Election models megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's odd that they're acting as if Dobbs hasn't changed the landscape when it's very clear that it has, and it seems especially borne out in Senate polling, and the GCB. Republicans were up nearly 3% in the average before Dobbs, and now the Ds are nearly going to take over. The fact that they keep pushing house races to the R side is interesting, and seems to go against what's actually happening here.

The thing I don’t get is when I read these polls abortion still ranks fairly low on most voters minds of importance WAY behind the economy. Also I would imagine any single issue abortion voters would’ve already voted D, so what else could be behind a shift towards the democrats?

Not true - many polls have recently shown abortion to be a very salient issue. It was the top issue in the WA poll and the #2 issue in the IA Cygnal poll. Even todays Suffolk/USA Today had Economy at 20% and then Abortion at #2 at 16% as top issues.

Also, abortion doesn't have to be the most important issue to voters to have an effect, as long as it's at least somewhat important, which the Dobbs decision has made it.  A voter who cares about both the economy and abortion is going to be more likely to vote Democratic.  On the economy, there's not a lot to choose between the parties; they both claim there is, but let's be realistic -- there's not a lot that either party's policies will do in the face of global economic forces.  But for voters who view abortion as important, then unless they're in the minority who wants to completely ban abortion, there is now a strong motivation to vote D.

[Politician]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

[Brittain33]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

Did it occur to you that the Republican Party having solid control of the Supreme Court and handing down unpopular laws may have scrambled the calculus on who “the party in power is” just a bit vs. past elections?

[wbrocks67]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

Other than it being a midterm in a Democratic presidency, what exact fundamentals point to a red wave?

Because all the actual tangibles (fundraising, polling, etc.) do not point to that. Not to mention, SC ripping away rights from an incredibly popular precedence is not a fundamental that points that way.

Also the "recession" situation is a lot more complicated, than say, 2008's situation, so it's not some blanket albatross around Dems neck.

Use some critical thinking skills next time.

[here2view]

538 now has PA Senate as Lean D

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why is it that switching from the Deluxe to Classic model on 538 dramatically improves Dem’s chances of holding the Senate, but has absolutely no effect on their chances of holding the House?

[Brittain33]

Why is it that switching from the Deluxe to Classic model on 538 dramatically improves Dem’s chances of holding the Senate, but has absolutely no effect on their chances of holding the House?

Different polling results.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why is it that switching from the Deluxe to Classic model on 538 dramatically improves Dem’s chances of holding the Senate, but has absolutely no effect on their chances of holding the House?

Different polling results.

But the polls included in both versions of the model are the same, right?

[wbrocks67]

Why is it that switching from the Deluxe to Classic model on 538 dramatically improves Dem’s chances of holding the Senate, but has absolutely no effect on their chances of holding the House?

Different polling results.

But the polls included in both versions of the model are the same, right?

Senate version is based on all separate senate results (i guess with maybe a tiny % of GCB results), but the House version is primarily based on the GCB i believe (and of course any random house polls they may get)

[soundchaser]

The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

[wbrocks67]

The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

MTE lmao. Warnock has now led in even more polls now, with higher margins, than again the single Walker poll that had him up 2. Yet Walker *still* is at 51% chance in Deluxe. Their model for that state makes no sense.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

MTE lmao. Warnock has now led in even more polls now, with higher margins, than again the single Walker poll that had him up 2. Yet Walker *still* is at 51% chance in Deluxe. Their model for that state makes no sense.

Well Dave Wasserman has more say in that one than statistics. Besides, 538 has presumably had time to tune their model since 2020.

[Politician]

The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

MTE lmao. Warnock has now led in even more polls now, with higher margins, than again the single Walker poll that had him up 2. Yet Walker *still* is at 51% chance in Deluxe. Their model for that state makes no sense.

Don't gaslight. You know summer polls overrate Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The slew of good polls for Warnock over the last few days have...improved Walker's chances in the Deluxe model? Classic remains the way to go.

MTE lmao. Warnock has now led in even more polls now, with higher margins, than again the single Walker poll that had him up 2. Yet Walker *still* is at 51% chance in Deluxe. Their model for that state makes no sense.

Don't gaslight. You know summer polls overrate Democrats.

Trump netted seats at the same Approvals as Biden 42 percent and GCB has D's ahead  Democracy Corp 50/48, not every  poll is wrong

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats now up to 57% chance of Senate control in 538's Deluxe model, 70% in Classic.

[Nyvin]

538 is now at 58% chance of Dem Senate majority, which seems kinda reasonable given the polling we have available.   

I don't agree that there's a 12% chance of Dems having 54+ seats though, that seems optimistic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/BitecoferStan/status/1541787347435634691?t=ntERJeRazfbce2uJ88eYdA&s=19

Here is a map we can get but AK, IA, OH Gov are Lean R and AK Sen so ratings and models don't matter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

Lol it's 3.6 unemployment

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing this 538 Deluxe model seems to be good at dealing with is polls that just go very against fundamentals. For instance, in PA-Sen, the 4 most recent polls are Fetterman + 11, 14, 9, and 11. I don't think anyone in the election community expects him to win by that much, but these types of polls haven't pulled the model to declare the race like 95% Fetterman. We see a similar theme in OH where all these polls of Ryan leading haven't made OH-Sen race even a tossup and gives Vance a 3/4 shot.

One thing I don't understand is how the model has reached the conclusion that MI-Gov is Safe D despite basically no high-quality polls. That seems very overconfident, though I agree that fundementals prolly heavily favor Ds.

The other thing is that there seems to be a disconnect between the House forecast and the Senate/Governors forecast. The House Forecast expects an R + 4.5 margin nationally which isn't unreasonable, however, that doesn't align with Dems being favored in all these Senate and Governors races in narrow Biden states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We can have a goofy map  of Ryan, Fetterman and Beasley winning and Johnson or Walker winning, Rs are favs in the H yes but with Fetterman and GA Leans D a tied Senate is a D advantage due to Harris

Crist is tied in FL 51)49 leading if Crist wins Demings will too and Grassley won by 24 and only 8 pts and we have MO, and LA, it will go to a Dec Runoff if Kennedy gets under 50 which is still possible because in last poll he was polling not at 60 but 52 percent like Kemp

Rs 230/217 RH and 51/56 D Senate that's the range but is it gonna be an R Congress no, its gonna be Secular Trifecta or a Divided Congress

[Arizona Iced Tea]

538 now gives Mark Kelly the same odds as Johnson and Budd at winning. (68-32)

[ProgressiveModerate]

538 now gives Mark Kelly the same odds as Johnson and Budd at winning. (68-32)

As someone on the ground in AZ, does this seem about right to you or is it bullish on Kelly?

[Torie]

One thing this 538 Deluxe model seems to be good at dealing with is polls that just go very against fundamentals. For instance, in PA-Sen, the 4 most recent polls are Fetterman + 11, 14, 9, and 11. I don't think anyone in the election community expects him to win by that much, but these types of polls haven't pulled the model to declare the race like 95% Fetterman. We see a similar theme in OH where all these polls of Ryan leading haven't made OH-Sen race even a tossup and gives Vance a 3/4 shot.

One thing I don't understand is how the model has reached the conclusion that MI-Gov is Safe D despite basically no high-quality polls. That seems very overconfident, though I agree that fundementals prolly heavily favor Ds.

The other thing is that there seems to be a disconnect between the House forecast and the Senate/Governors forecast. The House Forecast expects an R + 4.5 margin nationally which isn't unreasonable, however, that doesn't align with Dems being favored in all these Senate and Governors races in narrow Biden states.

Candidate quality matters more in Governor and Senate races, and the Pubs nominated some real clunkers.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

We're literally about to enter a recession, all fundamentals point to a red wave and all these Demohacks can come up with is "muh Dobbs" and "muh summer polls". Gets old.

LOL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Politician is like 20 yrs old when we are very young we don't need Medicare and SSA and unemployment as you get into my our 30s and 40s and need Dental benefits you see how expensive medicine cost, we were all 20 but the truth of the matter you are gonna spend most of your adult life 50 to 80 as a senior citizens and 50 you can get AARP life insurance

I don't know if it's accurate but it says Progressive Moderate whom has an R nut map, Xing, Politician and Snowlabador are all like 20 yrs old, and most of them believe it's an R wave it's a neutral Environment a 303 map, when I was 20 I was against Medicare for all and then I saw how expensive Dentist us, when you age you get gentivitas and that surgery cost 5K and sometimes you lose molars that you don't need