Election models megathread

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These numbers all seem reasonable to me? Going off polls alone, Democrats DO appear to be favored to retain the Senate but lose the House.

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The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

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Pennsylvania?  Really?

RealObtusePolitics

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I really wish 538’s models had options for “only include Trafalgar polls” and “exclude all Trafalgar polls”.

The former is just RCP.

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-flip-senate-house/

I haven't been feeling great about the direction the polls and models have been going recently, but with Walker's continued scandals, I wanted to see what at least 538's model would output if you called the race for Warnock in Georgia. A Warnock victory jumps Democratic chances in the Senate from 54% all the way up to 80%. Even if you lock in the "Solid R" seats of Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, and Missouri, Democratic chances remain at 75%. Still distressing that the modern Republican party would still have a 3-1 chance at taking the House, but much better than a coin flip for Senate control.

On the other end, should Walker pull it out and end up winning, Democrats fall to only a 29% chance to hold the Senate and single digits for the House. So there's that.

This model's fun to play around with (and God knows I've done it myself a few times this cycle), but it assumes a much more connected national picture than it probably should. Walker losing because he's a seriously flawed candidate doesn't necessarily imply CCM or Fetterman winning in the way the model thinks.

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538 was 51-49 Republican senate a minute ago but is now back to 50-50 again.

We'll be doing this dance for the next couple of days, I expect. Best not to pay it too much attention.