Canadian by-elections 2021-2022
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September 30, 2022, 10:05:40 AM
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections 2021-2022  (Read 6963 times)
adma
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« Reply #150 on: September 27, 2022, 07:22:02 PM »

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.

Of course, it wasn't such a problem before there came to be so much monolithic urban/rural electoral sorting.  What might also help is expanding the scope of "available" urbanity (i.e. returning to the days of Swift Current or Yorkton or Battlefords targetability)--and, of course, echoing Alberta in '15, a re-fragmentation on the right..
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mileslunn
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« Reply #151 on: September 28, 2022, 12:12:03 PM »

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.

Of course, it wasn't such a problem before there came to be so much monolithic urban/rural electoral sorting.  What might also help is expanding the scope of "available" urbanity (i.e. returning to the days of Swift Current or Yorkton or Battlefords targetability)--and, of course, echoing Alberta in '15, a re-fragmentation on the right..

I kind of think if NDP wins in next decade, it will come from split on right as when in power for a long time, splits on right seem more common.  Its easy to unite when a common enemy.  When the threat of them winning becomes a distant memory, much easier to split and no doubt in Saskatchewan you have divide with most urban Saskatchewan party members being more moderate fiscally conservative but socially moderate types while rural membership much more likely to be your right wing populist types.  You see it in UCP and while not yet in Saskatchewan Party, I imagine its only a matter of time before you do.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #152 on: September 29, 2022, 07:14:05 AM »

NDP"s biggest problem in Saskatchewan is lack of rural support.  In most provinces you can win just by sweeping the cities, but in Saskatchewan that is not enough.  Only silver lining is Saskatoon and Regina fast growing while rural areas losing people so may mean NDP out of power for a few more terms but once those two cities have more than half the population, I think they can win again.  Off course need to sweep both which is not easy but can be done plus some in Prince Albert, Moose Jaw and two Northern ones.

Of course, it wasn't such a problem before there came to be so much monolithic urban/rural electoral sorting.  What might also help is expanding the scope of "available" urbanity (i.e. returning to the days of Swift Current or Yorkton or Battlefords targetability)--and, of course, echoing Alberta in '15, a re-fragmentation on the right..

Outside of these, the SNDP does have a few rural seats they can target, where they have a solid base (25%+) as of 2020 election.
- Meadow Lake (26%)
- Batoche (27)
- Saskatchewan Rivers (26%)
These are Northern seats, but "transition" seats if you will, with southern rural influences. ML and SR were held by the NDP before 2007.

- Indian Head-Milestone (28%)
- Last Mountain-Touchwood (25%)
Both in the southeast, the rural seats surrounding the north and east of Regina.

If the SNDP is looking to target to at least gain a caucus of 20+, these are their best bets in rural SK
As of the last June poll the NDP are up, but not much, 34% vs 31% at the election. They did poll as high as 39% in January, but the "other" vote (PC, Buffalo Party) was 10% then... the split on the right is starting to some degree while the Liberals are still a non-factor at 2%.
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