Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 22226 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #750 on: September 23, 2022, 06:10:44 AM »

There has been a surge of news books (and republished old books) and magazine specials on Unification Church

This one has the title "The corruption of the LDP by Unification Church"


It seems Unification Church is turning into Masons-Illuminati-Trilateral Commission
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jaichind
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« Reply #751 on: September 27, 2022, 03:25:26 AM »

Abe's state funeral came and gone.  From the LDP point of view hopefully, this will mean the media frenzy over Unification Church will end.  Most likely note.
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jaichind
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« Reply #752 on: September 27, 2022, 04:51:46 PM »

There are rumors that Kishida might be forced to call a snap Lowr House election to regain political momentum. There are fears from within the LDP that a snap election is the only way to avoid a slow death by one thousand cuts with this endless discussion on Unification Church in the media. 
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #753 on: September 27, 2022, 04:58:42 PM »

There are rumors that Kishida might be forced to call a snap Lowr House election to regain political momentum. There are fears from within the LDP that a snap election is the only way to avoid a slow death by one thousand cuts with this endless discussion on Unification Church in the media. 
Would the election be fought on the same boundaries as the 2021 election?
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jaichind
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« Reply #754 on: September 28, 2022, 05:03:15 AM »

There are rumors that Kishida might be forced to call a snap Lowr House election to regain political momentum. There are fears from within the LDP that a snap election is the only way to avoid a slow death by one thousand cuts with this endless discussion on Unification Church in the media. 
Would the election be fought on the same boundaries as the 2021 election?

I think the new map.  I am not sure but I think the new maps have been passed already.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #755 on: September 28, 2022, 05:22:58 AM »

There are rumors that Kishida might be forced to call a snap Lowr House election to regain political momentum. There are fears from within the LDP that a snap election is the only way to avoid a slow death by one thousand cuts with this endless discussion on Unification Church in the media. 
Would the election be fought on the same boundaries as the 2021 election?

I think the new map.  I am not sure but I think the new maps have been passed already.
Huh.
So what would a snap Lower House election even look like? What kind of atmosphere could be expected?
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jaichind
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« Reply #756 on: September 28, 2022, 05:50:59 AM »


Huh.
So what would a snap Lower House election even look like? What kind of atmosphere could be expected?

I would have no idea.  It would depend on the theme where Kishida justifies going for an early election.  There are two reasons why rumors of early elections come out
a) PM's position is such that early election is needed (PM authority in trouble OR high poll numbers means that perhaps PM should take advantage of it) and rumors are to get a sense of how it will be received
OR
b) PM is facing discipline issues within the LDP so rumors of early elections are needed to restore discipline
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #757 on: September 28, 2022, 06:02:07 AM »


Huh.
So what would a snap Lower House election even look like? What kind of atmosphere could be expected?

I would have no idea.  It would depend on the theme where Kishida justifies going for an early election.  There are two reasons why rumors of early elections come out
a) PM's position is such that early election is needed (PM authority in trouble OR high poll numbers means that perhaps PM should take advantage of it) and rumors are to get a sense of how it will be received
OR
b) PM is facing discipline issues within the LDP so rumors of early elections are needed to restore discipline
The closest analogy I could think of in regards to an early election is 2005. But that was almost two years after the most recent election.
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Mike88
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« Reply #758 on: September 28, 2022, 06:15:54 AM »

Why not just elect a new party leader? A new leader that is clean from the whole Church scandal. The new leader could then have a few months in office, and then call a snap election in late 2023 or so.
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jaichind
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« Reply #759 on: September 28, 2022, 06:30:17 AM »

Why not just elect a new party leader? A new leader that is clean from the whole Church scandal. The new leader could then have a few months in office, and then call a snap election in late 2023 or so.

Kishida himself has little to no Unification Church connections.  The problem is that too many LDP MPs do have connections if you define connections, as the opposition and media like to, as being in the same room as someone from Unification Church for more than 10 minutes.

So a new leader would have the same problem.  What is needed is a distraction.  Several ICBMs from DPKR flying over Japan as part of some test would do nicely for Kishida.
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jaichind
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« Reply #760 on: September 28, 2022, 06:45:27 AM »


The closest analogy I could think of in regards to an early election is 2005. But that was almost two years after the most recent election.

2005 was called due to the loss of authority of Koizumi due to Postal Reform rebels shooting down his Postal Reform bill

2014 was Abe taking advantage of poll lead

2017 was Abe losing authority internally due to scandals and the need to change the narrative as well as having an election while the opposition was going through reorganization
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #761 on: September 28, 2022, 07:01:01 AM »


The closest analogy I could think of in regards to an early election is 2005. But that was almost two years after the most recent election.

2005 was called due to the loss of authority of Koizumi due to Postal Reform rebels shooting down his Postal Reform bill

2014 was Abe taking advantage of poll lead

2017 was Abe losing authority internally due to scandals and the need to change the narrative as well as having an election while the opposition was going through reorganization
I guess I wouldn't be surprised to see an election in late 2022/early 2023.
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jaichind
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« Reply #762 on: September 29, 2022, 04:52:15 AM »

As mentioned before, the whole Unification Church business seems to have united the opposition parties.  It seems opposition party strategy meetings which include all mainstream opposition (CDP DPP JRP JCP RS SDP) are now a common occurrence.



So the Unification Church issue has gotten the JRP and JCP to attend meetings with each other on a recurring basis. 

There are talks of CDP-JRP tactical alliances in the next election.  It seems non-Osaka parts of JRP seem to be for some sort of tactical alliance with CDP next election while the Osaka parts of JRP are adamant that their long goal should still be to displace CDP as the main non-LDP opposition party area against any such deals.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #763 on: September 29, 2022, 08:26:15 AM »

As mentioned before, the whole Unification Church business seems to have united the opposition parties.  It seems opposition party strategy meetings which include all mainstream opposition (CDP DPP JRP JCP RS SDP) are now a common occurrence.



So the Unification Church issue has gotten the JRP and JCP to attend meetings with each other on a recurring basis. 

There are talks of CDP-JRP tactical alliances in the next election.  It seems non-Osaka parts of JRP seem to be for some sort of tactical alliance with CDP next election while the Osaka parts of JRP are adamant that their long goal should still be to displace CDP as the main non-LDP opposition party area against any such deals.
The 2000s called, they want their suddenly effective Japanese opposition back.
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jaichind
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« Reply #764 on: October 01, 2022, 10:28:44 AM »

It seems 塩谷立(Shionoya Ryū) is most likely to become the leader of the old Abe faction.  He seems to be the compromise mostly because of his seniority and age (72) which makes it very likely that he will not last that long and all the other contenders and live to fight another day.

He also lost his district in the 2021 election and was only elected MP on the PR slate which also lessens his authority.  So if he is appointed leader of the Abe faction it will become the Shionoya faction although it seems not for very long.

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jaichind
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« Reply #765 on: October 02, 2022, 05:31:29 AM »

At a seemingly pro-LDP store, Kishdia cookies are being sold along with a book about Kishida.  The price of each cookie is more than $2 which is pretty steep.
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jaichind
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« Reply #766 on: October 02, 2022, 05:37:41 AM »

TBS continues its offensive against Unification Church.  They have yet another one-hour special about Unification Church.  This time they focus on one broken family that they claim was destroyed by Unification Church.

It focused on a family where this man's wife became obsessed with giving money to the church, became violent towards her husband, and was negligent to her son. The son eventually committed suicide by self-immolation.


The mother was absent from family life, taking long trips to Korea while her son struggled. When he dropped out of junior high school, she blamed an evil spirit that haunted their family's land. She sold it and donated the money to the church.


It then followed the man where he attempts to meet with Church officials to seek the return of his family's money. He pleads with them to either allow him to enter their building or come out and talk, but they refuse.


Then they go over Unification Church school material.  Sexual sins are described as worse than murder and robbery. Women who wear mini skirts, earrings, lipstick, or eyeshadow are helping Satan. No dating: The church will pick your spouse for you.

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jaichind
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« Reply #767 on: October 02, 2022, 08:55:48 AM »

Exciting by-election race for mayor 品川区(Shinagawa City) in Tokyo.  With 90% of the vote counted it is a 3-way tie

pro-LDP      23.0%
pro-CDP      23.0%
TPFA rebel   23.0%
LDP rebel    16.9%
pro-JRP         7.0%
pro-JCP         7.0%
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jaichind
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« Reply #768 on: October 02, 2022, 09:21:31 AM »

Final mayor by-election results of 品川区(Shinagawa City)

TPFA rebel   24.48%
pro-LDP      23.20%
pro-CDP      21.75%
LDP rebel    16.37%
JCP               7.30%
JRP               6.90%

The 2021 assembly election results in this city by party are

TPFA          29.73% (a TPFA can and TPFA rebel, same rebel that won mayor by-election)
LDP           24.64% (2 LDP candidates)
KP             16.37%
JCP            14.51%
CDP           14.18% (Rengo background)

It seems part of the TPFA vote went to JRP, some JCP voters tactically voted pro-CDP while the KP vote mostly went to support the 2 LDP candidates (pro-LDP and LDP rebel).

All things equal this by-election mostly matched the 2021 assembly election results but with lower turnout which I guess is a setback for LDP to have such a result with lower turnout.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #769 on: October 02, 2022, 07:12:20 PM »

TBS continues its offensive against Unification Church.  They have yet another one-hour special about Unification Church.  This time they focus on one broken family that they claim was destroyed by Unification Church.

It focused on a family where this man's wife became obsessed with giving money to the church, became violent towards her husband, and was negligent to her son. The son eventually committed suicide by self-immolation.


The mother was absent from family life, taking long trips to Korea while her son struggled. When he dropped out of junior high school, she blamed an evil spirit that haunted their family's land. She sold it and donated the money to the church.


It then followed the man where he attempts to meet with Church officials to seek the return of his family's money. He pleads with them to either allow him to enter their building or come out and talk, but they refuse.


Then they go over Unification Church school material.  Sexual sins are described as worse than murder and robbery. Women who wear mini skirts, earrings, lipstick, or eyeshadow are helping Satan. No dating: The church will pick your spouse for you.


So uh. With all this fracas surrounding the church. What is stopping them from still working on campaigns? Only them not identifying themselves as members of said church?
Because this latest Japanese media panic is certainly not helping their reputation.
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jaichind
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« Reply #770 on: October 03, 2022, 05:44:21 PM »

Why not just elect a new party leader? A new leader that is clean from the whole Church scandal. The new leader could then have a few months in office, and then call a snap election in late 2023 or so.

Kishida himself has little to no Unification Church connections.  The problem is that too many LDP MPs do have connections if you define connections, as the opposition and media like to, as being in the same room as someone from Unification Church for more than 10 minutes.

So a new leader would have the same problem.  What is needed is a distraction.  Several ICBMs from DPKR flying over Japan as part of some test would do nicely for Kishida.

Bloomberg: The Japanese government warns residents in some remote islands that are part of Tokyo as well as Hokkaido and Aomori prefectures to take shelter from a missile fired from North Korea.

Just in time for Kishida
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jaichind
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« Reply #771 on: October 07, 2022, 10:57:36 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2022, 11:05:42 AM by jaichind »

A former Unification Church member appeared at the FCCJ press conference to recount her experience there.  It seems the Unification Church tried to disrupt the press conference with a message from her parents who are still with Unification Church saying that she is mentally ill.  This attempt seems to have backfired on them.  Major Japanese media outlets are airing reports about it, and it's just another PR disaster for Unification Church.

It seems the Unification Church is an incompetent version of the Scientologists with very similar tactics but much worse execution.
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jaichind
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« Reply #772 on: October 07, 2022, 10:58:53 AM »

Most opposition MP questioning of LDP ministers in the Diet on affairs of state seems to have come to a stop.  All opposition MP questions of LDP ministers are now all about that minister's links to Unification Church and said minister trying to dodge the questions.
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jaichind
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« Reply #773 on: October 09, 2022, 05:40:19 AM »

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval seems to be holding steady at a low but not disastrous level since the Abe state funeral.  Some sign of hope that perhaps with time he can come out of this Unification Church storm.
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jaichind
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« Reply #774 on: October 09, 2022, 06:47:11 AM »

Japan's Health Ministry still says you should wear masks outdoors when talking to someone


Kishida not wearing masks when talking to someone 


Sigh.  When are they going to get rid of this mask stupidity and move on?
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