Election models megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

MI-3 (Meijer, Biden +9): "Likely R", 90% chance of GOP hold
MI-10 (open, Trump +1): "Lean R", 73% chance of GOP hold

WI-GOV (Biden +<1): "Lean D", 64% chance of DEM hold
OR-GOV (Biden +16): "Lean D", 63% chance of DEM hold

Ok.

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running. OR is an open seat with a deeply unpopular governor (and the house majority leader is the dem nominee - at least somewhat tied to that governor), there is also an independent who has strong financial backing running named Betsy Johnson. She is a democrat turned independent who will take a lot of votes - though it's unclear from who. She is backed by Phil Knight (NIKE) and as I am visiting my family in Oregon since early June, Betsy Johnson has absolutely bombarded the airwaves with ads, with nothing from Tina Kotek or Drazan so far (I'm in Salem). So basically, it is very uncertain.

Evers is also a (somewhat) unpopular governor who only won by a point in a D+9 tidal wave. He's obviously more vulnerable than Kotek to anyone who doesn't worship fake "polls".

(Not like Kotek is safe or Evers is DOA)

Citation?  Evers has had net positive favorability in the last few polls that I recall seeing it in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The senate model is clearly underestimating Republicans due to reliance on polls, the GOP has outperformed what the polls said in the Senate 4 cycles in a row, 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020, in all 4 cycles the GOP won more senate seats than most projected, no reason to believe the polls have corrected for the bias.

I know that’s true for 3 of the elections, but are you sure about 2018? I thought the results matched the polls in the Senate then - it was only Democrat hopium that was defeated.

The finial 2018 FL Senate rcp average was was Nelson+2.4
The final rcp average for Indiana Senate 2018 was Donnelly +1.3, Braun won by 6

Now do the other races that year for comparison.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jhkersting/status/1542994391241052163


It makes sense to consolidate discussions of the various models in one place, so I'm going to make this a megathread for that purpose.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You also forget Republicans ran bad candidates in WV and OH (and completely gave up on the latter). With Jenkins in WV and a competent Republican campaign in OH, they could definitely have won both races.

Have Republicans ever lost with a good candidate? It seems like every time a Republican loses the loss is blamed on a crappy candidate instead of on crappy ideas.

Most people agree that James was a good candidate in MI in both runs, outrunning the baseline partisanship / national environment of the state in both cases and outrunning Trump by over a point in 2020.

But yes, in general this board loves to call any losing candidate a bad candidate in hindsight, even if nobody thought so beforehand. People like Katie McGinty, Bill Nelson, Martha McSally (in 2018), etc. we’re all thought of as decent to good candidates until they lost, at which point they became terrible unelectable losers who dragged down their respective national party with how big of a loser they are.

How about Jon Ossoff?  People said he was a terrible candidate after losing the GA-06 special to Handel, and then a brilliant one after beating Perdue for Senate.  (TBF, his second campaign was far better than his first one.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a possibility to ban Olowakandi at least from the Congressional & Governor Topics of Talk Elections until the 2022 Election is over!

I have not seen anything that violates the ToS.  If you find a user's signal-to-noise ratio too low, you can always Ignore him; the button is just up there on the right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a possibility to ban Olowakandi at least from the Congressional & Governor Topics of Talk Elections until the 2022 Election is over!

I have not seen anything that violates the ToS.  If you find a user's signal-to-noise ratio too low, you can always Ignore him; the button is just up there on the right.

Although you can still see an ignored persons posts if someone else quotes them as I found out with this post.   I make liberal use of the ignore feature, I would guess about a quarter of posts are from people I ignore. I don't mute people who I disagree with, I just mute people who who add nothing to the conversation.  FWIW I think my record is 10 posts in a row in I thread from people I have on ignore.

If you don't want to see their posts in quotes: go to your Profile, select "Atlas - Forum Options", check the boxes for "Hide posts by ignored users more thoroughly" and "Redact quoted posts by ignored users when possible", and then click Save at the bottom right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a possibility to ban Olowakandi at least from the Congressional & Governor Topics of Talk Elections until the 2022 Election is over!

I have not seen anything that violates the ToS.  If you find a user's signal-to-noise ratio too low, you can always Ignore him; the button is just up there on the right.

He is spamming every Thread here with his frivolous Predictions. In other Political Forums you do get banned even it's only temporary for SPAMMING! A 4-Month temporary ban for him until this Election is over would be so much better in General for the Forum & these Election Topics in Congressional & Governor.

If you would like to appeal to the modadmins, you can do so in the User Complaints megathread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=375046.0.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1549763196084310028

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1550511570358353922

[GeorgiaModerate]

D Senate chances up to 53% in the 538 Deluxe model and 65% in Classic, no doubt due to some additional GCB polls that were pretty good for them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's odd that they're acting as if Dobbs hasn't changed the landscape when it's very clear that it has, and it seems especially borne out in Senate polling, and the GCB. Republicans were up nearly 3% in the average before Dobbs, and now the Ds are nearly going to take over. The fact that they keep pushing house races to the R side is interesting, and seems to go against what's actually happening here.

The thing I don’t get is when I read these polls abortion still ranks fairly low on most voters minds of importance WAY behind the economy. Also I would imagine any single issue abortion voters would’ve already voted D, so what else could be behind a shift towards the democrats?

Not true - many polls have recently shown abortion to be a very salient issue. It was the top issue in the WA poll and the #2 issue in the IA Cygnal poll. Even todays Suffolk/USA Today had Economy at 20% and then Abortion at #2 at 16% as top issues.

Also, abortion doesn't have to be the most important issue to voters to have an effect, as long as it's at least somewhat important, which the Dobbs decision has made it.  A voter who cares about both the economy and abortion is going to be more likely to vote Democratic.  On the economy, there's not a lot to choose between the parties; they both claim there is, but let's be realistic -- there's not a lot that either party's policies will do in the face of global economic forces.  But for voters who view abortion as important, then unless they're in the minority who wants to completely ban abortion, there is now a strong motivation to vote D.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats now up to 57% chance of Senate control in 538's Deluxe model, 70% in Classic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Probability of R House control drops below 80% for the first time at 538; currently 79-21 in the Deluxe model (still 80-20 in Classic).

D Senate control is 59-41 in Deluxe, up to 72-28 (a new high) in Classic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats' Senate chances tick up again at 538, now 61% in Deluxe and 73% in Classic.  House is 79% for Republicans in both models.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

[GeorgiaModerate]

D chances of Senate control tick up again at 538, now 65% in the Deluxe model and 76% in Classic.  R's are still favored in the House with 78% in Deluxe and 77% in Classic.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats are now more than a 2:1 favorite for Senate control (67-33) in the 538 Deluxe model.  In the Classic model they're at 77-23, which equals R probability of House control in both models.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has released an interactive tool that lets you pick the outcome of individual Senate and House races and see the effect on the chances of overall control.  Have fun.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

[GeorgiaModerate]

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

I believe they use 70% as the dividing line between those two categories.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will the 538 Deluxe model reach a point that D Senate chances are higher than R House chances?  (This is already true in the Classic model.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has Dems now at a 70 in 100 chance to keep the senate. House is down 74 in 100 for the GOP.

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

I believe they use 70% as the dividing line between those two categories.

They're still saying "slightly favored" now, with 70-30. The GOP is still "favored" at 74-26. LOL.

Maybe they’re at 69.8%, and 70.0% is the cutoff?

This is almost certainly the explanation.  The same kind of scenario happened at one point in 2020, and one of the 538 folks explained it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist finally has their model online: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022.

Senate: 78% D

House: 74% R

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current comparison of the online models I know of; if you know of any others, please post a link. 

Senate D chances (most to least):

538 Lite 82%
538 Classic 79%
Economist 78%
538 Deluxe 70%
JHK 61.7%
DDHQ 58.8%

House R chances (most to least):

DDHQ 82.8%
JHK 77.8%
Economist, 538 Classic, 538 Deluxe 74%
538 Lite 61%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fixed the broken quote in a couple of the above posts which should make them more readable.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania?  Really?