2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[jaichind]

There have not been quality polls for a while but it is clear that KMT Hou is still down in 3rd place and not getting any better.  I have to assume there will be a rally of the KMT base later in July around KMT Hou as he is nominated but that merely plays in the DPP Lai's hands.

If I had to guess now the result will be

DPP Lai   38
TPP Ko    32
KMT Hou 30

A lack of KMT-TPP tactical voting toward the end would make DPP Lai's victory very likely.

On the flip side, this sort of setup is also fairly negative for the DPP in the legislative races.  It is very likely that DPP will not be that largest party even with a solid DPP Lai victory in the Prez race.

[jaichind]

RW poll on Prez election.  RW historically has a youth and DPP lean

DPP Lai   38.48%
TPP Ko    28.34%
KMT Hou 21.29%
 
The undecided seem to lean blue but if TPP Ko and KMT Hou continue to have similar levels of support then DPP Lai should be able to win with around 38%-40% of the vote.

Their 4-way poll if Guo were to get in

DPP Lai    38.23%
TPP Ko     25.29%
KMT Hou  20.39%
Ind. Guo   9.22% (as pro-KMT independent)

Guo getting 9.22% while Ko and Hou not falling that much indicates that the undecided do lean Blue.

[jaichind]

It would be funny if 2024 and 2028 become a rerun of 2000 and 2004.   This would mean DPP Lai wins over TPP Ko and KMT Hou in a 3-way race with around 40% of the vote.  Then in 2028, there is a KMT-TPP alliance to take on Lai who wins re-election very narrowly.  KMT-TPP has control of the legislature the entire time.  This seems the most likely outcome now which would be a clone of 2000 and 2004 except where you replace PFP with TPP.

[jaichind]

DPP renegade TOPF poll on possible 4-way race where Guo also runs

DPP Lai    33.9
TPP Ko     20.5
KMT Hou  18.0
Ind Guo   15.2 (pro-KMT independent)

At this stage, I am sure DPP Lai is ahead of TPP Ko who is ahead of KMT Hou.  The problem is I do not know the scope of those leads since this last month all polls are from non-reliable polls.  Pollsters like TPOF having a Green lean is not an issue.  What is the issue is the lean is erratic and changes from poll to poll and sometimes gives crazy results.

I am still waiting on the poll from either TVBS UDN or Ettoday.  TVBS and UDN have a slight pro-Blue lean while Ettoday have a slight pro-Green lean but those leans tend to be consistent and they do not product wild results.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/17/taiwan-china-agreements-safety/

Guo writing an opinion piece in Washington Post advocating PRC-ROC talks and reconciliation and  under the One China principle

[jaichind]

The KMT national convention is early next week and TVBS will have a post-convention poll coming out.  If KMT Hou is still 3rd place then the various anti-Hou forces in the KM (pro-Guo, pro-Han, pro-Ko) will be coming out to force KMT high command to drop Hou and replace him with either Guo, Han (2020 KMT candidate), or form an alliance with Ko.

It seems the KMT is bad at reading the election dynamics.  The KMT read 2020 as a 3-way race (DPP Tsai vs KMT vs Ko) so they went with Han who has a high floor and low ceiling.  Ko never ran so the election turned into a DPP Tsai vs KMT Han battle which DPP Tsai won with ease given Han's limited appeal.  For 2024 the KMT read the election as 2-way race so they went with a low-floor high ceiling Hou.  Well, it turned into a 3-way race with also does not play well with Hou who has a limited core base even if he has broad appeal.    It seems if the KMT ran Hou in 2020 and Han in 2024 the result would have been better in retrospect.  Of course, swapping Hou out after the KMT convention will have such a bad look the KMT will be out one way or another.

[olenik2]

Is there any polling or info on the legislative yuan? Would be interesting to see how the FPTP part would go in a 3-way political dynamic.

[jaichind]

Is there any polling or info on the legislative yuan? Would be interesting to see how the FPTP part would go in a 3-way political dynamic.

Traditionally public district polls are very few and often fake.  There will be some PR ballot polls soon.   

[jaichind]

When asked "Are Taiwanese people Chinese" Ko's response is:

Culturally and economically Taiwanese are Chinese
Politically, at this stage, one cannot say Taiwanese are Chinese, yet.  Politically, as for the future, TBD.

Pretty standard tilt Green Two China position.  Other than being open to future reunification, Ko's answer would broadly overlap DPP Prez Tsai position and would pretty much be the same as Tsai's position in 2001 when she entered politics.

Ko's position is mosty saying "I am targeting light Green and light Blue votes"

[jaichind]

Latest TVBS poll (change from June)

DPP Lai    33 (+3)
TPP Ko     32 (-1)
KMT Hou  25 (+2)



The results are not decisive and give both the pro-Hou and anti-Hou camps within the KMT to make their case.  Most likely this is enough for the pro-Hou KMT high command to push forward with Hou's nomination and registration in Sept on the gamble that once KMT registers Hou in Sept then the pro-Guo forces will be forced to come back to support Hou.  Hou being behind the front runners by 6-7 points is just small enough to argue that  Hou can make up such ground from now to Jan 2024.

Crosstabs

Gender
                 Male      Female
DPP Lai        34          31  
TPP Ko         37          28
KMT Hou      22          28

KMT Hou has a women gender lean while TPP Ko has a male gender lean



Age
                 20s    30s     40s    50s     60+
DPP Lai      24      25       35      32      39
TPP Ko       62      54       40      27       8
KMT Hou      9      16       22      34      33

The massive TPP Ko yout lean and KMT Hou elderly lean is clear.  These results indicate that TPP Ko is most likely over-polled and KMT Hou is under-polled.  2020 had a large youth turnout over the HK protests which is expected to revert to the mean.  There are a large number of undecideds in the 60+ crowd which I suspect are lean blue voters deciding between supporting KMT Hou or hoping for Guo to emerge.  This is exactly the crowd that the pro-Hou KMT high command hopes will come home in Sept.



Education
                     Junior      High     Technical     College     Graduate
DPP Lai            42          33           28             30             27
TPP Ko              7           33           31             46             46
KMT Hou          25          28           37             18             22

TPP Ko clearly had a high education lean.  Most of the undecided are those with Junior High school levels.  Similar to the 60+ undecided crowd (there is clearly a large overlap between the two) I suspect there is a heavy KMT Hou lean if forced to choose.  Of course, this superset might not vote so it will be on the KMT to mobilize them for election day.

[jaichind]

If the TVBS poll reflects the state of the race plus my personal observation that TPP Ko is most likely over-polled and KMT Hou is most likely under-polled then that is good news for KMT Hou as he is still in the race but even better news for DPP Lai.

The race then will most likely end up with DPP Lai winning (35-40) vs (30-35) vs (30-35) with zero chance of tactical voting between TPP and KMT to stop DPP Lai.  The fact that the race will have two viable non-DPP candidates means the DPP vote share is unlikely to go over 40% but that is not much of a loss as long as it delivers a victory as it seems the most likely outcome right now.

[jaichind]

The current polling dynamics greatly favor DPP Lai.

DPP Lai has a high floor but a low ceiling.  In a de facto 2 way race I figure Lai will be 40-45.  In a de facto 3 way race I figure Lai will be 35-40.  And more likely than not he is more likely to be at the upper part of both ranges.

The best way to beat Lai is for the KMT to knock TPP Ko below 20 where the dynamics of tactical voting will drive him to below 10.  Then KMT Hou will win something like 48-44-8.

TPP Ko having a great May-June and KMT Hou having a terrible May-June pretty much ruled that out.  As long as KMT high command rallies behind KMT Hou and how TPP Ko caught fire with youth voters Ido does not think either TPP Ko or KMT Hou will fall below 20.  In fact, there is good reason to believe neither will fall below 25.

But if DPP Lai is at 35-40 in a 3-way race and Lai is closer to 40 than 35 then there is almost zero chance DPP Lai can be defeated with both TPP Ko and KMT Hou both at least 20 and more likely at least 25.  In fact, if DPP Ko and KMT Hou are mostly even then DPP Lai cannot lose.

The only path for DPP Lai to be defeated now would be to get the race where Lai is narrowly ahead something like 38-37-25 then the voters of the third-place candidate has a last-minute shift to push the other one ahead of DPP Lai by a narrow margin.  The problem with this scenario is that TPP Ko is now more likely than KMT Hou to be that second-place candidate but KMT Hou's vote base once it is down to a rock bottom of 25 is less likely to tactically vote for TPP Ko to defeat DPP Lai.  A more likely path would still have KMT Hou be that second-place candidate but the path for this to take place seems difficult.

What could blow up DPP Lai is a scandal to emerge for one of the 3 candidates.  If the scandal is with DPP Lai he might fall below his 35 floor and if the scandal is with TPP Ko or KMT Hou then the race could turn into a de facto 2-way race where DPP Lai could be vulnerable to anti-Lai tactical voting.

[jaichind]

Ettoday poll. They have a slight pro-Green bias but they have been fairly consistent and reasonable over the years

3 way
DPP Lai    35.6
TPP Ko     28.8
KMT Hou  24.3



4 way

DPP Lai         33.4
TPP Ko          21.6
KMT Hou       21.0
pro-KMT Guo 16.4



The impact Guo made makes it clear that in the 3-way race, the undecides clearly lean Blue.  There is a similar pattern to the TVBS poll regarding gender and race.

If you look at this poll which has a Green lean and the TVBS poll which has a Blue lean I think the race now looks like

DPP Lai   34
TPP Ko    30
KMT Hou 25

With undecided lean Blue.  Assuming some homecoming of the KMT base to KMT Hou in Sept when he registers and Guo not running I expect the result to be

DPP Lai   38
TPP Ko    32
KMT Hou 30

[jaichind]

Newstalk poll.  This poll also has a green lean but does not have a consistent track record so I am more dubious of this poll.  This poll it seems does have a green lean but also a pro-Guo lean as well.

3-way with Hou as the KMT candidate

DPP Lai   33.5
TPP Ko    29.6
KMT Hou 21.4



3-way with Guo being swapped in as the KMT candidate

DPP Lai    29.5
KMT Guo  26.3
TPP Ko     26.2

I think this is bogus.  I think there are some light green voters that like the idea of Guo running as KMT candidate in the abstract because he is not aligned with the KMT high command but once Guo actually becomes the KMT candidate the light green vote will shift back to TPP Lai



4-way race

DPP Lai           30.5
TPP Ko            24.7
pro-KMT Guo   17.3
KMT Hou         16.9



In the meantime, KMT becomes the largest party in terms of support

KMT    29.3
DPP    28.4
TPP     21.0 (de facto light blue)
NPP      1.4 (de facto light green)
TSP      1.4 (deep green)
PFP      0.7

I think this poll oversampled pro-Guo voters.  It seems fishy that KMT support is higher than DPP WITH TPP at 21.

[jaichind]

北斗鎮(Beidou Township) head by-election was a victory for the Ko-Guo forces.

Result was

Pro-Guo-Ko KMT ind.            44.2%
Pro-Establishment KMT Ind.  33.2% (former township head and wife of current township head)
DPP                                    19.6%

The by-election was necessary due to the sitting pro-KMT township head being arrested for corruption.

In 2022 it was

Pro-Estabhsliemnt KMT Ind.  41.4%
Pro-Guo KMT Ind.                36.6%
DPP                                     22.0%

After the Pro-Estabhsliemnt KMT Ind. was arrested for corruption his faction ran his wife who was the former town head.  The wife first ran and won the township in a by-election in 2011 when her father-in-law was arrested for corruption and her husband was also implicated.  She won re-election in 2014 before her husband ran and won in 2018 and then in 2022.

The by-election winner who is aligned with Guo and Ko ran in 2018 and 2022 but lost both sides.  His winning this time with Ko-Guo support is a victory for the pro-Guo faction of the KMT here over the pro-Establishment KMT. 

This town is a bellwether township (pretty much PVI even) at the national level but has a very Blue lean at the local level.

[jaichind]

Speaking of 北斗鎮(Beidou Township) in Changhua County, it was, out of the 319 townships, villages, and zones on the ROC, the one closest to the ROC-wide Blue/Green split of 2020.   I actually visited this township back in 2003.  Back then one of my uncles was very into Chinese medicine to improve his health and one of the top Chinese medicine experts on ROC lived in 北斗鎮(Beidou Township) and was a friend of my uncle.  I went with my uncle to visit him on a day trip from Taipei to Changhua County.

北斗鎮(Beidou Township) is an example of what I call "the real Taiwan Province" and not the glitter of the urban Greater Taipei or the tech sector of Hsinchu City.  北斗鎮(Beidou Township) has always been fairly backward and only developed some light industry in the 1980s dragged along with the rest of the ROC industrial boom of the 1960s to 1980s.  Competition from PRC since the early 2000s clearly has eroded whatever industrial base 北斗鎮(Beidou Township) developed and now it is mostly a township of small retail businesses. I doubt 北斗鎮(Beidou Township)  has changed much since the early 2000s when I visited it.  Based on what I know most youth from this area migrate North after they finish high school or college.  The economic future of 北斗鎮(Beidou Township)  is cloudy at best.  Not a surprise at all that the township heads here keep on getting arrested for corruption.

[jaichind]

The next shoe to fall would be if Guo will run as an independent or back TPP Ko or support KMT Hou. If Guo were to run as an independent I would say DPP Lai chances of winning would go up from 75% to 99%.   

[jaichind]

TPP claim their internals show something like DPP Lai 32 TPP Ko 31 KMT Hou 20 while KMT claim that their internals show something like DPP Lai 32 TPP Ko 27 KMT Hou 26.  The strategy behind both leaks are clear. The reality is most likely somewhere in between. 

[jaichind]

Updated Newstalk poll.  This poll also has a green lean but with a dubious track record.  Their poll clearly shows a shift from TPP Ko to KMT Hou.



Same with the 4-way poll with Guo in the race.  Shift away from TPP Ko toward KMT Hou

 
Party support numbers have TPP going down which makes these numbers seems less fishy but still to have KMT ahead of DPP while TPP is at 20 is fishy.

 

[jaichind]

DPP renegade and head of My-Fromsa polls 吳子嘉 (Wu Tse-Jia) who was finally expelled from DPP back in 2021 said in an interview that the latest My-Fromsa poll has it at around DPP Lai 30 TPP Ko 22 KMT Hou 20.  He said the same thing I have been saying, namely that TPP Ko is very youth heavy and that unless the 2024 turnout pattern matches the 2020 youth turnout surge most polls most likely overestimate TPP Ko and underestimate KMT Hou including his own poll.  In 2020 there was a youth turnout surge due to the 2019 HK protests.  There does not seem to be a similar salience issue this time around.

[jaichind]

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) TPP mayor 高虹安(Ann Kao) who has a Guo background has been indicted for corruption from when she was a TPP MP last year.  This mostly involves her boyfriend who was also her legislative assistant drawing a full-time government salary when in fact he was working part-time.  My understanding is that her boyfriend is loaded so it is not clear what is going on here since the amount of money involved is tiny.  DPP claims this is a money laundry scheme to push money to TPP but given how rich her boyfriend is he can just donate to the TPP and that would be the end of it.

Anyway, this will further polarize the relationship between TPP (and Guo since 高虹安(Ann Kao) is really aligned with Guo and "lent" to TPP to run for Hsinchu City(新竹市) mayor last year) and DPP.   I think DPP and TPP both gain from this.  DPP can say: "see, corruption is not only in DPP" while TPP can say: "DPP is weaponizing the legal system against TPP."   I think the main loser here is KMT Hou since he has to clearly back 高虹安(Ann Kao)  but if he overdoes it then some of his vote will shift toward TPP Ko.

With 桃園市(Taoyuan City) and 臺北市(Taipei City) beginning to look out of reach for the DPP leading to a wipeout of the DPP in the North and with chances of a DPP flip in Central and South looking very dim, it seems the DPP is going all out in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3)  to try to get a win.

Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) is still a good target for the DPP because there seems to be a large anti-DPP majority in the North but the 3-way race in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) gives the DPP a chance.   The frontrunner right now is TPP's 高虹安(Ann Kao).  



The third-place KMT candidate recently raised concerns about 高虹安(Ann Kao)'s boyfriend being her government-paid assistant (she is currently a TPP PR MP) and that he is really working part-time while drawing a full-time salary and donating a good part of his salary to the TPP.  The DPP has decided to run with this scandal.  So far 高虹安(Ann Kao) is not doing a great job explaining what is going on here which gives an opening for the DPP and KMT to make this a neck-to-neck 3-way race versus a TPP lead.

Big news.  The local Taipei prosecution office called in  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3) TPP mayor-elect 高虹安(Ann Kao) over this case.  She, her boyfriend, and MP assistant plus a bunch of her staff were held for over 6 hours for questioning and were all released on bail.  There is a chance that she might not even be able to be sworn in on Dec 25th.    There is a common view in KMT and TPP circles that this is one last DPP attempt for losing the mayor office of  Hsinchu City(新竹市) (PVI Blue +3).  Not sure how this going to play out but this could be a catalyst for a KMT-TPP alliance in 2024.

[jaichind]

I am not sure what the DPP endgame is for the indictment of Hsinchu City(新竹市) TPP mayor 高虹安(Ann Kao) since in my mind it is a risky move.   Just like the Trump indictments in the USA, it is clear across the political spectrum that this is a) selective prosecution and b) even if DPP is not explicitly behind it pro-DPP forces are behind it.

My view is this could turn out to be a pro-ROI move by the DPP even in the short and medium run it most likely helps them.  DPP will take a hit on the selective prosecution part but it seems DPP hopes that TPP will take a bigger hit by shifting the corruption narrative away from DPP to TPP.  Making the media narrative about DPP vs TPP also marginalizes KMT. 

If DPP's plan is to make this a slow burn of TPP then most likely it is a net positive for DPP.  But if this case goes to trial before the election it could have the impact of blowing up TPP Ko's campaign,  That is actually bad news for DPP since while TPP Ko's cap is higher than KMT Hou, TPP Ko's floor is lower than KMT Hou.  If the race becomes DPP Lai first TPP Ko next and KMT Hou last that would be the best for DPP Lai since there is a hard floor on the KMT->TPP tactical voting that can take place.  If it was the other way around AND the TPP base sees that it was the DPP that used dirty tricks to take down TPP Ko, then the lower TPP Ko's floor will become an asset for KMT Hou to the detriment of DPP Lai.

So I guess in summary, my view is, DPP is sitting pretty now so why stir the pot and reshuffle the deck when you have more to lose and less to gain by doing so?

[jaichind]

For some reason, Ettoday released just a 4-way poll even though it is not clear that Guo is going to run.  The result seems to be that all 4 candidate loses ground but especially Guo.  In fact, this poll is pretty much telling Guo not to bother running which defeats the entire purpose of having this poll without a 3-way poll.

DPP Lai         31.7 (-1.7)
KMT Hou       18.6 (-2.4)
TPP Ko          17.5 (-3.1)
pro-KMT Guo 10.2 (-6.2)

[jaichind]

Guo invited both KMT Hou and KMT Ko to him home for some coffee talk over cooperation.  He used the story of "Three Little Pigs" and the need for the three pigs to unite to defeat the big bad wolf (DPP Lai).  I doubt this will go anywhere.  I can see KMT Hou perhaps meeting Gou.  TPP Ko will not take that risk given the large overlap of the Ko vote and Guo vote so such a meeting might mean TPP Ko losing support.

[Continential]

Out of curiosity, why is the ROC way less Christian than South Korea, and presumably Mainland China in percentage?