🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 26, 2024, 09:50:00 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 44
Author Topic: 🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)  (Read 57381 times)
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #175 on: April 03, 2023, 02:52:20 PM »
« edited: April 03, 2023, 02:55:49 PM by DavidB. »

In Flevoland, there will be an attempt to form a right-wing coalition consisting of BBB, VVD, PVV, ChristenUnie and SGP, potentially joined by JA21 who are not needed for a majority but could make the coalition stronger. A very interesting situation. Almost seems unthinkable that CU and PVV would cooperate.

BBB apparently preferred cooperation with VVD and PvdA. The PvdA only want to govern together with GL - but BBB and VVD don't want both PvdA and GL. BBB also prefer not to cooperate with FVD. CU claim cooperating with the PVV would be "difficult" - but will it be impossible? Let's see...
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #176 on: April 05, 2023, 11:19:35 AM »

In Noord-Holland, coalition explorer Ankie Broekers-Knol (VVD) suggests the formation of a coalition of BBB, VVD, GroenLinks and PvdA.

In Gelderland, BBB leader Rik Loeters has stated he wants to form a coalition with VVD, CDA, SGP and JA21.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #177 on: April 05, 2023, 03:39:25 PM »

Debate about election result and nitrogen is taking place now. Constitutionally there is an unprecedented situation, because the government has to be unified (for this reason, CDA Deputy Minister Mona Keijzer was fired after criticizing the COVID QR code system) and it isn't, because the CDA want to negotiate a change in the coalition agreement somewhere in the future, and it is unclear when. They want this moment to depend on the progress in an agricultural pact between the government and agricultural organizations, and on the negotiations in the provinces. But the provinces don't know whether they have to abide by 2030 (coalition agreement target) or 2035 (current law) to receive money from the so-called Transition Fund, and all parties have to admit it is not completely clear. D66 and VVD can't rule out provinces receiving money even if they don't abide by 2030, but say they still have to "aim for" 2030. Guess what: BBB-led provincial governments won't.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't see how the government survives longer than a few more months. The debate shows D66 is too committed to 2030 to let it go; CDA is too committed to renegotiating it. The only possible compromise would be 2032 or 2033, but it would be a suicidal compromise for both D66 and CDA. I'd bet on a snap election in the autumn.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #178 on: April 21, 2023, 10:03:00 AM »
« Edited: April 21, 2023, 10:39:36 AM by DavidB. »

- Negotiations for an agricultural pact between the government and stakeholders have broken down.

- Coalition formation is still ongoing in all provinces. It seems BBB prefers "grand coalitions" including PvdA (and sometimes GL too) almost everywhere, including in provinces where they could govern with CDA, VVD and JA21 alone. In some provinces (Limburg, Groningen, Drenthe), the PvdA have let go of GL to form a coalition with BBB, which causes bad blood within GL. Meanwhile, D66 used to be part of the coalition in about half of the provinces but are now sidelined everywhere - while GL is still set to govern in a good number of provinces. This is Jetten's strategy of D66's repositioning as "climate nagger party", which has successfully taken issue ownership over environmental and climate issues from GL by placing it in the most extreme position besides PvdD, coming back as a boomerang for D66.

- Richard de Mos, leader of the biggest party in The Hague (Groep De Mos/Hart voor Den Haag), has been completely acquitted from all corruption charges in court today, and the judge did not hold back in rebuking the claims. De Mos' party became the biggest in 2018 and again in 2022. They entered the city government in 2018, but the coalition collapsed in 2019 when the public prosecutor had announced a criminal investigation against De Mos, after which a new coalition was formed without De Mos. In 2022, other parties excluded De Mos. The bitter conclusion is that the public prosecutor's wrong judgment call has had a major impact on policy in The Hague for two city government terms. Not holding my breath for Neelie Kroes (VVD) to be subject of a similar investigation after flouting the cooling-down rules and lobbying for Uber illegally. This country has one standard for one type of politicians and another standard for another type. Donations from small businesses, rooted in one's community, are "suspect" - but for big multinational oligarchs all doors are always open.

- I&O - the new gold standard, imo - had a poll on April 17, the first one since the PS election:


I was skeptical about the VVD losing more support after the PS election but this confirms it. Really bad numbers for the government in general. The right-wing opposition is at an all-time high:

Logged
JimJamUK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 814
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #179 on: April 21, 2023, 11:40:38 AM »

- Coalition formation is still ongoing in all provinces. It seems BBB prefers "grand coalitions" including PvdA (and sometimes GL too) almost everywhere, including in provinces where they could govern with CDA, VVD and JA21 alone. In some provinces (Limburg, Groningen, Drenthe), the PvdA have let go of GL to form a coalition with BBB, which causes bad blood within GL. Meanwhile, D66 used to be part of the coalition in about half of the provinces but are now sidelined everywhere - while GL is still set to govern in a good number of provinces. This is Jetten's strategy of D66's repositioning as "climate nagger party", which has successfully taken issue ownership over environmental and climate issues from GL by placing it in the most extreme position besides PvdD, coming back as a boomerang for D66.]
Is there any reconsideration of the growing alignment between GL and PVDA? From the outside it seems odd that they would compete together for these elections and then not even form government together. The PVDA as an establishment, pragmatic party of the centre-left does seem an awkward fit for an idealistic, strongly progressive-left party like GL.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #180 on: April 24, 2023, 04:32:00 AM »

Is there any reconsideration of the growing alignment between GL and PVDA? From the outside it seems odd that they would compete together for these elections and then not even form government together. The PVDA as an establishment, pragmatic party of the centre-left does seem an awkward fit for an idealistic, strongly progressive-left party like GL.
Some members in both parties are unhappy, and this sentiment has increased over the last weeks, but it is not (yet) the sort of wave that can prevent the merger. But maybe dissatisfaction will grow after these coalitions with PvdA without GL actually become reality.

Here a good infographic on the coalitions that are now formed:
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #181 on: April 25, 2023, 02:58:24 AM »
« Edited: April 25, 2023, 04:27:34 AM by DavidB. »

Finally: PS election results per polling station (although DENK and SGP are missing - apparently they only cared about the X biggest parties, which is sloppy). It was calculated that almost half of the BBB votes come from urban areas.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #182 on: May 01, 2023, 01:26:40 PM »

Finally: PS election results per polling station (although DENK and SGP are missing - apparently they only cared about the X biggest parties, which is sloppy). It was calculated that almost half of the BBB votes come from urban areas.
Better version, this time including SGP: https://www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v/2023/wat-stemde-uw-wijk-bekijk-hier-de-uitslagen-van-de-provinciale-statenverkiezingen-in-uw-stembureau~v678958/.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #183 on: May 09, 2023, 10:59:25 AM »

Not a lot going on in the Netherlands. Could be calm before the storm. Biggest news item has been Caroline van der Plas (BBB) refusing to attend Zelensky's last-minute visit to Parliament on National Memorial Day since she found it inappropriate to conflate the war in Ukraine with it, even though she supports Ukraine. She's received quite a lot of backlash for that, but went down only by one seat in the Peil.nl poll which was conducted over the weekend. I don't think her voters will really care about this.

Meanwhile, BBB has been booted out of the negotiations in Utrecht. After BBB and GL had broken down negotiations, the explorer had suggested to form a coalition of BBB, VVD, CDA, CU, SGP, JA21 and Volt - without GL. But Utrecht is the most left-liberal province and Volt had no business in such a coalition, although it was CU that immediately struck down the idea too. Now, some combination of GL, PvdA, VVD and D66 will probably enter provincial government, meaning that there will at least be one province where D66 won't stand on the sideline.
Logged
Harlow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 567


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #184 on: May 22, 2023, 06:39:41 PM »

PvdD achieves their best polling result in history with 7.9% in the new I&O poll. I know we're working with single digit numbers here, but, well, it's electoral politics in the Netherlands.



Logged
CumbrianLefty
CumbrianLeftie
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,367
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #185 on: May 23, 2023, 09:54:26 AM »

Ahead of the PvdA too!
Logged
Harlow
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 567


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #186 on: May 23, 2023, 06:41:22 PM »

Yes, the highest-polling party on the left. Quite something, but certainly shows how polarizing the nitrogen issue has become.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #187 on: May 30, 2023, 11:07:05 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2023, 11:47:09 AM by DavidB. »

Today, the election of the new Senate took place. The members of the twelve newly elected Provincial States, the electoral college Bonaire, Saba & St Eustatius and the new electoral college non-residents (for Dutch voters abroad) convened to do so. Results were announced on the spot and will be made official tomorrow:

Seats (compared to 2019):

BBB 16 (+16)
VVD 10 (-2)
GL 7 (-1)
PvdA 7 (+1)
CDA 6 (-3)
D66 5 (-2)
PVV 4 (-1)
SP 3 (-1)
PvdD 3 (nc)
JA21 3 (+3)
ChristenUnie 3 (-1)
Forum voor Democratie 2 (-10)
SGP 2 (nc)
Volt 2 (+2)
50Plus 1 (-1)
Independent 1 (nc)

Government 24 (-8)

Compared to the prognosis after the March election, BBB, PVV and GL lost one seat; CDA, CU and Volt won one. This leaves the government with 24 seats, 2 more than in the prognosis, which is relevant as they now have a majority together with the combined GL-PvdA parliamentary group (they ran two different slates but will form one group): 38 seats, the bare minimum. This means they can use both a "left-wing road" and a "right-wing road" (with BBB) to a majority.

It was already expected that D66 and VVD members would vote CDA and CU to maximize the government's seat number. They did so at least in Overijssel, where 2 VVD members voted CDA and one D66 member for CU. In Zeeland, on the other hand, a CU member voted for the SGP to secure them their second seat.

Unplanned, on the other hand, was GroenLinks Member of the PS Debora Fernald voting for Volt in Zuid-Holland. This cost GL its eight seat and handed Volt its second one (and she was immediately kicked out of GL in Zuid-Holland; their group leader Sinan Özkaya stormed out of the session in emotion and shock). As a result, GL and PvdA will be exactly as big as they were in the previous term: together they have 14 seats. Kind of a PR bummer for merger supporters, but because of the government's two additional seats, the left-wing road to a Senate majority remains open.

A Senate election with no drama is no fun anyway. The best example remains the D66 member who, in 2011, voted with his ballpoint pen in blue instead of with the red pencil provided by the Provincial States, rendering his vote invalid and costing D66 a seat (which went to the SP). Last time, in 2019, an FVD member voted for the SGP to secure them their second seat. And in 2007, GL member Cheryl Braam was so over the moon she could vote for the Senate that she voted for all GL candidates when she should have voted for one candidate only - result: an invalid vote and a Senate seat changing hands. The complicated electoral system (with different vote weights for different provinces, based on their population) in which individual Members of the Provincial States hold an unusual amount of power always leads to surprising outcomes.

Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #188 on: June 16, 2023, 04:56:02 AM »
« Edited: June 16, 2023, 05:03:18 AM by DavidB. »

- MEP Sophie in 't Veld, the European Parliament delegation leader for D66 since 2004 (!), has left her party and has become a Volt member. In an open letter to D66 members this morning, she decries the decreased focus on Europe within the party, the lack of innovative, radical thinking on Europe, and the way the party has dealt with (sexual) harassment cases in the past years. The latter point implicitly refers to the Frans van Drimmelen case, a prominent consultant and high-level D66 member who harassed women, who felt they weren't being heard; it also refers to In 't Veld's only D66 colleague in the European Parliament, Samira Rafaela, with whom she is not on speaking terms and who was the subject of an investigation into harassment. Reading between the lines, it seems In 't Veld had been sidelined by the D66 leadership (Kaag, who was parachuted to the leadership and is not a D66 insider, and the people surrounding her) for a while. Being in Brussels for so long apparently creates a kind of distance, even in a pro-EU party like D66 and even when Brussels is geographically so close to the Netherlands. In 't Veld states that her future is in Europe, and it seems obvious she will be the #1 candidate for Volt. She would then be re-elected for sure.

- Coalition formation in the provinces is finally coming to an end - at least in some places. In Gelderland, where 60% of "peak polluters" in the agricultural sector reside (i.e. the ones the government wants to buy out), BBB, VVD, CDA, SGP and ChristenUnie formed a coalition. They agreed that 2035 will be the target year for nitrogen reduction and there will be no forced buyouts; a BBB win, and both a massive middle finger and a massive problem for the national government. Overijssel and Drenthe are to follow along these lines.

In Flevoland, meanwhile, a coalition with BBB, VVD, PVV, ChristenUnie and SGP was formed, which means the de-facto cordon sanitaire against the PVV post-2012 has been broken - not unexpectedly so, but I'd have placed my bets on Limburg being the place where it would happen, and certainly not on the ChristenUnie being part of it.

Things are more difficult in the big provinces of Zuid-Holland, where a BBB-VVD-GL-PvdA coalition is still investigated, and Noord-Brabant, where talks between these same parties have just collapsed.

- The new Senate has assumed office. The name of the combined GroenLinks and PvdA parliamentary group will be... GroenLinks-PvdA. Green first, red second; a fitting description of their course.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #189 on: June 21, 2023, 02:07:32 PM »

Negotiations for an agricultural pact between the government and organisations representing the agricultural sector have broken down. A big defeat for the government, first of all for Agriculture Minister Piet Adema (CU). Meanwhile, coalition after coalition is being formed on the provincial level, with BBB's demands - no forced buyouts, 2035 as target year instead of 2030 - honored everywhere, even in Zuid-Holland, where PvdA and GL are also in the coalition.

Now, the ball is in the CDA's court. They wanted to await the provincial coalition agreements and the agricultural pact before entering new negotiations with VVD, D66 and CU over the content of the coalition agreement regarding nitrogen and agriculture. This is the moment. It could be a hot summer for the govenrment.

Meanwhile, the government has failed to find a blocking minority for EU Commissioners Timmermans and Sinkevicius' Nature Restoration Law in the Council (no veto power on this theme). It cannot be understated how massive the effect of this EU regulation will be on the Netherlands. If the European Parliament does not vote it off the table in plenary, the nitrogen crisis will be dwarved by this. To be continued too...
Logged
Cassius
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,584


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #190 on: June 21, 2023, 02:23:15 PM »

Hoist by their own commissioner as it were.
Logged
PSOL
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,790
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #191 on: June 21, 2023, 03:28:54 PM »

BBB finally being the force to destroy Rutte is something that I’d love to see.

Seems like slowly but surely Geert Wilders is finally moving upwards.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #192 on: June 29, 2023, 01:32:44 PM »

Because we don't have any real problems like compensating victims of the Groningen earthquake scandal, or compensating the victims of the childcare benefit scandal, or fixing the nitrogen crisis, or record inflation, or asylum immigration being out of control and people sleeping outside again this summer, or a massive housing crisis, the government is focusing on what's really needed.

According to them, that means increasing the excise tax on car fuels per July 1 and introducing - per 2030 - a new way of pricing car usage which will make driving more expensive for people who drive a lot, including for commuters who work essential jobs - incredibly enough, people will also have to pay for kilometers driven abroad.

But the worst thought-out plan was presented by Healthcare Deputy Minister Maarten van Ooijen (ChristenUnie), who wants to ban wine (and all alcoholic drinks with an alcohol percentage over 6%) from supermarkets, all alcohol from canteens at sports clubs (so no beer after a football game at your local amateur club; RIP these clubs), and no alcohol sales after 10 PM anymore. Apparently the Taliban has not just taken power in Afghanistan but also in the Netherlands. I expect VVD and D66 to strike down some of the worst components in here, and undoubtedly some of these idiotic ideas are only in the plan to make sure the slightly less bad ones pass, but the way things are moving I don't intend to ever move back to this Godforsaken country anymore.

/rant
Logged
Cassius
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,584


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #193 on: June 30, 2023, 04:56:13 AM »

The proposed ban on alcohol sales after 10 is a carbon copy of the present law in Scotland. Clearly K(i/e)rk’s of a feather flock together.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #194 on: June 30, 2023, 05:34:18 AM »

Don't forget you can still buy a big, fat blunt until well after midnight though, because CU won't be able to take away this crown jewel from D66. Good business opportunity.
Logged
Conservatopia
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,151
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: 0.72, S: 8.60

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #195 on: June 30, 2023, 05:45:49 AM »

Has Pieter Omtzigt made any indication of his future political intentions?

Whilst on the surface he seems BBB-compatible he may be better off running on his own list.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #196 on: June 30, 2023, 06:01:03 AM »

Has Pieter Omtzigt made any indication of his future political intentions?

Whilst on the surface he seems BBB-compatible he may be better off running on his own list.
It is not clear yet. Van der Plas is evidently courting him and he is 100% BBB compatible. The question seems to be whether his ego can accept joining a party in which someone else is already a superstar (too) and won an election. But if they run together, it would have the potential for a political earthquake (50+ seats) that would break our party system and attract voters from all sides. If they run separately, either BBB's flame or Omtzigt's flame will extinguish.
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,029
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #197 on: June 30, 2023, 09:15:29 AM »

Don't forget you can still buy a big, fat blunt until well after midnight though, because CU won't be able to take away this crown jewel from D66. Good business opportunity.

Hmm I would say there is a perverse logic to this : the people in central Amsterdam causing mayhem are the public "lads on tour"-style drinkers, not the stoners. Those are just annoying.

Anyway its important to not blame the substance, but rather the type of people we're bringing up in the world.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #198 on: June 30, 2023, 09:31:19 AM »

Don't forget you can still buy a big, fat blunt until well after midnight though, because CU won't be able to take away this crown jewel from D66. Good business opportunity.

Hmm I would say there is a perverse logic to this : the people in central Amsterdam causing mayhem are the public "lads on tour"-style drinkers, not the stoners. Those are just annoying.

Anyway its important to not blame the substance, but rather the type of people we're bringing up in the world.
That would actually be a logical reasoning (well, a reasoning for a local ban within central Amsterdam which wouldn't affect the other 99% of the Dutch population), but Deputy Minister Van Ooijen himself does not refer to Amsterdam, nor have I seen anything from him indicating his concern about alcohol consumption is a public order concern, which is not his portfolio anyway. For him, this is about public health.

And just as I dislike the hypocrisy of the countless number of countries that embrace alcohol collectively but have North Korean style sentences for peaceful weed smokers, I also dislike the Western tendency to ban smoking and drinking as much as possible but, at the same time, open up policy for weed more and more. This may be a very liberal Dutch opinion, but my opinion is: let people decide for themselves and let them live a little.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,520
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #199 on: July 01, 2023, 06:38:59 PM »

Four more provincial coalitions were formed. In Utrecht: GL-VVD-D66-CDA-PvdA. In Zuid-Holland: BBB-VVD-GroenLinks-CDA-PvdA. In Zeeland: BBB-SGP-CDA-VVD. And in Groningen: BBB-PvdA-CU-Groninger Belang.

Earlier on, coalitions were formed in Limburg (BBB-VVD-CDA-PvdA-SP), Gelderland (BBB-VVD-CDA-CU-SG) and Flevoland (BBB-VVD-CU-SGP-PVV).

On its way before the summer: Drenthe (BBB-VVD-PvdA-CDA).

Noord-Holland and Overijssel will take a bit longer; in Noord-Brabant and Friesland, negotiations have collapsed, with BBB (Noord-Brabant) and PvdA (Friesland) leaving the table.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 3 4 5 6 7 [8] 9 10 11 12 13 ... 44  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 12 queries.