India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec
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Author Topic: India 2022 assembly elections Feb/Mar and Nov/Dec  (Read 17284 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #675 on: September 22, 2022, 03:27:56 AM »

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/tharoor-versus-gehlot-likely-for-cong-prez-poll-433361

"Shashi Tharoor versus Ashok Gehlot likely for Congress president poll"

It seems it will be Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot vs Kerala MP Shashi Tharoor for the race for INC Prez.

Shashi Tharoor appeals to urban English-speaking liberal elites while Ashok Gehlot will appeal to the Hindi belt grassroots.  It is clear that the Gandhi clan wants Ashok Gehlot to win but for Shashi Tharoor to run as a foil to show "democracy" in INC.

Has killing his wife not ended Shashi Tharoor's political career?

Yeah that whole episode was weird.  On the other hand he was cleared of all charges last year.
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jaichind
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« Reply #676 on: September 22, 2022, 05:09:15 AM »

Still no date for the critical 2022 Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation elections which were supposed to take place in Sept or Oct after delimitation.  It looks like it taking place in Oct is unlikely.

Municipal Corporation elections being delayed for large megacities is a trend in India.  The Greater Bengaluru Municipal Corporation election in Karnataka was supposed to be taken place in 2020 but it kept on being delayed over delimitation.  The same thing for the Delhi Municipal Corporation election which was supposed to be in May but it seems it will drag out forever to even decide on a date for the election.

What is really going on is that cities like Mumbai and Bengaluru are cash cows for politicians.  So the question is who gets the loot?  If the  Municipal Corporation is active then they get to make a lot of decisions with respect to land allocation and distribution which is where the money is.  But if municipal corporations are inactive then the state government is in de facto control.  This means rural MLAs that dominate the state assembly can get in on the cash.  This creates an incentive to delay these elections by the rural MLAs that dominate the state assembly.
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jaichind
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« Reply #677 on: September 23, 2022, 06:29:09 AM »

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/will-certainly-contest-for-congress-presidents-post-says-ashok-gehlot-434560

"Non-Gandhi Congress chief it'll be; Rahul tells Ashok Gehlot no Gandhi will run"

INC Rajasthan CM  Ashok Gehlot will run as INC Prez after Rahul Gandhi makes it clear to  Ashok Gehlot that he will not run.

This is suboptimal but for INC to make the best of it this should mean Ashok Gehlot should stop down as Rajasthan CM after he wins the INC Prez election so he can work as a full-time INC Prez.  This will pave the way for Sachin Pilot to be CM and lead a potentially united INC into the 2023  Rajasthan assembly elections.  INC will for sure lose in  Rajasthan in 2023 but can potentially avoid a landslide defeat like in 2003 and 2013 and keep it close as BJP did in 2008 and 2018.  Sachin Pilot could then potentially lead INC to victory in 2028 in Rajasthan. Everything now depends on Ashok Gehlot playing a role to reunify the Rajasthan INC between Ashok Gehlot and  Sachin Pilot factions.  If  Ashok Gehlot insists on staying on as Rajasthan CM while being INC Prez it will be a disaster for INC.
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jaichind
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« Reply #678 on: September 24, 2022, 02:58:06 PM »

With MP assembly elections a year away the freebies are getting started.  The BJP government announced that all high school seniors that score about 75% on their end-of-year exams (it seems there will be around 92K of them) will get a free laptop from the state government.  This will not cost that much (most likely around $30 million) but I am sure this is the start of the freebies as the election gets closer.
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jaichind
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« Reply #679 on: September 25, 2022, 12:27:32 PM »

https://www.onmanorama.com/news/india/2022/09/25/sachin-pilot-likely-to-become-rajasthan-cm.html

"Sachin Pilot to become Rajasthan CM"

It seems that the Gandhi clan made to call to promote Sachin Pilot to CM and ask Ashok Gehlot to step down to run for INC Prez.  It seems that the INC caucus in Rajasthan has split 90-20 into  Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot factions with the Ashok Gehlot faction threatening to resign.

It seems the Gandhis are calling both Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot to come to Delhi to work something out of the crisis.  It seems the Gandhi clan will fumble in Rajasthan just like they did in Punjab leading to a massive landslide defeat in the next assembly election.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #680 on: September 25, 2022, 12:39:14 PM »

Are there any sites that have detailed Indian Election maps(Both State and Federal elections)
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jaichind
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« Reply #681 on: September 26, 2022, 06:10:58 AM »

Given the current situation in Rajasthan INC high command might have to back off from their ideal of installing Sachin Pilotí as CM.   With Sachin Pilotís faction being so small as not even being able to pull down the government the most likely outcome is for Sachin Pilot and his faction joining the BJP and at least get a position of being #2 or #3 in the Rajasthan BJP or given a plum role in the Central government. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #682 on: September 26, 2022, 05:14:21 PM »

Are there any sites that have detailed Indian Election maps(Both State and Federal elections)

https://www.mapsofindia.com/election/

Is really the only one I know and it is not that good
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jaichind
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« Reply #683 on: September 27, 2022, 05:49:08 AM »

Ashok Gehlot says his cellphone had no network coverage during revolt of pro-Gohlot MLAs so he could not manage the situation.  A funny way of having it both ways of being ultra loyal to the Gandhi clan and still get his way when his needs conflict with the Gandhi clan. 
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« Reply #684 on: September 27, 2022, 10:57:25 AM »

Given the current situation in Rajasthan INC high command might have to back off from their ideal of installing Sachin Pilotí as CM.   With Sachin Pilotís faction being so small as not even being able to pull down the government the most likely outcome is for Sachin Pilot and his faction joining the BJP and at least get a position of being #2 or #3 in the Rajasthan BJP or given a plum role in the Central government. 

Funny to imagine Pilot joining BJP given his family.
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jaichind
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« Reply #685 on: September 27, 2022, 06:41:44 PM »

What Ashok Gehlot has in mind is to run for INC Prez, win and then install someone from his faction as the new Rajasthan CM so he has to do something to stop Sachin Pilot from being CM right now before the INC Prez election.  The way the Gandhi clan can checkmate Ashok Gehlot is now to tell Sachin Pilot that he can also run for INC Prez against Ashok Gehlot.

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jaichind
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« Reply #686 on: September 28, 2022, 03:18:10 AM »

The situation in  Rajasthan INC is a total mess.  Both Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot are working to lobby the Gandhi clan to get what their want with a series of veiled threats.

There is a dog that is not barking: the BJP.  You would think that with the INC in a total mess in Rajasthan that the BJP will come in to pick up the pieces and just take over.  The reason I suspect the BJP is doing nothing is that the BJP has its own Rajasthan problems.   The BJP high command is not keen on former Rajasthan BJP CM Vasundhara Raje leading the BJP in the assembly elections next year but she seems to have her own independent base.  An early move for the BJP to move in to try to form a government with or without  Vasundhara Raje might trigger an early BJP civil war within Rajasthan and lead to a BJP split in Rajasthan even as the Rajasthan INC is in the middle of splitting.
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jaichind
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« Reply #687 on: September 28, 2022, 03:35:08 AM »

Given the current situation in Rajasthan INC high command might have to back off from their ideal of installing Sachin Pilotí as CM.   With Sachin Pilotís faction being so small as not even being able to pull down the government the most likely outcome is for Sachin Pilot and his faction joining the BJP and at least get a position of being #2 or #3 in the Rajasthan BJP or given a plum role in the Central government. 

Funny to imagine Pilot joining BJP given his family.

There are tons of examples of long-time INC leaders with INC links going back a couple of generations also defecting to BJP, especially in the last 8 years.
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jaichind
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« Reply #688 on: September 28, 2022, 07:45:21 AM »

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/congress-president-election-digvijaya-singh-may-contest-for-party-s-top-post-say-sources-2022-09-28-812097

"Congress president election: Digvijaya Singh may contest for party's top post, say sources"

With Ashok Gehlot insisting on controlling the Rajasthan CM no matter what it seems former MP CM  Digvijaya Singh  may be the new Gandhi clan candidate for INC Prez.
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jaichind
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« Reply #689 on: September 29, 2022, 08:07:12 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/rajasthan-congress-crisis-live-updates-cm-gehlot-delhi-president-election-sonia-gandhi-digvijay-singh-8179413/

"Congress President polls LIVE Updates: Ashok Gehlot wonít contest elections; Sonia Gandhi to decide on Rajasthan CM in a day or two, says KC Venugopal"

INC Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot will not contest in INC Prez elections

So it seems what took place was

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: We have an offer you cannot refuse.  Please give up your seat where you have power over your rival and take a position where you have responsibility but no power.

Ashok Gehlot to Gandhi clan: Yes Sir

Ashok Gehlot arranges his MLA to rebel on news of him stepping down while he disappears.

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: Please control your MLAs

Ashok Gehlot to Gandhi clan: They gone rouge.  I cannot control them !!!

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: Fine, let's cancel that offer we made you for you to take a role where you have responsibility but no power.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #690 on: September 29, 2022, 08:23:05 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/rajasthan-congress-crisis-live-updates-cm-gehlot-delhi-president-election-sonia-gandhi-digvijay-singh-8179413/

"Congress President polls LIVE Updates: Ashok Gehlot wonít contest elections; Sonia Gandhi to decide on Rajasthan CM in a day or two, says KC Venugopal"

INC Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot will not contest in INC Prez elections

So it seems what took place was

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: We have an offer you cannot refuse.  Please give up your seat where you have power over your rival and take a position where you have responsibility but no power.

Ashok Gehlot to Gandhi clan: Yes Sir

Ashok Gehlot arranges his MLA to rebel on news of him stepping down while he disappears.

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: Please control your MLAs

Ashok Gehlot to Gandhi clan: They gone rouge.  I cannot control them !!!

Gandhi clan to Ashok Gehlot: Fine, let's cancel that offer we made you for you to take a role where you have responsibility but no power.
As thus we have the cumulative outcome of various power plays onto themselves.
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jaichind
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« Reply #691 on: September 29, 2022, 08:36:18 AM »

The entire episode of the farce that is the INC Prez race so far speaks to one thing.  The Gandhi clan's power is well below what it used to be.  The key reason is that they can no longer get the votes for INC candidates as they did before the 1990s.  There was a period in 2004-2010 where there was a revival of the Gandhi clan brand but that crashed and burned quickly after that.

The inaction of the BJP in Rajasthan due to the BJP high command not knowing how to handle their difference with former BJP CM Vasundhara Raje shows that the BJP is pretty much turned into an organized and capable version of the 1980s INC where the Modi-Shah high command will not allow any local BJP CM to have their independent base.  The only BJP CMs that have their own independent base are UP's Yogi Adityanath (he is too big to control and has to be accepted), Karnataka's Yediyurappa (who got the ax 2021 even though this means the  BJP will most likely lose in 2023 Karnataka assembly elections) and Rajasthan's Vasundhara Raje (who the BJP High Command are still trying to figure out how to get rid of her by the 2023 assembly elections.)  From afar the BJP really now looks like the INC of the 1980s.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #692 on: September 29, 2022, 08:40:02 AM »

The entire episode of the farce that is the INC Prez race so far speaks to one thing.  The Gandhi clan's power is well below what it used to be.  The key reason is that they can no longer get the votes for INC candidates as they did before the 1990s.  There was a period in 2004-2010 where there was a revival of the Gandhi clan brand but that crashed and burned quickly after that.

The inaction of the BJP in Rajasthan due to the BJP high command not knowing how to handle their difference with former BJP CM Vasundhara Raje shows that the BJP is pretty much turned into an organized and capable version of the 1980s INC where the Modi-Shah high command will not allow any local BJP CM to have their independent base.  The only BJP CMs that have their own independent base are UP's Yogi Adityanath (he is too big to control and has to be accepted), Karnataka's Yediyurappa (who got the ax 2021 even though this means the  BJP will most likely lose in 2023 Karnataka assembly elections) and Rajasthan's Vasundhara Raje (who the BJP High Command are still trying to figure out how to get rid of her by the 2023 assembly elections.)  From afar the BJP really now looks like the INC of the 1980s.

Could it happen that the BJP is in for a terrible 2030s, due to this management strategy?
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jaichind
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« Reply #693 on: September 29, 2022, 08:49:26 AM »

The entire episode of the farce that is the INC Prez race so far speaks to one thing.  The Gandhi clan's power is well below what it used to be.  The key reason is that they can no longer get the votes for INC candidates as they did before the 1990s.  There was a period in 2004-2010 where there was a revival of the Gandhi clan brand but that crashed and burned quickly after that.

The inaction of the BJP in Rajasthan due to the BJP high command not knowing how to handle their difference with former BJP CM Vasundhara Raje shows that the BJP is pretty much turned into an organized and capable version of the 1980s INC where the Modi-Shah high command will not allow any local BJP CM to have their independent base.  The only BJP CMs that have their own independent base are UP's Yogi Adityanath (he is too big to control and has to be accepted), Karnataka's Yediyurappa (who got the ax 2021 even though this means the  BJP will most likely lose in 2023 Karnataka assembly elections) and Rajasthan's Vasundhara Raje (who the BJP High Command are still trying to figure out how to get rid of her by the 2023 assembly elections.)  From afar the BJP really now looks like the INC of the 1980s.

Could it happen that the BJP is in for a terrible 2030s, due to this management strategy?

That is what I am alluding to.  BJP's Hindu nationalist ideology does help to keep it organized even after Modi moves on would be a plus but back in the 1980s, the INC had the India Nationalist card which it then lost.  I guess the same could be true for BJP.  What is powerful about the Modi brand is that it is not a dynasty that projects the image of a selfless Sant that works for the wellbeing of India and not his family    The downside is that it is harder to transfer that image onto anyone else.  Amit Shah is an excellent strategist but I am not sure he will have the same connection with the Hindi belt masses that Modi has.  Yeah, if things go wrong in the economy or some scandal that undermines the BJP brand this entire model might fall apart a decade after Modi moves on.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #694 on: September 29, 2022, 09:01:19 AM »

The entire episode of the farce that is the INC Prez race so far speaks to one thing.  The Gandhi clan's power is well below what it used to be.  The key reason is that they can no longer get the votes for INC candidates as they did before the 1990s.  There was a period in 2004-2010 where there was a revival of the Gandhi clan brand but that crashed and burned quickly after that.

The inaction of the BJP in Rajasthan due to the BJP high command not knowing how to handle their difference with former BJP CM Vasundhara Raje shows that the BJP is pretty much turned into an organized and capable version of the 1980s INC where the Modi-Shah high command will not allow any local BJP CM to have their independent base.  The only BJP CMs that have their own independent base are UP's Yogi Adityanath (he is too big to control and has to be accepted), Karnataka's Yediyurappa (who got the ax 2021 even though this means the  BJP will most likely lose in 2023 Karnataka assembly elections) and Rajasthan's Vasundhara Raje (who the BJP High Command are still trying to figure out how to get rid of her by the 2023 assembly elections.)  From afar the BJP really now looks like the INC of the 1980s.

Could it happen that the BJP is in for a terrible 2030s, due to this management strategy?

That is what I am alluding to.  BJP's Hindu nationalist ideology does help to keep it organized even after Modi moves on would be a plus but back in the 1980s, the INC had the India Nationalist card which it then lost.  I guess the same could be true for BJP.  What is powerful about the Modi brand is that it is not a dynasty that projects the image of a selfless Sant that works for the wellbeing of India and not his family    The downside is that it is harder to transfer that image onto anyone else.  Amit Shah is an excellent strategist but I am not sure he will have the same connection with the Hindi belt masses that Modi has.  Yeah, if things go wrong in the economy or some scandal that undermines the BJP brand this entire model might fall apart a decade after Modi moves on.
I never thought of the INC as having the "Jai Hind" card in the 1980s, but that makes sense.
Perhaps Modi becomes a LDP-style power behind the throne? But that would be a rough transition from Modi's very presidential-style leadership of the country as PM...
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