2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4425708-scott-perry-gop-house-seat-challenger-newman/

Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) being challenged by another Republican in the primary,  This seat is vulnerable and the Dem primary is very crowded.  Scott Perry is one of the most extreme election denial/"Stop the Steal" types in the Congress (Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus) and he's too far to the right for the district.

It was Trump 51-47 in 2020, voted for Shapiro by 55-43, and for Oz 49-48.

If he doesn't get defeated in 2024, this is one of the top pickup opportunities in 2026 under Trump midterm!

I think Biden doesn’t need to win this district for Perry to lose. I’m getting Scott Garret vibes here

[Thank you for being a friend...]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4425708-scott-perry-gop-house-seat-challenger-newman/

Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) being challenged by another Republican in the primary,  This seat is vulnerable and the Dem primary is very crowded.  Scott Perry is one of the most extreme election denial/"Stop the Steal" types in the Congress (Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus) and he's too far to the right for the district.

It was Trump 51-47 in 2020, voted for Shapiro by 55-43, and for Oz 49-48.

If he doesn't get defeated in 2024, this is one of the top pickup opportunities in 2026 under Trump midterm!

I think Biden doesn’t need to win this district for Perry to lose. I’m getting Scott Garret vibes here

Ahh yes, Scott Garrett, who was defeated by Josh Gottheimer in 2016.  Hopefully this Scott ends up the way that Scott ended up (:

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4425708-scott-perry-gop-house-seat-challenger-newman/

Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) being challenged by another Republican in the primary,  This seat is vulnerable and the Dem primary is very crowded.  Scott Perry is one of the most extreme election denial/"Stop the Steal" types in the Congress (Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus) and he's too far to the right for the district.

It was Trump 51-47 in 2020, voted for Shapiro by 55-43, and for Oz 49-48.

If he doesn't get defeated in 2024, this is one of the top pickup opportunities in 2026 under Trump midterm!

I think Biden doesn’t need to win this district for Perry to lose. I’m getting Scott Garret vibes here

Ahh yes, Scott Garrett, who was defeated by Josh Gottheimer in 2016.  Hopefully this Scott ends up the way that Scott ended up (:

That result on my district was one of the few good things that happened that dreadful night in 2016.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It's an understudied phenomenon that officially nonpartisan elections (of which the Nebraska legislature is just one example) tend to return significantly more liberal/Democratic-associated candidates than partisan elections do. Like, it's primarily for this reason that Nebraska's state government is much more moderate than it 'should' be.

Alaska is sort of like this as well. Wonder what it suggests about the electorate overall? Are there just tons of people who vote Republican "just because" even if they might align more with Dems in policy? Is the Democrat Party itself a huge turnoff?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1750979760396869986
Hahahahahaha

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1750979760396869986
Hahahahahaha

He's gonna lose so bad

[Roll Roons]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-endorse-candidates-house-majority-rcna135967

DCCC endorsed their first Red to Blue candidates:

AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani)
CA-13: Adam Gray (held by Rep. John Duarte)
CA-22: Rudy Salas (held by Rep. David Valadao)
CA-27: George Whitesides (held by Rep. Mike Garcia)
CA-41: Will Rollins (held by Rep. Ken Calvert)
CO-03: Adam Frisch (open seat)
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks)
IA-03: Lanon Baccam (held by Rep. Zach Nunn)
MI-07: Curtis Hertel (open seat)
MT-01: Monica Tranel (held by Rep. Ryan Zinke)
NE-02: Tony Vargas (held by Rep. Don Bacon)
NY-03: Tom Suozzi (open)
NY-17: Mondaire Jones (held by Rep. Mike Lawler)
NY-19: Josh Riley (held by Rep. Marc Molinaro)
OR-05: Janelle Bynum (held by Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer)
TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz)
VA-02: Missy Cotter Smasal (held by Rep. Jen Kiggans)

Two things I noticed: no endorsements in several highly competitive districts (AZ-01, CA-45, CA-47, MI-10, NJ-07, NY-04, NY-22, PA-10) and they're relying pretty heavily on retread candidates.

[wbrocks67]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-endorse-candidates-house-majority-rcna135967

DCCC endorsed their first Red to Blue candidates:

AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani)
CA-13: Adam Gray (held by Rep. John Duarte)
CA-22: Rudy Salas (held by Rep. David Valadao)
CA-27: George Whitesides (held by Rep. Mike Garcia)
CA-41: Will Rollins (held by Rep. Ken Calvert)
CO-03: Adam Frisch (open seat)
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks)
IA-03: Lanon Baccam (held by Rep. Zach Nunn)
MI-07: Curtis Hertel (open seat)
MT-01: Monica Tranel (held by Rep. Ryan Zinke)
NE-02: Tony Vargas (held by Rep. Don Bacon)
NY-03: Tom Suozzi (open)
NY-17: Mondaire Jones (held by Rep. Mike Lawler)
NY-19: Josh Riley (held by Rep. Marc Molinaro)
OR-05: Janelle Bynum (held by Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer)
TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz)
VA-02: Missy Cotter Smasal (held by Rep. Jen Kiggans)

Two things I noticed: no endorsements in several highly competitive districts (AZ-01, CA-45, CA-47, MI-10, NJ-07, NY-04, NY-22, PA-10) and they're relying pretty heavily on retread candidates.

Wouldn't really say "relying on" given that most of the "retread" candidates have already pretty much consolidated the contests and are the de-facto nominees even without DCCC wading in.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-endorse-candidates-house-majority-rcna135967

DCCC endorsed their first Red to Blue candidates:

AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani)
CA-13: Adam Gray (held by Rep. John Duarte)
CA-22: Rudy Salas (held by Rep. David Valadao)
CA-27: George Whitesides (held by Rep. Mike Garcia)
CA-41: Will Rollins (held by Rep. Ken Calvert)
CO-03: Adam Frisch (open seat)
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks)
IA-03: Lanon Baccam (held by Rep. Zach Nunn)
MI-07: Curtis Hertel (open seat)
MT-01: Monica Tranel (held by Rep. Ryan Zinke)
NE-02: Tony Vargas (held by Rep. Don Bacon)
NY-03: Tom Suozzi (open)
NY-17: Mondaire Jones (held by Rep. Mike Lawler)
NY-19: Josh Riley (held by Rep. Marc Molinaro)
OR-05: Janelle Bynum (held by Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer)
TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz)
VA-02: Missy Cotter Smasal (held by Rep. Jen Kiggans)

Two things I noticed: no endorsements in several highly competitive districts (AZ-01, CA-45, CA-47, MI-10, NJ-07, NY-04, NY-22, PA-10) and they're relying pretty heavily on retread candidates.

Wouldn't really say "relying on" given that most of the "retread" candidates have already pretty much consolidated the contests and are the de-facto nominees even without DCCC wading in.

And that's the important point. Many of the initial ones listed here are already in de facto GE mode. I'm not up to date on all the ones in the "noted" list but most of them have actual competitive primaries. We can debate the efficacy of wading into such contests, but such action historically has produced complaints for (at the time) unknown and varying outcomes.

To that end, I'm surprised they are wading into the NY races not currently in special elections, cause certain candidates could move districts or enter/exit races depending on the product.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Might be relevant: New Navigator Research poll shows the House Republican majority with a -29 approval rating.

[Pericles]

Damn that's a consensus among Independents. Wonder if that's even worse than Congress usually gets.

[Ferguson97]

...Zach Wilson of the New York Jets? Both are from Draper, Utah...

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1752115974260896096

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-endorse-candidates-house-majority-rcna135967

DCCC endorsed their first Red to Blue candidates:

AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (held by Rep. Juan Ciscomani)
CA-13: Adam Gray (held by Rep. John Duarte)
CA-22: Rudy Salas (held by Rep. David Valadao)
CA-27: George Whitesides (held by Rep. Mike Garcia)
CA-41: Will Rollins (held by Rep. Ken Calvert)
CO-03: Adam Frisch (open seat)
IA-01: Christina Bohannan (held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks)
IA-03: Lanon Baccam (held by Rep. Zach Nunn)
MI-07: Curtis Hertel (open seat)
MT-01: Monica Tranel (held by Rep. Ryan Zinke)
NE-02: Tony Vargas (held by Rep. Don Bacon)
NY-03: Tom Suozzi (open)
NY-17: Mondaire Jones (held by Rep. Mike Lawler)
NY-19: Josh Riley (held by Rep. Marc Molinaro)
OR-05: Janelle Bynum (held by Rep. Lori Chavez-Deremer)
TX-15: Michelle Vallejo (held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz)
VA-02: Missy Cotter Smasal (held by Rep. Jen Kiggans)

Two things I noticed: no endorsements in several highly competitive districts (AZ-01, CA-45, CA-47, MI-10, NJ-07, NY-04, NY-22, PA-10) and they're relying pretty heavily on retread candidates.

Wouldn't really say "relying on" given that most of the "retread" candidates have already pretty much consolidated the contests and are the de-facto nominees even without DCCC wading in.

Disagree about OR-5

[ajc0918]

Whitney Fox hauls $200K+ in Q4 in battle to unseat Anna Paulina Luna

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653224-whitney-fox-hauls-200k-in-q4-in-battle-to-unseat-anna-paulina-luna/

Whitney Fox, a Democrat running for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, has raised more than $200,000 for her bid.

Fox’s fundraising numbers are self-reported — financial reports aren’t due to the Federal Division of Elections until the end of the month — so details about donors aren’t yet available. But Fox’s campaign is touting its momentum early in the race, with the earnings coming over just nine weeks on the campaign trail.

Fox reported most of her donors are Florida-based and that the average ‘grassroots’ donation is just over $31.

“Pinellas County deserves representation in Congress who will lead with compassion and pragmatism, reject partisan politics, and work with others to get things done,” Fox said.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Whitney Fox hauls $200K+ in Q4 in battle to unseat Anna Paulina Luna

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653224-whitney-fox-hauls-200k-in-q4-in-battle-to-unseat-anna-paulina-luna/

Whitney Fox, a Democrat running for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, has raised more than $200,000 for her bid.

Fox’s fundraising numbers are self-reported — financial reports aren’t due to the Federal Division of Elections until the end of the month — so details about donors aren’t yet available. But Fox’s campaign is touting its momentum early in the race, with the earnings coming over just nine weeks on the campaign trail.

Fox reported most of her donors are Florida-based and that the average ‘grassroots’ donation is just over $31.

“Pinellas County deserves representation in Congress who will lead with compassion and pragmatism, reject partisan politics, and work with others to get things done,” Fox said.

Likely R, at best.

[Tekken_Guy]

Whitney Fox hauls $200K+ in Q4 in battle to unseat Anna Paulina Luna

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653224-whitney-fox-hauls-200k-in-q4-in-battle-to-unseat-anna-paulina-luna/

Whitney Fox, a Democrat running for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, has raised more than $200,000 for her bid.

Fox’s fundraising numbers are self-reported — financial reports aren’t due to the Federal Division of Elections until the end of the month — so details about donors aren’t yet available. But Fox’s campaign is touting its momentum early in the race, with the earnings coming over just nine weeks on the campaign trail.

Fox reported most of her donors are Florida-based and that the average ‘grassroots’ donation is just over $31.

“Pinellas County deserves representation in Congress who will lead with compassion and pragmatism, reject partisan politics, and work with others to get things done,” Fox said.

Likely R, at best.

This could be Lean R honestly. Luna is a weaker than normal candidate for her seat not unlike Boebert.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Whitney Fox hauls $200K+ in Q4 in battle to unseat Anna Paulina Luna

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653224-whitney-fox-hauls-200k-in-q4-in-battle-to-unseat-anna-paulina-luna/

Whitney Fox, a Democrat running for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, has raised more than $200,000 for her bid.

Fox’s fundraising numbers are self-reported — financial reports aren’t due to the Federal Division of Elections until the end of the month — so details about donors aren’t yet available. But Fox’s campaign is touting its momentum early in the race, with the earnings coming over just nine weeks on the campaign trail.

Fox reported most of her donors are Florida-based and that the average ‘grassroots’ donation is just over $31.

“Pinellas County deserves representation in Congress who will lead with compassion and pragmatism, reject partisan politics, and work with others to get things done,” Fox said.

Likely R, at best.

This could be Lean R honestly. Luna is a weaker than normal candidate for her seat not unlike Boebert.

Yes, Luna is crazy.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Whitney Fox hauls $200K+ in Q4 in battle to unseat Anna Paulina Luna

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653224-whitney-fox-hauls-200k-in-q4-in-battle-to-unseat-anna-paulina-luna/

Whitney Fox, a Democrat running for Florida’s 13th Congressional District, has raised more than $200,000 for her bid.

Fox’s fundraising numbers are self-reported — financial reports aren’t due to the Federal Division of Elections until the end of the month — so details about donors aren’t yet available. But Fox’s campaign is touting its momentum early in the race, with the earnings coming over just nine weeks on the campaign trail.

Fox reported most of her donors are Florida-based and that the average ‘grassroots’ donation is just over $31.

“Pinellas County deserves representation in Congress who will lead with compassion and pragmatism, reject partisan politics, and work with others to get things done,” Fox said.

Likely R, at best.

This could be Lean R honestly. Luna is a weaker than normal candidate for her seat not unlike Boebert.

1. Colorado and Florida are very different places.

2. Luna isn't quite as ostentacious or infamous as Boebert has become.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/HeinisHardNews/status/1753089216613941440?t=H-KBoJ-Dn3MN26M9...

Fundraising numbers from the primary in NJ-08.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1753070774536323314?t=tcILQRSCfLULick55g6eQQ&...

And more numbers from VA primaries.

[Roll Roons]

Is it fair to call Bob Good an underdog? He pissed off Trumpworld by endorsing DeSantis and he pissed off the normie Rs by being one of the “Gaetz eight.”

I get the impression that McGuire is very conservative and pretty Trumpy but wouldn’t be a troublemaker for the sake of it like Good.

[wbrocks67]

538 GCB: R+1.2
R 44.4%
D 43.2%

Recent polls:
McLaughlin: R+4 (46-42)
NBC News: R+4 (49-45)
Emerson: R+1 (43-42)
YouGov/Yahoo: tie (42-42)
YouGov/Economist: D+1 (43-42)
Clarity: D+1 (45-44)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/

[Roll Roons]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4445124-cori-bush-jamaal-bowman-squad-israel-primary/

Cori Bush was outraised by Wesley Bell and Jamaal Bowman was outraised by George Latimer. Fits with my belief that these two are the most vulnerable Squad members.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are gonna do well I believe

[GeorgiaModerate]

Victoria Spartz unretires, will seek reelection:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/reversal-rep-victoria-spartz-seek-reelection-indiana-seat-rcna137287

[Spectator]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4445124-cori-bush-jamaal-bowman-squad-israel-primary/

Cori Bush was outraised by Wesley Bell and Jamaal Bowman was outraised by George Latimer. Fits with my belief that these two are the most vulnerable Squad members.

Surprised Omar has not gotten a stronger challenger than the nobody who almost won two years ago.