2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Ferguson97]

Apparently Adam Frisch is running again in 2024.

Well yeah I would expect a freshman member of Congress to run for re-election, it would be weird if he didn't.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1616446373108359176

Basically meaningless this far out, but it could tell us something about how voters are feeling about the current Congress right now.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1617840232405270528

Simultaneously having Lean D Montana and Tossup AZ is ridiculous.

[Ferguson97]

Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

I would move Wisconsin and Michigan to Likely D, and move Ohio to Likely R.

[Ferguson97]

From Joe Kent's Twitter, it seems he's already got the backing of 4 country GOPs.
That's good because it means hopefully there won't be a divisive primary, which is what hurt him last time. McCarthy literally funnelled millions into attack ads on him that said he supported Bernie Sanders and Adolf Hitler completely unironically.

Saula, why do you like Joe Kent? He's an election denier and pro-insurrectionist.

[Ferguson97]

Saula, why do you like Joe Kent? He's an election denier and pro-insurrectionist.

I imagine that's why she likes him.

I figured, I'd just like to get her to explicitly say so.

[Ferguson97]

Saula, why do you like Joe Kent? He's an election denier and pro-insurrectionist.

I imagine that's why she likes him.

True hehe. Also he's economically populist and anti-war.

You should be embarrassed to support election denying and insurrection, and your beliefs should not be tolerated in polite society.

[Ferguson97]

A massive loss. F-ck Elon.




https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1672363796487364608

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1686053589205004290

Aside from WV and PA, these are generally fair.

Likely R Texas and Tilt R WV?

Tilt D Pennsylvania and Lean D Wisconsin?

This is nonsense.

[Ferguson97]

Republican Debbie Lesco (AZ-08) will not seek re-election.

[Ferguson97]

YouGov/Yahoo has GCB tied, 43-43

YouGov/Economist has D+2, 43-41
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_uXN5Bmo.pdf

Party favorability-

Republicans: 32/57% (-25)
Democrats: 42/48% (-6)

Just more proof that the GOP is given more benefit of the doubt by the public, unfortunately. They literally have been a mess for two weeks straight and their favorability shows it, and yet they're still tied in the GCB.

If you look at the crosstabs, it's because there's a huge portion of Republicans who view their own party unfavorably

Favorability of Democrats in Congress
(among Democrats): 88% favorable / 9% unfavorable
(among Independents): 29% favorable / 52% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 8% favorable / 86% unfavorable

Favorability of Republicans in Congress
(among Democrats): 14% favorable / 79% unfavorable
(among Independents): 21% favorable / 59% unfavorable
(among Republicans): 63% favorable / 31% unfavorable

[Ferguson97]

...Zach Wilson of the New York Jets? Both are from Draper, Utah...

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1752115974260896096

[Ferguson97]

lol I guess the pregnant intern rumors were true