2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Apparently Adam Frisch is running again in 2024.

[Ferguson97]

Apparently Adam Frisch is running again in 2024.

Well yeah I would expect a freshman member of Congress to run for re-election, it would be weird if he didn't.

[Spectator]

Apparently Adam Frisch is running again in 2024.

Figured he would, but I don’t think he is the strongest option. Could win anyway though if Colorado  trends continue.

[It’s so Joever]

Apparently Adam Frisch is running again in 2024.

Meh I don’t think he should. I get why he wants to but I think a new candidate would be better. Someone from Grand Junction or Pueblo.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1592977190064365568

[Roll Roons]

https://indypolitics.org/senator-banks/

Banks will apparently run for Senate if Braun goes for Governor as expected.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/sarahnferris/status/1592977190064365568

Late but I feel like this is the second strongest sign that Feinstein is retiring (the number one sign being declining the position of President Pro Tempore)

[wbrocks67]

Hines is really trying to give it another go:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1594716591148736514

[Gass3268]

Hines is really trying to give it another go:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1594716591148736514

Will probably get a safe seat after re-redistricting.

[S019]

Hines is really trying to give it another go:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1594716591148736514

Will probably get a safe seat after re-redistricting.

For reference, the struck down seat was Trump+7, Robinson+7, Tillis+6, O’Neill+4, Forest+0. So Democrats other than Cooper struggled here but it isn’t red enough that Wiley would be totally DOA, probably Likely R.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hines is really trying to give it another go:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1594716591148736514

Will probably get a safe seat after re-redistricting.

But will Hines make it through the primary?

[wbrocks67]

and she's back

2018: lose
2020: win
2022: lose
2024: ?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1595062434477359106

[Atlas Force]

and she's back

2018: lose
2020: win
2022: lose
2024: ?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1595062434477359106

The next Frank Guinta?

[Tekken_Guy]

and she's back

2018: lose
2020: win
2022: lose
2024: ?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1595062434477359106

The next Frank Guinta?

More like the next Nan Hayworth. The map is in no danger of being struck down and the district isn’t getting any redder.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't winning NM with Martin Heinrich on ballot

[BloJo94]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1592773378124877824
https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1592608543730847744

[Roll Roons]

Initial target list for Dems:
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/23/house-democrats-2024-districts-biden-republicans

AZ-01 (Schweikert)
AZ-06 (Ciscomani)
CA-27 (Garcia
CA-40 (Kim)
CA-41 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Steel)
IA-03 (Nunn)
MI-10 (James)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-07 (Kean)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NY-03 (Santos)
NY-04 (D'Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
NY-22 (Williams)
OR-05 (Chavez-DeRemer)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick). I needed a laugh
VA-02 (Kiggans)

[lfromnj]

Basically just the Biden seats + IA 3rd,MI 10th and CA 41.

[Tekken_Guy]

Initial target list for Dems:
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/23/house-democrats-2024-districts-biden-republicans

AZ-01 (Schweikert)
AZ-06 (Ciscomani)
CA-27 (Garcia
CA-40 (Kim)
CA-41 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Steel)
IA-03 (Nunn)
MI-10 (James)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-07 (Kean)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NY-03 (Santos)
NY-04 (D'Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
NY-22 (Williams)
OR-05 (Chavez-DeRemer)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick). I needed a laugh
VA-02 (Kiggans)

I imagine the list will expand. Valadao and Duarte probably weren’t called when the list was made but I think they get onto the list when they are. Boebert may also be on this given how close her race was.

A lot of the narrow Trump seat Republicans (i.e. Garbarino, Perry, Huizenga, Steil, Van Orden, Lee, Hinson, Miller-Meeks, De La Cruz, Kiley) will be added shortly. And Zinke too given his underperformance.

Those in mid to upper single digits (Malliotakis, Wittman, Good, Mace, Bean, Mills, Luna, Gonzales, Wagner, Finstad, Crane, Obernolte) seem like potential sleepers. So might some double digit Trump seats with bad trends for the GOP (Harris, McCormick, Ogles, Van Duyne, Self, Flood, Lamborn)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds still lead on GCB 45/43 Emerson Rs always want to make it about inflation, they are trying to investigate Biden and not pay attention to the inflation

https://mobile.twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1595232893550399488

This solidify the blue wall for Biden in 24

[coloradocowboi]

Initial target list for Dems:
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/23/house-democrats-2024-districts-biden-republicans

AZ-01 (Schweikert)
AZ-06 (Ciscomani)
CA-27 (Garcia
CA-40 (Kim)
CA-41 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Steel)
IA-03 (Nunn)
MI-10 (James)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-07 (Kean)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NY-03 (Santos)
NY-04 (D'Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
NY-22 (Williams)
OR-05 (Chavez-DeRemer)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick). I needed a laugh
VA-02 (Kiggans)

I imagine the list will expand. Valadao and Duarte probably weren’t called when the list was made but I think they get onto the list when they are. Boebert may also be on this given how close her race was.

A lot of the narrow Trump seat Republicans (i.e. Garbarino, Perry, Huizenga, Steil, Van Orden, Lee, Hinson, Miller-Meeks, De La Cruz, Kiley) will be added shortly. And Zinke too given his underperformance.

Those in mid to upper single digits (Malliotakis, Wittman, Good, Mace, Bean, Mills, Luna, Gonzales, Wagner, Finstad, Crane, Obernolte) seem like potential sleepers. So might some double digit Trump seats with bad trends for the GOP (Harris, McCormick, Ogles, Van Duyne, Self, Flood, Lamborn)

I think the TX gerrymander should hold a while yet, but Self might be worth looking into because it seems like the evangelicals are the most toxic part of the GOP coalition in the suburbs

[Pericles]

Fitzpatrick did win by less than 2020, huh.

[Roll Roons]

Fitzpatrick did win by less than 2020, huh.

He outran the top of the ticket by a lot more than he did in 2020. Mastriano lost that district by like 20 while Trump only lost it by 6.

[wesmoorenerd]

IMO:

Top Targets

AZ-01 Schweikert
AZ-06 Ciscomani
CA-13 Duarte
CA-22 Valadao
CA-27 Garcia
CA-45 Steel
IA-03 Nunn
MI-10 James
NE-02 Bacon
NJ-07 Kean
NY-03 Santos
NY-04 D'Esposito
NY-17 Lawler
NY-19 Molinaro
NY-22 Williams
OR-05 Chavez-DeRemer
VA-02 Kiggans

Second Tier Targets

CA-03 Kiley
CA-40 Kim
CA-41 Calvert
CO-03 Boebert
IA-01 Miller-Meeks
IA-02 Hinson
MT-01 Zinke
NY-01 LaLota
PA-01 Fitzpatrick
PA-10 Perry
TX-15 De La Cruz
WI-01 Steil
WI-03 Van Orden

Reach Targets/Worth Investment

AZ-02 Crane
FL-13 Luna
FL-27 Salazar
MI-04 Huizenga
MO-02 Wagner
NC-11 Edwards

I wouldn't put Kim, LaLota, or Fitzpatrick as first tier targets since they all won by double digits, or close to double digits. Calvert's seat didn't end up being quite as promising as it looked when the count started. Still, though, all four deserve to be firmly in that second tier.

Wouldn't dream of contesting Garbarino or Lee's seats when they both just won by around 20 against non-token opposition. If the Dems want to rebuild their strength in Long Island and Florida, they're going to need to take some baby steps first. Focus on D'Esposito, Santos, and maybe LaLota first in LI and target Luna in FL. Anything past that is probably folly at this point.

[Roll Roons]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)