Election models megathread

[SCNCmod]

I'm really interested to see if there will be an under-inclusion in polling of registered voters who have not voted in recent elections (sort of similar to silent trump voters of 2016).

... as i'm typing this- i just heard a pundit ask the same thing (expect the question was aimed specifically at a potential Latina silent abortion voter for dems).

BTW- does anyone know how much final polls were off - in 2016 competitive senate races that had a large silent trump vote that pollsters missed in turnout models?

[SCNCmod]

I know Kansas abortion referendum vote is likely not very predictive of today's elections for various reasons... But what was the difference in polling vs results?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I know Kansas abortion referendum vote is likely not very predictive of today's elections for various reasons... But what was the difference in polling vs results?

There were only a few polls and they greatly underestimated "No", which ended up winning.

[SCNCmod]

I know Kansas abortion referendum vote is likely not very predictive of today's elections for various reasons... But what was the difference in polling vs results?

There were only a few polls and they greatly underestimated "No", which ended up winning.

I found an article on the subject- seems like polls showed around 47-43. Actual result was around 60-40.

Granted- polls for today would be nowhere near that off... But even if there is a 3-5% undersampling of infrequent voters who rank abortion as most important issue- it would have a big impact today.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So much for models of R big night in H

[GeorgiaModerate]

Take a look at this model from a week before Election Day!  I just ran across it.  Start here: https://twitter.com/tafjos20/status/1587482352678162433.  In particular, from the thread:

https://twitter.com/tafjos20/status/1587482377084755968

[Figueira]

I just noticed that while Fivethirtyeight has Republicans winning an average of 230 seats, if you go by the individual seat count, it actually has Republicans winning 223 seats, which is not that far off from what the actual result will be.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stella had 229R seats, I think pollsters think 2010 you still haven't heard from MT Treasure, but Rs won in 1994/2010 on Obamacare repeal as well as gerrymandering