Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

Polls for  沖縄(Okinawa) governor elections next weekend still have the Opposition grand alliance anti-base incumbent ahead of the pro-LDP-KP candidate and the pro-JRP candidate.

[jaichind]

New strategy for LDP on Unification Church issue.  LDP General Secretary 茂木敏充(Motegi Toshimitsu) wants to shift the discussion to JCP links to various extreme Leftist groups.  The main problem here is the LDP has to show these "extreme Leftist" groups have a foreign origin.

[Logical]

New strategy for LDP on Unification Church issue.  LDP General Secretary 茂木敏充(Motegi Toshimitsu) wants to shift the discussion to JCP links to various extreme Leftist groups.  The main problem here is the LDP has to show these "extreme Leftist" groups have a foreign origin.

Another problem is that these radical leftist organizations have been inactive for a long time. What's left of them are 80 year old grandpas way past their bomb throwing days.

[jaichind]

The cost of Abe's state funeral is out and it is around $11.6 million which is a lot more than what the government was saying it was going to cost  I suspect this will lead to another round of opposition protests against the state funeral.

[jaichind]

It seems some studio (with far left background) have been working around the clock to make a biographical movie on the life of Abe's assassin and it will come out on the day of Abe's state funeral.  It seems this move was made in secret for fear of interference from the Unification Church.  The movie is not meant to praise the assassin but to explain his motivations.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems some studio (with far left background) have been working around the clock to make a biographical movie on the life of Abe's assassin and it will come out on the day of Abe's state funeral.  It seems this move was made in secret for fear of interference from the Unification Church.  The movie is not meant to praise the assassin but to explain his motivations.

What is the likeliest day on which it would occur?

[jaichind]

It seems some studio (with far left background) have been working around the clock to make a biographical movie on the life of Abe's assassin and it will come out on the day of Abe's state funeral.  It seems this move was made in secret for fear of interference from the Unification Church.  The movie is not meant to praise the assassin but to explain his motivations.

What is the likeliest day on which it would occur?

My understanding is that it will be on Sept 27.  USA VP Harris it seems will attend for USA

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems some studio (with far left background) have been working around the clock to make a biographical movie on the life of Abe's assassin and it will come out on the day of Abe's state funeral.  It seems this move was made in secret for fear of interference from the Unification Church.  The movie is not meant to praise the assassin but to explain his motivations.

What is the likeliest day on which it would occur?

My understanding is that it will be on Sept 27.  USA VP Harris it seems will attend for USA

Ah.
Thanks.

[jaichind]

Voting for 沖縄(Okinawa) governor election over.  Anti-base incumbent called right away over LDP-KP and pro-JRP candidate.

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) governor election exit polls

Looks like around

Anti-base alliance   52%
LDP-KP                  38%
pro-JRP                  10%

[jaichind]

Frankly, as an incumbent running for re-election, the vote share of the Anti-base alliance governor is mediocre.  It just shows how polarizing the base issue is as well as anti-JCP sentiment is that JCP being part of the Anti-base alliance seems to be driving away potential LDP KP JRP DPP and DIY defectors that would normally defect to the incumbent in a situation like this.

[jaichind]

Local 沖縄(Okinawa) media exit poll breakdowns by party ID

Anti-base incumbent got some but not a lot of LDP and KP defectors.  It seems some of these defectors went to the pro-JRP candidate.    The JRP vote seems to be split 3 ways between the 3 candidates while there is significant DPP defection to the LDP-KP candidate.  DIY vote lean LDP-KP candidate.

[jaichind]

The result seems very similar to the 2014 沖縄(Okinawa) governor race where a pro-LDP anti-base former MLA and mayor of Naba defected to the opposition and ran as an anti-based opposition candidate defeated the pro-LDP-KP incumbent and the pro-JRP candidate (same pro-JRP candidate that is running in the 2022 election)

2014 沖縄(Okinawa) governor race

Anti-base   51.7%
LDP-KP      37.3% (incumbent)
pro-JRP       9.9%
DPJ rebel    1.1%

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) governor election (55% of the vote counted)

Anti-base alliance   50.6%
LDP-KP                  38.8%
pro-JRP                  10.7%

Mostly matches exit polls.  The oustanding vote lean anti-base cities so the Anti-base incumbent lead will grow somewhat from here.

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) governor election (almost all votes counted)

Anti-base alliance   50.8%
LDP-KP                  41.1%
pro-JRP                    8.0%

LDP-KP candidate outperformed the exit poll, especially vis-a-vis the pro-JRP candidate.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval average curve getting close to parity.  The Kishida cabinet was never that popular but it was able to count on low disapprovals.  That era might be coming to a close.

[jaichind]

沖縄(Okinawa) governor election map

The basic idea is that the South is more economically viable and does not need the subsidies from the Japanese central government and USA for having the base in 沖縄(Okinawa).  The North is more economically backward and would benefit from continuing and expanding the USA base presence and economic aid from the central government.

[Logical]

Latest NHK monthly poll shows how the Moonies and Abe's state funeral issue continue to drag the Kishida admin down.

Government Approval/disapproval: 40/40
Abe state funeral approve/disapprove: 32/57
Cabinet reshuffle approve/disapprove: 34/56
Government handling of the state funeral issue approve/disapprove: 15/76
LDP's response to the moonie issue approve/disappove: 22/65

Every age group is now against Abe's state funeral.

https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/shijiritsu/

[jaichind]

NHK Kishida approval/disapproval numbers.  Seems to match the generic average pretty well.

[jaichind]

The good news for LDP is that in terms of party support LDP and KP actually rose in this poll relative to August.  So it seems the hit is mostly on Kishida and not LDP. 

[CityofSinners]

It is just so weird to me that an ex-prime minister gets assasinated and people oppose a state funeral for him. And it becomes a major headache for the party of the murdered ex-prime minister.

Never would have imagined this outcome.

[jaichind]

Japanese internet points out that the only place in Southern 沖縄(Okinawa) that the LDP-KP governor candidate carried is 宜野湾市(Ginowan) which is also the place of the Unification Church headquarters in the prefecture.  Of course, the counterargument is that 宜野湾市(Ginowan) is the current location of the USA base and they will support LDP-KP to move the base to the North.  Since 宜野湾市(Ginowan) has a lot of Americans which I am sure Unification Church as an internationalist religion wants to try to recruit it does make sense for Unification Church to be headquartered here.

[jaichind]

It is just so weird to me that an ex-prime minister gets assasinated and people oppose a state funeral for him. And it becomes a major headache for the party of the murdered ex-prime minister.

Never would have imagined this outcome.

Well, I guess what took place is the assassination got the media to focus on LDP-Unification Church ties.  This is the way for LDP to lose both ways.  It reminds the Center-Left about Abe and LDP links to the Right-wing Unification Church but also reminds the pro-LDP Japanese nationalist Right about the Korean links to the Unification Church.

I think the MSM has been downplaying LDP-Unification Church ties for years mostly due to fears that could increase attacks on Zainichi Koreans but with the Abe assassination, it became a flood of coverage.

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20220914-DILUT45CMVMTZJPJ7VBSW67SXE/

CDP MP resigns from all CDP party posts because he exchanged business cards with a Unification Church affiliate about 5 or 6 years ago. 

I guess CDP want to go all out to attack LDP for Unification Church which means they must be 100% pure when it comes to Unification Church contacts.

[jaichind]

Latest Jiji poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval   32.3(-12)/40(+11.5)

Abe state funeral approval/disapproval  25.3(-5.2)/51.9(+4.6)

It seems as we get closer and closer to the Abe state funeral the damage on Kishida is getting bigger and bigger.