2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

A good deal. Mace's 2022 primary challenger was Trumpy; I think she was even Trumpy enough, although I don't recall if she won the endorsement.

Mace won her 2022 primary…

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

A good deal. Mace's 2022 primary challenger was Trumpy; I think she was even Trumpy enough, although I don't recall if she won the endorsement.

Mace won her 2022 primary…

Well she was the incumbent and she’ll be the incumbent here as well.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

A good deal. Mace's 2022 primary challenger was Trumpy; I think she was even Trumpy enough, although I don't recall if she won the endorsement.

Mace won her 2022 primary…

Well she was the incumbent and she’ll be the incumbent here as well.

She’s a much weaker and much Trumpier incumbent than she was then.  I think the question is less if she wins or loses, it’s which of her challengers wins the race to beat her in the runoff.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/TheCalvinCooli1/status/1766557337504903429

I don’t know how much that helps in a district he lost to Nikki Haley

A good deal. Mace's 2022 primary challenger was Trumpy; I think she was even Trumpy enough, although I don't recall if she won the endorsement.

Mace won her 2022 primary…

Well she was the incumbent and she’ll be the incumbent here as well.

She’s a much weaker and much Trumpier incumbent than she was then.  I think the question is less if she wins or loses, it’s which of her challengers wins the race to beat her in the runoff.

Well Haley only won SC-01 because of a lot of Democrats crossing over to vote against Trump. Mace won’t have that sort of problem to the same extent. She could still lose but I won’t count her out.

[Roll Roons]

SMP reserving $239M in ads across seven Senate battlegrounds:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/11/senate-democrats-ads-super-pac/

$65M in OH
$42M in PA
$23M in AZ
$14M each in MI and WI

In addition to a previously announced $45M in MT and $36M in NV, and the possibility of offensive spending in FL and TX.

[Tekken_Guy]

SLF reserving $239M in ads across seven Senate battlegrounds:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/11/senate-democrats-ads-super-pac/

$65M in OH
$42M in PA
$23M in AZ
$14M each in MI and WI

In addition to a previously announced $45M in MT and $36M in NV, and the possibility of offensive spending in FL and TX.

SLF is the Republicans.

[Roll Roons]

SLF reserving $239M in ads across seven Senate battlegrounds:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/11/senate-democrats-ads-super-pac/

$65M in OH
$42M in PA
$23M in AZ
$14M each in MI and WI

In addition to a previously announced $45M in MT and $36M in NV, and the possibility of offensive spending in FL and TX.

SLF is the Republicans.

Thank you, fixed.

[wbrocks67]

Dems take the lead again, ever so slightly

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1767935392760598852

[Spectator]

SMP reserving $239M in ads across seven Senate battlegrounds:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/11/senate-democrats-ads-super-pac/

$65M in OH
$42M in PA
$23M in AZ
$14M each in MI and WI

In addition to a previously announced $45M in MT and $36M in NV, and the possibility of offensive spending in FL and TX.

The low figure in Michigan is kind of perplexing. Arizona’s and Wisconsin’s similar comparatively low figures probably indicates they think Gallego and Baldwin are a decent favorite but want to make sure.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1769838589947338789

[wbrocks67]

CA-09 and CA-49 being Lean D at this point is kind of absurd

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1771180517234204693

[Roll Roons]

CA-09 and CA-49 being Lean D at this point is kind of absurd

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1771180517234204693

To use your words, are you dense?

The article literally explains why they've made the decisions that they have. You're just salty because all of the ratings changes favor Republicans.

[kwabbit]

CA-09 and CA-49 being Lean D at this point is kind of absurd

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1771180517234204693

CA-09 had more GOP votes in the primary and the GOP actually has a good candidate. Mayor of the largest city in the district. Lean D seems appropriate, although Likely still makes sense.

CA-49 I'd keep as Likely, but Levin didn't dominate the primary. GOP doesn't have the candidate to flip it though.

[Gracile]

Cook made some rating changes yesterday, two in favor of Republicans and two in favor of Democrats-

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-mn-02-moves-likely-lean-democrat-three-other

FL-05: Likely R > Solid R
MN-02: Likely D > Lean D
NJ-03: Likely D > Solid D
VA-10: Likely D > Solid D

[lfromnj]

Why was FL05 even likely? Any good Democrat running in Jacksonville would obviously run for the 4th seat. Sure the trends on the 5th are decent for dems but its still Trump +15  and its FL.

[Tekken_Guy]

CA-09 and CA-49 being Lean D at this point is kind of absurd

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1771180517234204693

CA-09 had more GOP votes in the primary and the GOP actually has a good candidate. Mayor of the largest city in the district. Lean D seems appropriate, although Likely still makes sense.

CA-49 I'd keep as Likely, but Levin didn't dominate the primary. GOP doesn't have the candidate to flip it though.

Last time I remember Harder was doing fine in the primary.

[kwabbit]

CA-09 and CA-49 being Lean D at this point is kind of absurd

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1771180517234204693

CA-09 had more GOP votes in the primary and the GOP actually has a good candidate. Mayor of the largest city in the district. Lean D seems appropriate, although Likely still makes sense.

CA-49 I'd keep as Likely, but Levin didn't dominate the primary. GOP doesn't have the candidate to flip it though.

Last time I remember Harder was doing fine in the primary.

Late returns pushed him from 52 to under 50.

[Tekken_Guy]

CA-09 and CA-49 being Lean D at this point is kind of absurd

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1771180517234204693

CA-09 had more GOP votes in the primary and the GOP actually has a good candidate. Mayor of the largest city in the district. Lean D seems appropriate, although Likely still makes sense.

CA-49 I'd keep as Likely, but Levin didn't dominate the primary. GOP doesn't have the candidate to flip it though.

Last time I remember Harder was doing fine in the primary.

Late returns pushed him from 52 to under 50.

Come to think of it, Harder was barely above 50 in the 2022 primary and he easily won in November. I don’t think he has much to worry about and Kevin Lincoln is Allan Fung 2.0 at best.

[kwabbit]

CA-09 and CA-49 being Lean D at this point is kind of absurd

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1771180517234204693

CA-09 had more GOP votes in the primary and the GOP actually has a good candidate. Mayor of the largest city in the district. Lean D seems appropriate, although Likely still makes sense.

CA-49 I'd keep as Likely, but Levin didn't dominate the primary. GOP doesn't have the candidate to flip it though.

Last time I remember Harder was doing fine in the primary.

Late returns pushed him from 52 to under 50.

Come to think of it, Harder was barely above 50 in the 2022 primary and he easily won in November. I don’t think he has much to worry about and Kevin Lincoln is Allan Fung 2.0 at best.

Yeah, that's the best point in favor of Harder being fine. However, he was a carpetbagger in the 2022 primary and now has actually repped it, so reason to believe the primary is more correlated with the general now.

I don't think Lincoln is as strong as Fung, but the districts are extremely different. If the district wasn't below 20% college educated and heavily Hispanic, it wouldn't really be a question.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems +2 in latest YouGov poll that shows Trump up 1.

Up 24 points with 18-29 year olds and 23 with Hispanics. Fun!

Dem party favorability stands at 36-56% (-20), GOP at 33-60% (-27). Last week's YouGov also showed the GOP's unfavorability cracking 60%.

Moderate voters give the GOP a -49 favorability rating, and the Dems a -12.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_mTlzQOB.pdf

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist poll inches 538 average back to Democrats:

Democrats 44.5%
Republicans 44.3%

D+0.2

[brucejoel99]

2026/28 recruitment thread material:

https://twitter.com/MittRomney_stan/status/1773011928903815243https://twitter.com/OneJerseySchorr/status/1773055445705294229

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

2026/28 recruitment thread material:

https://twitter.com/MittRomney_stan/status/1773011928903815243https://twitter.com/OneJerseySchorr/status/1773055445705294229

It's not like you have to "move" to run in a different congressional district in the same state.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1773282815523586539
When was the last time an incumbent Democrat lost a primary from the center?

[brucejoel99]

When was the last time an incumbent Democrat lost a primary from the center?

Al Lawson beating Corrine Brown & Dwight Evans beating Chaka Fattah in 2016?