Election models megathread

[Brittain33]

Their house prediction right now is 223-212 in GOP's favor. I could definitely buy that right now.

Agreed, that's where my gut is. A Republican House by about as narrow a margin as Pelosi had, but not too close.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

LOL the Economist is a joke. They had gave Biden a 97% chance of winning the EC in 2020. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania were Safe Dem, Florida and North Carolina Likely. This Senate map gives Fetterman a better chance than Rubio and Vance. You can safely disregard anything they predict.

Here's their 2020 prediction: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

If you follow the creators of this they've done a fair bit to try to take into account their mistakes from 2020.

That being said, I'm not quite as optimistic for Dems to take the Senate as these are. I'm closer to the 538 model position, maybe even a bit more cautious than 538.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

[Reactionary Libertarian]

If you follow the creators of this they've done a fair bit to try to take into account their mistakes from 2020.

That being said, I'm not quite as optimistic for Dems to take the Senate as these are. I'm closer to the 538 model position, maybe even a bit more cautious than 538.

If they corrected their mistakes in 2020, there's no way they would come up with this model. It just makes no sense. One of the things they take into account is fundraising dollars- but politically hyperaware left leaning voters give way more than righties and centrists. Dems are pouring money into races like Ohio that they have no chance of winning. At least they seem to have learned their lesson in Florida, finally....

Oh, and the GOP is favored in the Senate.

[Orser67]

I don't strongly disagree with the Economist's percentages, though they're a bit more optimistic on Senate Democrats than I am. But I don't know if I'll ever be able to take G. Elliot Morris (the main guy behind The Economist model) seriously again after he declared victory in the immediate aftermath of the election, as if giving Biden a 97% chance of victory was a thing to be proud of. I would've respected a mea culpa a lot more.

[Devils30]

A lot of House models still have Molinaro as the favorite in NY-19 which considering the new district lines, is silly.

[BG-NY]

While I think there is some nonresponse bias from republicans and r-leaning independents/moderates in polls, it's undeniable that Dobbs - and ALMOST ENTIRELY Dobbs - turned the tides here. This has nothing to

There will be a big discussion in the post-mortem about whether it was smart for republican legislatures to risk trigger laws going into place, rather than running an educational and persuasion campaign in favor of their position.

(Wish the republicans would fight for my issues, but I guess that's why I'm an independent. They are content being a minority party.)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

If you follow the creators of this they've done a fair bit to try to take into account their mistakes from 2020.

That being said, I'm not quite as optimistic for Dems to take the Senate as these are. I'm closer to the 538 model position, maybe even a bit more cautious than 538.

If they corrected their mistakes in 2020, there's no way they would come up with this model. It just makes no sense. One of the things they take into account is fundraising dollars- but politically hyperaware left leaning voters give way more than righties and centrists. Dems are pouring money into races like Ohio that they have no chance of winning. At least they seem to have learned their lesson in Florida, finally....

Oh, and the GOP is favored in the Senate.

What?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fixed the broken quote in a couple of the above posts which should make them more readable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 gives D's a 70/30 chance because it's 51/44 WI, PA leans D while OH, NC, FL, GA, UT are tossup and we can win IN and LA too

Anyone that say we can't win Red states we just won AK and it doesn't have Latinos or Blks, OH, FL, NC, IN and LA and GA do we are the balance of power 5/6% not the majority

[2016]

RealClearPolitics Projection

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania?  Really?

[2016]

Pennsylvania?  Really?

The thing is: Republicans don't need Pennsylvania. If they lose PA but win GA, NV and hold everything else they have the Senate. Both NV & PA looking better recently for Democrats.

[soundchaser]

Pennsylvania?  Really?

RealObtusePolitics

[John Dule]

The Economist finally has their model online: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022.

Senate: 78% D

House: 74% R

Weird that they have Ohio closer than Wisconsin. To me this suggests that their model follows the raw polling more than 538's does (which factors in trends and such).

[John Dule]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

The Wisconsin one I can kind of understand if their model is giving a lot of weight to election analyst ratings like Cook, Inside Elections, Crystal Ball, and whatnot, but the Pennsylvania one really does seem nonsensical given that none of the professional analysts currently have PA rated as leaning Republican.

[Sir Mohamed]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because RCP is not a neutral site. It had an R-bias for quite some time, especially with the duration of including certain pollsters in polling averages.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because ackshauly you have to weigh polls 10 points to the right because of  populism

[Torie]

Pennsylvania?  Really?

PA is a rolling cannon on the deck. Fetterman has felt the need to agree to debates. As to percentage outcomes, it may have the flattest bell curve of them all. In a cycle that has considerable more than the normal share of strange races, this is the strangest of them all. That's my take.

[President Johnson]

FiveThirtyEight: Democrats up to 71% in the senate, Republicans down to 73% in the House. You love to see the trendline!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

FiveThirtyEight: Democrats up to 71% in the senate, Republicans down to 73% in the House. You love to see the trendline!

Dems up to 80% in classic, 28 in House.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

FiveThirtyEight: Democrats up to 71% in the senate, Republicans down to 73% in the House. You love to see the trendline!

Those completely insane Echelon polls probably having more of an impact than they should.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FiveThirtyEight: Democrats up to 71% in the senate, Republicans down to 73% in the House. You love to see the trendline!

Those completely insane Echelon polls probably having more of an impact than they should.

They're not insane they are internet polls just like Impact polls are internet, Ryan has been getting tons of Donations like Beto on the internet that's why he is leading by 9 in Impact and 6 in Echelon Emerson and TRAFALGAR uses Phone polls that's why they are inflated but Oz and Masters are DONE, Rs winning PA and NV after every poll has Oz at least 6 pts down and CCM is averaging 3 ahead that's why we need to VOTE

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

FiveThirtyEight: Democrats up to 71% in the senate, Republicans down to 73% in the House. You love to see the trendline!

And now they are both 72!