2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Tekken_Guy]

Hines is really trying to give it another go:

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1594716591148736514

Will probably get a safe seat after re-redistricting.

But will Hines make it through the primary?

[Tekken_Guy]

and she's back

2018: lose
2020: win
2022: lose
2024: ?

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1595062434477359106

The next Frank Guinta?

More like the next Nan Hayworth. The map is in no danger of being struck down and the district isn’t getting any redder.

[Tekken_Guy]

Initial target list for Dems:
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/23/house-democrats-2024-districts-biden-republicans

AZ-01 (Schweikert)
AZ-06 (Ciscomani)
CA-27 (Garcia
CA-40 (Kim)
CA-41 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Steel)
IA-03 (Nunn)
MI-10 (James)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-07 (Kean)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NY-03 (Santos)
NY-04 (D'Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
NY-22 (Williams)
OR-05 (Chavez-DeRemer)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick). I needed a laugh
VA-02 (Kiggans)

I imagine the list will expand. Valadao and Duarte probably weren’t called when the list was made but I think they get onto the list when they are. Boebert may also be on this given how close her race was.

A lot of the narrow Trump seat Republicans (i.e. Garbarino, Perry, Huizenga, Steil, Van Orden, Lee, Hinson, Miller-Meeks, De La Cruz, Kiley) will be added shortly. And Zinke too given his underperformance.

Those in mid to upper single digits (Malliotakis, Wittman, Good, Mace, Bean, Mills, Luna, Gonzales, Wagner, Finstad, Crane, Obernolte) seem like potential sleepers. So might some double digit Trump seats with bad trends for the GOP (Harris, McCormick, Ogles, Van Duyne, Self, Flood, Lamborn)

[Tekken_Guy]

On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

Almost none of these are going anywhere in a presidential year. Sure, PA-08, WA-03, and OH-09 could always fall most of the others other went for Biden or solidly went for him.

Except we don't know what the environment will look like in 2024. It could be a d leaning year, a red leaning year or a red tsunami.

Why not a blue tsunami?

Should have put that lol. It would be unprecedented for a Blue tsunami with a dem president but hey, this year was unprecedented too

Biden: the reverse Ronald Reagan?

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1598153066293104641

Todd Rokita?

[Tekken_Guy]

Kemp running for Senate seems like a Sununu-type situation, where any positive momentum they had as governor could seriously run into issues in a more partisan senate run. Kemp got away with hiding a lot of his super conservative positions this time around as Governor; he wouldn't be able to do that in a senate run.

I think Kemp's biggest problems is the state's demographics

Kemp is a strong candidate whereas Ossof is not. If 2026 is a Biden midterm, the race starts as lean R at the very least.

Where is your proof of that?

Well, Ossof underperformed Biden in the general and then underperformed Warnock (granted by a smaller margin) in the runoff.

Kemp's biggest problem at this point is that Georgia may be too blue for him to win by 2026. Think Virginia by the mid-2010s.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/StuPolitics/status/1598153066293104641

Todd Rokita?

Marlin Stutzman and Richard Mourdock.

Maybe Stutzman goes for his old house seat in 2024. Or maybe his wife does instead.

[Tekken_Guy]

Lots of interesting tidbits in this piece including:

-GOP is trying to talk Tiffany Smiley and Joe O'Dea into running for "battleground House seats."
-Jaime Herrera Beutler and Peter Meijer are considering comeback campaigns.
-Bill G. Schuette, the young son of the former Michigan AG and recently-elected State Rep, is the desired recruit to run against Dan Kildee.
-Derrick Anderson, George Hansel, and Theresa Gavarone are being asked to run for their respective seats again.
-Democrats want Hodge, Engel, Rollins, and Chen to run again.
-Kurt Schrader is not going to run again.
-Andy Levin not ruling out running against John James.

-Smiley and O’Dea don’t even live in battleground seats. There’s been talk of her running against Newhouse but unless he retires she’ll only have the MAGA wing behind her, assuming she isn’t competing with the also-rans from the 2022 primary. But a run against Perez or Schrier is a blatant carpetbag.
-Interesting the GOP is favoring Gavarone over Riedel. He finished ahead of her in the primary and a redraw would be way more favorable to him if it’s Lucas and western rurals.
-NH-02 is not worth it.

[Tekken_Guy]

Chabot says he will NOT run in a rematch for his old OH-01 seat.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1603118576319217666

Is this a sign that the Cincy sink will happen?

[Tekken_Guy]

Schweikert is running in the Tucson district in the southeast in 2024, weird.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1604845417815891968

That is the district with the number of Schweikert’s outgoing district.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/michelle_shen10/status/1624049219613990912

The DCCC should be going all out recruiting Anthony Brindisi. Not getting him back in the race when Katko announced his retirement was one of the biggest blunders they made last cycle.

[Tekken_Guy]

Why can't Cook and Crystal Ball just leave OH/NC as is for now. There hasn't been any changes, and we don't know what changes will look like. Can't you just rate them as they are right now, and then update them later? Seems messy to just say "oh we'll just stick them here and give them different ratings bc we don't know what will happen"

I disagree with a bunch of the Lean Rs... Ciscomani, Nunn, James, Bacon, Kean, and Kiggans should all be tossup IMO.

And yet Cartwright and Wild don’t get the same benefit of the doubt.

Also they think presidential turnout will help Boebert in her Trump/Polis seat but not CA-47 Dems in a Biden/Dahle seat.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1628758577362894849?cxt=HHwWgoCwyf3SwZotAAAA

I think these are generally reasonable.

Katie Porter’s seat a toss-up? Biden won it by 11 points and downballot lag is like 6-7 points at best here. They have Levin at Likely D in a nearly identical seat. They shouldn’t be separated by more than 1 rating TBH.

By this logic Boebert’s seat should be a toss up because she won a Trump+8 seat by 0.1.

[Tekken_Guy]

Split/Ticket has their 2024 House ratings out. I honestly think they have the best set yet - and continue to be much more on the ball and in tune with reality than Cook/Crystal Ball IMO. Only ones I disagree with are Bacon, Kiggans, and James being Lean R. Those 3 should all be Tossup imo. Kiggans is literally a Biden seat, and she barely won by 3 in a "red year" - that one puzzles me the most in all of these.

Also they actually stayed with the current OH and NC lines and said they'll update whenever we get new ones, exactly what cook/crystal should've done.

S/T is still new and working things out, but they definitely - at least for now - seem to suffer from much less 'pundit brain' than Cook/Crystal

https://split-ticket.org/2023/03/08/our-2024-house-ratings/

Elections Daily is also less pundit brainy
https://elections-daily.com/2023/02/27/elections-dailys-inaugural-2024-house-ratings/

They have Bacon and Kiggans at toss-ups, but all four of them have James (and Boebert) at Lean R. They’re also the only ones with Wagner, Wittman, and Garbarino on the board.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1634277726981967875

On what planet are Yadira Caraveo and Gabe Vasquez in toss-up races? Biden won both districts and Vasquez ousted an incumbent in a Ronchetti district.

Since after WA-03 and MI-07 (I’d say that starts at Tilt D), there aren’t many options to choose from for blue seats to put into the tossup category. They probably wanted to throw a couple on so as not to be accused of bias.

Most will just go for the PA seats.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

this already didn't age well given the above post

Fundraising =/= results.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

this already didn't age well given the above post

Fundraising =/= results.

Kean barely won last year, and 2024 will be a presidential year - not sure why he's seen as so strong?

Yes Kean is beatable, but against Altman he should have no trouble being re-elected.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1663855590261809152

Congratulations to Tom Kean Jr. on winning re-election.

this already didn't age well given the above post

Fundraising =/= results.

Kean barely won last year, and 2024 will be a presidential year - not sure why he's seen as so strong?

Yes Kean is beatable, but against Altman he should have no trouble being re-elected.

There's of course no reason to believe that Altman is a juggernaut per se, but dismissing out of hand one of the few people to successfully take on the Norcross New Jersey machine (many have tried) is at best premature and at worst nonsensical.

OK. Yes, Altman can win but Kean is very much favored right now.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/SJVSun/status/1683527717046632449?s=20

Seeing a bunch of Twitter (X?) commentary that is very off base; not that I suspect anything here would be comparable, but I thought I'd head it off nevertheless. Hurtado's district is basically a bigger, and therefore less blue, CA-22; her winning her Biden+8 seat while Newsom lost it by double digits, even if the win was narrow, in 2022 was extremely impressive. Probably the best possible recruit for this seat.

I would have expected her to wait until 2026 when she’s termed out. If she wins in 2024 she’ll leave behind a Biden+8 State Senate district that’ll be very hard for Democrats to hold onto given how awful Hispanic turnout is in these types of election. Case in point, Mike Garcia 2020.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/SJVSun/status/1683527717046632449?s=20

Seeing a bunch of Twitter (X?) commentary that is very off base; not that I suspect anything here would be comparable, but I thought I'd head it off nevertheless. Hurtado's district is basically a bigger, and therefore less blue, CA-22; her winning her Biden+8 seat while Newsom lost it by double digits, even if the win was narrow, in 2022 was extremely impressive. Probably the best possible recruit for this seat.

I would have expected her to wait until 2026 when she’s termed out. If she wins in 2024 she’ll leave behind a Biden+8 State Senate district that’ll be very hard for Democrats to hold onto given how awful Hispanic turnout is in these types of election. Case in point, Mike Garcia 2020.

She’s not termed out until 2030. She probably saw 2024 as a no-risk, high-reward free shot without having to give up her seat. And probably doesn’t really care if the seat is lost in a special if she were to win the House seat.

That was my mistake. I thought California term limits were 8 years, not 12.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'll echo the above. Even if Trump wins PA, it's not hard to see Casey run at least a few points ahead of the top of the ticket. Pennsylvania is the most deserving on that list to be in the Likely category except perhaps WV.

With this latest indictment it’s more likely Trump isn’t the nominee than it is that he wins Pennsylvania.

[Tekken_Guy]

Hmm: https://twitter.com/BecauseMiami/status/1695051876926959860

Both are incredibly popular - Cava probably just runs for Gimenez's open seat instead.

She’s a Democrat so it’ll be tough for her to win that seat. Ana Maria Rodriguez would be the favorite if she were to run.

[Tekken_Guy]

This is Kent's launch ad:

https://twitter.com/joekent16jan19/status/1706708177578762427
Does this really look like a weak candidate?

He already lost to her in an election he really should have had no business being defeated in. I'd say that makes him a bit weaker this time around.

Watch the advertisement itself. It looks much better than ie McCormick or Cao's launch ads, or any ad that DeSantis has been running.

Last time the party was not unified, as Kent was accused of being a Bernie Bro. Perez is also a weak candidate that gives off Hillary Clinton vibes.

Yes, Perez is so weak that she was one of the few people in American history to flip a seat for the President’s party in a midterm that her party’s president actually lost two years prior.

It isn't actually that rare. We've seen Gwen Graham do the same in 2014.

Apparently rare enough it didn't happen in 16, 18, or 20.

Brad Ashford also did it in 2014. 2016 and 2020 are presidential years so they’re hard to apply, but Scott Garrett lost re-election at the same time as Trump was carrying his seat at the presidential level, and a lot of Biden seats in CA, and one in FL, saw D incumbents lose in 2020. 2018 only flipped two seats in rural Minnesota and a redrawn seat in PA.