2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

Out of curiosity, why is the ROC way less Christian than South Korea, and presumably Mainland China in percentage?

First, the % of people who are Christian is about the same in PRC as in ROC (3%-5%).  The reason why that ratio is higher in ROK (30%-35%) is that Christianity was a way for the Koreans to resist Nipponization during the 1910-1945 period when the Japanese cracked down on anything overtly Korean in nature. 

Such conditions did not exist in the Government-General of Tawain during the era of Japanese occupation from 1895-1945.   The Japanese viewed the Government-General of Tawain as a non-core territory much like the USA will view Puerto Rico where they are glad to allow it to have cultural autonomy.  The Japanese view toward Korea is to make it a core Japanese territory and would be more like how the USA would view New Mexico after 1848 (we are here to stay in the long run so there is going to be assimilation).   

The  Japanese tolerated parties like TPP (namesake of Ko's party) in the 1920s which was a de facto KMT branch in the Government-General of Tawain.  TPP back then was about promoting Chinese cultural in theory but everyone knew their real agenda was getting Taiwan to reunite with China. The Japanese sort of turned a blind eye to this as long as the TPP still accepted Japanese authority.  Ironically during this period, it was the CCP and JCP that were for Taiwan's independence from both Japan and China arguing that the Taiwanese had a unique and separate identity. 

One way or another the main focus of Japanese assimilation efforts was directed at Korea.

[jaichind]

Some data analysis from ROC elections past

I was watching a ROC political talk show a couple of weeks back and the discussion turned to the 2000 election given the fact that 2024 will most likely see a 3-way battle like in 2000.

2000
DPP Chen             39.30%
proto-PFP Soong   36.84%
KMT Lien             23.10%
DPP rebel Hsu        0.63%
NP Lee                  0.13%

After 2000 KMT and PFP formed an alliance in 2004 with Lien-Sung taking on DPP Chen who won by a tiny margin for re-election.

2004
DPP Chen                 50.10%
KMT-PFP Lien-Soong  49.90%

Note that in 2004 DPP Chen was most likely headed to defeat by something like 53-47 when he was shot the day before the election which created a sympathy wave for him to narrowly win.   One way or another 2004 Chen was getting a significant swing from 2000.

The commentator was saying that in 2000 there was a large anti-incumbent anti-KMT sentiment and that Soong won a good part of that anti-incumbent vote.   The commentator indicates that CW says that in 2004 DPP Chen gained a lot from the 2000 KMT Lien vote but in reality, he most likely gained from the 2000 proto-PFP Soong vote even though in 2000 Soong was running on the Deep Blue line while KMT Lien was running on the Light Blue line.  The idea is that 2000 Soong gained a bunch of anti-KMT votes in 2000 which went to DPP Chen in 2004 as opposed to the 2000 KMT Lien light blue vote going to Chen in 2004.

I was curious if the commentator was correct or if the CW is correct so I did a regression of the 2000 vs 2004 by township.

I regression on
a) what % of the 2000 DPP rebel Hsu vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
b) what % of the 2000 proto-PFP Soong vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
c) what % of the 2000 KMT Lien vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
d) what % of the 2000 DPP Chen vote swung away from DPP Chen in 2004

First I conclude that across the board 87% of the 2000 DPP rebel Hsu vote went to DPP Chen in 2004 even though Hsu himself endorsed KMT-PFP Lien-Soong ticket in 2004.  In 2000 Hsu only won significant votes in a few towns in his home county of 桃園縣(Taoyuan County) (now City) and that seems to be part of the DPP vote there that went back to 2004 DPP Chen.

As for the others, I broke out the ROC into the following regions based on looking at the swing data
a) 台北市 (Taipei City) - Chen was mayor there from 1994-1998
b) Fujian Island Counties - Deep Blue
c) Towns where the Aboriginal population was above 70% - Deep Blue
d) Pro-Soong rural counties - 南投縣(Nanto County), 嘉義縣(Chiayi County), 臺中縣(Taichung County), 雲林縣(Yunlin County), 宜蘭縣(Yilan County), 澎湖縣(Penghu County) - When Soong was governor of Taiwan Province in 1994-1998 he built a lot of connections with key factions in these rural counties.
e) The Rest

What I found is that CW is actually correct

a) 台北市 (Taipei City)
   1) 0% of the 2000 Proto-PFP Soong vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   2) 30% of the 2000 KMT Lien vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   3) 3% of the 2000 DPP Chen vote went to 2004 KMT-PFP Lien-Soong

b) Fujian Island Counties  
   1) 0% of the 2000 Proto-PFP Soong vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   2) 15% of the 2000 KMT Lien vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   3) 0% of the 2000 DPP Chen vote went to 2004 KMT-PFP Lien-Soong

c) Aboriginal
   1) 3% of the 2000 Proto-PFP Soong vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   2) 15% of the 2000 KMT Lien vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   3) 0% of the 2000 DPP Chen vote went to 2004 KMT-PFP Lien-Soong

d) Pro-Soong rural counties
   1) 15% of the 2000 Proto-PFP Soong vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   2) 37% of the 2000 KMT Lien vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   3) 0% of the 2000 DPP Chen vote went to 2004 KMT-PFP Lien-Soong

e) Rest
   1) 1% of the 2000 Proto-PFP Soong vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   2) 43% of the 2000 KMT Lien vote went to 2004 DPP Chen
   3) 0% of the 2000 DPP Chen vote went to 2004 KMT-PFP Lien-Soong

So overall the CW thinking is correct.  The 2000 KMT Lien vote was light blue and the local faction vote many of which defected to 2004 DPP Chen in non-Deep Blue areas.  In 2000 DPP Chen outperformed in 台北市 (Taipei City) when he was mayor in 1994-1998 which slightly reversed itself in 2004.  In pro-Soong rural counties, more of the local faction vote went to proto-PFP Soong instead of KMT Lien and they went to 2004 DPP Chen.

This analysis seems to indicate that in 2000 there was no significant anti-KMT vote that went to proto-PFP Soong instead of DPP Chen but swung to DPP Chen in 2004.  Instead, it seems that between proto-PFP Soong and KMT Lien, they scooped up most of the light blue and local faction vote (these two groups are overlapping) with more of it going to the KMT Lien outside a few rural counties that had strong connections to Soong when he was Taiwan Province governor in 1994-1998.  This bloc of voters was targeted by DPP Chen in 2004 using the power of incumbency creating a swing needed for DPP Chen to narrowly win re-election.

[jaichind]

TVBS poll on Blue +3 Taipei 4th district.  

In the race are DPP's maverick rising superstar and incumbent 高嘉瑜 (Kao Chia-Yu), KMT's former MP and current MLA 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu) and TSP's 吳欣岱(Wu Hsin-Tai) who was the runner up in the Taipei city assembly election last year and running as the Deep Green alternative to Kao.  All 3 candidates are women.

Kao has great appeal to light blue and light green voters and in 2016 in a 1-on-1 race was able to defeat KMT incumbent Lee 50.1 to 47.4 in this Blue +3 district despite Lee's clear personal strength in this district on the DPP Tsai urban wave in 2020 when Tsai won 53.6%.  Lee 2022 ran in the Taipei assembly and won a massive personal vote in this district which prepared her for a rematch with Kao to get her seat back.

Kao's appeal to the light blue and light green voters had made her an enemy of the Deep Green crowd who help push TSP's Wu to run as the Deep Green alternative.

TVBS poll has

KMT 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu)     44
DPP 高嘉瑜 (Kao Chia-yu)      27
TSP 吳欣岱(Wu Hsin-Tai)        13

The party breakdown is interesting
          
                                                    DPP          KMT        TPP       NPP       TSP        Ind       Minor
                                                   (29%)       (25%)    (15%)     (5%)     (2%)    (19%)    (6%)
KMT 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu)     44       16            90           36         16         31         39         40
DPP 高嘉瑜 (Kao Chia-yu)      27       38             6           46          56          4         22         16
TSP 吳欣岱(Wu Hsin-Tai)        13      29              0            7           11        57        10            9

Note how Kao has greater support from light blue TPP and light green NPP than with the DPP base.  Lee outperforms across the board given her personal roots in this district.

The same poll for Prez has

DPP Lai      32
TPP Ko       26
KMT Hou    26

Given this district is Blue +3 this would imply that all ROC should be something like

DPP Lai      35
TPP Ko       25
KMT Hou    24

Which would be a very solid result for DPP Lai.

A breakdown of MP votes by Prez support would be

                                                   DPP Lai      TPP Ko      KMT Hou     Undecided
                                                     (32%)       (26%)        (26%)         (16%)
KMT 李彥秀(Lee Yen-Hsiu)     44         16             37             88               41
DPP 高嘉瑜 (Kao Chia-yu)      27        36             43               6               17
TSP 吳欣岱(Wu Hsin-Tai)        13        34              5                4                2
Undecided                            15       15             15               2               40

Again, the DPP Lai vote is evenly split between DPP Kao and TSP Wu sounds like a Kao disaster and exactly what the Deep Green had in mind when they ran TSP Wu in the race to "get" Kao.

Note that only 2% of undecided are going for Deep Green TSP Wu means that most of the undecided clearly lean Blue and even if there are lean Green voters there they are clearly light green.  That data would give DPP Lai some pause since this means his ROC-wide implied 35 could be close to his cap in this race.

On the flip side, only 2% of KMT Hou supporters are undecided which means KMT Lee is most likely close to her cap as well.

One last point.  TSP's Wu can win by losing.  If TSP Wu's run does split the Pan-Green vote and let KMT Lee back in then KMT Lee would give up her Taipei assembly seat.  As the best runner-up in the 2022 assembly election in this district then TSP Wu would actually become the next MLA in this district once KMT Lee wins and takes her MP spot back.

[jaichind]

By the way he is talking TPP, Ko seems to be warming up to talks with KMT to cooperate against the DPP in the upcoming election.  I really doubt this will go anywhere.  Given Ko's personality and 2024 being his best chance of becoming Prez I do not see why he will back down.  For KMT's survival, I do not know why the KMT will back down.  I suspect any talks will be mainly at the legislative level and for the Prez race it will be everyone for themselves even though that mostly means DPP Lai wins.

[jaichind]

The latest TVBS poll has a shift toward DPP Lai away from TPP Ko which is not unexpected given the media attention to his visit to the USA.  The fact that he is being treated "well" by the Washington officials implies that they "endorse" DPP Lai as a non-trouble maker when it comes to PRC-ROC relations.  This will help Lai consolidate some of the light Green votes.

What is a surprise is that KMT Hou also lost ground since July.

DPP Lai    37(+4)
TPP Ko     28(-4)
KMT Hou  22(-3)

This poll sample does seem to be more green-leaning.  By party ID with the shift from July

DPP    28 (+2)
KMT    21(-4)
TPP     16 (--)
NPP      4 (--)
TSP      2 (-1)
Ind.    21 (+4)
Others  9 (-1)

The decline of KMT party ID could be part of the shift away from KMT Hou or it is a more pro-Green sample.  I guess we will find out next TVBS poll where I do expect some of the DPP Lai surge to wear off.

In terms of favorable/unfavorable it is
DPP Lai    41/40
TPP Ko     40/42
KMT Hou  35/41

which means all 3 are capable of being in the 30%+ vote share range but clearly only 2 can make it there.  This poll is the best from DPP Lai's point of view since the floor for KMT Hou is higher than TPP Ko so KMT Hou is still be bigger danger to DPP Lai in terms of potential.

Overall DPP Lai's chances are looking good are getting better.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

What do you think Hou can do to win the election?

[jaichind]

What do you think Hou can do to win the election?

Mostly out of his control. 

First, Guo must not run.  Right now there is a reasonable shot that Guo might run.  The case for Guo to run would be that 2024 is the last year he can reasonably run so even if the chances of him winning are tiny he might as well try.

Second TPP Ko has to implode in some way.  The best time would be sometime in September when KMT Hou registers as the KMT candidate cutting off any chances of Guo taking his place.  This might lead to a surge of pan-Blue undecideds toward KMT Hou and if TPP Ko gets hit with something around the same time it would be the best-case scenario for KMT Hou.

After that KMT Hou has to hope to get within striking distance with DPP Lai by Nov in which case he can then hope for tactical voting to get him across the finishing line in Jan.

I rate all these things taking place at around 5%-10% shot.  All of these in theory are quite possible for for all of them to take place seems fairly remote.

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/DemesDavid/status/1695981895866306998

Terry Guo IN for the presidential race.

[jaichind]

Guo will need to get the requisite number of signatures and then register. Assuming this is not a move to force some sort of grand alliance with TPP Ko or KMT Hou, then DPP Lai's chances just went from 80% to 99%.

[jaichind]

One of the main planks of Guo's campaign will be "let's make sure that ROC will never get turned into the diaster that Ukraine is today"

[jaichind]

Formosa poll (3- way and 4- way)

Some info first.  Formosa is run by a bunch of DPP renegades but has a track record of a heavy Green lean.  It is fairly accurate in DPP wave elections (like 2016 and 2020) but is way off by erratic levels when it is not a Green wave.

This is in contrast to TvBS and Ettoday who have a Blue and Green lean but they hold those consistent leans even in very different election cycles.  UDN has a Blue lean but is more erratic and I would put them at a tier below TvBS and Ettoday.

Anyway, the latest Formosa numbers

3-way
DPP Lai             38.8
TPP Ko              20.8
KMT Hou           18.7

4-way
DPP Lai             37.6
TPP Ko              17.5
KMT Hou           17.4
pro-KMT Guo     10.5

Overall I would cut 4%-5% from DPP Lai and redistribute them to the other 3 candidates.   Still, an insurmountable DPP Lai leads with very little hope of massive tactical voting to beat DPP Lai.  

Like I guessed, Guo hurts TPP Ko more than KMT Hou

If before Guo entered the race I would put the odds at

DPP Lai          80%
TPP Ko           12%
KMT Hou         8%

Now I would put it at

DPP Lai        99%
TPP Ko           0%
KMT Hou        1%
pro-KMT Guo  0%

Guo running removes any chance of TPP Ko winning while if there is anyone other than DPP Lai that can win it would be KMT Hou

[jaichind]

Latest Newtalk 4-way poll.  Newtalk historically has a green lean and has been erratic.    This cycle they seem to have a Guo lean.  Change is from Newtalk poll 2 weeks ago

DPP Lai             33.33 (+2.87)
TPP Ko              20.97 (-3.74)
pro-KMT Guo     20.01 (+2.68)
KMT Hou           18.14 (+1.22)



Party Support

DPP                 30.78 (+2.37)
KMT                 27.11 (-2.23)
TPP                  19.58 (-1.41)
NPP                   1.33 (-0.11)
TSP                   1.29 (-0.08)
PFP                   0.36 (-0.33)     

Like the other polls, Guo announcing mostly means Guo takes votes from TPP Ko.  DPP Lai's rise seems more about the last sample two weeks ago being too Blue with KMT support above DPP even with TPP at 21% which makes no sense.  This poll's party support beings to make more sense.

[jaichind]

My guess right now of the results will be assuming Guo does register and does not drop out to back KMT Hou or TPP Ko

DPP Lai          37
KMT Hou        30
TPP Ko           25
pro-KMT Guo    8

Guo will surge for a while eating into TPP Ko's support.  That will trigger a shift of the KMT-TPP tactical vote toward KMT Hou.  Then Guo deflates losing support to both KMT Hou and TPP Ko and then falls apart at the end of the election.

[jaichind]

With DPP Lai's election now looking all but certain the biggest winner out of all this, besides DPP Lai, of course, would be KMT mayor of Taipei Chiang. 

With DPP in charge at the center, the 2026 local election will be another KMT win with Chiang leading the KMT effort and getting credit for the win.  Chiang has to avoid the trap of running for Prez in 2028 since DPP Lai is likely to win re-election.  As long as he can find someone else to run in 2028 then everything is set for Chiang to lead the KMT to victory as the Prez candidate in 2032.  If KMT Hou had won in 2024 then that cut off the route for Chiang to be Prez since the DPP would win in 2032 and by 2040 Chiang would be past his prime to run.  Chiang's best shot is 2032 and now the road is clear for him to win in 2032.

[jaichind]

Ettoday 4-way poll

DPP Lai's surge from his trip to the USA is still present.  Guo announcing that he will run led to a surge that seems to have come at the expense of KMT Hou.  Of course, KMT Hou, unlike other polls, was ahead of TPP Ko in this poll during Aug.

DPP Lai          35.3
KMT Hou        21.4
TPP Ko           17.6
pro-KMT Guo  17.2




Cross tabs
DPP Lai is stronger with women which is unusual as a DPP candidate.  Looking at party ID it is clear the undecided lean Blue.  DPP Lai most likely is close to his cap in this poll and most of the rest of the vote will go to the 3 pan-Blue candidates.





For reference, their 3-way poll clearly shows Guo hurting TPP Ko the most

DPP Lai       37.6
TPP Ko        24.3
KMT Hou     24.2

[jaichind]

The latest DPP renegade-run Formosa Times 4-way poll has the DPP Lai surge from his trip to USA clearly receding.  The Formosa Times poll is lean-heavy Green and erratic and should be read as what the result would be if it was a DPP wave.

The difference is the change from 5 days ago at the peak of DPP Lai's surge in the poll

DPP Lai          35.3 (-4.8 )
KMT Hou        17.8 (+2.2)
TPP Ko           17.1 (+0.5)
pro-KMT Guo  11.6 (-0.4)

DPP Lai's numbers mostly seem to match Ettoday's polls with some underestimate of the pan-Blue candidates relative to Ettoday.  Formosa poll has a heavy Green lean while Ettoday has a small Green lean.  I will be curious to see what the next TVBS poll would look like a few weeks from now.

[jaichind]

"Leaked" Guo internals have KMT Hou collapsing at the Guo announcement that he will run and a surge of undecides (which I assume are pan-Blue voters deciding between KMT Hou, TPP Ko, and Guo.)  It also shows the DPP Lai's surge subsiding just like other polls.

DPP Lai         29.3
TPP Ko          22.6
KMT Hou       14.2
pro-KMT Guo 13.4

Frankly, this poll seems like an advertisement for TPP Ko.



This "leak" shows that the Guo strategy is to take down KMT Hou first and then go after TPP Ko.  I do not think this will work.  The TPP Ko vote is softer and Guo is better off trying to claw support away from TPP Ko first.

[jaichind]

Looking at the crosstabs on the Ettoday poll or 3-way vs. 4- way we can derive the following facts:

1) Guo draws from undecides are lean women, older and independent/lean Blue
2) Guo draws from TPP Ko are lean women, middle age and independent/lean Blue
3) Guo takes some from pan-Greens but not that much but where he does it seems to lean middle age

This sort of shows that in a 3-way race, DPP Lai is favored but not a done deal since the undecides heavily lean Blue.  In a 4 way race, the undecides still seem lean blue but less so with DPP Lai with a bigger lead over the 2nd place overall.  So in a 4-way race, it is a done deal that it is DPP Lai.

[jaichind]

KMT mayor of Taipei Chiang was in Shanghai for 4 days for the annual Taipei-Shanghai forum.  TPP Ko, when he was mayor, put a lot of focus on this annual event which was one of the main reasons he broke with DPP since doing so was part of his shift from Deep Green to light Green to light Blue.

Chiang being the great-grandson of Chiang Kai-Shek as well as being the mayor of Taipei was the main reason he was mobbed by Shanghai crowds.  Here he invited the Shanghai crowds following him around to visit Taipei.
https://twitter.com/roclove2020/status/1696953354168283452

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll has which is now 4-way

DPP Lai               30 (-7)
TPP Ko                23 (-5)
KMT Hou             19 (-3)
pro-KMT Guo       14 (new)



I will have to review the crosstabs when it comes out.  I am pretty sure Guo's running did NOT lead to a 7-point fall in DPP Lai support.  DPP Lai being -7 is more about the glow of DPP Lai's trip to the USA fading PLUS a very green sample in the late August poll.  Again it will be clearer once the cross tabs come out.

[jaichind]

Looking at the crosstabs of the TBVS polls shows that the late August poll most likely did have an unusually green sample most of which has been normalized in the early Sept poll.

                     DPP      KMT        TPP
Late July         26         25         16
Late Aug         28         21         16
Early Sept       28         24         16

The early Sept poll most likely still has a higher Green tilt than Late July but it has normalized somewhat from the Late Aug sample.  From this we can conclude DPP Lai did NOT fall 7% from Late Aug to Early Sept but more like 5% which is mostly about the DPP Lai visit to USA media coverage wearing off plus a tiny loss due to Guo getting into the race.

[jaichind]

TPP Ko gave an interview on a Deep Blue media outlet held by a former KMT Deep Blue MP who has been advocating for a KMT-TPP alliance to take on DPP.  So in many ways, TPP Ko is on friendly territory but will spin his views to appeal to the Deep Blue vote.

TPP Ko said
a) His education and upbringing are very Chinese and you can never take "the China" out of Taiwan.  He showed off his knowledge of classical Chinese poetry in Hoklo which rhymes better than Mandarin as Hoklo is an ancient Chinese dialect.
b)  He rules out Independence and Unification.  When pushed on why he rules out unification in the long run he backtracked a bit and said that the PRC system could evolve in the future when unification can be discussed but that seems a far way off.
c) He projected a negative experience on his trip to the USA.  He said that USA officials had an irrational obsession with trying to take down the PRC.  He said that he said to their face "I agree with your value system but if we believe in our common value system why cannot we let that value system win on its own merits on the PRC versus trying to push a confrontation now'  He said that the USA officials became much more cool on him after he pushed back in that way.
d) He indicated that Ukraine is a disaster and however the war turns out it will be destroyed for the next 2-3 generations.  He said that ROC must avoid that fate.
e) When asked if he was pro-USA he said of course.  But then made a joke with his hand gesture suggesting that if he was not pro-USA he might be "taken out."

If you filter out the need for a Deep Blue spin TPP Ko's position is pretty much a pro-USA light blue that wants to work toward evolution of the PRC system to resolve the PRC-ROC conflict.

[jaichind]

Guo steps down from the board of Foxconn, the company he founded almost 50 years ago.  It seems his running is not a ruse and he is going all out to run.  Very good news for DPP Lai.

[Octowakandi]

Guo steps down from the board of Foxconn, the company he founded almost 50 years ago.  It seems his running is not a ruse and he is going all out to run.  Very good news for DPP Lai.

So would you rule out any chance for a grand alliance? This really seems like such a weird situation where everyone but Lai knows they can’t win.

[jaichind]

Guo steps down from the board of Foxconn, the company he founded almost 50 years ago.  It seems his running is not a ruse and he is going all out to run.  Very good news for DPP Lai.

So would you rule out any chance for a grand alliance? This really seems like such a weird situation where everyone but Lai knows they can’t win.

I mostly would.  The people involved have too much ego.  Also, game theory tells them that 2024 should be a DPP defeat so all 3 pan-Blue candidates which are all polling above 10% are thinking "if only I hold on I will win the game of chicken and the other 1 or 2 pan-Blue candidates will withdraw for me to win"  Of course that very dynamic and thinking will mean no one wins the game of chicken.

The one the most likely to drop out might be TPP Ko.  I think deep down he knows he will most likely not win and he is really in it to push up the TPP PR vote.  If he can get some sort of deal with the KMT I think he might take it.  The main problem is the KMT legislative candidates might not be OK with stepping aside in a few seats for TPP  and might rebel and the fact that TPP Ko polls above KMT Hou in some polls and was ahead of DPP Lai a month or two ago might make him think that he does have a shot.