Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 30728 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #550 on: July 10, 2022, 02:26:52 PM »

With 79% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are
 
JRP and DPP continue to gain ground against LDP.  JRP is now up to 8 PR seats.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      19      35.3%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       12.0%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.3%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        8       14.6%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         5.8%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.6%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.2%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.6%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #551 on: July 10, 2022, 02:40:26 PM »

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.
Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
What did they do differently on the campaign?

Abandoned the old workers party image; went full rainbows, abortion, LGBT+ rights. Their party list is filled with activists instead of union representatives now.

What sort of abortion liberalization do they favour in a Japanese context?

Kind of sad to see this. Is JCP still more old school labor party in terms of personnel and rhetoric?
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jaichind
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« Reply #552 on: July 10, 2022, 02:52:59 PM »

A quick glance at PP and PNHK PR vote by prefecture seem to indicate that PNHK is not correlated by region but PP is stronger in urban areas and LDP strongholds.
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Logical
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« Reply #553 on: July 10, 2022, 02:58:03 PM »

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.
Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
What did they do differently on the campaign?

Abandoned the old workers party image; went full rainbows, abortion, LGBT+ rights. Their party list is filled with activists instead of union representatives now.

What sort of abortion liberalization do they favour in a Japanese context?

Kind of sad to see this. Is JCP still more old school labor party in terms of personnel and rhetoric?
As I understand it, abortion is allowed only with the father's consent in Japan. They want to remove this requirement so only the woman's consent and a doctor's approval is required.

The most old school labor party is DPP. They are the reincarnation of the old DSP, their primary support base the RENGO union. Like the old DSP, they are also willing to work with LDP govs to achieve their goals.
JCP has also moved away from old school labor rhetoric. The reason is because the JCP industrial base is also slowly dying. While Zenroren remains strong in certain industries and areas JCP draws most of its support these days from middle aged voters in urban prefectures. They talk a lot more about rising prices, consumption tax, and increasing childcare spending as a result.
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PSOL
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« Reply #554 on: July 10, 2022, 03:06:41 PM »

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.
Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
What did they do differently on the campaign?

Abandoned the old workers party image; went full rainbows, abortion, LGBT+ rights. Their party list is filled with activists instead of union representatives now.

What sort of abortion liberalization do they favour in a Japanese context?

Kind of sad to see this. Is JCP still more old school labor party in terms of personnel and rhetoric?
Yes, they still have the most avenues for cosplaying while accomplishing nothing with the geezers, although DPP or Renho (CDP) might be more your avenue.

Outside of my opposition to fake workers parties, going full rainbow is exactly how the "Old Left" won seats and made it to power.

A quick glance at PP and PNHK PR vote by prefecture seem to indicate that PNHK is not correlated by region but PP is stronger in urban areas and LDP strongholds.
What are the regional profiles of a few of their best results?
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jaichind
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« Reply #555 on: July 10, 2022, 03:16:30 PM »

With 90% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are
 
LDP-KP continues to lose ground and is now at 46.5% which is well below the 2021 level of 47.1%

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      19      34.7%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       11.8%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.3%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        8       14.8%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         5.9%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.7%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.3%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.4%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.7%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.1%                          1.0%
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Logical
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« Reply #556 on: July 10, 2022, 03:48:17 PM »

Author and disgraced former governor of Tokyo, Inose Naoki, is elected from the JRP PR list.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #557 on: July 10, 2022, 04:17:11 PM »


(NHK)
NHK graphic. It speaks for itself.
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xelas81
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« Reply #558 on: July 10, 2022, 04:18:00 PM »

There was also election for Shiga Governor.

Unsurprisingly the incumbent, Taizo Mikasuki, won a landslide over JCP challenger.

Incumbent   86.9%
JCP             13.1%
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jaichind
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« Reply #559 on: July 10, 2022, 04:20:03 PM »

With 96% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are
 
LDP-KP continues to lose ground and now LDP is at 18 seats while CDP is back up at 7 seats.  The last batch of votes will determine which of the two will get the final PR seat (LDP 18 or 19, CDP 6 or 7).  LDP-KP is now at 46.2%.  Amazing.

I guess the Abe assassination did not increase the number of LDP voters that much but made it more likely for LDP voters not to defect to other parties in the district vote and make it more likely for JRP voters to vote LDP in district votes.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      18      34.5%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       11.7%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.4%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        8       14.8%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         5.9%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       7       12.8%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.4%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.4%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.8%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%
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« Reply #560 on: July 10, 2022, 04:25:40 PM »

In the end, I think the electoral impact of Abe's assassination was to rob JRP off a seat in Nara, Kyoto and possibly Tokyo.
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xelas81
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« Reply #561 on: July 10, 2022, 04:28:06 PM »

KP only winning 6 seats is a major shock.
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jaichind
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« Reply #562 on: July 10, 2022, 04:30:10 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2022, 06:39:01 PM by jaichind »

I computed the district vote share

             Vote share   Seats won
LDP        38.70%           45
KP           7.11%             7
NPC         0.21%             0 (far right)
JFP          0.14%             0 (far right)
IPS          0.38%             0 (far right)
PP            3.79% !!         0 (far right)
HRP         0.25%             0 (far right but more anti-system than far right)
PNHK       2.08%             0
Ind-OH     0.61%             0 (乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) lean Right)
JRP         10.39%            4
pro-JRP     0.23%            0
OPPN Reb 0.91%             1 (winner likely to join LDP)
DPP          3.32%            2
pro-DPP    2.25%            1
OPPN        3.51%            3
CDP        15.47%          10
pro-CDP    0.67%            0
RS            1.86%            1
SDP          0.33%            0
JCP           6.94%            1
Right        0.25%            0
Left          0.23%            0
Ind.          0.33%            0 (include minor and trival parties)
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jaichind
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« Reply #563 on: July 10, 2022, 05:22:23 PM »



A quick glance at PP and PNHK PR vote by prefecture seem to indicate that PNHK is not correlated by region but PP is stronger in urban areas and LDP strongholds.
What are the regional profiles of a few of their best results?

Their very best performance is clearly very conservative rural LDP stronghold prefectures.  But they also do above average in urban prefectures where LDP is weak.  Their weakest prefectures are rural prefectures where the LDP is relatively weak.
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jaichind
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« Reply #564 on: July 10, 2022, 05:24:36 PM »

One of the reasons why the PR count is very slow again this year is most likely the significant number of PR votes with the word "民主" (Democratic) which will have to be pro-rated and distributed between CDP and DPP.  In 2021 that took a while and led to a last-minute jump in the votes DPP received.
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jaichind
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« Reply #565 on: July 10, 2022, 05:30:19 PM »

KP only winning 6 seats is a major shock.

Yeah. Their PR vote crashing below 12% must be sounding alarm bells in KP high command.   It seems it is in Greater Tokyo that KP lost most of its votes relative to 2021.  The old KP urban base is slowly declining election cycle by election cycle.  The KP's march to a rural Southern party continues.
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jaichind
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« Reply #566 on: July 10, 2022, 05:36:47 PM »

NHK projects that CDP wins the 7th PR seat driving LDP to only 18 PR seats.  18 seats for LDP were on the slightly lower end of LDP PR projections BEFORE the Abe assassination.  For LDP to only get 18 PR seats is a setback given the events of the last few days.
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jaichind
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« Reply #567 on: July 10, 2022, 05:40:40 PM »

NHK exit polls vs results

LDP    59-69                         -> 63
KP      10-14                         -> 13
CDP    13-20                         -> 17
JRP     10-15                         -> 12
DPP       2-5                          ->  5
JCP        3-6                          ->  4
SDP       0-1                           -> 1
RS         1-3                           -> 3
PNHK     0-1                           -> 1
Others    5-7 (ind and PP)        -> 6  (1 PP and 5 independents)

It seems DPP and RS are the parties that outperformed exit polls.
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jaichind
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« Reply #568 on: July 10, 2022, 06:06:19 PM »

In the end, I think the electoral impact of Abe's assassination was to rob JRP off a seat in Nara, Kyoto and possibly Tokyo.

I think 愛知(Aichi) is another candidate for JRP to have lost a seat it could have won.  Also if the LDP-KP PR vote is 46.2% after the Abe assassination I think without it the LDP would have lost 3-4 more 1- member districts without the assassination.
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PSOL
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« Reply #569 on: July 10, 2022, 06:12:50 PM »

Does Komeito do well among Burakamin?
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« Reply #570 on: July 10, 2022, 06:18:50 PM »

Weird that NHK has LDP and its allies at 146 and the Opposition at 102, while Asahi has it at 147-100.

Nonetheless, the results are very similar to the previous election with just 1-2 seats changing from both sides, but with Ishin making gains.
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jaichind
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« Reply #571 on: July 10, 2022, 06:41:23 PM »

Weird that NHK has LDP and its allies at 146 and the Opposition at 102, while Asahi has it at 147-100.

Nonetheless, the results are very similar to the previous election with just 1-2 seats changing from both sides, but with Ishin making gains.

I think it is how they count the independent that won 1 of the 2 seats in 静岡(Shizuoka).  The ex-DP incumbent declared her support for LDP after DP broke up but then in order to get CDP support for her re-election she said that she has not made up her mind on which party to caucus with if she won.  She did win re-election beating out a pro-DPP incumbent (elected via by-election).  One can categorize her as ruling bloc or opposition bloc.  I am 99% sure she will join LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #572 on: July 10, 2022, 08:06:57 PM »

All PR votes counted

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      18      34.4%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       11.7%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.4%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        8       14.8%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         6.0%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       7       12.8%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.4%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.4%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.8%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%

LDP-KP at 46.1% is much lower than any expectation BEFORE Abe's assassination let alone after.  DPP PP and RS all outperformed as did JRP.  What JRP got was reasonable before Abe's assassination but is for sure an outperformance after Abe's assassination. 

CDP KP JCP results are pretty bad.

One the topic of possible DPP "stealing" of CDP PR votes due to allocation of the vote for "民主" (Democratic) which would be pro-rated allocated between CDP and DPP it seems DPP getting votes from CDP is a good idea.  As it is CDP won 12.8% and 7 seats while DPP won 6.0% and 3 seats.  If CDP won 13.8% and DPP won 5.0% (moving 1% from DPP to CDP), CDP would still win 7 seats but DPP would only win 2 seats with LDP benefiting with an extra seat.  So in this situation, if DPP did "steal" some CDP PR votes it did not hurt CDP but instead hurt LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #573 on: July 10, 2022, 08:13:57 PM »

TBS exit poll on which party PP PR voters voted for in 2021

LDP    55%
KP      13%
CDP    13%
RS      13%
JCP       6%

It seems very little of the JRP PR vote went over to PP even though it would make the most sense that some PP PR voters would be ex-JRP PR voters. 
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« Reply #574 on: July 10, 2022, 08:16:38 PM »

Does Komeito do well among Burakamin?

Burakumin are actually an interest group for Heisei Kenkyūkai, one of the relatively moderate LDP factions. Komeito probably does okay with them as well, but not as well as it might otherwise.

Regarding the questions about the JCP, it is no longer classically "commie" but is still focused on material issues. Shii Kazuo waving around a rainbow flag or talking about Japan somehow needing more abortion of all things would come across as transparently absurd to just about everyone (although my understanding is the JCP does support LGBT rights). Policy-wise they're basically old-ish-school social democrats right now.
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