Election models megathread

[2016]

The 538 House Model if you take Likely & Leaners into Account

Republicans 226
Democrats 195
Toss Up 16

The Model is rougly in line with with Cook Political Report who are projecting Republicans to gain 25-35 House Seats.

[2016]

IDK about the first set, but the second set isn't a good comparison. WI has a dem incumbent running.

-snip-

This isn't the Issue. Polls for example particularly this year are still severly underestimating that Indies will go for the Challenger in the end.
Yes 538 has always put too much weight on incumbency, but sometimes it makes them better than the other models, for example they had a better chance than most of Susan Collins winning in Maine in 2020

[2016]

Is there a possibility to ban Olowakandi at least from the Congressional & Governor Topics of Talk Elections until the 2022 Election is over!

[2016]

Is there a possibility to ban Olowakandi at least from the Congressional & Governor Topics of Talk Elections until the 2022 Election is over!

I have not seen anything that violates the ToS.  If you find a user's signal-to-noise ratio too low, you can always Ignore him; the button is just up there on the right.

He is spamming every Thread here with his frivolous Predictions. In other Political Forums you do get banned even it's only temporary for SPAMMING! A 4-Month temporary ban for him until this Election is over would be so much better in General for the Forum & these Election Topics in Congressional & Governor.

[2016]

Not sure if already been discussed but the FOX NEWS House Forecast is now up too...

[2016]

Not sure if already been discussed but the FOX NEWS House Forecast is now up too...

That forecast is absolutely nuts. TX-32 as Likely D? It was Biden +33 lol

The Overall Forecast is in line with other Political Handicappers even if some Individual Districts look like a bit queary.

[2016]

House Consensus Forecast from 270 TO WIN Website
https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-images/consensus-2022-house-forecast

The House is GONE for Democrats. They have Republicans at 217 already!

[2016]

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/23709/

10 more Races Shift, 9 in favour of Republicans.

Republicans lead Democrats 217-195 with 27 Toss Up Seats (although only 6 are Republicans).

No evidence SCOTUS Abortion Ruling changed the House Landscape.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1556750556668067841

This ought to be shocking for Democrats. Democrats running in the Rio Grande Valley, Miami, even Arizona and Nevada...YOU ARE ON NOTICE for November.

[2016]

The Map isn't there for Democrats to retain the House.

I will be watching the Virginia 2nd Congressional Race on Election Night between Rep. Elaine Luria and her Republican Opponent Jen Kiggans. This District is a total Swing District similar to NY-19. If Kiggans wins Republicans Chances of retaking the House jumps to 95 %.

[2016]

The Map isn't there for Democrats to retain the House.

I will be watching the Virginia 2nd Congressional Race on Election Night between Rep. Elaine Luria and her Republican Opponent Jen Kiggans. This District is a total Swing District similar to NY-19. If Kiggans wins Republicans Chances of retaking the House jumps to 95 %.

VA-02 was the median House seat on 2020 Pres numbers so yeah def a very important one for both sides (since it seems unlikely Kiggans or Luria would significantly defy traditionally partisanhip and run away with it). It seems like most paths of least resistance to a Dem majority will require them to win a few Trump districts such as IA-03, MI-07, PA-08, or MI-10 since Rs have seats like PA-01, CA-40, NE-02, and maybe NJ-07 pretty locked down (at least enough to be to the right of the tipping point)

For reference, he's a list of seats ranked by 2020 Pres results:

205 - WA08 - B + 6.67
206 - NV03 - B + 6.64
207 - NE02 - B + 6.32
208 - CA45 - B + 6.18
209 - NH01 - B + 5.93
210 - NM02 - B + 5.88
211 - PA17 - B + 5.83
212 - PA01 - B + 4.64
213 - NY19 - B + 4.62
214 - CO08 - B + 4.55
215 - KS03 - B + 4.45
216 - NJ07 - B + 3.66
217 - OH13 - B + 2.82
218 - VA02 - B + 2.05
219 - MI08 - B + 2.03
220 - CA40 - B + 1.87
221 - NC13 - B + 1.69
222 - AZ01 - B + 1.48
223 - MI07 - B + 0.95
224 - PA07 - B + 0.62
225 - NY01 - B + 0.21
226 - AZ06 - B + 0.07
227 - FL27 - T + 0.32
228 - IA03 - T + 0.34
229 - MI10 - T + 0.98
230 - CA41 - T + 1.09

One thing that's interesting is that seat 211 (PA-17) is nearly Biden + 6 which is pretty blue and to the left of the nation but after that the seats drop off for Dems very quickly and by seat 218 you're at Biden + 2. However, after that the list slows down again and you have quite a lot of seats that were extremely close in the 2020 pres race.

We could also have a systematic Polling Error. In 2016, 2018 and 2020 every single time Pollsters undercounted the Shy Trump Vote.

As far as the Senate goes yes Models are showing Democrats with a good lead BUT when you look at WI, GA, NV there are all within the MOE. They can easily go the other way.
If you look at 2014 for example Races in IA, CO, NC started to swing in the Final 2 Weeks of the Campaign.

[2016]

RealClearPolitics Projection

[2016]

Pennsylvania?  Really?

The thing is: Republicans don't need Pennsylvania. If they lose PA but win GA, NV and hold everything else they have the Senate. Both NV & PA looking better recently for Democrats.

[2016]

Morris is an absolute <slur deleted by moderator>.
This by Wasserman seems a lot more realistic and it's what I have been saying all along that Democrats would need close to 80 % of the Toss Up Seats and Wasserman explains it:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1572573036771147777

[2016]

538 has removed the Center Street PAC Polls from their Model!

Pay no attention what Bonier says.

[2016]

Democrats struggling in Oregon-6 and Rhode Island-2 doesn't bode very well for them keeping the House to be quite frank.

If Republicans win either of those Seats the House is gone for the D's.

[2016]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

[2016]

R+2 on the Generic Ballot (47/45)

Looks to me a lot more believeable than FOX.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-lead-house-control-opinion-poll-2022-10-16/

Something fascinating about this poll-set is the in-depth questioning about voters' economic concerns:

Economy is getting...
Better 15%
Worse 65%
Staying the same 20%

What has caused higher prices?
Supply & manufacturing issues:  63%
Global factors: 58%
Democratic policies: 47%

Democratic policies have:
Harmed economy: 48%
Helped economy: 29%
No difference/not sure: 23%

Inflation: Biden administration
Could be doing more: 63%
Is doing all it can: 32%

Biden responsible for the economy?
A lot: 45%
Some: 26%
A little: 20%
Not at all: 8%

These are terrible Numbers for the D's and Biden when it comes to the Economy. And I think the Economy will eventually decide the House Vote. It will not be an R-Wave BUT it will sure be heck enough to flip the House over.

[2016]

Noticing a Trend in the Biden JA in Battleground Senate Races

NC - 38 %
OH - 39 %

Terrible!!!

[2016]

LOL, GeorgiaModerate is dying by these Models.

It's VOTES that count, not MODELS!

[2016]

LOL, GeorgiaModerate is dying by these Models.

It's VOTES that count, not MODELS!

I don't live or die by them.  I just report them because I like numbers.

I like numbers too

That being said I do consider most of these Forecaster uber partisan hacks and they have lost a lot of credibility with me over the last 3 Election Cycles

I used to spent a lot of time on 538 in 2008 & 2012 and they were really good back then.

Unfortunately Nate "Plastic" Silver has become a complete partisan hack.

[2016]

This Thread is worth a read by Elliott G. Morris about the "Center Street Pac" Polls
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1583122747492028416

What do you think?

P. S. Leave a Comment below if you have a thought!

[2016]

Somebody did an interview with Wasserman and he said the following:

-Democrats are facing a category 2 or 3 hurricane in the house

-The 80/20 rule still stands for how many tossup wins are needed for control, but also saying that there are a ton of lean D seats (including Maloney and Porter) and there will probably be more of those that fall compared to lean R seats

-The senate is close to 50/50

-He thinks 43% is where Franken could end up

-He trashed Cahaly for not disclosing his sampling methods lol

This is unrelated to the interview, but a republican operative in Wasserman’s timeline thinks Nevada is a done deal. No idea where he got this from but interesting.

Wasserman should know that Nevada is "Fools Gold" for Republicans. They will never win a Statewide Race for either Governor, Senator or President for the next 50 years which is why I think the Senate will be 51-49 D.

[2016]

CBS Poll this Morning showed a close Race for the House with R's leading D's 47-45.

However Republicans have a WHOPPING 16-PERCENTAGE POINT LEAD among Independent Voters. How are the Democrats going to offset that? It's virtually impossible.

BTW TS Clown Tom Bonior still thinks Democrats will hold the House 218-217 based on his Trash Model, LOL

[2016]

CBS Poll this Morning showed a close Race for the House with R's leading D's 47-45.

However Republicans have a WHOPPING 16-PERCENTAGE POINT LEAD among Independent Voters. How are the Democrats going to offset that? It's virtually impossible.

BTW TS Clown Tom Bonior still thinks Democrats will hold the House 218-217 based on his Trash Model, LOL

"I believe the crosstabs but not the topline" is an... interesting choice, to say the least.

If the DCCC is pumping money to save their Chair in New York Sean Patrick Maloney they are not winning the House. NADA. 0,0 % Chance.