Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10 (user search)
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: January 02, 2022, 05:52:23 AM »
« edited: June 15, 2022, 06:42:48 PM by jaichind »

2022 July 25th Upper House election

First big electoral test of PM Kishida.

The class of 2016 will be up for election.  The Opposition actually did pretty well in 2016 and LDP and JRP are more likely to make small gains this time around but it will most likely be limited.  The battle for the Upper House since the return of Abe has been about getting and keeping a solid pro-Constitutional reform 2/3 majority which has always eluded the LDP.  In theory, if you count DPP as pro-Constitutional reform then there is already a 2/3 majority in the Upper House for Constitutional reform.  The main problem is what LDP KP JRP and DPP have in mind as Constitutional reform are not the same so in practice, it will be hard to actually get anything done.

 
 
Map of 2016 results to the current status of the class of 2016
                
                   2016                      Today
District                
LDP                37                         36
KP                   7                           7
pro-LDP Ind                                  3
JRP                  3                           3
DP                 21                                    
DPP                                              3
CDP                                            16
OPPN               4                           4
JCP                  1                           1

3 2016 DP MPs have defected to become pro-LDP independents.  
A DP turned DPP MP resigned to run for governor of  埼玉(Saitama) and was replaced by a pro-DPP independent ​elected in a by-election
A LDP MP resigned to run for governor of 静岡(Shizuoka) and was replaced by a pro-DPP independent elected in a by-election
A DP MP became pro-Opposition independent when CDP and DPP were formed
2 pro-Opposition independents joined CDP and
1 pro-Opposition independent joined DPP

The 3 DP MPs that became pro-LDP independents will be tricky.  They would want to run for re-election on the LDP ticket but the local LDP branch would not agree to this so they might have to run against other LDP candidates to win while the Opposition will be running candidates as well.

On the PR side
                   2016                      Today
PR
LDP              19                           19
pro-LDP Ind                                   1
KP                 7                              7
YP                                                 1
JRP                4                             3
DP               11
DPP                                              4
CDP                                              7
LP                 1
SDP               1                             1
JCP                5                             5

A DP MP became a pro-LDP independent
A LP MP joined CDP
A JRP MP joined recreated YP (this is, of course, 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) the original founder of YP back in 2008 and joined and won on the JRP PR slate in 2016 in a political comeback)
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: January 02, 2022, 05:59:25 AM »
« Edited: January 10, 2022, 07:57:03 AM by jaichind »

Map of the class of 2019 to today (did not change much)

                     2019              Today
District
LDP                 38                   37
KP                     7                    7
JRP                   5                     4
DPP                  2                     2
CDP                 13                   13
OPPN                6                     7
JCP                   3                     3

A LDP MP had to resign on corruption charges and a pro-opposition independent won the by-election
A JRP MP resigned to run for mayor of 横浜(Yokohama).  His seat will be filled as part of the 2022 election.  This means the 神奈川(Kanagawa) district will elect 5 winners versus 4 to fill this open this.  The last-place winner will be allocated this open seat and will have to face re-election in 2025.


                    2019                Today
PR
LDP                19                   19
KP                   7                     7
PNHK               1                     1
JRP                  5                     5
DPP                  3                    3
CDP                  8                    8
RS                   2                     2
SDP                 1                    
OPPN                                      1
JCP                  4                     4

SDP MP joined CDP
CDP MP left CDP to become pro-Opposition independent
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2022, 11:57:35 AM »

So overall current Upper House standings are

LDP               111
pro-LDP Ind       4
KP                   28
PNHK                1
YP                     1
JRP                 15
DPP                12
CDP                44
OPPN              12
RS                    2
JCP                 13

with one seat vacant
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2022, 12:04:02 PM »
« Edited: January 02, 2022, 12:10:35 PM by jaichind »

What is critical for the Opposition to hold on to their seats is how the 32 1- member district seats go.  In 2016 and 2019 there was a de facto Center-Left Opposition (including DPP in 2019) JCP alliance to take on LDP in these 32 seats.  In 2016 it was LDP-Opposition 21-11 and in 2019 it was LDP-Opposition 22-10.  This time around it seems DPP is ruling out an alliance with JCP and will be working closely with JRP.  This does not mean they will not de facto work with JCP in these 32 seats when DPP has two 1- member seats to defend (山形(Yamagata) and 大分(Ōita))

Another complicating factor is that in 宮城(Miyagi) and 福島(Fukushima) the 2016 DP winner have since defected to LDP and are now pro-LDP independents.  Both will want to run for re-election but the local LDP branch will for sure run their own candidate turning both races into a likely 3- way race of LDP vs pro-LDP defector from DP vs Opposition.  I can even see JRP-DPP backing the pro-LDP defector as a way to get into the act.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: January 02, 2022, 06:32:07 PM »

JRP is experiencing somewhat of a surge in support at the moment - if they could sustain or even build on this over the next six months what would their realistic best case be?

Even if the current JRP surge is sustained I think it will have a limited impact on the upcoming 2022 Upper House elections.  JRP will benefit most from the PR slate where I guess it can go from the 5 PR seats it won in 2019 to something like 7 seats in a best-case scenario.  Understand that the LDP outperforms on the Upper House PR slate since you can also vote for candidates in addition to parties on the Upper PR ballot and the LDP has an edge in political talent that can attract a personal vote that gets accrued to the LDP.  Many of such voters would otherwise have voted for JRP.

In the district seat the pickens gets pretty slim for JRP.  The JRP just does not have the political talent outside of Kinki and other urban centers to win.  JRP will for sure win 2 seats in 大阪(Osaka) and 1 seat 兵庫(Hyōgo) and is very likely to win a seat in 神奈川(Kanagawa).  But the 神奈川(Kanagawa) win merely gains back the seat it lost when its 2019 神奈川(Kanagawa) resigned to run for the mayor of 横浜(Yokohama) opening up the 神奈川(Kanagawa) district to have 5 instead of 4 winners where JRP is very likely to win one.  Beyond that can win a seat in the 6- member東京(Tokyo) like it did in 2019 but this time around CDP political superstar Renho (former leader of DP) will most likely take a lot of marginal independent voters which are the type of voters that could vote JRP in a JRP surge year so JRP winning a seat here is not a lock with JCP and RS also in the hut for seats and LDP likely to win 2 seats and KP winning its customary seat.

Beyond these prefectures, it gets hard to see where else JRP can win. On paper 4- member 愛知(Aichi) is a good candidate given the urban nature of the prefecture and local TCJ is a JRP ally.  The problem is likely JRP ally DPP has a current seat and will be looking to run for re-election and would pressure JRP not to go all out to win in case it hurts the DPP incumbent's chances of winning.  Another possible but not likely place for JRP to win is 2- member 京都(Kyoto) but the LDP CDP and JCP seem to have a 3-way monopoly for 京都(Kyoto) Upper House elections and unless JRP comes up with a very strong candidate it will become a victim of tactical voting even if JRP has the theoretical base to win one of the 2 seats.

I can see the JRP in some rural 1- member prefectures where it has been trending JRP like 富山(Toyama) doing well enough to be the main opponent to LDP although in all of the LDP will win with ease.

JRP's big long-term problem is that for it to be a real viable alternative to LDP it has to claw some of the LDP votes as there are limits on how many Center-Left votes it can get.  But a decline of the LDP vote would conjure the fear of the LDP and JRP voters that it might trigger a CDP-JCP government and these possible LDP defectors to JRP will run back to LDP to ensure that CDP-JCP does not win.
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2022, 06:26:21 AM »

Some 2021 election PR and PR swing maps

LDP PR 2021.  Stronger in rural areas and weaker in urban areas


LDP PR swing 2017 to 2021
LDP surges in rural areas and especially areas around 広島(Hiroshima) due to Kishida but loses ground in urban areas, especially in the Kinki areas to JRP.  There was some sort of late revolt against LDP in the deep South 九州(Kyushu) area.



KP PR 2021.  Strength the South


KP PR swing 2017 to 2021
Gains ground in the North most likely from marginal votes that went to CDP and HP back in 2017 but loses ground in Kinki to JRP and loses ground in the South to the LDP especially the area around Kishida's home prefecture of 広島(Hiroshima).  KP does gain some ground in the deep South 九州(Kyushu) area where the anti-LDP shift might have moved some votes to KP.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2022, 06:38:31 AM »

More 2021 PR maps and swings

CDP PR 2021.  Stronger in the North than the South


CDP PR 2017 to 2021 swing.  Gains from the 2017 HP/DPP rural vote across the board but lose ground in urban areas to JRP and RS.  Also lost ground across the board to JRP in the Kinki area especially in 大阪(Osaka).   CDP 2017 was a very urban party.  CDP 2021 is much more balanced.




JRP PR 2021. Very strong in Kinki area as well urban centers but spreading to some of the rural areas east of Kinki.


JRP PR swing 2017 to 2021
Surge across the board but especially in the Kinki and urban areas.  The surge in Eastern 北海道(Hokkaido) is due to the impact of old LDP regional splinter NPD which and been an ally of DPJ is now an ally of JRP and transferred its vote base in Eastern 北海道(Hokkaido) to JRP


JIP PR 2014 to JRP PR 2021 swing
JIP in 2014 was made up of the core Osaka-based JRP plus various DPJ and YP rebels in the rest of Japan.  In 2015 JIP split with the non-core Osaka part eventually merging with DPJ to form DP which in turn later split into CDP and DPP leaving a refounded JRP with its core Osaka vote.  The 2014 to 2021 JIP to JRP swing shows the impact of that split with JRP still way below JIP outside the Kinki area but much stronger in the Kinki area.  Also, you can see that the JRP is slowly spreading to rural prefectures in the proximity of Kinki like 富山(Toyama) and 徳島(Tokushima) as well as urban areas like Tokyo.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2022, 06:49:59 AM »

More 2021 PR maps and swings

JCP PR 2021.  JCP has strength in certain prefectures but is generally weak in rural areas.


JCP PR 2017 to 2021 swing.  Mostly lost some ground since 2017.  In parts of the rural North JCP did lose some votes to CDP in 2017 which it is now regaining.



DPP PR 2021.  A few areas of strength but generally stronger in rural areas than urban areas.


DPP PR 2019 to 2021 swing.  2021 DPP is a rump of 2019 DPP since most of DPP has since merged into CDP.  You can see this with mostly Northern rural prefectures having a large swing of the 2019 DPP vote toward CDP.  But it seems in urban areas the DPP is getting a positive swing which must be anti-JCP CDP voters angry at the CDP-JCP alliance.  JCP is stronger in urban areas ergo they tend to pose a greater threat to CDP in urban areas whereas in rural areas JCP are weak and there is a lot less anti-JCP view within rural CDP voters.



RS PR 2021.  Area of strength are in urban areas, especially around Greater Tokyo


RS PR 2019 to 2021 swing.  RS is actually gaining ground in rural areas and lost some ground in urban areas.  In 2019 RS was the hip party for the floating urban marginal voters to vote for.  In 2021 that seems to be JRP and even DPP.  RS made up for this by making gains in rural areas.  It seems that in parts of deep South 九州(Kyushu) RS also gained from the local revolt there against LDP.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2022, 08:38:45 AM »

The fate of the 3 2016 DP winners that since became pro-LDP independents is interesting to follow.  It seems the 静岡(Shizuoka) DP defector will not try to run for re-election clearing the way for the LDP and DPP to win the two seats in 2022.

In 宮城(Miyagi) the DP turned pro-LDP independent insisted on running for re-election while the local LDP branch had already come up with their own candidate.  So it will be most likely LDP vs CDP vs pro-LDP DP defector.

In 福島(Fukushima) the situation is even more complex.  The DP turned pro-LDP independent also insisted on running for re-election while the local LDP branch also came up with its own candidate.  But it seems another LDP aspirant that did not get the local LDP branches node insists he will also run as well.  So for now it will be LDP vs CDP vs pro-LDP DP defector vs LDP rebel.

It is always hard for these defectors to get the nomination.  The local LDP branch has fought them as opposition candidates for years so it is hard to get them to back these defectors.  Of course under the rule of "if you win you are LDP" if these DP turned pro-LDP defectors manage to win the race in either seat as a pro-LDP independent then they will be accepted by both the national LDP and very likely the local LDP branch and be allowed into the LDP caucus.  It seems unlikely they will win though.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2022, 08:59:29 AM »

The other complicated 1- member seat would be 秋田(Akita).  The LDP incumbent will be running for re-election and should win even though a united opposition won here in 2019.   The complicating factor is 村岡敏英(Muraoka Toshihide) will run.  He is the son of a LDP MP but after being denied a LDP ticket for his father's old seat in the Lower House race defected to JRP in 2012 and won in 2012 and 2014 as a JRP and JIP candidate.  He then joined DP after JIP merged and lost in 2017 as the HP candidate.  He has since been a pro-DPP independent and lost in 2021 as a Right-wing opposition candidate for governor.

The race will now become LDP vs CDP vs pro-DPP independent.  In theory, the LDP should win with ease but 村岡敏英(Muraoka Toshihide) could capture a good part of the JRP and DPP vote and could cut into the LDP vote as well depending on the dynamics of the race and potentially throw the race to the likely CDP candidate.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: January 12, 2022, 09:36:51 AM »

It seems for the 1- member district the JRP is looking to run candidates in 宮城(Miyagi), 滋賀(Shiga), 奈良(Nara), 和歌山(Wakayama), 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi), and 香川(Kagawa).  Historically JRP has run in 1- member district only in 奈良(Nara).  JRP has strength in 滋賀(Shiga) so JRP running there could complicate a likely LDP win.  JRP did very well in 徳島(Tokushima)  PR vote in 2021 so it is not a surprise that they want to try out 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) even though the LDP should win comfortably.  JRP is not that strong in 宮城(Miyagi) but there it will be a 3-way race already (LDP vs CDP vs DP turned pro-LDP independent) so JPR getting involved will make a difference. 

JRP will not win any of these races but most likely will make an impact especially in 宮城(Miyagi) and 滋賀(Shiga) only because they are swing prefectures.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: January 12, 2022, 12:49:37 PM »

In the usually 4- member but this time 5- member 神奈川(Kanagawa) districts there are a few interesting candidates already.

First ex-governor 松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) will run on the JRP ticket to win back his old seat.  He was a right-wing member of the DPJ before being elected governor in 2003.  He moved further right after serving two terms as governor and was elected to the Upper House in 2013 on the YP ticket.  He was re-elected in 2019 on the JRP ticket.  He resigned last year to run for the mayor of 横浜(Yokohama) and failed miserably.  It was his resignation that made this year's race a 5- member race as opposed to the normal 4- member race where the 5th place winner served out the 3 years left in 松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi)'s term.  It will be funny (and it is likely) if 松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) came in 5th and served out his own term.

Former YP leader 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) will run as the second LDP candidate.  The reason why this is very ironic is because of 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō)'s history.  He was first elected to the Upper House in 1998 on the DPJ ticket and reflected in 2004 was considered a rising DPJ star.  As 2009 approached and it seems DPJ was going to win 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) wanted to run for the Lower House so he can get a better position in the incoming DPJ cabinet.  DPJ's Ozawa controlled the DPJ nomination process and preferred that 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) stay in the Upper House to ensure DPJ a win in the 2010 Upper House elections and turned down his request.  In anger 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) quit DPJ and ran in the Lower House on the YP ticket in 2009 and won.  He won re-election in 2012 on the YP ticket but when YP fell apart in 2014 with YP founder and leader Watanabe caught in a campaign finance funding scandal 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) found himself in charge of the YP for a few months before the party dissolved.  浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) won in 2014 Lower House election with de facto support of the DPJ but in 2017 he decided to join LDP and was rebuffed losing his seat in a 3 way battle to CDP between CDP LDP and himself.  In 2021 the result was the same with the local LDP refusing to nominate 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) leading to a 3-way race of CDP vs LDP vs 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) with CDP winning again.   Now 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) agreed to the LDP proposal that he run for the Upper House on the LDP ticket and if he wins he will be allowed into the LDP caucus.  The reason why this is funny is 浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) left DPJ in 2009 BECAUSE he did not want to be in the Upper House and instead wanted to be in the Lower House.  Now he accepts being in the Upper House again just to get into the LDP.

In the 5 way race in 神奈川(Kanagawa), it is clear that one of the two LDP candidates will win, KP will win, and CDP will win.  The last 2 seats will be between JCP, JRP (松沢成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi)), and the second LDP candidate (浅尾慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō)).  If the CDP nominates only one candidate then the JCP is likely to win.  If the CDP nominates a second candidate then JRP and the second LDP candidate will both win leaving the second CDP and JCP candidate in the dust.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2022, 07:37:07 PM »

Former LDP PM during 1989-1991 海部俊樹(Kaifu Toshiki) just passed away.   He came to power right after the Recruit scandal and was viewed as clean and become a compromise candidate to improve the image of the LDP.  He actually left the LDP in 1994 leading a small splinter that eventually merged into Ozawa's NFP.  When Ozawa moved to merge NFP into DPJ in 2001 Kaifu was one of those that refused and help form NCP which merged into LDP in 2003.   He was re-elected in his 愛知(Aichi) during this entire time and was only defeated in the DPJ wave of 2009 at age 79 when he retired from politics.  Japan has a clear tradition of former PMs continuing on in politics and in many cases plotting to come back to become PM.  Koizumi retiring from politics after stepping down from PM is an exception and that was only to pave the way for his son to run for his seat and get enough tenure later on to become PM himself.  

I did a lot of regional and national quiz bowl competitions in high school and I recall helping my team win a competition (I think it was early 1990) by correctly namely Kaifu as the PM of Japan at one of these competitions.  
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2022, 01:00:55 PM »

Jaichind do you think there is any chance that Abe will become overtly involved in politics again? Or is he happy as a powerbroker?

I think the chances of him being PM again is low.  The only chance is if there was some sort of LDP electoral disaster like 2009 and then Abe is viewed as the only one that can bring the LDP back to power again.  LDP assigns posts by tenure so if Abe gets in again he will be viewed as blocking the natural progression/promotion of others and eventually he knives will be out for him.  I think he knows this and will focus on being the leader of the largest LDP faction over the next decade or so.
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jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2022, 04:16:05 PM »

Of the 3 seater prefectures, Hyogo will be the most interesting one again. It's urban nature and close proximity to Osaka means that the 3 main blocs (LDP/JRP/OPPO) have almost equal strength. Currently the seats are distributed between LDP, KP and JRP. This year JRP will almost certainly finish first, Komeito being Komeito will pull off some dark electoral magic to secure the second seat. The last seat will be closely contested between LDP and CDP. JCP is going to act as a spoiler for the opposition candidate if they choose to run and they probably will.

In 2019 兵庫(Hyōgo) was also the most fun as well.  The pre-election surveys were all over the place with a 4 way battle for the top 3 seats. 

The result ended up being

JRP (elected)
KP  (elected)
LDP (elected)
CDP
JCP

Even though all pre-election surveys had LDP being first.  It seems what took place was LDP tactical voting for KP and JRP to keep out CDP went overboard and almost cost LDP the seat.

Of all the multi-member districts 3- member 兵庫(Hyōgo) seems the most interesting.   This is because it seems the LDP is ahead but KP JRP CDP seems to be locked in a three way tie behind LDP.  This leads to very different media projections.  They are respectively

        朝日       共同       毎日         産経                  時事      日経       読売
     (Asahi)  (Kyodo) (Mainichi) (Sankei)   (JNN)   (Jiji)   (Nikkei)  (Yomiuri)
1      LDP       LDP        LDP         LDP        LDP    LDP      LDP         LDP
2       KP        JRP         JRP         JRP        JRP     JRP      CDP          KP
3      JRP        KP          KP          CDP         KP      KP       JRP         CDP
4      CDP      CDP        CDP          KP        CDP    CDP       KP         JRP
5      JCP       JCP         JCP         JCP         JCP    JCP       JCP         JCP

So all we know is that LDP is first and JCP is last.  KP JRP CDP all appear as 2nd 3rd or 4th in different projections.



This time around I think it will be fun but the result will be the same, JCP will get enough votes to pull CDP to 4th place and not win a seat.  The only hope CDP has is JRP gains so much from LDP that CDP beats out LDP for 3rd place despite JCP being in the race.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2022, 08:17:04 AM »

Latest 読売(Yomiuri) PR vote poll

LDP       42
KP          4
JRP       14
DPP        3
CDP        9
RS          1
SDP        1
JCP         3

Disasterous numbers for Center-Left and JCP and pretty good numbers for LDP and JRP.  LDP is still in a post-election honeymoon period for Kishida so I expect their numbers to fall.  But looking at this poll it seems like JRP is more likely to benefit from any LDP fall.  These numbers might convince DPP to go all-in with an alliance with JRP and cut off any tactical alliance with CDP and indirectly JCP.  That could be disastrous for CDP and they have to hope that polls closer to the election gets them into the high teens for their PR vote or else 2022 Upper House election might become 2013 redux where LDP cruised to a landslide with JRP and YP doing well at the expense of DPJ.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2022, 11:19:53 AM »

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b4b86504abbeb79d171b54f90a45e72d4e7c112d

It seems DPP and Koike's TPFA will merge.  DPP was formed in 2018 when it split from the now-defunct HP which was formed by Koike in 2017 and abandoned by Koike after the 2017 Lower House elections.  TPFA was always the Tokyo regional branch of HP and is still de facto controlled by Koike.  DPP outperformed a bit in 2021 (mostly in urban areas) and will be a lot stronger in Tokyo after this merger. This also means that the Koike brand will be behind DPP going forward.  CDP was hoping to pretty much finish off DPP by taking over the large majority of DPP MPs in 2020 to consolidate the entire non-JCP Center-Left vote.  It seems the CDP goal is getting further and further from reality.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2022, 08:00:35 AM »

Kishida cabinet approval rating curve surging upward


Although approval of COVID-19 response is heading back down again even as it is still well above water
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2022, 04:57:20 AM »

Japan's COVID-19 surge reaches levels back in the Summer of last year.  Hospitalizations (brown bubble) are not as high as levels of Summer of last year but clearly rising.   Had this surge taken place in Nov 2021 the 2021 Lower House elections would have been very different.

So far this surge is not hitting the Kishida cabinet that hard.  I guess the population is getting used to COVID-19 surges are a part of life.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2022, 07:33:42 AM »
« Edited: January 18, 2022, 07:41:21 AM by jaichind »

Latest JX PR poll


LDP    32.8%
KP       5.8%
PNHK   0.7%
JRP    16.7%
DPP     2.0%
CDP   17.7%
RS      1.5%
SDP    1.6%
JCP     5.9%



CDP is barely ahead of JRP but I guess these days that is a victory for CDP.  LDP number seems right and it gained a bunch of support back from JRP, KP under polled as usual and should really be around 12%-13%.  The JCP number looks bad.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #20 on: January 22, 2022, 06:37:57 AM »

Mainichi poll.  Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 52/36

PR vote

LDP     27
KP        4
PNHK    1
JRP     21
DPP      4
CDP    11
RS       3
SDP      1
JCP       5

JRP is still very strong and taking from both CDP and LDP in this poll unlike the LDP and CDP recovery in the JX PR poll.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #21 on: January 22, 2022, 11:00:04 AM »

Election for 名護市(Nago) mayor in 沖縄(Okinawa) tomorrow.  In 2018 LDP-KP roped in JRP to form a grand alliance to defeat the Center-Left opposition-JCP grand alliance incumbent 54.6-45.4.  This time around the pro-LDP incumbent backed by LDP-KP is facing a Center-Left opposition-JCP candidate.  This time the JRP is neutral which makes the race competitive despite the pro-LDP candidate having the incumbent advantage.  Most likely the pro-LDP candidate will win but if it is very close it is a positive signal for the incumbent Center-Left opposition-JCP governor when he is up for re-election later this year.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #22 on: January 23, 2022, 07:43:55 AM »

名護市(Nago) mayor election exit poll has pro-LDP incumbent with a tiny lead over Center-Left Opposition-JCP grand alliance.  This shows the impact of JRP which was neutral this election but with JRP backing the Center-Left Opposition-JCP grand alliance incumbent was defeated by the pro-LDP candidate in 2018.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,857
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #23 on: January 23, 2022, 09:36:26 AM »

名護市(Nago) mayor election ended in a big LDP-KP victory of a vote share 57.5% over the Center-Left Opposition-JCP alliance.  It seems the exit polls were off because the LDP-KP incumbent swept the early vote.  LDP now has a chance at unseating the 沖縄(Okinawa) Center-Left Opposition-JCP alliance incumbent later this year.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,857
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #24 on: February 02, 2022, 09:02:59 AM »

What the Lower House seat counts per prefecture in 2040 will be going by current population trends.
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