Election models megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Probability of R House control drops below 80% for the first time at 538; currently 79-21 in the Deluxe model (still 80-20 in Classic).

D Senate control is 59-41 in Deluxe, up to 72-28 (a new high) in Classic.

[wesmoorenerd]

Probability of R House control drops below 80% for the first time at 538; currently 79-21 in the Deluxe model (still 80-20 in Classic).

D Senate control is 59-41 in Deluxe, up to 72-28 (a new high) in Classic.

Wonder if and when R House control becomes less likely than D Senate control in Classic. Would say quite a bit.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see what happens in FL 13

[2016]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1556750556668067841

This ought to be shocking for Democrats. Democrats running in the Rio Grande Valley, Miami, even Arizona and Nevada...YOU ARE ON NOTICE for November.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1556750556668067841
This ought to be shocking for Democrats. Democrats running in the Rio Grande Valley, Miami, even Arizona and Nevada...YOU ARE ON NOTICE for November.

-Still under 40% is somehow DEMOCRATS GOING TO LOSE EVERYTHING LOL

[Unelectable Bystander]

There’s a politico article out there about how the GOP internals look fantastic in a few Biden-friendly districts in CO, OR, and Harder’s old Central Valley district. The most shocking was the new Oregon 6, which they had at R+7. These are internals so always take with a grain of salt, but it was conducted by Cygnal who is generally pretty decent and not hackish, and even the D internal has the race tied.

The point is that these are probably the polls that Wasserman had access to when he made some of those ratings shifts. Posters on here seem to imply that handicappers just randomly assign a status to races based on vibes and feels. They’re certainly wrong sometimes, but there is still a data element to it

[Utah Neolib]

Something random I noticed - since 2016, the fourth most likely outcome in the Classic model was the outcome that ultimately occurred. (In the senate)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof?t=zA9E9nvBCfaR6vn_GJbluQ&s=09

Here is the Senate fircast of holding onto our Seats AZ is a 71% favored chance

C(O D+10 90
NH D +5 76
AZ D+4 71
Pa /D +3 67
NV D+1 57

50 seats

GA D 0.6 50
NC D-3 35
WI D-3 32
OH D-3 24
FL D-10 9
AK D-30 5

NO R NUT NAPS

[Minnesota Mike]

The problem with models. I don't expect Democrats to win MN-01 or NE-01 but c'mon.

538 Deluxe

MN-01: Finstad 98%, projected pop vote 57.1 - 39.1.

NE-01: Flood 98%, projected pop vote 58.9 - 41.1.

[wbrocks67]

The problem with models. I don't expect Democrats to win MN-01 or NE-01 but c'mon.

538 Deluxe

MN-01: Finstad 98%, projected pop vote 57.1 - 39.1.

NE-01: Flood 98%, projected pop vote 58.9 - 41.1.

Yikes, the House model definitely has some quirks about it but those are some of the more worse examples I've seen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not worrying about the H until EDay if we win a Senate majority we will win the H good news Kelly isn't losing

[Ferguson97]

Something random I noticed - since 2016, the fourth most likely outcome in the Classic model was the outcome that ultimately occurred.

If this happened again, Republicans would have either 240/238/223 House seats (3-way tie for 2.2%) and the Senate would remain 50/50.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs aren't winning 50 Senate if Warnock wins it will be 50/50 we net PA that's 51 and WI 52

Nate Silver has PA as the 50th seat not GA because it's a Runoff but Warnock is hitting 50 in every poll it will be at least 51/49

The range is from 230 RH/217 Rs and 51/55 Senate seats, 50 percent chance for Divided Congress, 40 chance of Secular Trifecta abd 10 percent chance of R Congress

Rs aren't getting close to 240 the range is 225/230

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats' Senate chances tick up again at 538, now 61% in Deluxe and 73% in Classic.  House is 79% for Republicans in both models.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

I'm very confused about how the House model can think the GCB is slightly over 2020t R + 4 (about a 9 point swing from 2020) yet the Senate model can in good faith rate PA-Sen and AZ-Sen as Lean D. Sure, Oz and Masters have their issues but are they significant to matter that much?

And the Governors forecast almost seems to indicate a D wave, with MI-Gov being safe D, MN, WI, and PA being likely D, and KS being tossup.

Even just look at a state by state level in the House. AZ-Sen is lean D yet AZ-01 and AZ-06 are safe R, districts that Kelly will prolly have to win or at least come close in to win statewide.

I have a feeling that in reality their 3 models are not very well correlated at all.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

I'm very confused about how the House model can think the GCB is slightly over 2020t R + 4 (about a 9 point swing from 2020) yet the Senate model can in good faith rate PA-Sen and AZ-Sen as Lean D. Sure, Oz and Masters have their issues but are they significant to matter that much.

And the Governors forecast almost seems to indicate a D wave, with MI-Gov being safe D, MN, WI, and PA being likely D, and KS being tossup.

Even just look at a state by state level in the House. AZ-Sen is lean D yet AZ-01 and AZ-06 are safe R, districts that Kelly will prolly have to win or at least come close in to win statewide.

I have a feeling that in reality their 3 models are not very well correlated at all.

Do you realize D's outnumber Rs and female vote 55/45 and when Ds lost it wasn't a deficit it was only tied there are 100 M minorities in this country 85% vote D and 150 M females and 55/45 vote D and white men 60% vote R and 150M

This is taught in Psychology 101 in college that females and Minorities vote D be ause we are Labor and White men are Evangelical Enterprenaurs and Corporate, but females are Human Resource Managers the Hiring managers, I had females as hiring managers but CEOs are white men the owners, inheritance wealth like Trump

I think you haven't looked at EDay Results every Election Ds outnumber Rs 65/60M we lost red states in 2014, not blue states nd 2010 we had 10% unemployment and polls in OH, NC and FL contradictory your R nut map that have D's AHEAD

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

I'm very confused about how the House model can think the GCB is slightly over 2020t R + 4 (about a 9 point swing from 2020) yet the Senate model can in good faith rate PA-Sen and AZ-Sen as Lean D. Sure, Oz and Masters have their issues but are they significant to matter that much?

And the Governors forecast almost seems to indicate a D wave, with MI-Gov being safe D, MN, WI, and PA being likely D, and KS being tossup.

Even just look at a state by state level in the House. AZ-Sen is lean D yet AZ-01 and AZ-06 are safe R, districts that Kelly will prolly have to win or at least come close in to win statewide.

I have a feeling that in reality their 3 models are not very well correlated at all.

I do think the 538 model tends to overvalue incumbency across the board, which somewhat explains AZ.  Like I definitely don’t think Dems are more likely to win NC than WI. 

But candidate quality can easily create a >5 point swing in individual race; we see this in multiple races in every cycle.  Just in Pennsylvania alone, Bob Casey would have won in a R+4 environment in both 2012 and 2018 if you apply a uniform swing from the House PV.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

I'm very confused about how the House model can think the GCB is slightly over 2020t R + 4 (about a 9 point swing from 2020) yet the Senate model can in good faith rate PA-Sen and AZ-Sen as Lean D. Sure, Oz and Masters have their issues but are they significant to matter that much?

And the Governors forecast almost seems to indicate a D wave, with MI-Gov being safe D, MN, WI, and PA being likely D, and KS being tossup.

Even just look at a state by state level in the House. AZ-Sen is lean D yet AZ-01 and AZ-06 are safe R, districts that Kelly will prolly have to win or at least come close in to win statewide.

I have a feeling that in reality their 3 models are not very well correlated at all.

I do think the 538 model tends to overvalue incumbency across the board, which somewhat explains AZ.  Like I definitely don’t think Dems are more likely to win NC than WI. 

But candidate quality can easily create a >5 point swing in individual race; we see this in multiple races in every cycle.  Just in Pennsylvania alone, Bob Casey would have won in a R+4 environment in both 2012 and 2018 if you apply a uniform swing from the House PV.

To their credit, they had Maine Senate as a tossup basically through all of 2020 while many had written it off by ED.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Something really seem to shoot up Dems chances today at 538.

[Brittain33]

Something really seem to shoot up Dems chances today at 538.

Barnes +7?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollingBad2022/status/1560417917786722304?t=dbjXjdr3N736UgkB50pRgw&s=19

Election model moves WI, PA to Lean R and UT, OH, NC as Tossup no FL yet

52/45 Senate right now is 👍

[wbrocks67]

IDK, the DDHQ election model seems kind of sloppy. They seem to be missing quite a bit of polling in different races.

[ProgressiveModerate]

IDK, the DDHQ election model seems kind of sloppy. They seem to be missing quite a bit of polling in different races.

At least they fixed the MN-05 and FL-24 problems. Overall it doesn't seem too bad and seems like what you'd expect if 2022 ends up being a pretty solid R wave. My only gripe is that they weight incumbency a bit too mcuh in such a polarized era.

[wbrocks67]

IDK, the DDHQ election model seems kind of sloppy. They seem to be missing quite a bit of polling in different races.

At least they fixed the MN-05 and FL-24 problems. Overall it doesn't seem too bad and seems like what you'd expect if 2022 ends up being a pretty solid R wave. My only gripe is that they weight incumbency a bit too mcuh in such a polarized era.

Yeah, they have the House at 234-201 right now..... 538's 230-205 seems a bit more realistic.