2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

Interesting situation with both main parties having scandals. What’s Ko’s endgame? He keeps running with no chance to be President. Does he want a Cabinet seat? Does he want to be bought into the KMT?

The last couple of weeks have not been good for either Hou or Lai.  By default, Ko won the last couple of weeks.  In the long run, I think Lai will be able to recover.  The DPP base is very loyal and will come back and it will be critical in a 3-way race.  I would say right now Lai is more likely to win than Hou.  The various DPP scandals will hurt the DPP brand and I think there is no way the DPP wins a legislative majority and most likely not even the single largest party even when Lai wins.

[jaichind]

It seems just that on June 4th, 2023, 1989  Tiananmen Square protests hero and PRC dissident 王丹(Wang Dan) also got wrapped up in the DPP sexual harassment scandals and was accused of sexual harassment.  Wang Dan went to ROC in 2009 and has been mostly aligned with DPP politics and hanging out with DPP political circles while acting as a political science professor.  Now he is accused of sexual harassment along with a bunch of other DPP bigwigs.

[jaichind]

Wow.  Latest update.  The accusation against the famous PRC dissident and hero of the 1989  Tiananmen Square protests against 王丹(Wang Dan) has risen to attempted rape.

Still.  Very fishy.  Attempted rape is very serious so why is this coming out now.  As much as I disagree with the politics of 王丹(Wang Dan) I think this might be trumped up.

[jaichind]

Ko is in Japan.  Here he is meeting with former LDP PM Aso and former DPJ PM Noda




It seems in his discussions with the two former Japanese PMs the topic of trying to get Guo to join forces with Ko came up.

[jaichind]

Rule of thumb: 彰化縣(Changhua County) is the bellwether county and unless the margin of victory is less than 1% whoever wins 彰化縣(Changhua County) wins the Prez election

Looking at the results of the 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 elections in  彰化縣(Changhua County)  in terms of the vote share of the winner and the vote share overall we get

Year     Winner    ROC vote share    彰化縣(Changhua County) vote share
2000     DPP           39.30%                           40.05%
2004     DPP           50.11%                           52.26%
2008     KMT          58.45%                           57.59%
2012     KMT          51.60%                           50.58%
2016     DPP           56.12%                          56.47%   
2020     DPP           57.13%                          57.17%   

With 彰化縣(Changhua County) having a Green +1 lean the entire time

[jaichind]

Major PR mess up by ROC Air Force

DPP Prez Tsai went to a ROC Air Force base and had a televised call with a pilot on a ROC fighter flying in the Taiwan Straits to wish him best wishes.  But somehow the PLA Air Force was on that channel as well and jumped in to say "This is the PLA Air Force, you are in our territory, please leave our territory"  DPP Pres Tsai as stunned and then embarrassed.
https://twitter.com/Amelia181672271/status/1667484539801964545

The ROC Air Force totally messed up.  They first

a) Did not create a special secret channel for this call
b) Did not give DPP Prez Tsai a call sign and allowed her to say "I am the Prez" which then merely provoked a PLA Air Force pilot in a fighter nearby to jump into their converstation.

[PSOL]

Why hasn’t the DPP after all these years cleaned up the army of pro-reunification people?

[jaichind]

Why hasn’t the DPP after all these years cleaned up the army of pro-reunification people?

Just to be clear this is a technical mess up by the ROC Air Force but is not anything political.  I would say the hierarchy and institutions of the  ROC armed forces are very "One China" but not pro-unification.   In a PLA assault on ROC without Taiwan Independence being declared I expect the ROC armed forces to resist every step of the way.  If the DPP pushes through proclaiming Taiwain Independence (giving up territorial claims on Mainland China) which in turn provoke a PLA attack I do expect a good part of the ROC armed forces hierarchy to mostly stand down.  That being the case and USA opposition means a de jure Taiwan Independence is extremely unlikely.

[PSOL]

Why hasn’t the DPP after all these years cleaned up the army of pro-reunification people?

Just to be clear this is a technical mess up by the ROC Air Force but is not anything political.  I would say the hierarchy and institutions of the  ROC armed forces are very "One China" but not pro-unification.   In a PLA assault on ROC without Taiwan Independence being declared I expect the ROC armed forces to resist every step of the way.  If the DPP pushes through proclaiming Taiwain Independence (giving up territorial claims on Mainland China) which in turn provoke a PLA attack I do expect a good part of the ROC armed forces hierarchy to mostly stand down.  That being the case and USA opposition means a de jure Taiwan Independence is extremely unlikely.

Your pedantry is top notch

Why haven’t they purged the KMT elements who will defect once the PLA reaches the shore?

[jaichind]

Your pedantry is top notch

Why haven’t they purged the KMT elements who will defect once the PLA reaches the shore?

1) Understand that the military is a profession and it takes decades of being in the military to be able to know how to run the military from a technical and organizational point of view.

2) People that have pro-DPP views tend NOT to want to be in the military for a career

3) If anything the DPP tends to try to please the military hierarchy over the last two DPP administrations.  All DPP cabinets (2000-2008 and 2016-2023) have a Minister of Defense that has a pro-KMT background or a Mainlander (which is de facto pro-KMT) military background, usually a general.  The reality is that everyone in the ROC military hierarchy is pro-KMT or Mainlander due to 2).  This leads to interesting dynamics in that the members of a DPP cabinet would use political language that is very "Two China" or "One China, One Taiwan" but the DPP Minister of Defense would use language that is very "One China" (like how they refer to PRC.)

4) Controlling the military has never been a DPP priority.  The reality is that we must view the DPP not as something totally different and alien from KMT.  Proto-DPP is really a KMT splinter that emerged in the late 1960s that uses Hoklo identity as a way to pull power to itself.  At the core despite what some core DPP voters want the DPP hierarchy is not really interested in Taiwan's Independence put into action from a legal point of view. In that situation having a ROC military that is politically neutral is good enough versus one that will carry out the DPP agenda.

[jaichind]

ROC Ministers of Defense in DPP Prez Tsai administration 

馮世寬(Feng Shih-Kuan) - 2016 to 2018 - KMT background, Mainlander (born in Jiangsu province) - Airforce background - former COC of Air Force during the DPP Prez Chen administration
嚴德發(Yen Teh-Fa) - 2018-2021 - Mainlander (parents are from Nanjing which is also in Jiangsu province) - Army background - retired general.  Not in theory KMT background but was very close to former KMT Prez Ma who was behind a lot of his promotions
邱國正(Chiu Kuo-cheng) - 2021-  - Mainlander (parents from Jiangsu province (notice a pattern about Jiangsu Province?)) - Arym background - retired general.  Just like 嚴德發(Yen Teh-Fa) not in theory KMT background but was very close to former KMT Prez Ma who was behind a lot of his promotions.

DPP Perz Tsai picked these Ministers of Defense who are very similar to the Minister of Defense under DPP Prez Chen from 2000 to 2008 to not rock the boat but also make sure there is zero chance the military hierarchy gets involved in politics, especially in a DPP administration.   The idea is the DPP will give the ROC military hierarchy it's due and make sure someone from their background and ideology is in charge and in return they make sure the ROC military does their duty and stay neutral.

[jaichind]

ROC-PRC pair wins tennis women doubles.  Long Live Chinese Reunification!!!

https://twitter.com/rolandgarros/status/1667862124889100289

[jaichind]

https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202306140024

"ELECTION 2024/DPP agrees to back SDP's Miao Po-ya in Taipei's 6th electoral district"

DPP will back SDP's 苗博雅 (Miao Poya) in Taipei 6th district which is fairly strong Blue (around Blue +8). 苗博雅 (Miao Poya) is a lesbian and one of the few well-known LGBT politicians on ROC.

The fact that the DPP is backing non-DPP candidates in strong blue areas in the urban North is that it realizes that even if DPP Lai has an edge in a 3 way Prez race his appeal is in the rural South and will drag down the DPP changes in the urban North in legislative elections.

In 2016 DPP backed SDP's founder 范雲 (Fan Yun) in this district 2016 who lost due to the anti-KMT vote splintering while DPP Tsai carried the district in a 3-way race.

SDP's founder 范雲 (Fan Yun) was an up-and-coming DPP superstar in the early 2000s but bolted from DPP due to disagreements with DPP Prez Tsai forming SDP.  She later returned to DPP under DPP Prez Tsai even though SDP remained and is somewhat active in Taipei's local politics at the assembly level.  范雲 (Fan Yun) is a family friend and she is fairly close to one of my cousins.

[jaichind]

The latest TPOF (a renegade DPP shop) party ID poll has TPP surging and both KMT and DPP falling(change from May)

DPP  24.5 (-6.5)
KMT  20.4 (-5.8 )
TPP  22.2 (+6.6)
NPP   7.2 (+4.2)
TSP   6.3 (+4.3)



TPOF has always been youth heavy in terms of bias so they always overestimate TPP NPP and TSP and underestimate KMT.    In many ways, this poll is reverting to the pattern of polling TPOF had before the 2022 local election cycle really started which did consolidate anti-DPP support over to the KMT.

But the trend is alarming for the KMT as Ko is now in a position to make this an actual 3-way race which should make it very hard for KMT Hou to win with DPP Lai in a strong position and TPP Ko an outside shot of winning himself outright.

[greengod]

A shocking TVBS poll was released.

According the poll, Ko (TPP) is 33% and Lai (DPP) becomes second (30%).

Hou (KMT) is 23%.

[jaichind]

A shocking TVBS poll was released.

According the poll, Ko (TPP) is 33% and Lai (DPP) becomes second (30%).

Hou (KMT) is 23%.

Disastrous numbers for KMT Hou in a poll that should not have a youth bias




TPP Ko's lead is based on a surge in the younger voters where a good part of the pan-Blue youth vote has further shifted to TPP Ko.

Unless KMT Hou turns this around this could be a re-run of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) mayor race last year where a good part of the KMT base went over to back the TP candidate to defeat the incumbent DPP in an open seat.  This turn of events is not great news for DPP Lai either.

The only consolation for KMT Hou is that part of the TPP Ko surge might be from KMT Guo supporters that might go back to KMT Hou once KMT is officially nominated.  But that will just make KMT Hou and TPP Ko around the same level of support giving DPP Lai the lead in a 3 way race.

[jaichind]

Some more crosstabs from the TVBS poll
  
                   Men      Women
DPP Lai         30          30  
KMT Hou       22          24
TPP Ko          37          28

TPP Ko is stronger with men.  More undecided women, which is always the case, is a hidden strength for KMT Hou.


                  Junior High      High School      Technical        College       Graduate
DPP Lai            37                  33                    26               25               27
KMT Hou          25                  28                    24               19               16
TPP Ko             12                  26                    36                49              50

It seems part of the KMT base with high school and Technical school level shifted to TPP Ko.


                  DPP      KMT     TPP     NPP     TSP       Neutral       Other
                  22%      20%    15%    4%      3%         18%          17%
DPP Lai        80          4         2       36      72            20             20
KMT Hou        6        73         4        8         8           21              12
TPP Ko           9        19       90       50      16            34             28

NPP leans TPP Ko is part of the NPP youth lean.  If this continues where NPP voter favors light Blue Ko then one really has to start thinking of NPP as a Light Green party and not a Deep Green party.  TSP is Deep green of course.


Approval/Disapproval
DPP Lai     47/38
KMT Hou   44/38
TPP Ko      52/34
DPP          37/51
KMT          38/49
TPP           40/39

TPP Ko has an opening now.  If they can get into a solid second place, pushing KMT out of the way,, their higher ceiling than DPP will work in their favor to overtake DPP.

[Octowakandi]

A shocking TVBS poll was released.

According the poll, Ko (TPP) is 33% and Lai (DPP) becomes second (30%).

Hou (KMT) is 23%.

Disastrous numbers for KMT Hou in a poll that should not have a youth bias




TPP Ko's lead is based on a surge in the younger voters where a good part of the pan-Blue youth vote has further shifted to TPP Ko.

Unless KMT Hou turns this around this could be a re-run of 新竹市(Hsinchu City) mayor race last year where a good part of the KMT base went over to back the TP candidate to defeat the incumbent DPP in an open seat.  This turn of events is not great news for DPP Lai either.

The only consolation for KMT Hou is that part of the TPP Ko surge might be from KMT Guo supporters that might go back to KMT Hou once KMT is officially nominated.  But that will just make KMT Hou and TPP Ko around the same level of support giving DPP Lai the lead in a 3 way race.

You think if Ko consistently does really good enough, those Gou supporters may think the only way to beat DPP is vote for Ko? Also what's your opinion on the desirability of a President Ko. Man has ran his city quite well.

[jaichind]

You think if Ko consistently does really good enough, those Gou supporters may think the only way to beat DPP is vote for Ko? Also what's your opinion on the desirability of a President Ko. Man has ran his city quite well.

Well, KMT Hou's poor ratings might be temporary over his own scandal in some New Taipei elementary schools using the wrong medicine on children.  He is not involved but as mayor, he has to take the heat. 

As for Guo supporters, it is not clear if they are backing Ko in polls because of real support or if they are putting pressure on the KMT high command to swap out Hou with Guo.  Once KMT formally nominates  Hou in July then looking at the polls will give a clear picture.

TPP Ko did a good job with image projection with the youth and this is part of the reason why he is able to pull in NPP and KMT youth support.  In terms of running Taipei, I would rate him as average.  If TPP Ko became Prez it would break the Blue-Green dichotomy and TPP might emerge as the leading force on the Pan-Blue side pushing KMT to a third party. 

I mentioned before, that Ko with his Deep Green background, emerges as a possible alternative to DPP on the Pan-Blue side is as strange as saying "In 2040, Ben Shapiro leads a moderate social and fiscal liberal third party run that eats into the Dem vote and emerges as the main center-left alternative to the GOP."  But here we are.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

So what happens to the KMT if Ko wins?  Does the TPP replace them as the main opponent of the DPP?  I can't imagine a party like the KMT going away, but do it's politicians start migrating to the TPP?

[jaichind]

So what happens to the KMT if Ko wins?  Does the TPP replace them as the main opponent of the DPP?  I can't imagine a party like the KMT going away, but do it's politicians start migrating to the TPP?

If Ko narrowly loses with the KMT vote share falling to the low 20s I think the impact long term will be low with TPP imploding after Ko moves on from the political scene and the KMT bouncing back as the main Pan-Blue party.  If TPP Ko wins then I can see a situation where TPP-KMT forms a ruling alliance with TPP growing fairly quickly at the legislative level but not at the local level.    Even after Ko moves on TPP will remain a key light blue party where unless KMT finds as way to keep them on their side DPP wins by default.

[peterthlee]

The whole story becomes more and more intriguing.
Just like how PN replaces BN as the major Malay coalition in Malaysia, FdI replaces FI as leading right-wing force in Italy, Bolsonarism replaces PSDB as leading right-wing force in Brazil, FA replaces PS as major left-wing force in Chile, old factions in PPP largely yielded to "outsiders" Lee Jun-seok and Yoon seok-yeol in South Korea...

[jaichind]

Ko rules out a Ko-Gou ticket.

[jaichind]

Recent trends

a) Guo still shows no sign of throwing himself behind KMT Hou which is one of the reasons for his flagging campaign so far.  Guo does seem active in backing the KMT at the legislative level so we can mostly rule out a Ko-Guo alliance.  Guo seems to be more about a possible independent run or holding out for more concessions from KMT high command/Hou on power sharing.

b) KMT Hou seems to have shifted to a more Deep Blue position to try to win back some of the pro-Guo Deep Blue voters that seem to have gone over to TPP Ko.  This might be a good idea in the short run but gives up Hou's ability to win over Light Green voters which was the main reason to nominate Hou in the first place.  KMT Hou's bet must be to win back the Deep Blue vote to get himself into second place again and then hope that TPP Ko can scoop up Light Green voters and not have them to go to DPP Lai.  This sounds like wishful thinking but we will see.

[jaichind]

https://www.bollyinside.com/news/politics/taiwan-candidates-pledge-on-china-status-quo-sends-signal-to-us/

"Taiwan Candidate’s Pledge on China Status Quo Sends Signal to US"

DPP Lai promises not to change the status quo which means on paper he is moving to DPP Prez Tsai's anti-PRC "Two China" position versus a Deep Green "One China, One Taiwan" positon.   

It is not clear if USA, PRC, and light green light blue voters would believe him but he is trying to move to the middle ground in order to win in 2024.