🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[CumbrianLefty]

Ahead of the PvdA too!

[CumbrianLefty]

When is the deadline for Omtzigt to put up or shut up about forming his own party?

[CumbrianLefty]

That has to be possible, yes.

Though the fact he is being "realistic" in his aspirations may increase the appeal to some.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its interesting that people would consider the VVD to be "holding up well" compared to the Tories in the UK when most polls show them getting 27 or 28 seats out of 150 - meaning about 18% of the national popular vote.

Imagine if the UK Tories got 18% of the national popular vote - that would be considered an extinction event! Now of course it goes without saying that the UK and the Netherlands have radically different electoral systems and in Dutch politics there are huge incentives to vote for smaller parties that simply do not exist in the UK 

Well, to put the "different electoral systems" shoe on the other foot, Tony Blair managed a 412-166 landslide over the Tories in '01 w/virtually the same percentage that Walter Mondale got in his all-but-home-state-and-DC landslide loss to Ronald Reagan in '84.

Which just shows the fundamental meaninglessness of such a comparison, really

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, no chance Wilders leads the government.

Omtzigt has now announced that he is willing to be PM, but only in a government consisting of experts. Smart move and could save some of his support, as this is a rather popular idea. But he should really have come up with it earlier. He comes across as too indecisive.

This could also be perceived as a desperate flip-flop in order to regain votes. And, let's be frank, a government of experts? Sure.

Such proposals always have a certain amount of electoral appeal due to "anti-politics" sentiment.

[CumbrianLefty]

I've gotta say, coming days after Argentina this has definitely been a rough few weeks for those of us on the Left. Although perhaps not entirely unforeseeable.

Next major elections seem to be Taiwan and Finland next January.

Though there is an argument that Wilders didn't win this election as much as Omzigt losing it - if he maintains the support he had going into this campaign we have a very different narrative.

And there is a real possibility of another election soon, where the PVV could easily lose support.

[CumbrianLefty]

All this talk about DENK and nobody noticed the PVV coalition scout resigned after only days on the job?

Yes, over fraud allegations against Van Strien of which Wilders wasn't aware. Bad start and it highlights the major issues the PVV will have in finding qualified people for top jobs, especially if they actually enter the government.

This sort of thing has done for populist right parties before, so watch this space.

[CumbrianLefty]

"Greater restrictions on family reunions" is the sort of thing many approve in theory, but not quite as much in actual practice. "It was meant to apply to those other bad immigrants, not these good ones".

[CumbrianLefty]

Martin Bosma (PVV) has just been elected Speaker of the Parliament. He received 75 votes out of 146 votes cast, Van der Lee (GL-PvdA) received 66, the remainder went to MPs who hadn't declared themselves candidates. Another breakthrough moment for the PVV and painful for the left.

The new speaker has a history of dubious comments about AS and WW2.

But yeah, "owned the libs"