Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10 (user search)
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 19025 times)
Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« on: January 18, 2022, 01:25:19 PM »

Latest JX PR poll


LDP    32.8%
KP       5.8%
PNHK   0.7%
JRP    16.7%
DPP     2.0%
CDP   17.7%
RS      1.5%
SDP    1.6%
JCP     5.9%



CDP is barely ahead of JRP but I guess these days that is a victory for CDP.  LDP number seems right and it gained a bunch of support back from JRP, KP under polled as usual and should really be around 12%-13%.  The JCP number looks bad.
Why am I not surprised that "ネット" [online respondents] were three times likelier to choose PNHK...
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2022, 12:41:04 AM »

Author, former Tokyo Governor and the most prominent Japanese far right politician, Ishihara Shintaro, has died at 89.
Big news. He was Governor of Tokyo less than 120 months ago too.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #2 on: February 12, 2022, 02:03:19 PM »

What the Lower House seat counts per prefecture in 2040 will be going by current population trends.

I'm making a map based off this. I will post as soon as I can.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #3 on: February 12, 2022, 03:25:02 PM »

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303321.msg8475830#msg8475830
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2022, 07:22:28 AM »

Mainichi poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 48(+3)/38(-8)

Kishida has a positive gender gap with women.  Men approval of Kishida cabinet 46/43 while women approval of Kishida cabinet 52/30 which is a reveal of the pattern during the Abe era
 

PR vote
LDP      31(--)
KP         2(-1)
JRP      14(-5)
DPP       5(+1)
CDP     12(+3)
RS         3(-1)
JCP        4(-1)

CDP regained some lost ground that it lost in Feb when former PM and now CDP MP Naoto Kan claimed that JRP were like Hitler which led to a firestorm and loss of support for CDP.
What would you say is the biggest reason for this gender gap?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2022, 12:13:55 PM »

Say the JRP suddenly found itself in charge of the Japanese government. What would they change?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2022, 04:53:26 PM »
« Edited: April 30, 2022, 04:58:50 PM by Southern Delegate Punxsutawney Phil »

https://www.nikkansports.com/general/nikkan/news/202204300000941.html

There are rumors that RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will run in the 5- member 神奈川(Kanagawa) district seat as opposed to the PR slate.  If so that would be the final nail in the coffin for the 2 CDP candidates running there.   In such a case the 2 LDP, 1 KP, and, 1 JRP candidate will win the first 4 seats, and a 4 way battle between the 2 CDP, 1 JCP, and 1 RS candidates for the last seat with JCP and RS much more likely to win the last seat as opposed to the 2 CDP candidates.  One of the LDP candidates and the JRP candidate have a DPJ background from the 2000s and have the ability to eat into the non-LDP vote giving the Center-Right parties a clear edge here.

Imagine being the biggest opposition party in Japan and not being able to elect a member in the third biggest prefecture in the country.
The absolute state of the Japanese CDP.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2022, 05:32:25 PM »

https://www.nikkansports.com/general/nikkan/news/202204300000941.html

There are rumors that RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will run in the 5- member 神奈川(Kanagawa) district seat as opposed to the PR slate.  If so that would be the final nail in the coffin for the 2 CDP candidates running there.   In such a case the 2 LDP, 1 KP, and, 1 JRP candidate will win the first 4 seats, and a 4 way battle between the 2 CDP, 1 JCP, and 1 RS candidates for the last seat with JCP and RS much more likely to win the last seat as opposed to the 2 CDP candidates.  One of the LDP candidates and the JRP candidate have a DPJ background from the 2000s and have the ability to eat into the non-LDP vote giving the Center-Right parties a clear edge here.

Imagine being the biggest opposition party in Japan and not being able to elect a member in the third biggest prefecture in the country.
The absolute state of the Japanese CDP.

They did it to themselves by nominating 2 candidates and it seems it is too late for them to undo this mistake.   

This seems like a rerun of the 2013 Upper House Tokyo district.  Back then Tokyo was a 5- member district and the DPJ had 2 incumbents which they re-nominated.  During the campaign, it was clear that DPJ's position was so poor that there is a very good chance that both DPJ candidates would not make it into the top 5.  DPJ then withdrew one of the 2 candidates but that candidate did not want to lose face of being deselected just ran as an independent and took enough votes from the other DPJ candidate for him to lose.  Ironically this election also included 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō).  The result was

LDP         18.9% (elected)
KP           14.2% (elected)
JCP          12.5% (elected)
Proto-RS  11.8%  (elected)  (山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) running as indpendent)
LDP         10.9%  (elected)
DPJ           9.8%   
JRP           7.3%
YP             5.7%
DPJ rebel   4.2%

Had the DPJ rebel stood down most likely the other DPJ incumbent would have beat out the LDP for the last seat.  JRP and YP also made the mistake of not putting up a joint candidate and missed out on taking out the second LDP winner.

If the CDP now withdraws one of its 2 candidates most likely that candidate would run anyway just to not lose face just like the DPJ in 2013 Tokyo.
Over-nominating is the single easiest way to lose seats in SNTV.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2022, 08:12:22 AM »

The next significant election before the Upper House elections will be the 新潟(Niigata) governor election on May 29th.  The pro-LDP incumbent is running for re-election and clearly has the edge.  The main opposition candidate is the head of a citizen action group and it seems that she will focus on an anti-nuclear power stance.  In 2016 the opposite defeated the pro-LDP candidate based on the nuclear power issue but with world energy prices surging it is clear this issue has lost its salience.  It is not clear which opposition parties (like CDP and JCP) will actually back the pro-opposition candidate.  DPP which is pro-nuclear power seems to be more likely to stay neutral or even back the pro-LDP candidate.  JRP might come in with a candidate but the JRP is anti-nuclear power and is much more likely to split the opposition vote if the main opposition candidate issue is going to be nuclear power.

Kind of feels like a good background for the LDP here, from the looks of it.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2022, 08:00:45 PM »

Head of LDP communications and past and most likely future LDP Prez contender 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) announces new LDP party logo going from
[snip]

Is that actually the party's new logo, or is it just a temporary publicity thing like when IHOP changed their name to IHOB?
Well, if it is, I can assure it will nyat be a problem. Tongue
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2022, 05:52:02 PM »

2016 Rengo vote.  Sum of all PR votes for Rengo background DP candidates in 2016.  Rengo is strong in old industrial parts of 静岡(Shizuoka) and 愛知(Aichi).   Rengo is also strong in 中国(Chūgoku) and 九州 (Kyushu) where they are in a constant battle there with JCP over control of unions there.

What explains the purple and deep red parts of Hokkaido?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2022, 06:20:09 PM »

2016 Rengo vote.  Sum of all PR votes for Rengo background DP candidates in 2016.  Rengo is strong in old industrial parts of 静岡(Shizuoka) and 愛知(Aichi).   Rengo is also strong in 中国(Chūgoku) and 九州 (Kyushu) where they are in a constant battle there with JCP over control of unions there.

What explains the purple and deep red parts of Hokkaido?
Retirement villages for union members.
Ah, that makes sense.
Part of me wonders how many worked in Hokkaido (such as in Yubari, which used to have 50,000+ people but now is home to less than 5,000, iirc). If you look at Japanese electoral maps in the 1950s to 1970s and 1980s you can see the Socialists top the poll in parts of Hokkaido.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2022, 04:48:20 PM »

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/757ee18fe9bd2c2fc1abe1d996e60bf93f285c52

Former DPJ PM 鳩山由紀夫(Hatoyama Yukio) who retired from politics in 2012 will make a jump back into politics.  It seems he will run in the next lower House elections under the label of his new party 共和党(RP) (Republican Party).  Former DPJ MP 首藤信彦(Shuto Nobuhiko) and member of RP will also run in the 神奈川(Kanagawa) district in the upper house.  Another nail in the coffin for the Center-Left forces there.  神奈川(Kanagawa) will almost certainly be a Right-Left split of 4-1.


Why has he named the party this? What is "Republican" about it?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2022, 06:51:50 AM »

https://vote.mainichi.jp/26san/

Is a survey that computes which party aligns best with you

I get

LDP        18
CDP        32
KP          11
JRP         36
JCP         30
DPP        25
RS          34
SDP        34
PNHK      39
HRP        68
PP          57
JFP         36
NPC        43
IPS         39

Among the major parties, I align the most with JRP but not that strongly and only slightly ahead of SDP and RS.   I align the most with the far-right parties like HRP and PP.

I think my higher score with JCP SDP and RS stems from my negative response to Abeconomics of LDP but the survey does not really get into why and assumes my opposition is aligned with Left parties when my position is more than Abeconomics is heterodox and that I am for going to a Thatcherite orthodox economic policy mix.  My low score for LDP clearly reflects my rejection of LDP economic policies as too heterodox and my libertarian positions on social issues which conflicts with LDP and KP positions.
I got
LDP        39
CDP        29
KP          25
JRP         25
JCP         14
DPP        43
RS          21
SDP        21
PNHK      39
HRP        32
PP          46
JFP         36
NPC        39
IPS         32

Pro-clarifying the SDF in the constitution, pro-housewife benefit, and support of existing sanctions...
I am not sure why I got PNHK remaining so high.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2022, 07:29:34 AM »

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.
Who benefits if one additional seat is added to Miyagi, Tokyo, and Kanagawa?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2022, 07:39:16 AM »

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.
Who benefits if one additional seat is added to Miyagi, Tokyo, and Kanagawa?

Miyagi it will be CDP.  In Tokyo and Kanagawa, it will be both CDP and JRP.  This is one of many reasons LDP prefers to not fix the problem by increasing the number of seats.  Another reason would be the accusation that they are just increasing the number of politicians that draw salaries off the backs of the voters.
With Miyagi it's something of a wash, no? Because Miyagi itself is quite marginal, it basically locks in 1 LDP 1 CDP. Of course, Tokyo and Kanagawa it is indeed likely to be CDP and JRP.
Ultimately, a merger of Fukui and Ishikawa sounds at least as bad for a LDP as adding more seats, even leaving aside the fact it would be very unpopular with voters in that prefecture. Merging the two is a guaranteed loss of an LDP seat, while the LDP can possibly win 3/7 in Tokyo in a good year. Plus it's good for Komeito, which is their partner. Kanagawa doesn't seem too different.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #16 on: June 25, 2022, 04:57:14 PM »

Party revenue with some info on the source.  LDP, JRP, and CDP mostly get funded by government funding of political parties based on the number of MPs and vote share. JCP's funding is massive and almost as large as LDP but most of it comes from the selling of its weekly magazine which all JCP supporters buy and is really a de facto party fee.   KP also makes a bunch of money from the KP newspaper which its supporters buy.  The size of the JCP revenue from its magazine is the secret of how JCP can run so many candidates and lose but have the funds to keep on coming back with more candidates that lose.

Komeito and the JCP are similar in many little ways. This is one of them.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2022, 02:37:30 AM »

Despite media surveys to the contrary there continue to be rumors out of 岡山(Okayama) that the LDP incumbant could be in trouble against the pro-CDP independent despite the JCP candidate being in the mix.    It seems the reason is that Rengo has decided to go all out to back the pro-CDP independent because the JCP is not part of the CDP alliance and more importantly it seems the local KP has also turned against the LDP.  It seems there are upsides to JCP not being part of the united opposition alliance which means Rengo and KP could switch over to a pro-CDP candidate.  We will see on election night how much these rumors hold up.

If they have turned against the local LDP, what was the most likely reason why?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2022, 02:53:22 AM »

So I looked up the results from last time.
LDP-KP 55.56%
DPJ-JCP 41.86%
HRP 2.59%
小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) is holding on a 14-point margin here...if she loses Komeito, that should be pretty painful though...who knows what the results will be when the votes are counted, though.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #19 on: July 01, 2022, 09:28:33 AM »

Heat waves continue in Japan.  Workers in Tokyo were asked to work in the dark.  The government came out with a program to give $15 to households that limits energy use which is being mocked on social media.
This is getting roundly mocked, but is it likely to actually do anything?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2022, 01:33:16 PM »



Came across this on Youtube.
Selective snapshots of another day worth of campaigning for Tachibana I guess.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #21 on: July 03, 2022, 11:23:13 AM »

Despite media surveys to the contrary there continue to be rumors out of 岡山(Okayama) that the LDP incumbant could be in trouble against the pro-CDP independent despite the JCP candidate being in the mix.    It seems the reason is that Rengo has decided to go all out to back the pro-CDP independent because the JCP is not part of the CDP alliance and more importantly it seems the local KP has also turned against the LDP.  It seems there are upsides to JCP not being part of the united opposition alliance which means Rengo and KP could switch over to a pro-CDP candidate.  We will see on election night how much these rumors hold up.

If they have turned against the local LDP, what was the most likely reason why?

From what I can gather it has to do with the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada).  It turns out that she has an American father and was born in the USA but then moved to 岡山(Okayama) which is her mother's prefecture after she was born.  So like Renho she has her own birther "issues" to deal with.  She also started her political career in Tokyo where she went to college and became a LDP up-and-coming star there before running for the Upper House in 岡山(Okayama) in 2016 when the seat unexpectedly became an open seat when a long-time popular opposition politician retired.  The LDP and KP base, tired of losing to that popular opposition politician for years united in 2016 for what they mostly consider a generic LDP candidate to win which they did.

But 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) was always seen by the local LDP and KP organization as an "outsider" and that came to a head in her re-election.  The local KP organization was raising doubts about endorsing 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) this time around and it seems was mostly a ploy to get 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) to pay more attention to their interest.  It seems 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) struck back by saying that she did not need KP's endorsement which led to a blowup.   The local LDP prefecture assembly members are freaked out about this since without KP support they might take a hit in the 2023 prefecture assembly election.  On the other hand, there seem to be some LDP supporters that have always been not so hot about the LDP-KP alliance that came out in favor of 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada)'s stance.  The pro-CDP independent tried to take advantage of this and asked for KP's endorsement and was rejected. 

The net effect is that the KP vote will be split between the LDP's 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) and the pro-CDP independent although I can see higher LDP turnout energized by what it appears to be小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada)'s principled stance.

The article also pointed out another reason why this development is not so rosy for the pro-CDP independent beyond a separate JCP candidate (well if JCP was backing the pro-CDP independent the KP who hates JCP above all else would back 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) anyway.)  The article points out that Rengo is backing the pro-CDP independent but used the phrase 吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) to describe that alliance.  吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) is an ancient Chinese saying from the Han dynasty that refers to a story from earlier Chinese history (during the era of Sun Tzu) where the kingdoms of Wu and Yue were rivals but when people from both kingdoms were stuck on the same boat that was about to capsize they all worked together to get the boat to safety.  Even though this saying was always about the need for enemies to pull together to deal with a present common danger the saying has always inferred (this is controversial as there have been alternative readings of this saying) that the alliance will break up after the common danger has passed.  The article's use of the phrase 吳越同舟 (Wu Yue on the same boat) implies the Rengo support for the pro-CDP independent is most likely not rock solid and some of the Rengo/DPP vote could go LDP.

Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.
What is the likeliest cause of these defections? What do these voters see in Kimi Onada?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #22 on: July 03, 2022, 11:29:44 AM »



Nikkie's survey said that the pro-CDP independent has 70% of the KP vote.  It seems it is defections of other parts of the opposition alliance to LDP and JCP that are preventing this seat from being compeititive.
What is the likeliest cause of these defections? What do these voters see in Kimi Onada?

As written before the reason would be the outburst from the LDP incumbent 小野田紀美 (Kimi Onada) saying publically that she "does not need KP endorsement" in response to the local KP having second thoughts about enforcing her.  I guess this blowup has the local KP steamed and is going over to the pro-CDP candidate, at least according to Nikkie.
Oh, I was mainly wondering if she's got any particular charisma, something likewise beneficial in an election, or something to that effect, that could cut into the opposition-friendly vote.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #23 on: July 03, 2022, 02:35:57 PM »

I can buy a JRP surge, but it's difficult for me to see how JCP would lose out in Tokyo. They have a solid lock on 10% of Tokyo's vote. Also very hard to see them finishing first in Kanagawa where the LDP has a star candidate.

I would agree with you.  For JCP in Tokyo, Nikkie could in theory say that this is because of JCP->RS tactical voting.  There is no logical answer for Kanagawa and the fact they have the results they have indicates they have oversampled JRP across the board.
So what can we learn from the results they got, given this? Not saying it's useless, but what does this poll tell us?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #24 on: July 05, 2022, 11:53:46 AM »

What are the long-term consequences for the Kansai region and Japanese politics in general if the JRP continues to make gains over the next 10 years?
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