2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Hines is really trying to give it another go:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1594716591148736514

[wbrocks67]

and she's back

2018: lose
2020: win
2022: lose
2024: ?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1595062434477359106

[wbrocks67]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

[wbrocks67]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

Where is your proof of that?

[wbrocks67]

who is the best possible Dem candidate to go against Cruz in Texas Sen race in 2024 ?

Allred maybe? Or one of the Castro brothers?

[wbrocks67]

Lots of interesting tidbits in this piece including:

-GOP is trying to talk Tiffany Smiley and Joe O'Dea into running for "battleground House seats."
-Jaime Herrera Beutler and Peter Meijer are considering comeback campaigns.
-Bill G. Schuette, the young son of the former Michigan AG and recently-elected State Rep, is the desired recruit to run against Dan Kildee.
-Derrick Anderson, George Hansel, and Theresa Gavarone are being asked to run for their respective seats again.
-Democrats want Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen to run again.
-Kurt Schrader is not going to run again.
-Andy Levin not ruling out running against John James.

Agree about Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen. They were some of the strongest recruits that got close this year. Schuette is an interesting one given that he has now lost statewide and in a district. Andy Levin should absolutely run. He will easily win the primary and has lots of name ID there.

[wbrocks67]

Schuette is an interesting one given that he has now lost statewide and in a district.

Bill G. is the son who just won a State Rep race in Midland, not the former AG who lost to Whitmer in 2018.

ahhh gotcha, thanks.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1613214447551799298

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1616446373108359176

[wbrocks67]

Texas being Safe R is a little ridiculous. It'll be a heavy lift, but Cruz did terribly in 2018 and if the state continues to trend left after Biden's 5pt loss... it's not impossible

[wbrocks67]

We're like 21 months away from the 2024 Election. They shouldn't be given any semblance of seriousness until 6 months out, at the soonest.

Jessica Taylor also still hasn't commented on how they got the last cycle so wrong.

[wbrocks67]

Rosen already getting a jump, nice to see. $1.5M is extremely solid from her.

[wbrocks67]

These ratings are kind of a hot mess, it seems like Cook learned nothing from 2022.

[wbrocks67]

What doesn't make sense to me is them giving these Republicans who barely won *in a red midterm year* some type of incumbency advantage, while Ds who won these seats are Tossups? And I don't get why they're trying to predict OH and NC redistricting. Just put the seats as they are now, we don't know how that's going to shake out. OH-01 and OH-13 being "Tossups" when Landsman and Sykes won by 5-6 in 2022 is absolutely ridiculous.

Same with Manning, Jackson, and Davis in NC. Those *presently* are all Lean Democrat.

I would also venture to say that Nickel and Vasquez are closer to Lean D too.

Caraveo I think should be Lean D, but I get it being in Tossup because of how close it was. Perez, Wild, and Cartwright all are fine though again, I’m sure Wild and Cartwright will be underestimated again.

Kiggans being in Lean R makes no sense to me, she barely won that seat, and it’s a marginal Biden seat. Same with IA-03, MI-10, and NE-02. Those should all be in tossup.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

[wbrocks67]

Interesting!

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1624430030775373827

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdamForColorado/status/1625495206501154819

[wbrocks67]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

[wbrocks67]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

NC is literally "required" to be redrawn so there will be a change no matter what .

Okay, but the point still stands that we don't know what will change. So just label them as is for right now, or don't label them at all.

[wbrocks67]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

And yet Cartwright and Wild don’t get the same benefit of the doubt.

Also they think presidential turnout will help Boebert in her Trump/Polis seat but not CA-47 Dems in a Biden/Dahle seat.

Yeah, really odd that somehow Ciscomani, who is in a marginal Biden seat, barely won by like 1% is somehow Lean R, yet Cartwright/Wild, who have consistently proven people wrong, in slightly more red districts, aren't given the same benefit of the doubt?

[wbrocks67]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

And yet Cartwright and Wild don’t get the same benefit of the doubt.

Also they think presidential turnout will help Boebert in her Trump/Polis seat but not CA-47 Dems in a Biden/Dahle seat.

It is really weird. If CA-47 is a tossup, I think they are assuming a year that is way more Republican-friendly than the rest of these seats would predict. Why doesn't Cartwright get the same benefit of the doubt as Bacon? He's held on in a similarly tough seat cycle after cycle.

I do think Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean and Kiggans starting out as Lean R (until we see their oponents) is a defensible call, but Ciscomani and Boebert is a weird one to lump in with them.

Much like in 2022, it's clear these prognosticator sites are still deathly afraid of being wrong in the Democrats direction again so I'm gonna assume they're gonna keep being generous to the Rs for the foreseeable future at this point

[wbrocks67]

Split/Ticket has their 2024 House ratings out. I honestly think they have the best set yet - and continue to be much more on the ball and in tune with reality than Cook/Crystal Ball IMO. Only ones I disagree with are Bacon, Kiggans, and James being Lean R. Those 3 should all be Tossup imo. Kiggans is literally a Biden seat, and she barely won by 3 in a "red year" - that one puzzles me the most in all of these.

Also they actually stayed with the current OH and NC lines and said they'll update whenever we get new ones, exactly what cook/crystal should've done.

S/T is still new and working things out, but they definitely - at least for now - seem to suffer from much less 'pundit brain' than Cook/Crystal

https://split-ticket.org/2023/03/08/our-2024-house-ratings/

[wbrocks67]

I get being cautious, but some of these names are a bit surprising. Budzinski literally won by like 12% last year.

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1634172013362159617

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1642891905955426304

[wbrocks67]

Riley is back in - and if the Hochulmander goes thru, he'll likely have an even better district I would assume?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1645780308636340226