Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10

[Logical]

Of the 3 seater prefectures, Hyogo will be the most interesting one again. It's urban nature and close proximity to Osaka means that the 3 main blocs (LDP/JRP/OPPO) have almost equal strength. Currently the seats are distributed between LDP, KP and JRP. This year JRP will almost certainly finish first, Komeito being Komeito will pull off some dark electoral magic to secure the second seat. The last seat will be closely contested between LDP and CDP. JCP is going to act as a spoiler for the opposition candidate if they choose to run and they probably will.

[Logical]

For the rump SDP (half of their parliamentary caucus and grassroots base defected to the CDP in early 2021) this is a do or die election. To qualify for political party subsidies you must have at least 5 MPs (they have 2) or win 2% of the nationwide PR vote in the last Lower or Upper House election. SDP won 2.09% in the 2019 UH election and 1.77% in the 2021 LH election. If they can't get above 2% in the national PR in this election then they can say goodbye to some 300 million Yen annually. Without the money, they would eventually be forced to merge with CDP or JCP.

[Logical]

Author, former Tokyo Governor and the most prominent Japanese far right politician, Ishihara Shintaro, has died at 89.

[Logical]

Nikkei January 28-30 poll

Kishida approvals 59(-6)/30(+4)

Upper House PR voting intentions
LDP 43 (+5)
JRP 16 (+6)
CDP 10 (-10)
JCP 4 (-2)
KP 3 (-5)
DPP 2
RS 1 (-1)
SDP 1
NP 0 (-1)

Kishida's honeymoon is waning off but he remains in a powerful position.

For the rump SDP (half of their parliamentary caucus and grassroots base defected to the CDP in early 2021) this is a do or die election. To qualify for political party subsidies you must have at least 5 MPs (they have 2) or win 2% of the nationwide PR vote in the last Lower or Upper House election. SDP won 2.09% in the 2019 UH election and 1.77% in the 2021 LH election. If they can't get above 2% in the national PR in this election then they can say goodbye to some 300 million Yen annually. Without the money, they would eventually be forced to merge with CDP or JCP.

Or they could just fizzle out. That and I highly doubt that they would merge with the JCP given historical separation and the JCP’s hierarchy and dislike for entryists or alliances with other smaller social democratic and socialist parties not apart of a grand coalition(not like there’s much of that, but still).

CDP already took a significant amount of the party’s local machinery and MP’s, so there is some doubt that the CDP would even accept it from their end.

Perhaps so, but SDP still owns a not insignificant amount of property and assets that comes handy for the often cash strapped CDP.

[Logical]

NHK has called it for the challenger by fewer than one thousand vote. Nagasaki City did break heavily for the local LDP - JRP candidate.

[Logical]

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqzntJdO-f5__MLhIv8xbWQ/videos
Fun channel for old Japanese election night programs.

[Logical]

JX Upper House PR poll

[Logical]

2016 Rengo vote.  Sum of all PR votes for Rengo background DP candidates in 2016.  Rengo is strong in old industrial parts of 静岡(Shizuoka) and 愛知(Aichi).   Rengo is also strong in 中国(Chūgoku) and 九州 (Kyushu) where they are in a constant battle there with JCP over control of unions there.

What explains the purple and deep red parts of Hokkaido?

Retirement villages for union members.

[Logical]

Election date will be set on July 10th and nomination day on June 22nd. Interest in the election is at one of the lowest ever recorded so I expect turnout to be even worse than 2019. Good for Komeito, JCP and fringe parties with a dedicated voter base however.

[Logical]

JPY crashes to 135 after BOJ did not raise rates to match the USA Fed rate increases.  It seems BOJ judges the domestic economy weak enough not to try to raise rates.  But doing so and creating a weak JPY will increase imported inflation.  The JPM CPI-adjusted currency strength indicator has JPY now at half the relative value it was in 2001.  The LDP is lucky that the election is on July 10 and not in the Fall as the domestic economic scene with respect to inflation will for sure get worse over the next few months.

Kishida is indeed lucky that he will not have to face another major electoral test after this one until 2025. You can weather bad spells of cabinet disapproval as long as the spectre of imminent electoral troubles remains distant as Abe repeatedly proved.

[Logical]

It seems that the founder of the defunct YP 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) is looking to run for re-election.  After YP fell apart and lost his Lower House seat in 2014,  渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) joined JRP in 2016 and was elected to the Upper House on the JRP PR slate in 2016.   He fell out with JRP afterward and formed an alliance with PNHK in 2019. 

Now he is looking to run again.  It is clear JRP will not run him.  Possible parties will be DPP, PNHK, or PP.  Out of these 3, PNHK and PP are more likely.  Other DPP PR candidates will view 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) trying to run on the DPP slate as trying to steal their slot and push back.  Both PNHK and PP are on the threshold of winning a PR seat and having the 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) personal vote could push them over the edge.  If 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) runs for PNHK or PP then the party he does run for is the odds-on favorite to win a PR seat in my view.

It seems PNHK has refused to run 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) on the PNHK slate since 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) insists on still being a member of the recreated rump YP versus merging YP into PNHK.  This pretty much means 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) will have to run on PP or else he is out in the cold and his political career will come to an end.

He can try running on his own, can't he? He probably won't win but he's got nothing to lose from trying anyway.

[Logical]

The redistricting plan for the Lower House based on the 2020 census have been submitted to the Prime Minister. Changes have been made to 140 constituencies across 25 prefectures. 10 seats in rural prefectures will be abolished for 10 seats in swingy urban ones.


Changes in Tokyo

Kanagawa

Saitama

Chiba

Aichi


Now for the prefectures that lost seats

Miyagi

Fukushima

Niigata

Shiga

Wakayama

Okayama

Hiroshima

Yamaguchi

Ehime

Nagasaki


There are also minor boundary changes in 10 other prefectures.

[Logical]

There will be 367 candidates for 75 district seats and 178 candidates for PR seats.



In addition to the 4 minor far right parties active this cycle there is also a new ごぼうの党 (Gobo Party). The list of candidates is filled with YouTubers, artists, singers and sportsmen. They appear to target young disillusioned voters. Smells like a publicity ploy to me though.

Another interesting thing is how there will be an NHK party and PP candidate in every single district. This is bad news for LDP because the far right parties will be able to absorb 3-5% of the LDP vote in critical single member districts.

[Logical]

I think there is a good chance of Komeito going down to 6 PR seats. They almost missed out in 2019 when their 7th candidate was the 49th person elected, had the number of PR seats remained at 48, they would've lost. They also undeperformed expectations in the last 2 national elections. The party is slowly dying off and they can't really draw from the large pool of floating voters.

[Logical]

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.

[Logical]

The size of the Japanese electorate continues to decline after peaking at 2016 as Japan's population shrinks.

2010: 104,029,135   
2012: 103,959,866
2013: 104,152,590
2014: 104,067,104
2015: Minimum voting age is lowered from 20 to 18
2016: 106,202,873
2017: 106,091,229
2019: 105,886,064
2021: 105,622,758
2022: 105,438,138

The voting power disparity in three prefectures is above the 3 times limit the Supreme Court of Japan prescribed in previous rulings. The value of a vote in Fukui is now worth more than 3x a vote from Kanagawa (3.032), Miyagi (3.025), and Tokyo (3.014). This has to be corrected by the next cycle in 2025. There are a few ways to address this, the simplest is by giving Kanagawa, Miyagi and Tokyo another pair of seats. Another solution would be merging Fukui's constituency with a neighboring prefecture's (most likely Ishikawa), but this will be very unpopular among voters and LDP bosses in both prefectures. The most radical solution would be reforming the whole upper house electoral system but it's unlikely that Kishida has the political capital to enact a large reform such as this.

They already had to do this for 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) and 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi).  After many complaints, the LDP had to change election law to allow a party to have a PR winner that is at the top of the list regardless of where he/she is in the personal vote.  This allowed the LDP to put 2 candidates from these two areas at the top of their PR list to ensure that every prefecture is represented in the Upper House.  If they have to do this they will have to do the same.  Of course, that will create complaints from the various LDP professional support groups that run candidates on the PR section that their slots are being eaten up by these rural prefecture quotas.

Agreed. Every solution isn't ideal from the LDP perspective but I think they will choose to increase the number of seats in the end since it will piss off fewer people.

[Logical]

Kyodo news PR poll

LDP 16-23
KP 6-8
CDP 6-9
JCP 3-5
RS 1-3
SDP 0-1
JRP 6-9
DPP 1-3
NHK 0-1
PP 0-1

CDP & JRP neck and neck. Everyone else is at their expected level of support.

[Logical]

CDP and DPP are still using the same 民主党 abbreviation on official bulletins just as 2021. If a voter writes 民主党 on their ballot paper their vote will be divided proportionally according to how many regular vote there were in each ballot box. I believe that DPP overperformed slightly in 2021 because of this rule.

[Logical]

CDP and DPP are still using the same 民主党 abbreviation on official bulletins just as 2021. If a voter writes 民主党 on their ballot paper their vote will be divided proportionally according to how many regular vote there were in each ballot box. I believe that DPP overperformed slightly in 2021 because of this rule

Good point.  I know CDP was and still is pretty upset about how DPP "stole" votes that were meant for them.   I guess the good news for CDP is that with both CDP and DPP having been around for at least 4 years now the chances of a vote for 民主党 or 民主 is lower.  Back in the 2019 election, Abe kept on referring to CDP as DPJ (民主党) exactly for the reason of trying to cut down the CDP PR vote through technicalities.

I looked it up and the number of voters that wrote 民主党 on their PR ballots is actually quite substantial. Of the 3.62 million ballots that were marked 民主党 in 2021 CDP was given 2.95m (81%) and DP 660k (19%). This is more than a quarter of the total vote each party gets. No wonder neither are willing to give up the rights to the 民主党 abbreviation.
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA192VO0Z10C22A4000000/

[Logical]

New NHK poll. Kishida government approval continues to decline as inflation starts to bite. Economic issues, not constitutional change, is the first thing on voter's mind for this election. Only 5% of voters have constitutional issues as their priority, compared to 43% on the economy and 16% on social security.

Party ID

[Logical]

Mainichi single member district poll. LDP clearly leads in 24, to close to call in 5, and opposition leads in 3.




OPPO leads: Aomori, Iwate and Yamagata
Too close to call: Niigata, Yamanashi, Nagano, Oita, Okinawa
LDP leads: everything else

[Logical]

Today's Kyodo poll also shows CDP taking second place at the expense of JRP. Very interesting, JRP's momentum has clearly stalled and CDP will likely remain the primary opposition party.

[Logical]

Are any of the fringe parties advocating for end of Japanese sanctions on Russia?

RS isn't fringe but they are easily the most pro Russia of parties (you may even call them tankies). When the diet voted on a resolution to condemn the Russian invasion the only members to vote against are 3 RS MPs. You can see this on the questionnaire NHK sent to every candidate, all RS PR candidates think that the sanctions on Russia should be eased.

Graded on a spectrum, the most anti Russia party is surprisingly the JCP while RS is by far the most pro Russia.

[Logical]

One of the LDP PR candidate is a famous Manga artist, Ken Akamatsu. Some posters here might be familiar with a few of his works.

He is running on an anti censorship, artistic freedom platform against laws regulating the distribution of manga and anime to minors. He is likely to be elected as he has the backing of the Japanese entertainment industry and their supporters.

His campaign office

[Logical]

Latest JX/go2senkyo survey for the large multi member districts.

Tokyo (6 seats)

Well ahead: LDP, CDP, JCP, KP
The fifth seat looks safe for the LDP, the final seat is close between Yamamoto Taro (RS) and JRP, although multiple surveys have shown that RS has a small but constant lead. Koike's TFA candidate has moved into the middle tier but still a long way from the sixth seat.

Kanagawa (4 seats for a 6 year term + 1 seat for a 3 year term)

LDP, LDP, KP will win the first three seats but the fourth and fifth seats are still tossups.
Surprisingly, one of the CDP candidates has moved up into fourth place. The JRP candidate has stalled and is now in a close fight with JCP for fifth place. The other CDP candidate, DPP and SDP are far behind.

Saitama (4 seats)

LDP, CDP and KP seats are safe. The final seat is close between the DPP backed independent incumbent and JCP. JRP is now far behind.

Aichi (4 seats)

LDP, CDP and KP seats should be safe. JRP slightly ahead of the DPP incumbent here. JCP have snuck inside the middle tier of candidates.

Kyoto (2 seats)

Fun 4 way battle. LDP and CDP are still narrowly ahead of the chasing pack of JRP and JCP.

Overall it is a good poll for the JCP. They have a decent chance of picking up a seat in Kanagawa and Saitama and a long shot in Kyoto. Bad for the JRP who have either stalled or fallen behind other parties everywhere.