Election models megathread

[ShamDam]

Can anyone explain why you can declare all Senate races and end up with a 1% chance of a different result?

Because it only allows you to toggle the competitive races. Technically the Safe R and Safe D races are not locked in, so there’s a non-zero chance that one party or another sweeps the states where they have <1% chance of winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's good to go by EDay models but seriously do we really supposed to explicitly go by then no we Don't that's why we make user prediction that's why I say users try to make exact maps and anything can happen

They say take everything with a grain of salt

D's got 59 seats in 2008 and no one expected that because just like in 22, models underpredicted, Liddy Dole, Ted Stevens, Chambliss, Chambliss was supposed to easily win and he ended up in a runoff, and so was Gordon Smith he was a McCain moderate, were all moderate enough to survive the wave and no one expected us to win 42 H seats in 2018 it's was projected 10/25 seats by Roll call and they said in fact Pelosi might have to wait till 2020 to become speaker D's overperformed

Any users trying to make an exact 303, map 1/3 chances they will be wrong on EDay because anything can happen that's why the user prediction doesn't block you on certain races

[Sir Mohamed]

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

I believe they use 70% as the dividing line between those two categories.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All I know we're gonna net PA SEN THAT GIVES US 50 WI, GA, NC, OH AND FL GETS US TO 55 ABD THEN IN, IA and LA gives us the rest but it's very possible NC gives us 52 seats after WI because we won 319 EC votes we didn't just win 306 because we won NC Gov that's why Beasley is so close and if the 3rd party spoils it for Beasley we go to OH and FL and IN and LA

I put it to you this way if you don't believe in wave insurance it's over(SEN)if D's win FL, NC or OH  Sen or IN or IA all on EST or CST it just won't be called until CA, WA, NV and AZ are in because those are WC times and we have HI 5 hrs apart

I KNOW NEWBIES ARE STUCK ON THIS 303 MAP BUT I HAVE BEEN DOING THIS SINCE 2004 Exact MAPS DONT WORK

ALSO EARLY VOTING IS STARTING IN OCT ONLY PROVISIONAL BALLOTS, Absentee AND RURAL VOTE, VOTES ON EDAY THE VOTING IS OVER FOR URBAN VOTE IN Oct 31 st Halloween they won't be tabulated until Nov EDay

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is likely a rounding error but lol.

[Xing]

This is likely a rounding error but lol.

There’s a 1% chance that Wisconsin will just give a participation award to both of them.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is likely a rounding error but lol.

There’s a 1% chance that Wisconsin will just give a participation award to both of them.

Technically doesn't every race have like a 0.00001% of exactly tying. We've had some very close calls before

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is likely a rounding error but lol.

There’s a 1% chance that Wisconsin will just give a participation award to both of them.

Technically doesn't every race have like a 0.00001% of exactly tying. We've had some very close calls before

Iowa also has probabilities of 98% Grassley,  3% Franken right now, but I'm guessing no one has noticed because why bother even checking that race.

[wbrocks67]

It's getting harder to square up 538's deluxe house forecast with the GCB.

GCB is now D+1.2 (44.7-43.5) and Democratic odds actually *dropped* back to down to 24% today.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's getting harder to square up 538's deluxe house forecast with the GCB.

GCB is now D+1.2 (44.7-43.5) and Democratic odds actually *dropped* back to down to 24% today.

If my memory serves me correctly 538's forecasts are each based on a model that runs like 10000 simulations, so when it says there's a 24% chance that means roughly 2400 simulations happened to come up with a Democratic win in the most recent run. My guess is that it went from something like 2460 Democratic wins in the previous run to 2440 in the current run, which is the kind of marginal shift that can be chalked up entirely to random number generation and not any real shift in polling. The longer-term shifts are far more meaningful than day-to-day shifts, particularly day-to-day shifts that occur with little to no new polling inputs.

Edit: Apparently it's 40,000 times per model run. Either way, likely a similar dynamic where we're seeing a rounding effect based on a marginal change due to the model's RNG.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will the 538 Deluxe model reach a point that D Senate chances are higher than R House chances?  (This is already true in the Classic model.)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will the 538 Deluxe model reach a point that D Senate chances are higher than R House chances?  (This is already true in the Classic model.)

The consistent trend towards Dems in the 538 model just comes from them holding their ballot lead as we get closer to the election, so it's quite possible.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will the 538 Deluxe model reach a point that D Senate chances are higher than R House chances?  (This is already true in the Classic model.)

The consistent trend towards Dems in the 538 model just comes from them holding their ballot lead as we get closer to the election, so it's quite possible.

538 model has been quite stubborn about moving the House model towards Ds much even as the Senate model zooms left. I think a lot of that has to be because Senate races get polling House races generally don't get. if Kelly really has a 76% chance of winning AZ, AZ-01 and AZ-06 are not likely almost solid R and idk why the model has such a hard time understanding that.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will the 538 Deluxe model reach a point that D Senate chances are higher than R House chances?  (This is already true in the Classic model.)

The consistent trend towards Dems in the 538 model just comes from them holding their ballot lead as we get closer to the election, so it's quite possible.

538 model has been quite stubborn about moving the House model towards Ds much even as the Senate model zooms left. I think a lot of that has to be because Senate races get polling House races generally don't get. if Kelly really has a 76% chance of winning AZ, AZ-01 and AZ-06 are not likely almost solid R and idk why the model has such a hard time understanding that.

I mean they have Peltola at like 15.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Will the 538 Deluxe model reach a point that D Senate chances are higher than R House chances?  (This is already true in the Classic model.)

The consistent trend towards Dems in the 538 model just comes from them holding their ballot lead as we get closer to the election, so it's quite possible.

538 model has been quite stubborn about moving the House model towards Ds much even as the Senate model zooms left. I think a lot of that has to be because Senate races get polling House races generally don't get. if Kelly really has a 76% chance of winning AZ, AZ-01 and AZ-06 are not likely almost solid R and idk why the model has such a hard time understanding that.

I mean they have Peltola at like 15.

I don't blame them there cause RCV is a lot harder to model.

[Sir Mohamed]

538 has Dems now at a 70 in 100 chance to keep the senate. House is down 74 in 100 for the GOP.

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

I believe they use 70% as the dividing line between those two categories.

They're still saying "slightly favored" now, with 70-30. The GOP is still "favored" at 74-26. LOL.

[Xing]

538 has Dems now at a 70 in 100 chance to keep the senate. House is down 74 in 100 for the GOP.

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

I believe they use 70% as the dividing line between those two categories.

They're still saying "slightly favored" now, with 70-30. The GOP is still "favored" at 74-26. LOL.

Maybe they’re at 69.8%, and 70.0% is the cutoff?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Democrats at 79 in Classic for the Senate, GOP at 74 for House, lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has Dems now at a 70 in 100 chance to keep the senate. House is down 74 in 100 for the GOP.

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

I believe they use 70% as the dividing line between those two categories.

They're still saying "slightly favored" now, with 70-30. The GOP is still "favored" at 74-26. LOL.

Maybe they’re at 69.8%, and 70.0% is the cutoff?

This is almost certainly the explanation.  The same kind of scenario happened at one point in 2020, and one of the 538 folks explained it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist finally has their model online: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022.

Senate: 78% D

House: 74% R

[wbrocks67]

The Economist finally has their model online: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022.

Senate: 78% D

House: 74% R

Interesting, it's a bit more bullish on Demings, Ryan, and Beasley than I would've expected. Only a bit bearish on Barnes, but that's to be expected.

[wbrocks67]

Their house prediction right now is 223-212 in GOP's favor. I could definitely buy that right now.

[Utah Neolib]

The Economist finally has their model online: https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-midterms-2022.

Senate: 78% D

House: 74% R

Interesting, it's a bit more bullish on Demings, Ryan, and Beasley than I would've expected. Only a bit bearish on Barnes, but that's to be expected.

Didn’t they have Missouri as Toss-up or Lean R when the model came out in 2020?

[Reactionary Libertarian]

LOL the Economist is a joke. They had gave Biden a 97% chance of winning the EC in 2020. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania were Safe Dem, Florida and North Carolina Likely. This Senate map gives Fetterman a better chance than Rubio and Vance. You can safely disregard anything they predict.

Here's their 2020 prediction: https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president