Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

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For the rump SDP (half of their parliamentary caucus and grassroots base defected to the CDP in early 2021) this is a do or die election. To qualify for political party subsidies you must have at least 5 MPs (they have 2) or win 2% of the nationwide PR vote in the last Lower or Upper House election. SDP won 2.09% in the 2019 UH election and 1.77% in the 2021 LH election. If they can't get above 2% in the national PR in this election then they can say goodbye to some 300 million Yen annually. Without the money, they would eventually be forced to merge with CDP or JCP.

Or they could just fizzle out. That and I highly doubt that they would merge with the JCP given historical separation and the JCP’s hierarchy and dislike for entryists or alliances with other smaller social democratic and socialist parties not apart of a grand coalition(not like there’s much of that, but still).

CDP already took a significant amount of the party’s local machinery and MP’s, so there is some doubt that the CDP would even accept it from their end.

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Wakie wakie jaichiii-San, desu no kawaii

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What are the various theories floating out there aside from the DPP cope and the official story?

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Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.

Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.

What did they do differently on the campaign?

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Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.

What did they do differently on the campaign?

They pretty much ran on the woke agenda, especially LGBT themes.  I thought it was a desperate move that will not work.  It seems it did.

Outside of being pro-gay, what else did they do?

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Amazing that the LDP-KP PR vote share is down to 47.7% which is only a bit above 2021 results.  Shows how badly they were going to get hit if the Abe assassination did not take place.

They were incredibly lucky everything went as planned.

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Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.

Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.

What did they do differently on the campaign?

Abandoned the old workers party image; went full rainbows, abortion, LGBT+ rights. Their party list is filled with activists instead of union representatives now.

What sort of abortion liberalization do they favour in a Japanese context?

Kind of sad to see this. Is JCP still more old school labor party in terms of personnel and rhetoric?

Yes, they still have the most avenues for cosplaying while accomplishing nothing with the geezers, although DPP or Renho (CDP) might be more your avenue.

Outside of my opposition to fake workers parties, going full rainbow is exactly how the "Old Left" won seats and made it to power.

A quick glance at PP and PNHK PR vote by prefecture seem to indicate that PNHK is not correlated by region but PP is stronger in urban areas and LDP strongholds.

What are the regional profiles of a few of their best results?

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Does Komeito do well among Burakamin?

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1) What parties are you counting as “anti-system” left and what are their profiles

2) which areas of Japan are they strong in

3) what happened in 2016 that led to such a discrepancy of them cracking over 1%

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So Abe's murderer has effectively "won" then?

Very chilling for freedom of religion in Japan.

A sense of needing vigilance towards cults has long been a feature of Japanese society, not sure precisely how long.
Let's hope things don't veer into excess.

Have we forgotten the Aum Shinrikyo subway gassing already?

I imagine that that incident only reaffirmed this. Note that I'm not labelling it as unhealthy. Merely expressing the hope it doesn't veer into hysteria.

The constant trend of religious bodies abusing people in Japan, either in or out of government, is enough proof that Japan has let these criminals enough leeway. There needs to be a general crackdown before they kill and torture any more people—which they do through government sponsorship or makeshift weaponry in their war against the Japanese people.

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The NHK obsessed party and Sanseito are at 10% according to recent polling. CDP and JCP at 8 and 5% in the PR vote, to the benefit of Reiwa and SDP at 7% and 3% respectively.

The traditional parties are really taking a beating.