minister of Cultural

I think 卓榮泰(Cho Jung-tai)  is the most likely a good transition figure from DPP Prez Tsai to the new DPP Prez Lai.  Tsai and Lai are and still are rivals and getting someone from the Tsai faction will avoid DPP civil war on the preception that the New Tide faction is trying to get all toe plum roles.

Latest news is that, like I predicted, DPP Prez election Lai will go with 卓榮泰(Cho Jung-tai)  as PM and 鄭麗君(Cheng Li-Chun)  as DPM. 

If so 卓榮泰(Cho Jung-tai) is most likely a transition figure since it is clear this is about DPP Prez election Lai need to keep the Tsai faction on board with his administration.  Once Lai gains greater control of DPP once DPP Prez Tsai is out most likely he will put in someone of his chooosing. 

[jaichind]

Former KMT Prez Ma meets with Xi part of his trip to the Mainland

[jaichind]

It seems DPP Prez elect Lai announced the new DPP cabinet at the same time as the Ma-Xi meeting to try to steal their thunder.  This seems pretty childish but it is up to him to do what makes sense to him.

[jaichind]

DPP Prez election Lai's choice of PM seems, for now, to have proven the KMT, TPP, PRC, and USA wrong.  All of them pinned Lai as some sort of out-of-control hothead with the USA putting a lot of pressure on DPP Prez Tsai to keep Lai under control during the election.  So now it seems Lai might be fairly moderate in his leadership approach which would make him Tsai II, which would be ideal for the USA, and fairly positive for his re-election campaign in 2028.   If so the KMT and TPP might need to rethink how to take on a DPP Prez Lai. 

[jaichind]

Ma-Xi talks were pretty much trying to show a way out for DPP Prez elect Lai.

Ma talked about the key of ROC in Chinese history and that ROC still exists.  Ma also focused on Chinese nationalism and the common historical and cultural heritage of both sides. 

Xi did not talk about unification or mention the PRC at all.  He said that both sides are Chinese and that even though the two sides have different systems both the Mainland and Taiwan belonged to the same country.

This meeting is trying to reframe the 92 Consensus as a way to break the current PRC-ROC deadlock, especially with the DPP at the helm of ROC, and make an offer to the DPP Prez elect on on away to restore dialogue between the two sides.  Most likely Lai would not take it (he has to consider the core DPP vote).

 

[jaichind]

A bunch of local by-elections as a result of some MLAs and township/village heads being elected as MPs.   Most of the ground is favorable to KMT.  KMT flips one MLA in a lean-DPP district but overall status quo.  TPP vote was way behind the TPP Ko vote which shows that the TPP Ko vote was unique and mostly not transferable to TPP.

Yunlin County 虎尾鎮 (Huwei Township) head

KMT township head was elected MP

The 2024 Prez vote here was
DPP Lai    39.2%
KMT Hou  32.4%
TPP Ko     28.4%

Township head by-election

KMT is much stronger here at the local level and the election became one of KMT Chang faction vs KMT non-Chang faction with TPP also split in which of the two to support and the DPP candidate marginalized.  The KMT Chang faction is in control of the county government.

Pro-KMT   50.2% (backed by KMT, KMT Chang faction, and Ko)
Pro-KMT   37.6% (backed by non-Chang faction KMT and other key non-Ko TPP leaders)
DPP          11.7%



Yunlin County 麥寮鄉(Mailiao township) head

DPP rebel township head was arrested for corruption and vote-buying

The 2024 Prez vote was
DPP Lai     35.7%
TPP Ko      33.7%
KMT Hou   30.6%

The local vote, unusually, is more pro-DPP than at the national level.  Many key local leaders are from the DPP.    The DPP in 2022 ran a former DPP township head (2014-2018) but lost to a DPP rebel.  This time around the DPP decided to not nominate anyone but to call for a free vote.   The KMT decided to nominate a DPP rebel as its candidate while TPP nominated its 2022 pro-TPP candidate.

2024 township head by-election
Pro-DPP     48.7% (former DPP township head, ran in 2022 as DPP)
KMT          35.3% (ran in 2022 as DPP rebel)
TPP           11.0%
Pro-DPP      4.9%  (pro-DPP MLA)

2022 township head election
DPP rebel   24.6% (arrested for vote buying corruption)
DPP           22.2% (former township head and run as pro-DPP in 2024)
KMT          21.2%
DPP rebel   19.0% (run in 2024 as KMT)
pro-TPP     12.9%  (run in 2024 as TPP)



Miaoli County 苗栗市(Miaoli City) mayor

KMT mayor was elected MP

2024 Prez vote was
KMT Hou    47.1%
TPP Ko       29.7%
DPP Lai      23.2%

2024 mayor by-election
KMT           62,0%
DPP            33.0%
pro-TPP        5.9%


Taidong Countg 大武鄉 (Dawu township)

KMT township head was elected MP

2024 Prez vote was
KMT Hou   55.8%
DPP Lai     22.5%
TPP Ko      21.7%

The KMT is much more powerful here at the local level and the election became a battle of two KMT faction with the KMT formally backing one as the KMT candidate.

2024 township head by-election
KMT          57.0%
KMT rebel  39.9%
DPP            3.1%


Yilan County 員山鄉 (Yuanshan Township)

The DPP MLA for this area was elected MP

The 2024 Prez vote was
DPP Lai     48.1%
TPP Ko      26.1%
KMT Hou   25.8%

This town has a clear DPP lean but the KMT-backed candidate won despite a split in the Pan-Blue vote
The 2024 county legislature by-election
Pro-KMT    45.4% (backed by KMT)
Pro-DPP     42.7% (backed by DPP)
Pro-KMT    11.2%
Pro-KMT      0.7%


There was another by-election for a Taichung city assembly in one of the Aborgine districts when its KMT MLA was elected MP.  It was an all-KMT affair where KMT nominated 2 candidates and fought each other as well as various other pro-Blue candidates.