2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

When was the last time an incumbent Democrat lost a primary from the center?

Al Lawson beating Corrine Brown & Dwight Evans beating Chaka Fattah in 2016?

Marie Newman, although that was member vs. member after redistricting.

Either way, I don't think this would have been done if the group didn't see polls indicating these two are dunzo. It's a big risk. The Squad actively going against Biden during an election year likely changed the calculus a lot.

[Tekken_Guy]

When was the last time an incumbent Democrat lost a primary from the center?

Al Lawson beating Corrine Brown & Dwight Evans beating Chaka Fattah in 2016?

Marie Newman, although that was member vs. member after redistricting.

Either way, I don't think this would have been done if the group didn't see polls indicating these two are dunzo. It's a big risk. The Squad actively going against Biden during an election year likely changed the calculus a lot.

Does the GOP have a track record of primarying out kooks with more normal republicans? King to Feenstra and Cawthorn to Edwards are the two I can think of. Hopefully Boebert goes down in June.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

When was the last time an incumbent Democrat lost a primary from the center?

Al Lawson beating Corrine Brown & Dwight Evans beating Chaka Fattah in 2016?

Marie Newman, although that was member vs. member after redistricting.

Either way, I don't think this would have been done if the group didn't see polls indicating these two are dunzo. It's a big risk. The Squad actively going against Biden during an election year likely changed the calculus a lot.

Does the GOP have a track record of primarying out kooks with more normal republicans? King to Feenstra and Cawthorn to Edwards are the two I can think of. Hopefully Boebert goes down in June.

Those are the only ones I can think of. Boebert is done, because she carpetbagged to another district with no interest in her antics. The next Congress will be down at least three crazies.

[Tekken_Guy]

When was the last time an incumbent Democrat lost a primary from the center?

Al Lawson beating Corrine Brown & Dwight Evans beating Chaka Fattah in 2016?

Marie Newman, although that was member vs. member after redistricting.

Either way, I don't think this would have been done if the group didn't see polls indicating these two are dunzo. It's a big risk. The Squad actively going against Biden during an election year likely changed the calculus a lot.

Does the GOP have a track record of primarying out kooks with more normal republicans? King to Feenstra and Cawthorn to Edwards are the two I can think of. Hopefully Boebert goes down in June.

Those are the only ones I can think of. Boebert is done, because she carpetbagged to another district with no interest in her antics. The next Congress will be down at least three crazies.

You also have Victoria Spartz and Nancy Mace of Spartz/Mace cycle fame.

[ajc0918]

Dems land decent recruit against Laurel Lee (FL-15):

Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp says she will announce at a Democratic Party fundraiser Saturday night that she plans to run for the Congressional District 15 seat held by Republican Laurel Lee.

Kemp said she was heavily recruited for the run by national and state-level Democratic organizations and considers the seat winnable.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/hillsborough/2024/03/29/hillsborough-democrat-pat-kemp-challenge-laurel-lee-congress/

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/magent_a_b/status/1773757317617500243

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/magent_a_b/status/1773757317617500243

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1773745713828053337

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

An internal poll done by the Tony Vargas campaign for NE-02 has him leading Rep. Don Bacon 46-43%

If the Democrats are going to flip any seats this year, this one will be at the top of the list.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/03/29/vargas-poll-shows-another-tight-u-s-house-race-with-bacon-in-nebraskas-2nd-district/

[Roll Roons]

So I see people have not learned anything about taking Democratic internals at their word.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So I see people have not learned anything about taking Democratic internals at their word.

So only Dem internals are bs?

It's not like this type of a result for a district like this is crazy and hard to believe.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rule of thumb on any internal: move the margin a few points (I generally think 4-6) in favor of the opposing party.  Conclusion: it's a close race, which I think is no surprise.

[wesmoorenerd]

Rule of thumb on any internal: move the margin a few points (I generally think 4-6) in favor of the opposing party.  Conclusion: it's a close race, which I think is no surprise.

I generally don't like the practice of trying to unskew internals -- rather, I think they should broadly be given less credence than public polling.

[wbrocks67]

Peltola raised $1.7M in Q1

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/mary-peltola-alaska-2024-election

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Ron Eller EASILY defeats Andrew Smith in a surprisingly large victory in the MS-02 primary. He now has the prestige of taking on Bennie Thompson in the general election. The current rating for this seat is Safe D, but Thompson had his worst performance since 2004 last year with the black belt trending R. In the process, he finally lost Warren county (home of Vicksburg). It is possible that Eller could crack 40% this year and hold Thompson under 60% this year if he plays his cards right.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1775532126974480738

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1775554864069710251

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

New poll in the NY16 Democratic primary has County Executive George Latimer up 17 points over Rep. Jamaal Bowman. Caveat: the survey was conducted by the Democratic Majority for Israel, which is staunchly pro-Latimer and essentially makes it an internal, but Latimer is a titan in Westchester county politics, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual result ends up being this lopsided.

https://twitter.com/joelweingart_/status/1775649321196605587?s=46

[UncleSam]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1775554864069710251

Idk Nevada is kinda like a reverse Florida. Always close for Rs, but there are just a few more Dems in the state and it’s trending towards Dems.

It would take a pretty significant polling gap for me to think of this as even a toss up tbh.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1775554864069710251

Makes no sense to put this at tossup before moving Montana to Lean R, moving Ohio to Lean R, or even moving Michigan to tossup frankly.

[Lief 🗽]

What a moron Bowman turned out to be. He was all set to be a rising star in the party, but he had to throw his lot in with the anti-Biden, pro-Hamas faction, and now he’ll just be an embarrassing footnote.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems are up to a 0.5 lead on the 538 generic ballot aggregator this morning.

And in typical RCP fashion, the Republicans still somehow have a 1.4 point lead over on their aggregate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1775554864069710251

Makes no sense to put this at tossup before moving Montana to Lean R, moving Ohio to Lean R, or even moving Michigan to tossup frankly.

Especially since literally notable nothing changed in the race in a way that would hurt Rosen. Bidens poll numbers have been improving, he did fine the NV primary, her fundraising has been strong, and she's continued to lead in polls.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1773308283102589231?s=20

IA-03 is def interesting; I think many people overestimate how red the district actually is, especially since Miller-Meeks literally won by 6 votes in 2020 (underperforming Trump) and didn't do all that impressive in 2022.

Still, it's an uphill battle and I'd say Trump probably carries IA-03 again Presidentially; really the only good part of the district for Dems at this point is Johnson County and idk how many more votes they can squeeze out of it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Split Ticket moves OH-SEN from Lean R to Tossup: https://split-ticket.org/2024/04/09/temperature-check-ohio-senate/