Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[jaichind]

Asahi exit polls on PR vote by age group for 18-19 and 20-29.  Note PP is at 7.2 and 6.3 here.  Also, the LDP and KP numbers are complete junk.  I would subtract 5% from LDP and add it to KP to get the real result.

[jaichind]

In the afterglow of its victory approval of the Kishida cabinet and LDP surges. But that is temporary and will subside.  What LDP should find concerning is that the chatter on Japanese social media is not "we must fufill Abe's legacy and ideals" but "wait I did not know how close the LDP is connected to this foreign cult."   And like I said this talk of cults can only be bad news for KP.  It will be ironic if the net impact of the assassination of Abe ends up being negative for LDP-KP on the medium run. 

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/20220713-OYT1T50136/

Yomiuri reports that the Abe assassination suspect's mother sold off assets worth $1 million and donated it to Unification Church and went bankrupt along the way.  Wow.  It seems this part of the suspect's story is true.

[jaichind]

A look at the PR vote share map to district vote yields the following patterns which are similar to the past patterns in Upper House elections recently

1) Incumbency counts for a lot.   Incumbents will get more votes than their PR vote shares would imply. 
2) LDP-KP vote transfers.  When LDP and KP run at the same time KP is very effective in getting LDP PR voters to come over to vote for KP.  On the flip side when KP is not running a candidate there are some defections by KP PR voters to vote for the opposition.  The level of defection is usually a function of relative incumbency between the LDP candidate and the opposition candidates.
3) The JRP vote.  When JRP runs an incumbent the JRP tends to get the JPR vote.  If not some JRP PR vote tends to defect to non-LDP non-JCP opposition, especially ones that are incumbents.   If a JRP candidate is not running if anything they tend to vote more for the non-LDP non-JCP than for the LDP candidate with the balance dictated by the relative levels of incumbency between the LDP and the opposition candidate.
4) JRP-DPP vote transfers.  As mentioned before the JRP-DPP alliance in 京都(Kyoto) and 静岡(Shizuoka) were flops with their respective PR votes not being transferred in any large amounts to each other.  They tend to flow to non-LDP non-JCP incumbents.
5) Impact of Abe assassination.  I would have thought that the impact of Abe's assassination would be to decrease the level of KP defection from LDP as well as increase the level of JRP PR voting for LDP.  It seems neither really took place.  What give the LDP such a solid victory was that the LDP-KP PR vote did go down a bit relative to 2016/2019 but the Center-Left lost even more ground with PP and PNHK being net gainers.  It also seems PP PNHK PR voters mostly voted for their party's district candidates so net net the Center-Left district vote fell relative to the LDP district vote even though both fell.  Had what I expected with respect to KP PR and JRP PR vote taken place then the scale of the district vote victory for the LDP would have been even greater and LDP would have picked up 沖縄(Okinawa) and had a victory by a larger margin in 北海道(Hokkaido) like I expected.

[jaichind]

Japanese media outlets are also saying that the Abe assassination suspect got his "info" that Abe is linked to the Unification Church based on what he heard from PNHK's accusations that Abe/LDP are linked to foreign cults like Unification Church and Falun Gong.    The suspect also says that it is too hard to assassinate the head of the Unification Church in Japan so he went after Abe.  Amazing at the perception that it is easier to assassinate the former PM of Japan (and the leader of the largest faction of the ruling party) than to assassinate the head of the Unification Church of Japan.  I guess the logic is that the head of the Unification Church of Japan gets death threats all the time (?) while there has been very political violence in Japan.

[jaichind]

PP's official English name is Do It Yourself Party and want to go by the acronym of DIY which is what I will use going forward.

[jaichind]

Japan to hold a state funeral for Abe.  My understanding is tha Abe's widow is opposed to this but Abe's faction is pushing hard for this.   I guess politics won out. 

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll on what is the top issue based on which PR party votes.

Only 4.7% had it as Constitutional revision and for LDP voters it was 3.2%.  Parties that oppose Constitutional revision CDP (6.2%), JCP (14.9%), and SDP (21.2%) have much higher rates putting that as their top issue.

[jaichind]

The number of JCP party members and number of subscribers to the JCP magazine "Red Flag." 

The number of JCP party members was around 90K in 1961 and is now 270K after peaking at 500K in 1990.  The number of subscribers to the  JCP magazine "Red Flag" was around 300K in 1961 and is now around 1 million after peaking at 3.55 million in 1980

[jaichind]

I tried to work out what would have taken place on the PR vote had the Abe assassination not taken place.  The result was
 
           Vote      Seat
LDP    34.4        18
KP      11.7         6
PP        3.3         1
PNHK   2.4          1
JRP     14.8         8
DPP      6.0         3
CDP    12.8         7
RS       4.4          2
SDP     2.4          1
JCP      6.8          3

Without the assassination, turnout would have been lower.  That would have helped KP and JCP and to some extent LDP and CDP (for having an older profile) and hurt JRP RS and DPP (which as a more youthful profile.)  My guesstimate

LDP    +.1
KP      +.2
JRP     -.3
DPP     -.1
CDP    +.1
RS      -.2
JCP     +.2

Then the assassination itself must have shifted JRP CDP KP and DPP votes for LDP.  My guesstimate would be

LDP   -2.2
KP     +.6
JRP    +.8
DPP   +.2
CDP   +.6

Applying both and then computing seats we get

           Vote      Seat
LDP    32.3        18
KP      12.5         6
PP        3.3         1
PNHK   2.4          1
JRP     15.3         8
DPP      6.1         3
CDP    13.5         7
RS       4.2          2
SDP     2.4          1
JCP      7.0          3

This means that the number of PR seats does not change !!!  The main reason is that in the real results the LDP was at the upper edge of 18 PR seats and under this non-assassination scenario the LDP would be at the bottom of 18 seats.   Under my calculated results the KP is very close to getting the 7th seat at the expense of LDP and it could easily have taken place if my numbers are different by a bit.

[jaichind]

The distribution of the KP PR vote is interesting.

In 2019 it was

total PR vote: 13.05%   Personal: 4.50%    Party: 8.56%

With the personal vote almost all going to the top 7 candidates.  The idea is the 4.50% is the core of cores of the KP vote and they were directed on who to vote for to show off the power of the KP that they targeted 7 seats and the vote share distribution of the personal vote showed off the organizational power of KP to a) know how many votes they will get overall and b) to organize their core vote exactly as they wish.

In 2022 it  is

total PR vote: 11.66%   Personal: 4.02%    Party: 7.63%

The personal vote was distributed with almost all votes for the top 6 candidates which is how many seats KP won

1 437,228 (incumbent) (elected)
2 415,178 (incumbent) (elected)
3 351,413 (incumbent) (elected)
4 349,359 (incumbent) (elected)
5 269,048 (incumbent) (elected)
6 268,403                    (elected)
7    9,695  (incumbent)
8    9,640
9    9,058
10  5,417
11  2,786
12  1,717
13  1,212
14     797
15     738
16     730
17     426

It seems at the beginning of the campaign KP planned on winning 7 seats with a newcomer plus 6 incumbents.  After Abe's assassination KP high command concluded that some of their marginal PR votes will go to LDP pushing them down to 6 seats.  So the orders went out within hours to have their core voters shift around who they vote for, abandoning one of their incumbents, and voting for the top 6 candidates instead of their top 7.    All this was done within the 1-2 days before the Abe assassination and the election.  

The KP vote might be in slow decline but once again they showed their ability to judge how many votes they will get with high precision and showed their ability to control their core vote.  Their organizational abilities are truly impressive.

[jaichind]

A scan of the turnout by different prefectures seems to indicate that the falloff in turnout is much greater in rural areas.  The turnout in the Greater Tokyo area is almost the same as in the 2021 Lower House elections.  But turnout in rural areas fell a lot relative to 2021.  The pattern is quite clear.  If the rural prefecture does not have a competitive election then turnout is in the mid-40s.  In the few rural prefectures where the district race is competitive then turnout is in the low 50s.  Suburban turnout is somewhere in between, falling from 2021 levels but not as much as rural areas.   

 The assassination of Abe did not seem to really push up turnout in rural areas in any dramatic way.  Even in Abe's own home and very rural prefecture 山口(Yamaguchi) turnout fell relative to 2021 and was barely higher than in 2019.  It seems in rural Japan there is this view that neither LDP nor CDP will really solve their problems so they do not turn out.  And the ones that do, especially in more conservative prefectures some came out to vote for DIY and other anti-system far-right parties.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/furuyatsunehira/20220711-00305127

An interesting article on the nature of the DIY vote.  It points out that

a) An analysis of the DIY vote indicates that part of it is the old Far right vote but it only forms part of the DIY coalition.  It points out that LDP and JRP have a few PR candidates that are far right and if you add up their personal vote and the DIY vote it vastly exceeds the traditional far-right vote in Japan.

b) It seems that DIY really go going in the aftermath of the 2020 USA election.  A lot of far-right activists there are convinced that Trump won the 2020 election and continued their organized protests and it became a core of the DIY cadre.  This sort of fits my narrative that the DIY position of being anti-Western is more about anti-woke than anti-Western since they are fairly strong in support of Trump.

c) It seems what pushed up the DIY vote share beyond its limited traditional far-right base is around the topic of cultural purity and physical purity.  DIY also has a strong organic farming component to it.  It seems there is a strong link between the goal of keeping Japanese culture pure from Western influence and keeping Japanese food from being contaminated by Western farming techniques.  DIY's anti-Vax position is also linked to this topic of purity in terms of keeping the body pure from containments like the COVID-19 vaccine.   DIY also focused on homeschooling as a way to raise the next generation with proper traditional and pure Japanese cultural values.  Along with it DIY also wants to keep the economic system pure from containments like Western financial systems.

I can see why this set of policies can attract rural support while in urban areas it is more the anti-system aspects DIY that gets voters to vote DIY.

[jaichind]

Was looking through various historical election data and found that in 4- the member Lower House 群馬(Gunma) 3rd district in the elections

1963 1967 1969 1972 1976 1979 1980 1983 1986

The 3 LDP candidates and winners of all of them were

福田赳夫(Fukuda Takeo) - PM 1976-1978
中曽根康弘(Nakasone Yasuhiro) PM 1982-1987
小渕恵三(Obuchi Keizō) PM 1998-2000

The  Lower House 群馬(Gunma) 3rd district which is Southern 群馬(Gunma) was clearly the district of PMs.

[omar04]

Was looking through various historical election data and found that in 4- the member Lower House 群馬(Gunma) 3rd district in the elections

1963 1967 1969 1972 1976 1979 1980 1983 1986

The 3 LDP candidates and winners of all of them were

福田赳夫(Fukuda Takeo) - PM 1976-1978
中曽根康弘(Nakasone Yasuhiro) PM 1982-1987
小渕恵三(Obuchi Keizō) PM 1998-2000

The  Lower House 群馬(Gunma) 3rd district which is Southern 群馬(Gunma) was clearly the district of PMs.

The 5th district appears to be its successor and could have produced another PM in Yuko Obuchi. However, she resigned from her ministry after a political funds misuse scandal.

https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-politics-princess/japans-obuchi-political-princess-could-be-first-female-pm-idINL3N0RV1B220141002

https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-politics-resignation/in-blow-to-abe-japan-trade-minister-to-resign-over-funds-scandal-media-idINKCN0I62B720141018

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll of party support (not PR) (vs June)

LDP     34 (--)
KP        4 (-2)
DIY       4            (Others was 3 but are now 1 so you figure in June, 2 was for DIY)
PNHK    1 (-1)
JCP      15 (+2)
DPP       3 (--)
CDP       8 (+1)
SDP       1 (--)
RS         5 (+2)
JCP        3 (-3)

Now that the election is over KP supporters are going back to LDP to hide out.  So net-net LDP loses some ground to JRP and DIY while RS takes support from JCP.    In both the Right and Left camps it is the more youth-centric parties that are gaining ground from the elder-centric parties relative to June.  No bump for LDP for the election win.

[jaichind]

NHK poll

Did Abe's assassination have an impact on your vote
a) Yes   12%
b) No    58%
c) Voted before the assassination 25% (this cannot be right so most of this is de facto No)

Should Abe get a state funeral
a) Yes   49%
b) No    38%

[jaichind]

2022 PR maps

LDP vote


LDP change from 2019 - some gains in rural areas - most likely from KP




JRP vote.  JRP is strong in urban areas and rural areas the further away it is from Osaka the worse JRP does


JRP change from 2019.  鈴木宗男(Suzuki Muneo) running for JRP in 2019 explains the 2022 decline in  北海道(Hokkaido)




CDP vote - Stronger in North, weaker in South


CDP change from 2019 - big dropoff in Greater Tokyo - mostly to JRP and DPP



KP vote  - KP is negatively correlated with CDP - weak in North and strong in South - the exact opposite of CDP


KP change from 2019 - dropoff are in rural areas which I suspect are to LDP due to Abe's assassination impact



DPP vote


DPP change from 2019 - growth in urban areas.  DPP is getting more urban and youth heavy since 2019




JCP vote - strong in urban areas and rural North.  Very weak in South except for a couple of historic JCP prefectures


JCP change from 2019 - losses across the board




RS vote - strong in the Greater Tokyo area


RS change from 2019 - gains in rural areas - mostly from JCP and CDP

[jaichind]

DIY vote


DIY is stronger in rural conservative LDP stronghold prefectures and in some urban areas.  But the strongest prefecture for DIY is 沖縄(Okinawa).  The reason seems to the regionalist vote can only choose center-left parties since Right parties tend to be pro-Tokyo on the base issue.  For a while, a few cycles ago JRP took a neutral position on the base issue and was able to pull in the conservative regionalist vote.  JRP in the last few cycles has de facto taken on a pro-LDP position here so the conservative regionalist vote has found an outlet in DIY.
 

[jaichind]

Out of the 32 1- member districts if you look at 2016 2019 2022 results you can group them by pro-opposition(LDP lost all 3 times), battleground (LDP have won and lost), and pro-LDP (LDP won all 3 times) you get

Pro-Opposition(3):
山形(Yamagata)
長野(Nagano)
沖縄(Okinawa)

Battleground(11):
青森(Aomori)
岩手(Iwate)
宮城(Miyagi)
秋田(Akita)
福島(Fukushima)
山梨(Yamanashi)
新潟(Niigata)
三重(Mie)
滋賀(Shiga)
愛媛(Ehime)
大分(Ōita)

pro-LDP(18)
Rest

A lot of the battleground prefectures are only battleground because of a strong pro-opposition personality candidate that can eat into the LDP vote and in a generic vote would have LDP win easily. So all in all in a neutral election the LDP should win at least half of the battleground prefectures.

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220721/p2g/00m/0na/065000c

"Opposition launches probe into lawmakers' links to Unification Church"

Now JCP wants to investigate links between Unification Church and LDP

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220721/p2g/00m/0na/065000c

"Opposition launches probe into lawmakers' links to Unification Church"

Now JCP wants to investigate links between Unification Church and LDP

Will this actually happen?

[jaichind]

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20220721/p2g/00m/0na/065000c

"Opposition launches probe into lawmakers' links to Unification Church"

Now JCP wants to investigate links between Unification Church and LDP

Will this actually happen?

I doubt it.  JCP is just trying to cash in on this topic.  This news is more indicative that the aftershocks of the Abe assignation will most likely work against the LDP in the medium-long run.  Despite MSM not talking about it much the internet chatter continues to be very heavy on LDP connections with Unification Church.  There are also lists of a few CDP MPs that have connections with the Unification Church.  The LDP-Unification Church hurts LDP because it goes against the LDP as the defender of the Japanese nationalist interest image.   The Unification Church has connections with DPRK which is especially bad for the LDP narrative.  The LDP has connections with Falun Gong as well, or so PNHK claims, but at least one can say that Falun Gong is 100% anti-PRC so the foreign element there is not as strong.

[jaichind]

FNN poll on the support of Abe state funeral (the wording makes it clear that the entire cost will be born by the state):  For/Against 50.1/46.9 which is a lot more negative than other polls due to wording as well as the continued discussions of the role of LDP/Abe and connections to Unification Church.

[jaichind]

Last few days it has been all Unification Church 24/7 as more and more politicians come clean on their links with Unification Church. It is mostly LDP but some JRP politicians are coming out of the closet.  Most of them say " a attended a couple of events and some Unification Church members volunteered for my campaign but I did not know they did it because the Unification Church told them to"

All this shows that Japan's strict campaign finance and spending laws just push politicians to turn to organizations like Unification Church to get their message out and do GOTV.