2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't winning NM with Martin Heinrich on ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds still lead on GCB 45/43 Emerson Rs always want to make it about inflation, they are trying to investigate Biden and not pay attention to the inflation

https://mobile.twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1595232893550399488

This solidify the blue wall for Biden in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are the odds on favs to win the H and it's too early in the S but there is a pathway for Ds to retain the Senate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Debt Ceiling fight I already know what's it gonna be it's gonna be the WV pipeline which is gonna help Manchin get reelected, Border Security the same border wall Obama and Biden built 128 m before Trump that will help Biden and they gonna extend tax cuts not make them permanent just until the next Debt Ceiling which is gonna set the Ds up perfectly for 2024 knocking off Sinema and winning the H with Biden winning the PVI 51/47 and Tester, Brown and Gallego winning  for a 218/217D H and 51/49 S

The compromise was already set up in 2012/2014 with Boehner it's in Committee already , that's why Biden is already meeting Speaker Designate McCarthy and he wins like with 216 on a technicality he will be Speaker Biden already said it

Of course I am partisan I want a 5248 D S with John Love III winning but Fetterman won PA 51/47 by the same margin Obama won in 2012 it's a 303 map

37/57 Approvals are nonsense with 4% unemployment yeah when unemployment was 10% in 2010, that's why Rs didn't get 240 4 percent unemployment, and Beasley Ryan win if Biden was on the ballot and Barnes Brown has an excellent chance of winning because Biden not DeWine is on the ballot in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

who is the best possible Dem candidate to go against Cruz in Texas Sen race in 2024 ?

Allred maybe? Or one of the Castro brothers?

Aldred already endorsed John Love he isn't risking losing his political career over a Senate run in TX but Matthew Sancrainte has a better chance of an upset Tester, Sinema, Manchin and Scott are vulnerable but it's wave insurance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can very well see this scenario playing out

Ruben Gallego
JUSTICE
Sancrainte

51/49 218/217 DH Garcia loses, win NY 17/19/22, AZ1/6 and VA 2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You know except for 2010/14 and we kept 53 Senators in 2010 we lost 60 H seats but Rs since 2006 have lost seats in either the H or the S that is a bad record 2006 LOST MO, VA, OH, PA, MT, and H seats, 2008 lost AK, nearly lost GA, NC, VA and NM, Rs lost H seats 2012 Ds held onto OH, WVA and MT, 2018 Rs lost 41 H seats, 2020 Rs lost AZ and CO and 22 Rs lost PA

It's a terrible record and to think there users on this forum totally committed still to R party

2024 we are likely to pick up FL or TX and Brown survives and Tester or Manchin win and win CA, NY Districts for a Filibuster proof Trifecta, FL totally depends on Matt Boswell some sites have him running in FL and politics 1 doesn't if he runs he will defeat Scott just like DeSantis they barely win or are vulnerable without the Rubio coalition

It's gonna be the same in 26 Collins, Tillis and Ernst are vulnerable, another R trend of LOOSING SEAT'S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Greg Landsman is the heir Apparent to Ryan now, that Ryan has lost and could challenge Vance in 28 he isn't losing as I said Has is cheap now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1605357561858891776?s=20&t=mQliAN26RGEkKYTSfIKRrA

Lol Casey is not losing Ds leading on GCB McLaughlin 48/44 proves that Casey isn't Losing

I know Rs are so obsessed with taking the S with OH, MT and WV and then we have a poll showing Casey losing I was ready to post this GCB it ms important because it's not Morning Consult it's McLaughlin whom always underpolled Ds

To fill up a jeep it 40not 100 anymore

Gas prices are 3.06 not 7.00 that's why WARNOCK improved on his November number

Why this poll doesn't matter it's called voting at the voting booth remember OZ PLUS 3 BY INSIDERS ADVANTAGE, the blue wall isn't cracked unless voters say so

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Doug Mastriano liked a tweet from a fake right-wing polling account that supposedly has him up 0.4% against Bob Casey Jr. Could Mastriano run for PA-SEN in 2024?

https://twitter.com/GOPPATRIOTPOLLS/status/1605052744951140354?s=20&t=mIgIp2...

I have to admit that their feed is pretty funny.

The poll is a joke right? Or is it a hack internal?

A poll within the MOE in a 303 state is meaningless we saw the same poll Oz plus 3 Bob Casey Jr isnt loosing, the problem for Ds is that Gas price have gone down but not inflatiom it's still 7 percent especially rent's 7/8 percent that's what I see but Biden is gonna be on the ballot and will dictate the 3o3 states and no way Mastriano wins with Biden on the ballot in 24


Santos isn't running against Zimmerman he is gonna face Suozzi

They are polling PA and NY but won't give us a KY Gov poll sad

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These are Safe D seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only good news is that if Ds lose OH, WV and MT they still can keep the Prez and take ME and NC in 26 the bad news if the RS have both H of Congress they can object to EC votes that's another option for them to get the Prez

We don't know how OH will vote with this document story it got it wrong in 22

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes we're not winning TX and FL with this Document gate going on

It's a shame no one except Matt Sancramainte has declared in FL he, Scott is vulnerable but he should win by 17 against a no name

We can he down or 48 seats but Collins, Ernst and Tillis are vulnerable in 26 ESPECIALLY since Golden is ready to do a Gallego and Collins didn't block Voting Rights in 20 she voted for Stimulus check

If Biden isn't on the ballot and Harris and Gilchrist are we have a better sgit at keeping a 51/50 S

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So Cook literally believes that MT is more likely to stay Democratic than AZ and that FL is a more plausible Democratic pick-up than TX? He really does live up to the memes.

Tester, Brown, since 2006, haven't lost yet and Daines was a much tougher opponent, to Bullock in 2020 than Zinke and Rosedale, Tester already beat Conrad, Rosedale and Rehberg and the reason why OH is a tossup not Lean R is that Vance only won because of DeWine winning by 25, DeWine won by 3 in 2018 and he Brown won, lol it's 2 yrs till Eday let's wait till polls come but we don't know the fallout from Docugate

That's why we need to wait til we Donate until the primary' Jan 24 not rush like we always due to donate to Act Blue

Ryan, Joe Kennedy, Strickland, Hillary, Bullock, Boiler Ryan all were getting early donations because of 1 person Bernie energized Donations, Hillary and Biden Capitalized on it and so did Obama get early donations but Bernie is running for reelection and since Phil Scott is Gov he won't be running for Prez if Biden doesn't run it's Harris and Gilchrist, Gilchrist wants to be S if offered he wants Veep

Users say oh I am excited over Gallego didn't learn the Strickland, Ryan, Bullock lessons they all lost with early Donations and it's 2 yrs prior to Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ratings are meaningless 2 yrs before Eday it's meaningless now with KY and MS good or bad

We saw what happened to Tim Ryan he said he was gonna win because his internal shows him winning and he Lost

That's why users keep comparing the AZ Sen race is meaningless now until next Jan 24


All we know is that Docugate shrunk the battleground TX and FL aren't gonna be competitive like it would of been otherwise

But there is the blk vote with WI, MI and PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We gotta wait for Emerson polls all the polls are gonna be bias especially Biden plus 6 over Trump but under 50% there is noway it's Biden plus six without Emerson polls they were right on every state but NV but was off in WI with Johnson plus. 5

It's called Bias polls but D's are fav to hold 290 GA isn't solid D because of DeSantis but McCormick is gom a be strong than any other Casey opponents he wins by Shapiro margins but not in 24

Biden isn't gonna win NC,  FL or TX or MO with 45%cmon man

OH, WV and MT Sen are iffy it's called split voting we need 2/3 to keep S

The problem with Biden just like all the rest Trump, Bush W is that he hasnt made America Great Again the middle class and rich are happy but there is 50M still in poverty they took away stimulus check that got people out of poverty, and Biden and Harris won on Stimulus checks, still no 20K Student loans Forgiveness, that's a blk mark he promised us 10K discharge and he lied


Otherwise he would be at 60%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a good feeling after the SOTU about D's chances again even Hannity and Trump compliment Biden, Make America Great Again with Biden Reelected we aren't that far from a Filibuster proof Trifecta 2 seats away from H majority Green, Boebert and Santos are gone and all we have to do in S is win AZ and OH and 303 and pickup MO, MO was an upset special in 2016 Kander can come within 3 and so can Kunce and MS Gov can be an upset special

Ratings don't include upsets until it gets very close to time vote User PRED do that what we make them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The RS are vulnerable because they said as soon as they got the H they would tackle inflation, well they doing just like Boehner did investigation and Boehner did Benghazi and it mattered but not to everyone's daily life, it was an overseas event and so is Hunter Biden, but TRUMP mounted an insurrection

Despite Biden low polls D's still leads on GCB 45/42

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They said Laura Kelly was gonna lose to Schmidt are we gonna keep looking at ratings no we should not, they are only a guide not the end all be all, Real clear had RS taking the Senate, because why they thought Oz was gonna win polls underestimate blk and D's support just like Biden Approvals are consistent under 50 and he beats Trump and Desantis in PPP or You Gov or Echelon polls 52/48

Brown is gonna overperform Ryan once again in 24 because Mike DeWine isn't on the ballot , he always run in more favorite environments but Vance is up in 28 and Greg Landsman can defeat him

That's why I leave OH Lean R even in this Environment OH and NC can go D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a blue wave 🌊🌊 🌊 I sense it that's why I made a Filibuster proof Trifecta why are RS losing in KY and MS they are supposed to sweep

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barb Lee is at 6 percent in the polls right now in CA, she is almost as old as Feinstein but Allred and Gilchrist of course they can win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

H is gone for RS

Senate
OH, MT, AZ LEAN D

TOSSUP

MO/WVA  

SAFE R FL/TX

I have a sneaky feeling MO is gonna be close due to KS


Newsflash it was a blue wave we won KS and AK in 22 all this 303 map stuff is hogwash and never underestimate Brown and Tester, Manchin and Kunce


That's why I rate AZ, MT and OH as Lean D and MO/WV Tossup and FL and TX S safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303/350 Map with Carolinas, KS/MO AND OH as wave insurance and sometimes AK that's 355 and 303 is the rust belt

KS and MO can vote D because Abortion is on the ballot no D have announced for G but Sen elect Kunce, Mel Carnahan, Jean Carnahan, Holden, McCaskill and Nixon and Bob Holden have been elected

SC is going first Joe Cunningham was down 49/41 and Trudy Valentine was closing in but it went R and so did Ryan and Beasley but that was a Midterm

Obama won 50/45 and won 337 EC votes 65)60 M Biden  can win by 5o/45 65/60 M and get a better map than 20

There are 65/60 M more D's than RS because older WC woman are the fastest growing D group and vote with blk and brown 55/45 D

We are only 30 percent of population and FEM account for the majority of the remain vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

LoL Biden name is on the ballot in 24 unlike in 22 Beasley and Ryan didn't campaign with Obama or Biden and lost 3/6 pts MOE and Fetterman and Shapiro and Wes Moore campaign with Jill or Joe Biden and won, Evers won and campaign with Obama so that tells you right there you are wrong, Biden polls are still low there is no agreement on Debt Ceiling and Docugate but it won't he a Red wave if 22 was a Neutral Environment and Prez yrs it's higher D not R turnout it's 65 not 50% Turnout


But, Ds are still ahead on the GCB 46/45 like last time because RS aren't doing anything on inflation like they said they were gonna do instead they act like they have a 15 not 5 seat majority and going after Hunter laptop where is their budget on the Debt Ceiling

They have to raise taxes on millionaire that's why they haven't produces anything on inflation the Trump tax cut worked it stopped 9% unemployment we are at 3% unemployment and Bush H and Clinton raised millionaire taxes with 5% unemployment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The tops for Biden is 303/350 EC votes like Obama gotten in 2012 and both Obama and Biden gotten identical PVI 50/45 80/75 M for Biden and 65/60M for Obama the Carolinas and OH are wave insurance with Brown l, Tester and Kunce have a strong chance to win S MO has Abortion on the ballot in 24 as always TX and FL are longshots and D's are divide on which blk candidate to support just like Wilson whom can make runoff in LA is the Dog

It's 300/350 EC votes not 415

It's very clear ALRED isn't running for Sen if he loses he won't have any standing in H anymore

That's why OH, AZ and MT are Tossup/Lean D and MO/WV is tossup and TX and FL are safe R, FL was so hotly contested in 2022 because of Deming's and Crist

OH and NC are opening up redistricting and DeWine isn't on the ballot that's why Brown has a better shot than Brown but don't expect any break out with polls until Debt Ceiling is resolved the polls are stagnant

Of course older WC voters are worried about Biden and the Debt Ceiling just like in 21 they hold the Prez accountable and there isn't any concrete bills like Triggers and Sequester cuts on the table like in 2012