Election models megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Twitter project 230RH and 52/48 D S with WI and PA and DeSANTIS losing in FL but they are cautious about projecting a D H because the Environment, D's goal is to win OH, NC and FL Senate seats and 218H seats Crist and Ryan are leading and Beasley, Demings and Kunce are down 5/6 points and last Change poll in April had Grassley only up 3, MOE and if  Crist wins in FL, Demings will win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're providing chances for majorties, right? What I expect:

- Chance for GOP majority in the House: 93%

- Chance for GOP majority in the Senate: 64%

No, have you seen the polls Barnes and Fetterman, CCM, Hassan, Warnock and Bennett are tied or leading and Kellyits a 40 percent chance of Rs winning S the Hits 60/40

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes is two pts ahead of Johnson, Rs haven't lead in a single AZ poll


Nate Silver follows the 303 blue wall that's why he gives this forcast and it's still July not Labor Day it's still 4 months away

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna have a 52/48 S since PA and WI and GA are gonna follow the Gov races but we are targeting OH, IA, NC, FL, LA and MO too and Ryan and Crist are leading, if Crist wins I find it hard to believe that Demings whom is only 5 down won't win


Be advised this a model and models can be wrong I expect D's to keep their majority, this model is solely going off of Biden low Approvals by Historical trends and it's Turnout that matters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're providing chances for majorties, right? What I expect:

- Chance for GOP majority in the House: 93%

- Chance for GOP majority in the Senate: 64%

No, have you seen the polls Barnes and Fetterman, CCM, Hassan, Warnock and Bennett are tied or leading and Kellyits a 40 percent chance of Rs winning S the Hits 60/40

Its 150 days to election, Rs can still win most tossup races due to fact Prez Biden is at 40s approvals.

They're losing in WI, PA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

EDay is after Labor Day it doesn't end on the 4th of July to my R friends

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OR is a D hold and NH Gov is not because Hassan is not gonna win by as much as Ron Wyden if Ron Wyden whom is gonna get 70 percent wasnt on the ballot Tina K would be in trouble but he is but never say never in NH in a big tsunami Sununu can lose it's NH and Scott and Sununu always start out  70/30 and it gets close at end

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a model not ratings and it's not even Labor Day yet it's only the 4th of July hold your horses

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Twitter models project a 230RH a 52/48 D S and 25/25 split in Govs , inverse of 2018 depending on KS and FL and GA and AZ GOVS but of course D's goal is 218 in the H and red Senate seats OH, NC, FL as wave insurance

That's a neutral cycle

But, 230 is 13 away from 217 and if needed we can win back the H in 2024 since we have a fav S map again

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In Act Blue I don't have the link Val Demings is it down only 46/48 so we can win red states, I just colored FL solid D just like the Gov race, but it should be on Twitter tracking soon since Crist is tied with DeSantis 🤩🤩🤩🤩

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a silly model, I don't look at these models why are users so concerned over models it's votes that matter ñot models they are like the Rs on this forum they are going off of Biden low Approvals

On Act blue Demings is down 46/48,  the vote is what matters not any silly models or ratings, that's why I make my own map not based on silly  ratinge


IPSOS just came our with Biden at 38 percent it was reported on MSNBC and 7 percent of Rs Approve of Biden

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

1st update and Republicans are up to a 55% chance to control the Senate. What's changed in the last 24 hours?

Dem internals came out showing them tenously leading in NV, which caused 538 to improve their % odds for Laxalt.

Seems like a big jump for one poll, especially one that had CCM up. They must be factoring in one hell of a house effect.

BTW just because I have to be that guy the Change Research polls are not internals, that would indicate they were paid for by the campaign or party, they were paid for by an outside Dem leaning group. Small but real difference.

They are going off Biden low Approvals IPSOS has Biden at 38 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook rankings having WI and PA, GA, NV, AZ as Tossups, Gonzalez hasFL, GA, KS as Tossup states so when these models predict an R S they are wrong because Cook has a blue wall map and Gonzales has FL Gov this isn't the end all be all

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These models don't take into account the minority vote which is key in OH, NC and FL and the problem with Grassley he has won every race by double digits and so has Greg Abbott and they only lead by 5 if you add the Minority votes a 300 K statewide Provisional ballots that can change a red state blue, because Beasley, Demings are only down 3 pts

The models don't also predict that there can be split voting Kemp is doing better than Walker Lake is obviously doing better than Masters against Kelly and Vance is doing worse than DEWINE, 2018 had split voting DeWine won and so did Sherrod Brown the same in AZ Ducey won and Sinema won, Lake was down 5 pts to Hobbs in the last GE poll but she will do alot better than Blake Masters whom is down 48/39 to Mark Kelly

Having said that it's a 303 map ANYWAYS, Biden will win 278 in 2024 VA, CO, NV, MI, WI, and PA and Gov Evers was up 47/43 on Kleefisch and Barnes was up 46/44 all the users say Johnson is a shoe in are flat wrong

A 303 map will give D's 25 Govs and 52)48 S and Rs aren't getting 245 seats it will be 217/230, D's aren't being shut out the H for a decade, I know why Rs are projecting 25o precisely so D's can't will the H back til 203o which will never happen

Mary Peltola is leading in Twitter in AK AL Sarah Palin and Palin is supposed to be a shoe on, and Golden has lead in 5 straight polls like Mills I posted them, 51)49 Those two seats tell you Rs aren't getting 250 SEATS

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users like to go by Biden low Approvals and so do Election models but D's are outpacing Biden low Approvals because Harris poll had Ds and Rs tied at 50% not 39% which is why Russian Bear and Big Serg aren't on here anymore maybe they realized 41% doesn't matter that's all Russian Bear talked about before he disappeared in the Ukraine war aftermath

Biden doesn't need over 303 he only needs 278  CO, VA,, NV and the rust belt with CA, IL and NYour Senate maps follow the Blue wall but as we know there is partisan gerrymandering in FL and TX and OH but it won't be 250 seats 180Ds that lock is out for the entire decade of the H, if lucky Rs will get 230 seats 12 seats is nothing to win back in 24

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just note whenever you see a Change poll or a PPP poll 9/10 they are accurate they were wrong in FL and NC last time but was right about AZ, they have all our D incumbents leading including Warnock and when they have IA Senate not Gov competetive with Franken and Grassley that's a warning to Rs that Grassley isn't assured the victory just like Impact has Ryan ahead but doesn't show anything on the Gov race that means Reynolds and DeWine are Favs


Nikki Fried and Crist and Beto has a good shot at winning Abbott and Grassley won by double digits and they lead only by 5 how the heck are they favs and MOE is 5/6 pts just like FL and NC Beasley and Demings are 3 pts behind


It's not a red wave yet in the H Mary Peltola is leading Palin and no one has posted the poll but the Mods delete my polls, so I don't post them, but it's only July not Labor Day so there is no red wave yet in the H is it's close in AK, most users have Golden losing in my previous posts Golden have lead in 5 straight polls like Mills 51/46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can't wait til EDay when we get KY it's gonna be Paul plus 11 he's the clear Fav he's gonna win by 11 not 20 and we go to FL it's an R plus 3 state and NC R plus 1 and OH it's gonna be within 3 then we go to blue states we are gonna win the blue states definitely 🤩🤩🤩🤩

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2016 puts up these H ratings because Rs are losing in the Senate the ratings said we were supposed to gain seats not lose seats, we lost seats on EDay last time, who cares about ratings, the maps are blank on EDay Rs are the underdogs in the S and D's are underdogs in the H we don't know what's gonna happen until we actually vote

It has changed the Landscape, the Rs we're favored to sweep Congress before Dobbs now they are the underdogs, Laxalt, Walker and Vance and Masters were on an even playing field now the D's are AHEAD

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are thinking 52/48 and hold onto H they don't care about losing the H until the polls are open on EDay because they are the DOGS but anything can happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

MTE lmao. Warnock has now led in even more polls now, with higher margins, than again the single Walker poll that had him up 2. Yet Walker *still* is at 51% chance in Deluxe. Their model for that state makes no sense.

Don't gaslight. You know summer polls overrate Democrats.

Trump netted seats at the same Approvals as Biden 42 percent and GCB has D's ahead  Democracy Corp 50/48, not every  poll is wrong

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/BitecoferStan/status/1541787347435634691?t=ntERJeRazfbce2uJ88eYdA&s=19

Here is a map we can get but AK, IA, OH Gov are Lean R and AK Sen so ratings and models don't matter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

Lol it's 3.6 unemployment

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We can have a goofy map  of Ryan, Fetterman and Beasley winning and Johnson or Walker winning, Rs are favs in the H yes but with Fetterman and GA Leans D a tied Senate is a D advantage due to Harris

Crist is tied in FL 51)49 leading if Crist wins Demings will too and Grassley won by 24 and only 8 pts and we have MO, and LA, it will go to a Dec Runoff if Kennedy gets under 50 which is still possible because in last poll he was polling not at 60 but 52 percent like Kemp

Rs 230/217 RH and 51/56 D Senate that's the range but is it gonna be an R Congress no, its gonna be Secular Trifecta or a Divided Congress

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Politician is like 20 yrs old when we are very young we don't need Medicare and SSA and unemployment as you get into my our 30s and 40s and need Dental benefits you see how expensive medicine cost, we were all 20 but the truth of the matter you are gonna spend most of your adult life 50 to 80 as a senior citizens and 50 you can get AARP life insurance

I don't know if it's accurate but it says Progressive Moderate whom has an R nut map, Xing, Politician and Snowlabador are all like 20 yrs old, and most of them believe it's an R wave it's a neutral Environment a 303 map, when I was 20 I was against Medicare for all and then I saw how expensive Dentist us, when you age you get gentivitas and that surgery cost 5K and sometimes you lose molars that you don't need

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see what happens in FL 13