The GOP will win the House...update: it may be a tossup

[°Leprechaun]

Original OP:
..or not?

Any guesses on the numbers and when we will know?

It may be a long time, although probably within a week or two.

MSNBC is predicting about a 222-213 GOP win, plus or minus seven.

I think that the Democrats will get somewhere between 213-218...
so I predict that they will get 213.

Update:
The race is tightening

Original title:
The GOP will win the House...

New title:
The GOP will win the House...update: it may be a tossup

[here2view]

Right now based on all the calls I've accumulated from various sites (some have called a given race, others haven't) I have Republicans leading 211 — 203.

There are 21 unsettled races, of which Republicans are leading 11 and Democrats 10.

I expect the GOP to finish with ~220 seats.

[°Leprechaun]

Although the House still leans GOP, it is tightening:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/11/democrats-house-midterm-elections-00066436

and MSNBC is now predicting (projecting) a GOP advantage of 220-215 plus or minus 7.
That means the Democratic Party is three away from a projected win.

[Spectator]

Although the House still leans GOP, it is tightening:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/11/democrats-house-midterm-elections-00066436

and MSNBC is now predicting (projecting) a GOP advantage of 220-215 plus or minus 7.
That means the Democratic Party is three away from a projected win.

Based on the NYT tracker, I think Democrats have 213 seats at minimum, winning all the seats they’re leading in now, plus MD-06 and minus AZ-01. CA-13 is probably going to flip D, but I want to see if California as a whole is experiencing a red mirage first or a localized red wave before I count that. After that, AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-41, CA-03, CA-22, CA-45, CA-27 and OR-05 seem like the big battle grounds that are up in the air.

[Devils30]

Everyone is focused on McCarthy's right flank but will he even have the votes from his left? It's hard to see Fitzpatrick, Kean, Lawler and Molinaro going along with the freedom caucus on impeachment or anything too meaningful. This is going to be a very precarious majority if it is only 1-3 seats.

As for the debt ceiling, these reps and the LI reps all represent Wall Street heavy constituencies. Any threat the right makes will be easy for Dems to call their bluff. The threats will be completely empty and everyone knows it.

[Vosem]

Everyone is focused on McCarthy's right flank but will he even have the votes from his left? It's hard to see Fitzpatrick, Kean, Lawler and Molinaro going along with the freedom caucus on impeachment or anything too meaningful. This is going to be a very precarious majority if it is only 1-3 seats.

As for the debt ceiling, these reps and the LI reps all represent Wall Street heavy constituencies. Any threat the right makes will be easy for Dems to call their bluff. The threats will be completely empty and everyone knows it.

No, I doubt Biden gets impeached unless his approval drops a lot from where it is now.

OTOH, assuming McCarthy has the votes to actually assume the Speakership, he acquires the ability to set the congressional agenda. Biden's legislative agenda apart from nominations draws to a close; nothing else remotely like the IRA gets considered. All committees get Republican majorities, and there's no resistance even on the party's left flank to a House agenda that's just incessant investigations of the Biden Administration and Biden personally.

The debt ceiling stuff is a fascinating question; there may well be enough Republicans in Biden seats that the Democrats could negotiate with them on a basis separate from negotiations with the entire Republican Party, but my guess is that an "Eastern Moderates" caucus of Fitzpatrick/Kean/Lawler/D'Esposito would still want substantial concessions on things like tax policy. (It also -- and this goes back to a dispute from 2011 -- doesn't seem logical that people would necessarily blame Republicans for a failure to reach an agreement. That's never how anything has worked.)

[Devils30]

Everyone is focused on McCarthy's right flank but will he even have the votes from his left? It's hard to see Fitzpatrick, Kean, Lawler and Molinaro going along with the freedom caucus on impeachment or anything too meaningful. This is going to be a very precarious majority if it is only 1-3 seats.

As for the debt ceiling, these reps and the LI reps all represent Wall Street heavy constituencies. Any threat the right makes will be easy for Dems to call their bluff. The threats will be completely empty and everyone knows it.

No, I doubt Biden gets impeached unless his approval drops a lot from where it is now.

OTOH, assuming McCarthy has the votes to actually assume the Speakership, he acquires the ability to set the congressional agenda. Biden's legislative agenda apart from nominations draws to a close; nothing else remotely like the IRA gets considered. All committees get Republican majorities, and there's no resistance even on the party's left flank to a House agenda that's just incessant investigations of the Biden Administration and Biden personally.

The debt ceiling stuff is a fascinating question; there may well be enough Republicans in Biden seats that the Democrats could negotiate with them on a basis separate from negotiations with the entire Republican Party, but my guess is that an "Eastern Moderates" caucus of Fitzpatrick/Kean/Lawler/D'Esposito would still want substantial concessions on things like tax policy. (It also -- and this goes back to a dispute from 2011 -- doesn't seem logical that people would necessarily blame Republicans for a failure to reach an agreement. That's never how anything has worked.)

Biden wasn't going to pass anything more without a bigger Senate majority than 51-49 so a lot of this is not too big of a deal.

You wonder if Gottheimer, Sherrill and the Rs mentioned above will make a power play and use leverage to raise the SALT cap. Both parties in Long Island, Westchester, North and Central Jersey absolutely hate this being capped at 10K and it is the perfect time to make their move.

[Vosem]

Everyone is focused on McCarthy's right flank but will he even have the votes from his left? It's hard to see Fitzpatrick, Kean, Lawler and Molinaro going along with the freedom caucus on impeachment or anything too meaningful. This is going to be a very precarious majority if it is only 1-3 seats.

As for the debt ceiling, these reps and the LI reps all represent Wall Street heavy constituencies. Any threat the right makes will be easy for Dems to call their bluff. The threats will be completely empty and everyone knows it.

No, I doubt Biden gets impeached unless his approval drops a lot from where it is now.

OTOH, assuming McCarthy has the votes to actually assume the Speakership, he acquires the ability to set the congressional agenda. Biden's legislative agenda apart from nominations draws to a close; nothing else remotely like the IRA gets considered. All committees get Republican majorities, and there's no resistance even on the party's left flank to a House agenda that's just incessant investigations of the Biden Administration and Biden personally.

The debt ceiling stuff is a fascinating question; there may well be enough Republicans in Biden seats that the Democrats could negotiate with them on a basis separate from negotiations with the entire Republican Party, but my guess is that an "Eastern Moderates" caucus of Fitzpatrick/Kean/Lawler/D'Esposito would still want substantial concessions on things like tax policy. (It also -- and this goes back to a dispute from 2011 -- doesn't seem logical that people would necessarily blame Republicans for a failure to reach an agreement. That's never how anything has worked.)

Biden wasn't going to pass anything more without a bigger Senate majority than 51-49 so a lot of this is not too big of a deal.

You wonder if Gottheimer, Sherrill and the Rs mentioned above will make a power play and use leverage to raise the SALT cap. Both parties in Long Island, Westchester, North and Central Jersey absolutely hate this being capped at 10K and it is the perfect time to make their move.

I could definitely see that, yeah. It's also a part of the country where I think the "appeal to bipartisanship" is still much more alive than in other places.

[°Leprechaun]

NBC is predicting that Democrats will win about 212-220 seats.

I am certainly not going to predict a Democratic win at this point, but the House could be extremely close, with Democrats winning anywhere from 215-217 seats.

McCarthy is going forward as if they have already won, of course.

It will be interesting to watch what happens, but it could be a few weeks before the House is called, I believe.