Election models megathread (user search)
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April 28, 2024, 12:51:30 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Election models megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Election models megathread  (Read 22726 times)
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,891
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70
« on: June 30, 2022, 01:22:47 PM »
« edited: June 30, 2022, 01:29:14 PM by President Johnson »
Actually not that bad for Democrats, especially for governor and senate. However, a 87% winning chance for Whitmer seems pretty high; the modeal also gives her 54.8% of the vote, which is more than she got in 2018. In addition, I also wonder why Pritzker has a 99% winning chance and Hochul just 98%?

Is Connecticut's fifth district actually that much of a tossup? Would be bad to lose Hayes.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,891
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70
« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2022, 02:39:36 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 29, 2022, 02:12:47 PM
Democrats are now more than a 2:1 favorite for Senate control (67-33) in the 538 Deluxe model.  In the Classic model they're at 77-23, which equals R probability of House control in both models.

Democratic chances increase almost daily at this rate here. Just the House forecast remains stubborn. Was 78-22 for long, now it's 77-23.
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,891
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70
« Reply #2 on: September 13, 2022, 02:00:10 PM »
FiveThirtyEight: Democrats up to 71% in the senate, Republicans down to 73% in the House. You love to see the trendline!
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,891
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2022, 01:45:42 PM »
FiveThirtyEight has now both parties at a 71% chance for keeping the senate and taking the House (in the the deluxe models).
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President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,891
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70
« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2022, 03:13:59 PM »
Ladies and Gentlemen, FiveThirtyEight's Deluxe model has Republican chances for the House at 69% now. Lowest on record this cycle.
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