Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 31541 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #625 on: July 27, 2022, 05:32:40 PM »

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20220727-47375/

"Japan’s Kishi admits support from Unification Church members"

Abe's brother and defense minister Kishi who is responsible for investigating the security lapses that led to the assassination of his brother comes out that the also has links to Unification Church
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Logical
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« Reply #626 on: July 28, 2022, 10:41:44 AM »
« Edited: July 29, 2022, 08:51:15 AM by Logical »

I'm surprised that anyone's surprised by the revelations. The Abe-Kishi family has been patrons to the Moonies since forever! If you were in the LDP in the 70s until the 90s then you probably employed Moonies at some point.
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jaichind
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« Reply #627 on: July 29, 2022, 04:11:10 AM »

I'm surprised that anyone's surprised by the revelations. The Abe-Kishi family has been patrons to the Moonies since forever! If you were in the LDP in the 70s until the 90s then you probably employed Moonies at some point.
 

I guess there is a difference between "some of my campaign workers happen to be members of an innocuous and peaceful religions organization called Unification Church" vs "many of my campaign workers are members of a foreign cult with connections to DPRK called the Unification Church that was ordered to do so by this cult in return for various unspecified favors and endorsement by myself"
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jaichind
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« Reply #628 on: July 31, 2022, 03:44:15 AM »

The latest Kyodo poll has support/oppose Abe getting a state funeral at 45.1/53.3.  All this talk of the Unification Church in the media clearly had a toll.
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jaichind
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« Reply #629 on: July 31, 2022, 05:52:35 AM »

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/62c45d782eb16ee376b1a8124e963fe11468adf9

The Fukuoka City is rescinding an award to a student group known for cosplaying and picking up litter around the Kyushu University campus due to the said group being linked to Unification Church.

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jaichind
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« Reply #630 on: July 31, 2022, 05:54:00 AM »

The LDP faction with the most members being "outed" as having links to Unification Church is not surprising: The Abe faction.
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jaichind
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« Reply #631 on: July 31, 2022, 05:58:57 AM »

Retired LDP Upper House MP 伊達 忠一(Date Chūichi) goes on Hokkaido TV and says that Abe was active in shifting Unification Church votes from one pro-Abe LDP PR candidate that was sure to win to another pro-Abe LDP PR candidate in Upper House PR slates so his preferred candidate has a better chance of winning.


伊達 忠一(Date Chūichi) said he approached Abe to get his Unification Church votes to one he preferred and was rejected with Abe saying said votes were slated to go to another PR candidate.   As a result the pro-伊達 忠一(Date Chūichi) PR candidate choose not to contest


I am sure if we dig into how Rengo PR votes are distributed among CDP and DPP PR candidates we will find similar stories of backroom deals.
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jaichind
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« Reply #632 on: July 31, 2022, 06:04:09 AM »

The Abe assassination suspect said that he decided to go after Abe after he saw Abe speak at an Unification Church event.  Of course under that logic he should have gone after Trump as well who also spoke at the same event

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jaichind
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« Reply #633 on: July 31, 2022, 06:16:03 AM »

TBS aired an hour-long investigatory documentary on Unification Church which feels like a PR disaster for LDP.  In the documentary, it interviews former Unification Church members who said that they were pressured into donating 1.4 million JPY to the Unification Church for their arranged marriages while Zainichi Koreans only paid 140K JPY.


The reason given for this donation sum gap was because " Japanese people had to pay for their country's "sins." Koreans, as God's chosen people, were not expected to make extreme donations to the Church."


This sounds like a disaster for the LDP.

It seems a lot of people that joined the Unification Church were motivated by the prospect of getting married.  It seems the breakdown of rural traditional forms of arranged marriage with the advent of urbanization is a driver for this.  The breakdown of social bonds in urbanizing Japan in the 1960s was also a key reason for the growth of  Soka Gakkai (the real power behind KP) which created a way for people to form social bonds with each other.

It seems to break the Unification Church the government should copy Singapore and start dating clubs of course my understanding is that in Singapore they are not going that well since people going to those clubs are seen as desperate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #634 on: July 31, 2022, 02:35:23 PM »

The next competitive election is the election for governor of 沖縄県(Okinawa) on Sept 11.

The anti-base incumbent will face a pro-LDP challenger as well as a pro-JRP candidate.  The pro-JRP candidate 下地幹郎(Shimoji Mikio) was a LDP MP back in the 1990s before eventually ending up in JRP.  He has run in 沖縄県(Okinawa) 1st district in 2014 2017 and 2021 as a JRP or pro-JRP candidate and split the anti-JCP vote letting the JCP candidate win in all 3 cases.  His running this time will most likely deny the JRP vote to the pro-LDP candidate and allow the incumbent to win. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #635 on: July 31, 2022, 06:37:58 PM »

Nikkei poll on if Abe should be given a state funeral for/against 43/47 which is the second poll having it under water.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #636 on: August 01, 2022, 06:50:31 AM »

Well its arguably not a win if they go ahead with a state funeral anyway.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #637 on: August 01, 2022, 06:59:55 AM »

So Abe's murderer has effectively "won" then?

Very chilling for freedom of religion in Japan.
A sense of needing vigilance towards cults has long been a feature of Japanese society, not sure precisely how long.
Let's hope things don't veer into excess.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #638 on: August 01, 2022, 07:02:42 AM »

Well its arguably not a win if they go ahead with a state funeral anyway.
I would expect the Abe faction will insist, come hell or high water, that he get a state funeral. It *should* be a done deal, unless something changes in the LDP. But jaichind would know better than me.
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jaichind
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« Reply #639 on: August 01, 2022, 07:19:21 PM »

Well its arguably not a win if they go ahead with a state funeral anyway.

The state funeral for sure will go forward.  Abe's widow is against it but the decisive factor is the power of the LDP Abe faction.  There is no way that Kishida cancels the state funeral just below it polls underwater by a few percentage points.  To do so will upset the balance between the various LDP factions that Kishida has to manage above all else.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #640 on: August 01, 2022, 09:18:38 PM »

So Abe's murderer has effectively "won" then?

Very chilling for freedom of religion in Japan.
A sense of needing vigilance towards cults has long been a feature of Japanese society, not sure precisely how long.
Let's hope things don't veer into excess.

Have we forgotten the Aum Shinrikyo subway gassing already?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #641 on: August 01, 2022, 09:32:25 PM »

So Abe's murderer has effectively "won" then?

Very chilling for freedom of religion in Japan.
A sense of needing vigilance towards cults has long been a feature of Japanese society, not sure precisely how long.
Let's hope things don't veer into excess.

Have we forgotten the Aum Shinrikyo subway gassing already?
I imagine that that incident only reaffirmed this. Note that I'm not labelling it as unhealthy. Merely expressing the hope it doesn't veer into hysteria.
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PSOL
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« Reply #642 on: August 02, 2022, 10:50:55 PM »

So Abe's murderer has effectively "won" then?

Very chilling for freedom of religion in Japan.
A sense of needing vigilance towards cults has long been a feature of Japanese society, not sure precisely how long.
Let's hope things don't veer into excess.

Have we forgotten the Aum Shinrikyo subway gassing already?
I imagine that that incident only reaffirmed this. Note that I'm not labelling it as unhealthy. Merely expressing the hope it doesn't veer into hysteria.
The constant trend of religious bodies abusing people in Japan, either in or out of government, is enough proof that Japan has let these criminals enough leeway. There needs to be a general crackdown before they kill and torture any more people—which they do through government sponsorship or makeshift weaponry in their war against the Japanese people.
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jaichind
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« Reply #643 on: August 06, 2022, 05:25:56 AM »

As part of this Unification Church media feeding frenzy, a lot of the center-left media is focusing on the Unification Church's conservative position on marriage equity and LGBT issues.  I do not think that hits the mark.  For the LDP voter, the Unification Chruch position on these issues is a feature, not a bug.

I think RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is hitting where it hurts by saying that LDP links to Unification Church "it is "stealing" money "from the people living in this country" and sending it to Korea."

It is not just that Unification Church is a cult but it is a cult that has foreign links to ROK and most likely DPKR


I got to give PNHK credit for being the first to push the LDP-Unification Church narrative in the 2022 Upper House election.  They also pushed the LDP-Falun Gong narrative as well.  I wonder if or when Falun Gong will be under the media glare.
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jaichind
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« Reply #644 on: August 06, 2022, 05:29:42 AM »

TBS sent out a survey to all MPs asking them about their links to Unification Church.   78 said yes (60 LDP, 9 JRP, 5 CDP, 2 DPP, 1 KP, 1 Independent).

Only 58% of LDP MPs responded to the survey which is a big tell.

I like the 1 KP MP with links to Unification Church.  KP is already owned by the 創価学会(Soka Gakkai) cult so why is the KP MP getting involved with another cult?  I assume the KP MP was trying to claw some LDP votes for himself and figured Unification Church might be a route to get those LDP votes.




TBS list of MPs who admits to links to Unification Church

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jaichind
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« Reply #645 on: August 06, 2022, 05:31:50 AM »

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/08/2d9db8657279-urgent-japan-pm-kishida-says-cabinet-to-be-reshuffled-next-week.html

"Kishida says Unification Church ties to be checked in Cabinet revamp"

Given all the bad press from the Unification Church media feeding frenzy, Kishida will accelerate plans for a cabinet reshuffle.  It seems like this reshuffle will be used to "purge" those with Unification Church ties.
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jaichind
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« Reply #646 on: August 06, 2022, 05:35:27 AM »

I have to imagine the big winner out of this entire Unification Church affair has to be DIY.  The LDP narrative is that the LDP is the guardian of keeping Japan safe and protecting traditional Japanese values has taken a hit.  Any votes LDP loses will most likely be to DIY, perhaps JRP.

I think also SDP will most likely gain a bit.  The center-left media is focusing less on the foreign element of the Unification Church but more on their political activities against marriage equity, gender equity, and LGBT issues.    These issues being in the media spotlight most likely will drive some CDP votes to SDP. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #647 on: August 07, 2022, 07:18:54 AM »

Abe's brother 岸信夫(Kishi Nobuo) is out as Defense secretary due to poor health and partly because of Unification Church links.  There have been all sorts of speculation on the next generation of the Abe-Kishi dynasty.  Abe has no children and it seems Kishi's older son who was a reporter has already resigned to join his father as his personal secretary.  This is to pave the way for him to take over the dynasty next election.

Kishi having a different last name than Abe is complicated and has to do with Abe's father giving over Kishi over to his brother-in-law (son of former LDP PM Kishi) as an adopted son since he had no son of his own.
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jaichind
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« Reply #648 on: August 07, 2022, 07:21:46 AM »

https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/geino/309372

The Japanese mainstream media credibility has taken a hit from this entire Unification Church affair.  The mainstream media, especially NHK, had sought to tamper down the Unification Church links with Abe/LDP and how that motivated the assassination suspect.  It was only when the second-tier media (internet, tabloids) broke the story and started a media-feeding frenzy that NHK and the mainstream media reluctantly started to cover these stories.    PNHK is a winner from this since they can say "I told you so about NHK"
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jaichind
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« Reply #649 on: August 07, 2022, 05:32:49 PM »

JNN poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval   57.5 (-2.9)/39.3(+4.6)
Abe state funeral support/oppose 42/45
Investigate links between Unification Church and politics support/oppose 72/21
Political parties investigate their members' links to Unification Church necessary/not necessary 76/17
Politicians cut ties to Unification Church necessary/not necessary 77/15

Looks like the Unification Church controversy has hit the Kishida cabinet but not decisively.  He most likely has to act quickly to cut all LDP ties to Unification Chruch or he will get engulfed the growing fire.
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