2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AL 2, CA 27/41, CO 3, NY 3/14/17/19/ NJ 7, ARE LEAN D
Sen is 48/48 tie WV, MO, are R Lean while NEB, OH, AZ, MT are D Lean but MO, OH, MT, NEB are tossup
Govs NH and NC are D Lean

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JeremyBWhite/status/1740537436210663772

[Pollster]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

[Minnesota Mike]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

You are better plugged in than I am but I would think a Rep/Rep GE is more likely than a Dem/Dem one. I guess it just depends on whether there are more  total Republican votes than Democratic votes in the primary. FWIW in the 2022 primary Republicans had a 55-45 advantage. Of course Salas was the only Dem running and there may have been some strategic voting going on.

[GeorgiaModerate]

State Sen. Mike Dugan, once one of the most powerful Republicans in the Legislature, on Wednesday joined what’s expected to be a crowded race for a deeply conservative open U.S. House district in west Georgia.

Dugan said he will step down from his Carrollton-based Georgia Senate seat on Thursday to compete to succeed U.S. Rep. Drew Ferguson, who announced last month he was retiring from the 3rd Congressional District after four terms.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/mike-dugan-joins-us-house-race-for-georgias-3rd-district/33IQADWN2ZGT5D5RF5AQBX6NUU/

[Utah Neolib]

The Utah filing deadline is 5 days away, and Burgess Owens has yet to file for re-election or say anything one way or the other. ??

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Those seeking to out Summer Lee in the 2024 primary in PA-12 have landed a candidate who might as well be a Republican:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

[Continential]

Those seeking to out Summer Lee in the 2024 primary in PA-12 have landed a candidate who might as well be a Republican:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Bhavini Patel is the main opponent running against Lee and is supported by AIPAC.   

[ProgressiveModerate]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Unlikely. Dems in this district rely heavily on Hispanic voters that just don't show up in the primaries. Even though CA-22 is a seat that voted for Biden by double-digits, Rs almost always have the advantage in any sort of off election - including midterms.

[Tekken_Guy]

I don't know if there's a better thread to post this in (mods please move if so) but the latest rumblings are that Dems think an all-Democrat general election between Salas and Hurtado is possible in CA-22 based on polling showing Valadao extremely vulnerable to his Trum-aligned Republican challenger.

Unlikely. Dems in this district rely heavily on Hispanic voters that just don't show up in the primaries. Even though CA-22 is a seat that voted for Biden by double-digits, Rs almost always have the advantage in any sort of off election - including midterms.

On the other hand, CA-22 is usually evenly split between the two parties in primaries, making a lockout impossible on either side unless one has way more candidates than the other.

[wbrocks67]

Q4 SEN results so far

AZ-SEN:
Gallego (D): $3.3M
Lake (R): $2.1M

PA-SEN:
McCormick (R): $6.4M (includes $1M loan)

NV-SEN:
Brown (R): $1.85M

CA-SEN:
Schiff (D): $6.3M

NJ-SEN:
Murphy (D): $3.2M
Kim (D): $1.75M

[Oryxslayer]

I guess this is the best place to mention Landry put "changing from open to closed primaries" on the schedule for the upcoming special session in Louisiana (alongside redistricting). This de facto would kill the recent system famous to Louisiana, even if 50%+1 runoffs would still occur based on the November results.  Seemingly an attempt to go towards something like Georgia's present system.  Given the year this is occurring,  it would really only effect the congressional contests, and would change the dynamics of those races.

Louisiana has not always had the November jungle system.  Elected Partisans have been turning against them in recent years.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1744412647024709700?t=dH7vTOfydt9s5FbN_...

There was a flash poll in light of this proposal to gage public opinion.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1744486139807911973?t=6owIIHp99dP6kJ0TzRxV...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds should have a 51)49 S with Osborne breaking a tie or Kunce and 222 DH and a 303 map

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/reesejgorman/status/1746586429751185700

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MSchmidtRVA/status/1747611627912900850?t=1wZ8d0W7XfQpibUSlDZ...

We're starting to see a weird race emerge in the VA-05 primary.  On one side is Good, his freedom caucus friends,  and the forces of incumbency.  One the other is the large but weird Frankenstein coalition.  Hard-core Trump fans, including the man himself, are angry at Good for endorsing DeSantis. Youngkin and the state establishment hate him for going against them in 2021 and then again with candidate endorsements in 2023. The Washington GOP team hate him for ousting McCarthy and even Johnson is quickly turning against him. Then we have former congressman Rigglemans team whoare rallying donor money into a PAC for anyone who goes against Good.

And that person right now is John McGuire, a State Senator who seems like a backbencher in the making, to the point he failed to draw a challenger in 2023. This is despite district 10 being less republican than some other seats which had Dem candidates, and it's positioning between Charlottesville and Richmond.

[Roll Roons]

Has… anything like this ever happened before?
https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1747720686003478760

[Progressive Pessimist]

Has… anything like this ever happened before?
https://twitter.com/Olivia_Beavers/status/1747720686003478760

Any idea if he is going to do this from her left or right?

[MarkD]

Has… anything like this ever happened before?

Yes, I can remember when Tim Ryan ran against Jim Traficant. Ryan had been on Traficant's staff.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1749846114465886629

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1749849233983762479

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Blood vs. Flood

[Atlas Force]

Blood vs. Flood

How did I not realize that

[Vosem]

It's an understudied phenomenon that officially nonpartisan elections (of which the Nebraska legislature is just one example) tend to return significantly more liberal/Democratic-associated candidates than partisan elections do. Like, it's primarily for this reason that Nebraska's state government is much more moderate than it 'should' be.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Blood is definitely one of those "Republican-looking" Democratic politicians.

[Oryxslayer]

State Senator  Cleo Fields of EBR is running for the new LA-06. He probably won't be the only one, but he is the one that that Governor "wanted" when he authorized the general shape of the new map.


One surprising fact about him is that he is the same guy who Represented the computer-drawn octopus AA packs of the 90s before they got chucked by racial gerrymandering suits led by White Blue Dog Dems. Before that, and then afterwards, he has served close to continuously in EBR's SD14 dodging term limits laws when it mattered.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4425708-scott-perry-gop-house-seat-challenger-newman/

Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA) being challenged by another Republican in the primary,  This seat is vulnerable and the Dem primary is very crowded.  Scott Perry is one of the most extreme election denial/"Stop the Steal" types in the Congress (Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus) and he's too far to the right for the district.

It was Trump 51-47 in 2020, voted for Shapiro by 55-43, and for Oz 49-48.

If he doesn't get defeated in 2024, this is one of the top pickup opportunities in 2026 under Trump midterm!