2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

KMT nominates Hou.  Guo came out to support this decision and promises to support Hou in the general election.  There are still some disgruntled pro-Guo elements in the KMT.  A pro-Guo member of the KMT Central Committee complained that the KMT polls had Hou with a 2%-3% lead which is within the margin of error.  The pro-Guo KMT Nantou Speaker of the County Assembly threatened to quit the KMT and become pro-KMT independent.  But overall the Guo blowback failed to materialize, unlike 2020.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

From what I understand, Hou is a lot more electable than Gou, as he can appeal to more people outside of the KMT base.

[jaichind]

From what I understand, Hou is a lot more electable than Gou, as he can appeal to more people outside of the KMT base.

Correct.  But Guo has more money.  If Guo can appeal to the same number of voters as Hou then clearly Gou is the better choice.  Just like in the USA, in ROC one can spend as much of his/her own money on his/her campaign.  That includes spending for the party he/she is running for.  So if KMT nominates Guo then Guo pretty much pays for the entire 2024 KMT campaign.  Guo's ability and desire to pay for the 2024 KMT campaign now will diminish but will for sure be significant.

[jaichind]

It was expected but the ROC Fraternity of Retired Police Officers (which traditionally leans Blue anyway) came out to say they will go all out to back Hou.  Hou was the head of the New Taipei City police before entering politics and used to be the head of the ROC Fraternity of Retired Police Officers.

On the ROC, especially in rural areas, the police and retired police have the broadest grassroots network.  Hou now has at his disposal a very large local network for intelligence gathering on top of the KMT organization.

[jaichind]

Now that KMT has nominated Hou with no blowback from Gou and Ko will run for TPP my guess right now would be something like

KMT Hou     40
DPP Lai       38
TPP Ko        22

The race is really neck-to-neck and could go either way

Ko will either be >20 or <10.  For now, I will assume that Ko will stay about 20.  If Ko falls below 10 I expect that Hou will win by at least 5 as Lai has a high floor but a low ceiling.

If Ko stays about above 20 then I expect the legislative race to be


PR (34)                         KMT       DPP      TPP      NPP      TSP
                                     14          13         7         0         0

TPP surge cuts into NPP vote while pro-independence  PR vote shifts to DPP undermining TSP.   


District(73)                   KMT+     DPP

Special municipalities
Taipei City (臺北市)           6            2 <- DPP only retains Taipei 2nd and 4th
New Taipei City (新北市)    7            5 <- KMT Hou will lead to small KMT overperformance
Taoyuan City (桃園市)       6            0 <- A couple will be very close
Taichung City(臺中市)        5            3 <- most of them will be very close
Tainan City (臺南市)          0            6
Kaohsiung City (高雄市)     0            8 <- KMT will fall short of flipping back Kaohsiung 3rd

Taiwan Province
Keelung City (基隆市)        1            0
Hsinchu City(新竹市)         1            0 <- will be a fun 3-way or 4-way battle again
Hsinchu County (新竹縣)   2             0
Maioli County (苗栗縣)       2            0
Changhua County(彰化縣)  3            1  <- all 4 might end up close
Nanto County(南投縣)        2            0  <- I assume KMT can flip back Nanto 2nd
Yunlin County(雲林縣)        1            1 <- KMT Chang faction will make their mark
Jiayi City(嘉義市)               0            1
Jaiyi County(嘉義縣)          0            2
Pingdong County(屏東縣)   0            2
Yilan County(宜蘭縣)          0            1 <- KMT could spring a surprise
Penghu County(澎湖縣)       1           0  <- lot of local factors at play but for now KMT flip
Hualian County(花蓮縣)      1            0
Taidong County(臺東縣)      1            0 <- local factors might allow DPP to hold this seat

Fujian Province
Kinmen County(金門縣)      1            0
Lianjiang County(連江縣)   1             0
 
Total District                   41           32

                                    KMT+        DPP
Aborigine seats(6)     
Plains                             2              1  <- DPP retains their seat
Mountains                       2              1  <- DPP retains their seat
 
Total Aborigine                4               2

                                 KMT+        DPP       TPP       NPP       TSP
Total                             59           47          7          0          0

Narrow KMT+ majority.  If DPP Lai pulls off a victory, then flip around 7-8 seats from KMT to DPP which  would be a hung legislature with TPP holding the balance of power.

[jaichind]

PRC-ROC positions of the 2024 candidates

First, DPP Tsai's position would be anti-PRC "Two China" position.

KMT Hou - anti-Independence but also anti-"One Country Two System"  and dodges the "92 Consensus" (which rules him out as a pure One China position like Guo) => this maps to a hybrid One China Two China position similar to the 1996 KMT Lee and 2000 KMT Lien campaigns.

DPP Lai - Oppose 92 Consensus and Taiwan is de facto independent so no need for independence.  Anti-CCP but not anti-China.  Want independent Taiwan to be a fraternal state (like between UK and USA) to PRC.    In theory "One China One Taiwan" but slowly shifting to DPP Tsai's anti-PRC "Two China" position.

TPP Ko - Oppose '92 Consensus" but insists that Mainland China and Taiwan are part of the same family.  Insist on dialogue and compromise with PRC as the only way out of the logjam.  This maps to a pro-PRC "Two China" position

If Lai continues his shift toward a DPP Prez Tsai anti-PRC "Two China" position (nudged by DPP Prez Tsai and USA) then this election might see the narrowest spectrum of top candidates on the PRC-ROC issue.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko is uniquely optimized to capture pro-Green urban progressive youth from DPP Lai which has his base in the rural South.  KMT Hou is uniquely optimized to capture older light Green voters from DPP Lai.  The problem for KMT Hou is that TPP Ko is also taking some light blue your urban voters as well.

If Ko's support declines to below 10% which removes any chances at victory then the pro-Green urban progressive your most likely will not vote but the light blue urban youth will likely tactically vote for KMT Hou.   This is why I rate this race as neck-to-neck if TPP Ko stays about 20% but clearly lean toward KMT Hou if TPP Ko falls below 10%

The campaign will become a battle for the KMT to marginalize TPP Ko without angering his supporters.

[jaichind]

How to accommodate Gou becomes the new problem for the KMT.  There are ideas like having Guo be VP candidate or having Guo head the KMT list on the PR slate and in case of a KMT legislative majority have Guo become Speaker.  None of these ideas sound that good and does not play to Guo's strengths. 

[jaichind]

First post-Hou nomination poll from TVBS

KMT Hou   30
DPP Lai     27
TPP Ko      22

Frankly, the Hou lead is less than I expected.  I would have expected Hou to get a 5-7 point lead which over the next couple of months will fall to a virtual tie with Lai.  We might need some time for the Hou bounce to build so have to look at some of the other polls like Ettoady or UDN when they come out.  But if this is the Hou bounce then I would say that Lai might be the slight favorite to win right now unless Ko has some sort of implosion.  TPP Ko still above 20 during the KMT Hou bounce is a very ominous sign for the KMT.

[jaichind]

A really fishy poll from Deep Green SNTN.  They do polling rarely and most of them are usually during election season and always have DPP within the margin of error in races that it is obviously way behind.  Anyway they have

DPP Lai       29.8
KMT  Hou    29.2
TPP Ko        20.8

This is actually pretty reasonable for a poll with a very strong DPP house effect.  But they then asked about a Hou-Guo ticket and got

KMT Hou-Guo    38.5
DPP Lai             29.6
TPP Ko              16.1

which has the message that getting Guo on the ticket will eat a lot of TPP votes.  I am skeptical of this assertion and seem like a trick poll from SNTN to get the KMT to put Guo as the VP candidate.  That way the DPP can attack Guo the entire campaign over his money and connections to CPP with his business on the Mainland.  There are DPP renegade sources that say that the DPP has a massive "file" on Guo to attack him with and I guess SNTN wants to try to make sure that the DPP gets to use that file.

[jaichind]

Crosstabs for the TVBS poll which was

KMT Hou   30
DPP Lai     27
TPP Ko      22
              
                        Men    Women
KMT Hou   30      31         29
DPP Lai     27      30         24
TPP Ko      22      25         20

Old pan-Blue edge with women voters remain


                         20s      30s       40s      50s       60+
KMT Hou   30      26       19         29        36        35
DPP Lai     27      22       28         25        34        27
TPP Ko      22      43       36         31        17         6

Ko is the youth candidate while Hou is the candidate of the elderly.  Given turnout patterns Ko would want a super high turnout election while Hou would want a low turnout election.


                      no high      high        technical                   graduate
                      school      school         school      college      school
KMT Hou   30     26          35               43            27             22
DPP Lai     27     30          31               17            26             24
TPP Ko      22       5          21              24             33             39

Ko is the high education candidate

 
                         Greater     Greater       Greater         Greater        Greater
                          Taipei       Taoyuan      Taichung        Tainan        Kaoshiung
KMT Hou   30        31            35                29                28               20
DPP Lai     27        28            25                20                30               38
TPP Ko      22        24            23                24                23               21

Interesting that Ko is cutting into Hou's home area of Greater Taipei but also cutting into Lai's home base of Greater Tainan.


                          KMT        DPP       TPP      NPP        TSP        Neutral        Other
KMT Hou   30        80           8          13        5           3              23             19
DPP Lai     27          3         77            4       45         78             18               8
TPP Ko      22        11           8          79       30         14             23              14

Ko cuts into Lai's vote with NPP but cuts into Hou with Neutral and Other voter IDs which traditionally lean toward KMT





2-way

KMT Hou   48
DPP Lai     37


                          Men      Women
KMT Hou   48       50           45
DPP Lai     37       38           35

KMT's traditional gender gap edge with women disappears in a 2-way race.  I guess more progressive youth women that are with Ko would go to Lai if Ko did not run.


                         20s        30s        40s        50s       60+
KMT Hou   48      54         45          55          48        42
DPP Lai     37      38         43          34          41        32

Without Ko in the race age as a factor mostly disappears.  In 2020 Han was a very poor fit for youth voters and Tsai was a very good fit for youth voters.  In 2024 these factors seem to have inverted mostly because of the poor perception of Lai with the youth.


                      no high      high        technical                   graduate
                      school      school         school      college      school      
KMT Hou   48     32          50               67            51            48
DPP Lai     37     36          39               26            37            43

Without Ko in the race, the old pattern of DPP being stronger with those with the lowest and those with the highest education reasserts itself.


                         Greater     Greater       Greater         Greater        Greater
                          Taipei       Taoyuan      Taichung        Tainan        Kaoshiung
KMT Hou   48        48             52               51                46                 39
DPP Lai     37        39             35               29                41                 45

Hou's clear overperformance in the Deep South but underperformance in Greater Taipei is part of his appeal to light green voters but has issues with part of the core KMT base.  In many ways, Hou is KMT's Tsai.  In 2016 and 2020 DPP Tsai clearly appealed to many light blue voters.
                    
                          KMT        DPP       TPP      NPP        TSP        Neutral        Other
KMT Hou   48        94          11         70       17           13           43              32
DPP Lai     37          4          86         21       75           83           28              19

TPP breaking 70-21 for Hou speaks to the fact that TPP is now a de facto light blue party but also speaks to the poot fit Lai is for youth voters.  Hou has no special appeal to youth voters and with Ko in the race most of the large lead with youth voters most of which are light blue and/or TPP voters disappears when they go over to Ko.

[jaichind]

KMT nominating Hou means that for the first time since 1996, the KMT would have nominated a Hoklo vs a Mainlander.  In theory, Lien of 2000 and 2004 is a Hoklo but he was born on the Mainland and had a mainlander mother.  Lien's grandfather was a famous Chinese nationalist and historian of Taiwan.  He got fed up with the Japanese occupation and moved to the Mainland where his son, Lien's father, became a general in the ROC armed forces.  In a similar war in theory Tsai is a Hakka but if you talked to her in the 1990s before she became famous one would be certain that she came from a wealthy Mainland family.    In 2024 for the first time, all 3 major party candidates are Hoklo.  Given the fact that Hoklos form over 70% of the population of Taiwan province, this fact shows the enduring power of Mainlanders in ROC politics.

[jaichind]

Given how much then-famous doctor Ko was involved in Deep Green politics in the mid-2000s it is a shock to have him run as a de facto light blue candidate for Prez leading a de facto light blue party in 2024.  It would be like saying to someone today that in 2040 Ben Shapiro will lead a moderate socially liberal and moderate fiscally liberal third party as the Prez candidate and run a campaign to the Right of the Dems but well to the Left of the GOP.  The response would be "What?!"

[jaichind]

It seems Hou's strategy for dealing with the One China Two China "92 Consensus" issue is to bypass it by saying that he will base his decisions "on the ROC Constitution."    That will take care of Deep Blue since the ROC Constitution is clearly a "One China" Constitution but avoiding saying that is for "92 Consensus" saves him from the DPP attack that "92 Conesusu" is the gateway and is the same as "One Country, Two Systems" which they effectively used in 2016 and 2020.

[jaichind]

The latest UDN poll is ominous for Hou.  He lost ground after being drafted by the KMT.  Chang from April poll

DPP Lai   28 (+1)
KMT Hou 24 (-5)
TPP Ko    22 (-1)

Hou has only 70% of the KMT vote.  Other demographics are pretty consistent with other polls with Hou stronger with the elderly and Ko stronger with youth.  The only saving grace for Hou is that Lai did not go up and Hou's fall is mostly about the pro-Guo vote shifting to undecided.

We will have to see if Guo rallies around Hou.  If so then we should see a Hou bounce.  If Guo does not rally around Hou or if there is no Hou bounce after that then he is in trouble. 

Frankly, these last 2 weeks were not that good for Lai with more DPP scandals. The sitting DPP MP for Yilan had to call off his run for re-election over his being involved in a scam and there are other blowups. For Hou to lose ground during this last mouth is not a good sign for him.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

So there's a real change that Ko can win?

[jaichind]

So there's a real change that Ko can win?

I doubt it but there is a stronger and stronger chance that he will stay above 20% and make this a real 3-way race.

Ko's goal should be to poll above 25% over the next 3-4 months.  I said this before.  If Ko goes below 20% he will fall quickly to below 10%.  Polling above 25% minimizes this risk.

Hou's goal should be to poll above 30% in 1-2 months and he has to poll above 35% by late 2023.  If not more likely than not Ko will for sure go above 25% and most likely sink Hou's chances.

[jaichind]

Ko is now on the move to try to get dissident pan-Green votes by visiting former DPP Prez Chen


Ko and Chen were and still are quite close. Back when Ko was a Deep Green doctor he worked very closely on the Chen campaign and other pro-Chen activities.  He led a team of all Deep Green doctors that was key to helping "prove" that Chen needed "medical parole" from being jailed for corruption.  These days  DPP Prez Chen has reasons to be unhappy with DPP Prez candidate Lai.  Given the various recent DPP corruption blowups, DPP Prez Lai is pushing for a law that bars those who are convicted of money laundering from running for office.  If passed that will bar former DPP Prez Chen's son from running for office again once he gets out of jail.

[jaichind]

DPP pushes through a new law in the legislature that bars people who have been convicted of money laundering from ever running for office.  DPP Prez candidate and Chairperson of DPP Lai is behind this to try to show that the DPP is anti-corruption given the endless trickle of local DPP corruption cases blowing up one after another.  This will bar former DPP Prez Chen's son from running for office again when he is released from prison for money laundry.  There will be blowback from former DPP Prez Chen but the fact that DPP Prez candidate Lai is not afraid shows how much former DPP Prez Chen's influence has waned over the years.

[jaichind]

https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202305260010

"Ko Wen-je may be Beijing's preference in 2024 Taiwan race: Scholar"

Sounds like  DPP plant story to drive Deep Blue votes to Ko. True, CCP does seem to have soft spot for Ko but from a pure ideological point of view they clearly prefer Hou even if they would like Guo more.

[ericpolitico]

@JAICHIND

VEEPSTAKES

Who do you think will be the vice presidential runningmates for Lai, Hou, and Dr Ko? and does it really matter?

[jaichind]

@JAICHIND

VEEPSTAKES

Who do you think will be the vice presidential runningmates for Lai, Hou, and Dr Ko? and does it really matter?

DPP Lai - it has to be a woman as per DPP tradition of gender balance on the Prez ticket.  Likely choices are

Current ROC representative to the USA Former DPP MP of Hualian 蕭美琴(Hsiao Bi-khim).  She is American on her mother's side.  She is close to  DPP Prez Tsai so picking her would be an olive branch from Lai to Tsai.


Former DPP PR MP 鄭麗君(Cheng Li-chun) and now current DPP appointed Deputy head of the ROC cultural agency The General Association of Chinese Culture.  She was Minister of Culture under the first DPP Tsai administration



KMT Hou.

Clearly, there is still a chance of a Hou-Guo ticket.  Assuming it is not Guo then most likely it is former KMT PR MP 柯志恩(Ko Chih-en) and now Deputy General Secretary of the KMT.   Her father was the KMT county magistrate of Pingdong County back in the 1970s and she ran unsuccessfully for the mayor of Kaoshiung in 2022.   The main problem with this choice is that Ko is also Hoklo and this will break with the KMT tradition of Hoklo-Mainlander balance on the ticket



TPP Ko

Clearly, Ko would want Guo to be on his ticket.  If he could not pull that off then most likely it is former PFP MP and de facto TPP candidate for Taipei Mayor in 2022 黃珊珊 (Huang Shan-shan).   Huang had a deep Blue background but shifted to light blue last decade.  She has some connections with DPP Prez Tsai where in 2016 DPP Prez candidate Tsai choose not to nominate a candidate in her Deep Blue district to have her, running for PFP, to have a clear run against the KMT incumbent.  It failed but showed the cross-partisan appeal of Huang.

[jaichind]

Recent developments

a) Bad news for Hou.  It does not seem Guo is falling around Hou and is instead playing footsie with Ko.  Most likely this is a ploy to gain more concessions from the KMT but in the meantime, this puts the Hou campaign in a difficult situation.

b) Bad news for Lai.  The DPP scandals keep on exploding.  After the issue of the DPP Yilan MP being involved in a fraud group and having to drop out of running for re-election, it seems there is sexual harassment scandal where the member women's wing of the DPP office claims that the DPP high command suppressed her complaints of sexual harassment 9 months ago.  The fact these scandals are blowing up now during the DPP "primary" for candidates for MP shows that they are mostly about various DPP factions scoring points against each other in their jostle for nomination slots for MP.  In the meantime, Lai is getting hurt badly by all these explosions.

[jaichind]

Sign, the DPP sexual harassment scandal is moving in a typical fashion.  As soon as the first case blows up now there are multiple women who came forward from various DPP local administrations or DPP party organisations saying they have been harassed and their complaints were suppressed.   This is par for the course.  I am skeptical that even half of those coming forward are true and that is speaking as a anti-DPP partisan.

[Octowakandi]

Interesting situation with both main parties having scandals. What’s Ko’s endgame? He keeps running with no chance to be President. Does he want a Cabinet seat? Does he want to be bought into the KMT?