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News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 43757 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: November 16, 2022, 04:59:18 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2022, 09:23:27 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2022, 11:27:06 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: December 08, 2022, 03:06:15 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2022, 07:10:38 PM »
Quote from: BenjiG98 on December 20, 2022, 06:37:08 PM
Doug Mastriano liked a tweet from a fake right-wing polling account that supposedly has him up 0.4% against Bob Casey Jr. Could Mastriano run for PA-SEN in 2024?



I have to admit that their feed is pretty funny. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2023, 03:31:11 PM »


ICYMI, Porter announced she's running for Feinstein's Senate seat.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2023, 09:30:48 AM »
The potential for a 3-way race in Arizona makes Tossup a very reasonable starting rating.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: February 22, 2023, 03:30:54 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: March 10, 2023, 04:06:13 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2023, 08:09:00 AM »
Quote from: oldtimer on May 28, 2023, 06:04:36 AM
Quote from: S019 on May 27, 2023, 03:23:42 AM
Quote from: Shaula on May 26, 2023, 02:27:20 AM
From Joe Kent's Twitter, it seems he's already got the backing of 4 country GOPs.
That's good because it means hopefully there won't be a divisive primary, which is what hurt him last time. McCarthy literally funnelled millions into attack ads on him that said he supported Bernie Sanders and Adolf Hitler completely unironically.

Joe Kent is one of the few people who could lose the seat again for Republicans lol. If Republicans were smart, they'd ask JHB to come back.
JHB will never win a GOP primary.

I don't understand the fixation of some to support people in a GOP primary that can't win those primaries, they are wasted votes that someone less moderate but less extreme could win.

I'm struggling with the combination of "less moderate but less extreme".  Can you give an example?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: May 31, 2023, 06:42:23 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: June 08, 2023, 02:32:03 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2023, 08:57:34 AM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2023, 03:40:41 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: September 07, 2023, 05:18:15 PM »


If the Georgia map is redrawn to make GA-6 (my current district) more favorable to Democrats, I think Richardson would be a good candidate, although it's possible Lucy McBath might move back to the 6th in that scenario, in which case McBath would be the strong favorite to be the nominee.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2023, 01:19:48 PM »
Quote from: Person Man on September 11, 2023, 01:07:11 PM
It’s insane how these races seem to be Lean D and the presidency is Lean R.

There's certainly no consensus that the presidency is Lean R.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: September 19, 2023, 12:05:02 PM »
Split Ticket's updated 2024 House picture: https://split-ticket.org/2023/09/19/house-temperature-check-9-18/

Summary: 22 rating changes, all to the left.  Overall: 210 D, 203 R, 22 Tossup (up from 209/207/19 in their initial ratings).  Also note:

Quote
All House ratings in states that could see mid-decade redistricting before 2024 will reflect the 2022 map until a new one is enacted. We can’t make ratings for maps that don’t exist.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2023, 10:17:23 AM »
A good ad does not necessarily make someone a good candidate.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #18 on: October 06, 2023, 05:19:36 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on October 06, 2023, 02:22:08 PM
D+1*


*in the special election, Republicans flip it back in the general.

McCarthy has already denied he's resigning and says he intends to run for reelection.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: October 15, 2023, 04:15:35 PM »
That may be the worst Congressional finance report in history.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 15, 2023, 07:38:40 PM »
Quote from: A world of orphans on October 15, 2023, 04:25:27 PM
How is it possible to raise negative money?!

Refund of contributions.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2023, 06:11:02 PM »
Quote from: Live Free or Die! on October 22, 2023, 05:51:56 PM
Quote from: WalterWhite on October 22, 2023, 05:43:45 PM
Recent history suggests that Biden is probably going to outperform Congressional Democrats. Ever since 1996, the general election right after Congressional Democrats lost their grip on Southern states, Democratic Presidential candidates have outperformed Congressional Democrats in all but one general election: 2008.

1996 was Clinton+8.5% but D+0.1% in the House
2000 was Gore+0.5% but R+0.5% in the House
2004 was Bush+2.4% but R+2.6% in the House
2008 was Obama+7.2% but D+10.6% in the House (the one exception)
2012 was Obama+3.9% but D+1.2% in the House
2016 was Clinton+2.1% but R+1.1% in the House
2020 was Biden+4.5% but D+3.1% in the House
In 2020 when Biden barely outperformed Congressional Ds, Biden had a 52% favorability. Now he’s down to 40% approvals, while Rs have a speakership debacle under their belt. Also, our likely economic environment is similar to 2008, the exception year.

Anything is possible, but considering the current state of the economy, "likely" is only in your mind here.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2023, 02:13:57 PM »
I don't think Masters is a lock to win the primary.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2023, 02:43:36 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: December 13, 2023, 04:55:02 PM »

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