Election models megathread

[2016]

Is there a possibility to ban Olowakandi at least from the Congressional & Governor Topics of Talk Elections until the 2022 Election is over!

I have not seen anything that violates the ToS.  If you find a user's signal-to-noise ratio too low, you can always Ignore him; the button is just up there on the right.

He is spamming every Thread here with his frivolous Predictions. In other Political Forums you do get banned even it's only temporary for SPAMMING! A 4-Month temporary ban for him until this Election is over would be so much better in General for the Forum & these Election Topics in Congressional & Governor.

[2016]

Not sure if already been discussed but the FOX NEWS House Forecast is now up too...

[Politician]

Not sure if already been discussed but the FOX NEWS House Forecast is now up too...

That forecast is absolutely nuts. TX-32 as Likely D? It was Biden +33 lol

[2016]

Not sure if already been discussed but the FOX NEWS House Forecast is now up too...

That forecast is absolutely nuts. TX-32 as Likely D? It was Biden +33 lol

The Overall Forecast is in line with other Political Handicappers even if some Individual Districts look like a bit queary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a possibility to ban Olowakandi at least from the Congressional & Governor Topics of Talk Elections until the 2022 Election is over!

I have not seen anything that violates the ToS.  If you find a user's signal-to-noise ratio too low, you can always Ignore him; the button is just up there on the right.

He is spamming every Thread here with his frivolous Predictions. In other Political Forums you do get banned even it's only temporary for SPAMMING! A 4-Month temporary ban for him until this Election is over would be so much better in General for the Forum & these Election Topics in Congressional & Governor.

If you would like to appeal to the modadmins, you can do so in the User Complaints megathread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=375046.0.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can't wait til EDay when we get KY it's gonna be Paul plus 11 he's the clear Fav he's gonna win by 11 not 20 and we go to FL it's an R plus 3 state and NC R plus 1 and OH it's gonna be within 3 then we go to blue states we are gonna win the blue states definitely 🤩🤩🤩🤩

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1549763196084310028

[wbrocks67]

GOP with a 45-seat margin? Yeah I don't think so.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1549763196084310028

I can't fathom how they have Florida SEN as more competitive than Wisconsin SEC.  Ron Johnson has 96% probability of winning while Mark Kelly and CCM are solid favorites to hold their seats?  Seems pretty inconsistent.

[wbrocks67]

^^^i would assume just a consequence of the primary not being settled yet

[Politician]

They're overrating incumbents as usual. Malinowski has a 64.5% chance of winning but Republicans have a 60.1% chance to flip OR-4?

[Minnesota Mike]

The 538 Deluxe model is down to Republicans winning the Senate 51% of the time. Classic model (which I prefer) has Democrats winning the Senate 61% of the time. A lot of coin flip seats but at least in the Senate not nearly as bleak for Democrats as the doomsayers would have you believe.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1550511570358353922

[2016]

House Consensus Forecast from 270 TO WIN Website
https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-images/consensus-2022-house-forecast

The House is GONE for Democrats. They have Republicans at 217 already!

[Crumpets]

538 has Democrats favored (albeit very narrowly) to hold the Senate for the first time since the model went online.

[2016]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/23709/

10 more Races Shift, 9 in favour of Republicans.

Republicans lead Democrats 217-195 with 27 Toss Up Seats (although only 6 are Republicans).

No evidence SCOTUS Abortion Ruling changed the House Landscape.

[wbrocks67]

It's odd that they're acting as if Dobbs hasn't changed the landscape when it's very clear that it has, and it seems especially borne out in Senate polling, and the GCB. Republicans were up nearly 3% in the average before Dobbs, and now the Ds are nearly going to take over. The fact that they keep pushing house races to the R side is interesting, and seems to go against what's actually happening here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 puts up these H ratings because Rs are losing in the Senate the ratings said we were supposed to gain seats not lose seats, we lost seats on EDay last time, who cares about ratings, the maps are blank on EDay Rs are the underdogs in the S and D's are underdogs in the H we don't know what's gonna happen until we actually vote

It has changed the Landscape, the Rs we're favored to sweep Congress before Dobbs now they are the underdogs, Laxalt, Walker and Vance and Masters were on an even playing field now the D's are AHEAD

[Unelectable Bystander]

To summarize:

-They think the GCB will change after Labor Day due to polls shifting from registered voters to likely voters and undecideds breaking republican

-They still see an enthusiasm gap in some polls

-They think even a red ripple instead of a wave is plenty to flip the house

Individual races:

- CO-8 and NC-13 lean republican because they’re the type of seats that sway with the environment and they seem to think that Budd and O’Dea will win these seats and carry them across the finish line

- IN-1 tossup because R’s actually have some fundraising here, #candidate quality, and #trends

- GA-2 likely D because of no #candidate quality and also Warnock and Abrams may drag him across the finish line

-A bunch of other marginal R seats switching to likely by assuming the environment won’t be good enough for them to be competitive

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are thinking 52/48 and hold onto H they don't care about losing the H until the polls are open on EDay because they are the DOGS but anything can happen

[GeorgiaModerate]

D Senate chances up to 53% in the 538 Deluxe model and 65% in Classic, no doubt due to some additional GCB polls that were pretty good for them.

[wesmoorenerd]

The forecasters are mind-numbingly stupid and predictable. The last few months have represented an objective shift in the national environment in the Democrats' favor, but forecaster brain has one setting and it's "just move a couple of races toward the out-of-power party every few months." They're not the most creative bunch.

[Cyrusman]

To summarize:

-They think the GCB will change after Labor Day due to polls shifting from registered voters to likely voters and undecideds breaking republican

-They still see an enthusiasm gap in some polls

-They think even a red ripple instead of a wave is plenty to flip the house

Individual races:

- CO-8 and NC-13 lean republican because they’re the type of seats that sway with the environment and they seem to think that Budd and O’Dea will win these seats and carry them across the finish line

- IN-1 tossup because R’s actually have some fundraising here, #candidate quality, and #trends

- GA-2 likely D because of no #candidate quality and also Warnock and Abrams may drag him across the finish line

-A bunch of other marginal R seats switching to likely by assuming the environment won’t be good enough for them to be competitive

I guess I haven’t paid attention to this in previous years but is that normal where after Labor Day all polls go from RV to LV?

[Cyrusman]

It's odd that they're acting as if Dobbs hasn't changed the landscape when it's very clear that it has, and it seems especially borne out in Senate polling, and the GCB. Republicans were up nearly 3% in the average before Dobbs, and now the Ds are nearly going to take over. The fact that they keep pushing house races to the R side is interesting, and seems to go against what's actually happening here.

The thing I don’t get is when I read these polls abortion still ranks fairly low on most voters minds of importance WAY behind the economy. Also I would imagine any single issue abortion voters would’ve already voted D, so what else could be behind a shift towards the democrats?

[wbrocks67]

It's odd that they're acting as if Dobbs hasn't changed the landscape when it's very clear that it has, and it seems especially borne out in Senate polling, and the GCB. Republicans were up nearly 3% in the average before Dobbs, and now the Ds are nearly going to take over. The fact that they keep pushing house races to the R side is interesting, and seems to go against what's actually happening here.

The thing I don’t get is when I read these polls abortion still ranks fairly low on most voters minds of importance WAY behind the economy. Also I would imagine any single issue abortion voters would’ve already voted D, so what else could be behind a shift towards the democrats?

Not true - many polls have recently shown abortion to be a very salient issue. It was the top issue in the WA poll and the #2 issue in the IA Cygnal poll. Even todays Suffolk/USA Today had Economy at 20% and then Abortion at #2 at 16% as top issues.