🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

If Omtzigt does form a list and get a lot of MPs elected, what are the chances that they continue to form a coherent group for the whole term?

In this case there will inevitably be conflict and splitoffs. This seems almost unavoidable, taking into account that a) there will be so many new MPs, some of which are probably looking for a job and are not necessarily loyal, b) controversial decisions will have to be made when they are going to have a lot of power, whether in opposition or in coalition, c) Omtzigt still has a relatively vague program and can still be pretty much everything you want him to be, and d) there is very little time left to vet candidates properly. In the best case scenario for Omtzigt, this will be limited to some isolated cases; in the worst case, the entire project breaks up and takes down Omtzigt too.

The same risks also exist for BBB.

[Oryxslayer]

If Omtzigt does form a list and get a lot of MPs elected, what are the chances that they continue to form a coherent group for the whole term?

In this case there will inevitably be conflict and splitoffs. This seems almost unavoidable, taking into account that a) there will be so many new MPs, some of which are probably looking for a job and are not necessarily loyal, b) controversial decisions will have to be made when they are going to have a lot of power, whether in opposition or in coalition, c) Omtzigt still has a relatively vague program and can still be pretty much everything you want him to be, and d) there is very little time left to vet candidates properly. In the best case scenario for Omtzigt, this will be limited to some isolated cases; in the worst case, the entire project breaks up and takes down Omtzigt too.

The same risks also exist for BBB.

Okay so after all this is said: is there any chance Omtzigt makes an offer to/tries to direct a non-CDA/BBB party with deeper roots than 0 elections?

Cause I can think of plenty of other situations in other countries where widely popular figures and their small clique are enthusiastically welcomed to the ticket of a party they may not be 100% aligned with, simply out of mutual benefits. Even if everyone parts ways after getting their seats, its usually into the two groups - who'll still probably work in government together - rather than a mass fracturing of independents to the opposition benches.

[DavidB.]

Okay so after all this is said: is there any chance Omtzigt makes an offer to/tries to direct a non-CDA/BBB party with deeper roots than 0 elections?

Cause I can think of plenty of other situations in other countries where widely popular figures and their small clique are enthusiastically welcomed to the ticket of a party they may not be 100% aligned with, simply out of mutual benefits.

Omtzigt would be welcomed in plenty of parties, he already said no to BBB and JA21. The issue is that he is picky himself. BBB still want him, Van der Plas keeps trying to court him. It would by far be the most logical decision for him to accept the #2 spot on the list, perhaps be their candidate for PM, and otherwise negotiate a position in which he can operate as an MP somewhat independently, get a massive say in their decisions/direction, and receive a ton of budget for staffers. BBB would immediately take the deal. But Omtzigt won't: after the CDA debacle, he doesn't trust anyone anymore. The sad scenario you can already see approaching is that he will disappointed again.

[Harlow]

In the 2021 campaign, Omtzigt's status was so big that the party could no longer sideline him or treat him disrespectfully in public, but the party elite hated his guts - leaked WhatsApp messages show he was called "psychopath", "sick man", "asshole", "insane" and "mentally unstable" in additions to rumors about him being "depressed".

He should lean into it by tattooing these words on his face like Jared Leto's Joker.

[DavidB.]

First I&O poll after the collapse of the government and all related developments. Same trends as with De Hond, but BBB a lot lower and PvdA-GL higher. PvdA-GL ahead, followed by VVD (gaining) and BBB (losing to VVD and PVV). Nitrogen/agriculture not being a top issue right now and BBB having a limited profile on other issues is starting to hurt them - but the campaign is still long.



36% of voters consider immigration/asylum the most important topic now - up from 15% in March 2021. 51% are positive about the collapse of the government, only 20% aren't. 37% think the VVD are responsible for it, 33% blame all four coalition parties.

And here a poll with potential Omtzigt participation (in red):

[mileslunn]

With it being so fragmented, what type of coalitions could potentially emerge.  Doesn't look like either left, centrist, centre-right or right wing populist have anywhere near a majority so seems like would be quite awkward.  What are the possible coalitions?

[DavidB.]

With it being so fragmented, what type of coalitions could potentially emerge.  Doesn't look like either left, centrist, centre-right or right wing populist have anywhere near a majority so seems like would be quite awkward.  What are the possible coalitions?

There is no obvious path to any functioning majority coalition in this poll (in the no Omtzigt scenario). Something along the lines of VVD, BBB, CDA, JA21 and SP seems most likely, but currently falls short of a majority. The VVD could end the blockade of the PVV, but this would mean CDA and SP are out. Perhaps we are heading for minority government territory, with just VVD and BBB in government, looking for changing parliamentary majorities - there is a right-wing majority of 81 seats, so this could actually work. But the campaign is still long and a two-horse race dynamic could make things easier, as in 2012.

[DavidB.]

Frans Timmermans is all in for the PvdA/GL leading candidate job. So not just as PM candidate, but also as #1 on the list, which means he will leave the European Commission if PvdA/GL let him become the candidate (and if they weren’t going to do it, he wouldn’t have announced he’s in).

[CumbrianLefty]

When is the deadline for Omtzigt to put up or shut up about forming his own party?

[Logical]

So that makes it two out of three Vice Presidents of the EC with one foot out of door.

[Lord Halifax]

With it being so fragmented, what type of coalitions could potentially emerge.  Doesn't look like either left, centrist, centre-right or right wing populist have anywhere near a majority so seems like would be quite awkward.  What are the possible coalitions?

There is no obvious path to any functioning majority coalition in this poll (in the no Omtzigt scenario). Something along the lines of VVD, BBB, CDA, JA21 and SP seems most likely, but currently falls short of a majority. The VVD could end the blockade of the PVV, but this would mean CDA and SP are out. Perhaps we are heading for minority government territory, with just VVD and BBB in government, looking for changing parliamentary majorities - there is a right-wing majority of 81 seats, so this could actually work. But the campaign is still long and a two-horse race dynamic could make things easier, as in 2012.

why would SP join such a "right wing" government?

[DavidB.]

When is the deadline for Omtzigt to put up or shut up about forming his own party?

August 28 is the last possible date for the registration of a party name. October 9 is the official day of candidacy, the entire list should be known by then and all the paperwork for participation in election (including declarations of support etc.) has to be finalized.

Ironically, all these good (hypothetical) polls for Omtzigt probably make his participation in all of the country less likely, as the risk gets higher. Many new parties just have 10 insiders and take the risk of making mistakes lower on the list, because these people won't get in anyway. But if Omtzigt participates, he really has to select 50 candidates who can actually enter parliament without scandals and problems - because most of them would probably get in. Also, interestingly, a new party can only have a list with a maximum of 50 candidates, while it isn't unthinkable he would win more - in this case, these seats would remain empty, they are not attributed to other parties.

[DavidB.]

why would SP join such a "right wing" government?

BBB say they want to govern with the SP and the SP say they want to govern with BBB. I suppose they want to seize this moment of political change. And in such a government, I don't think it would be impossible for the SP to reach a number of very concrete breakthroughs regarding healthcare (drastic decrease of copayments), labor migration (additional restrictions), flexible labor contracts (additional restrictions), and housing (mass construction of rental housing). On most of these issues, most parties have shifted in the SP's direction - this just wasn't reflected in government because with VVD, CDA and D66, we almost had the most economically right-wing composition possible with a parliamentary majority. But D66 would be out (and will move leftward under Jetten), CDA would be weakened and the VVD will have to govern with more economically left-wing partners anyway; this is a consequence of the implosion of the "center-right" bloc and the shift of voters to more populist parties. Rutte being out also leaves space for the VVD to manoeuvre differently and for the SP to be less reluctant in cooperating with them ("Rutte was the problem").

[DavidB.]

Rotterdam mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb, who was named as a potential contender for the PvdA/GL leadership, supports Timmermans and will not be a candidate himself. With GL leader Jesse Klaver also having confirmed not to run, this leaves Amsterdam alderwoman Marjolein Moorman as the only serious other contender left, but she has almost no national name recognition - I'm sure she'll soon draw the conclusion that she won't run. She could be his "running mate", except for the fact she's also PvdA.

[Zinneke]

Frans Timmermans isn't just dipping his toe in then. He can sense the moment.

I still am in two minds about the merger : I actually think it benefits the Left to be able to target different types of voters and not be pencilled in as an urban party, which is the risk when working with GL activist types. But Timmermans is actually very effective at changing his message according to his audience. They could deploy him in his home region Limburg and places like Gronigen and rack up voters. So let's see how this turns out. I think as David was alluding to they definitely want to recreate the dynamic of the 2012 campaign, seeing if voter blocks can consolidate over the PM contest.

[EastAnglianLefty]

If PvdA/GL did lead a government, who would they end up in coalition with? Presumably either D66 or SP (but perhaps not both) would be easy to win over, but who else would they bring in? Would they be able to work with BBB?

[Red Velvet]

Netherlands can’t help itself to be anything other than hardline capitalists.

[Oryxslayer]

If PvdA/GL did lead a government, who would they end up in coalition with? Presumably either D66 or SP (but perhaps not both) would be easy to win over, but who else would they bring in? Would they be able to work with BBB?

Them forming government would probably require a wide coalition of the winners that stretches across ideological lines...which really should be the expectation in almost any scenario given the fragmentation. Though I think the alliance would prefer teaming up with Omtzigt than the other potential large parties,  at least right now.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I guess a potentially more useful way of looking at it would be who gets left out of a given government?

[freek]

When is the deadline for Omtzigt to put up or shut up about forming his own party?

August 28 is the last possible date for the registration of a party name. October 9 is the official day of candidacy, the entire list should be known by then and all the paperwork for participation in election (including declarations of support etc.) has to be finalized.

Ironically, all these good (hypothetical) polls for Omtzigt probably make his participation in all of the country less likely, as the risk gets higher. Many new parties just have 10 insiders and take the risk of making mistakes lower on the list, because these people won't get in anyway. But if Omtzigt participates, he really has to select 50 candidates who can actually enter parliament without scandals and problems - because most of them would probably get in. Also, interestingly, a new party can only have a list with a maximum of 50 candidates, while it isn't unthinkable he would win more - in this case, these seats would remain empty, they are not attributed to other parties.

Be aware that the maximum is per electoral district. Parties may have different candidates per district (or group of districts). Back in the days this was pretty normal, but since the maximum number of candidates was raised from 30 to 50 hardly any party uses this option anymore.

[DavidB.]

If PvdA/GL did lead a government, who would they end up in coalition with? Presumably either D66 or SP (but perhaps not both) would be easy to win over, but who else would they bring in? Would they be able to work with BBB?

This is the big issue for the left: the math just doesn't add up. Dutch voters switch parties all the time but they tend to stay within their "bloc", of which there are roughly three: left-progressive, center-right and right-populist. D66 is on the edge between the first and the second, BBB and JA21 on the edge of the second and the third; being on the edge of two blocks is the place where you can win spectacularly but also lose spectacularly.

I think Timmermans can win 40+ seats, but everything he wins goes at the expense of his potential coalition partners, mostly D66 and Volt (and probably to a lesser extent also SP and PvdD). The only "out-of-block" voters that might go for him are in his native Limburg. The SP and Timmermans aren't such great friends either.

So the GL/PvdA strategy is to make voters forget about the coalition math and just to try and come first in the election; then, even though we have a proportional system in which the difference between 25.1% and 24.8% is rather irrelevant, it will be spun as an "election victory" and as "undemocratic" not to cooperate with Timmermans - a little ridiculous, but I'd also do the same if my party "won" that way...

Fun fact: the last time a party became the largest but was sidelined was... the PvdA, which won the 1977 election with Joop den Uyl after leading the most left-wing government in Dutch history, but ended up in opposition because CDA and VVD formed a coalition anyway. I wouldn't rule out a similar scenario this time, but given the "personalization" of politics these days it might be harder to sell it.

In the end, however, PvdA/GL will probably have together with the VVD, with BBB, or with Omtzigt's hypothetical party - the latter would probably be the easiest to work with, but a VVD that has just caused a government to collapse over asylum and migration or BBB, a party that literally owes all of its electoral success to a movement against Green Deal-type measures, probably aren't very feasible coalition partners. If the VVD now enters a government as junior partner under Frans Timmermans, it will be well and truly dead - there will be no repairing its reputation with right-wing voters afterwards. With a VVD PM, it might be a different matter - but in that case it is PvdA/GL who will rightfully fear a 2012 redux.

Speaking about Omtzigt: he said he will make an announcement next week. I am increasingly convinced that at least he won't run in all of the country; perhaps only in Overijssel.

Be aware that the maximum is per electoral district. Parties may have different candidates per district (or group of districts). Back in the days this was pretty normal, but since the maximum number of candidates was raised from 30 to 50 hardly any party uses this option anymore.

True.

Netherlands can’t help itself to be anything other than hardline capitalists.

Sure, hardcore capitalist Netherlands. Please read up on the Dutch welfare system - still one of the best in the world, supported by all relevant parties - before placing white noise driveby comments.

[mileslunn]

Netherlands has an image as a fairly progressive party yet it seems pretty much every election, more vote for parties on the right than left so why is that?  UK, Australia, and US generally perceived as more conservative yet plenty of times where more vote for parties on left than right in those three.  True Democrats might have some who would be on left in Netherlands, but Labor Australia and UK Labour would definitely be on left even in Netherlands while Liberal Democrats in UK are sort of akin to D66 so borderline.

[DavidB.]

Missed this, but yesterday SP leader Lilian Marijnissen said in a radio show that the Netherlands can take in 75,000 asylum seekers annually if we just distribute them evenly across municipalities while taking into account socio-economic circumstances. Not a smart comment at all, considering that a sizeable part of the SP base holds views close to the PVV on this issue (as shown once again by a De Hond poll this month). Geert Wilders is already hammering her on this and will probably keep doing so throughout the campaign.

Netherlands has an image as a fairly progressive party yet it seems pretty much every election, more vote for parties on the right than left so why is that?  UK, Australia, and US generally perceived as more conservative yet plenty of times where more vote for parties on left than right in those three.  True Democrats might have some who would be on left in Netherlands, but Labor Australia and UK Labour would definitely be on left even in Netherlands while Liberal Democrats in UK are sort of akin to D66 so borderline.

We are viewed as progressive because of themes such as drug policy, euthanasia, gay marriage, abortion, window prostitution etc., on which we were among the first countries in the world to have socially liberal policies. Some of these were introduced under the purple governments (PvdA-VVD-D66), but on some of them, the CDA have been involved as well. Part of the political reason behind this image is therefore that the two historically most important right-wing parties, VVD and CDA (but mostly VVD), have long been more socially liberal than their counterparts in most of the world, which also matches most Dutch people's attitude on these issues (note that supporting its legality =/= considering something acceptable or "normal"; the difference between tolerance and acceptance very much matters in NL). Even our populist right-wing parties tend to be fairly liberal on issues like these - drug policy is the most contentious one, and the right is opposed to moving even further in the socially liberal direction on themes like abortion and euthanasia, but that's about where the debate is.

[DL]

Doesnt the Netherlands have a pretty advanced welfare state much like Germany and the Scandinavian countries? How did they get that if the left has never won an election?

[Angel of Death]

If the election does end up in a mathematically hopeless parliament, perhaps the often touted "technocratic" government will finally make its reappearance in the Netherlands for real.