Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 24260 times)
Logical
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« Reply #475 on: July 10, 2022, 07:39:52 AM »

NHK calls Yamanashi for LDP
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jaichind
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« Reply #476 on: July 10, 2022, 07:42:31 AM »

NHK exit poll for 福井(Fukui).  It seems the JRP-backed LDP rebel did OK but not great.  The fact this seat is not called seems more about outperformance by the CDP-backed independent. 
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Logical
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« Reply #477 on: July 10, 2022, 07:43:17 AM »

NHK calls Oita for LDP and Nagano for CDP
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jaichind
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« Reply #478 on: July 10, 2022, 07:44:02 AM »

Exit poll for 岡山(Okayama).  Even without the endorsement of the KP, the LDP incumbent is winning by a landslide.  Of course the Abe assassination must have pushed up the LDP vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #479 on: July 10, 2022, 07:47:45 AM »

NHK calls Oita for LDP and Nagano for CDP


With that, I will be at worst 30 out of 32 for my 1- member seat calls.   The only two left that realistically are not known are 山形(Yamagata) which I called for DPP and 沖縄(Okinawa) which I called for LDP.    So far those respective candidates are ahead.   To be fair very few votes are in for 沖縄(Okinawa).  I am increasingly confident that  DPP will take 山形(Yamagata).  There is a real chance that OPPN incumbent will win in 沖縄(Okinawa).

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Logical
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« Reply #480 on: July 10, 2022, 07:48:26 AM »

NHK exit poll for 福井(Fukui).  It seems the JRP-backed LDP rebel did OK but not great.  The fact this seat is not called seems more about outperformance by the CDP-backed independent. 

The reason is actually quite simple. The LDP candidate is 80 and can barely speak (yes really! Just watch his speeches). I have no idea why the LDP insisted on running someone who clearly should be in a care home.
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jaichind
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« Reply #481 on: July 10, 2022, 07:50:12 AM »
« Edited: July 10, 2022, 07:53:31 AM by jaichind »

NHK exit poll for 福井(Fukui).  It seems the JRP-backed LDP rebel did OK but not great.  The fact this seat is not called seems more about outperformance by the CDP-backed independent.  

The reason is actually quite simple. The LDP candidate is 80 and can barely speak (yes really! Just watch his speeches). I have no idea why the LDP insisted on running someone who clearly should be in a care home.

Yeah, but I figured his organization plus the local LDP organization should be able to get a landslide victory even if it is just as a strawman at the top of the ticket.

As for why LDP nominated him, I have no idea.  I am pretty sure it is one of those if you go with a person from faction A, then faction B will rebel and vice versa so you got to go with the current incumbent to prevent a LDP civil war.
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jaichind
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« Reply #482 on: July 10, 2022, 07:55:27 AM »

北海道(Hokkaido) exit poll.  I am surprised how close this is.  I figured with the Abe assassination the entire JRP vote will shift over the LDP candidates.  I was half expecting the 2 LDP candidates to both finish in front of the 2 CDP candidates.
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« Reply #483 on: July 10, 2022, 08:00:00 AM »

How did the CDP win in Aomori?
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jaichind
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« Reply #484 on: July 10, 2022, 08:03:15 AM »

The PR vote count will have a heavy rural count bias.  So the initial count will favor LDP and to some extent CDP.  Over time LDP will go down while JRP JCP and RS go up.  CDP most likely stays flat the entire time.
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jaichind
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« Reply #485 on: July 10, 2022, 08:04:32 AM »


CDP incumbent is a member of a  very prominent political family with deep roots.  Her father was a big LDP kingpin in the prefecture in the 1970s-2000s who switched to DPJ late in his career in the 1990s.
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jaichind
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« Reply #486 on: July 10, 2022, 08:11:42 AM »

NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) shows a 3-way tie.  Asahi already called CDP to win 1 of the 2 seats so their exit poll must be different.

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Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #487 on: July 10, 2022, 08:14:06 AM »

NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) shows a 3-way tie.  Asahi already called CDP to win 1 of the 2 seats so their exit poll must be different.


The LDP is probably hoping the CDP wins here, right?
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Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #488 on: July 10, 2022, 08:15:24 AM »


CDP incumbent is a member of a  very prominent political family with deep roots.  Her father was a big LDP kingpin in the prefecture in the 1970s-2000s who switched to DPJ late in his career in the 1990s.
Ah, that would make sense.
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jaichind
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« Reply #489 on: July 10, 2022, 08:19:32 AM »

NHK exit poll for 京都(Kyoto) shows a 3-way tie.  Asahi already called CDP to win 1 of the 2 seats so their exit poll must be different.
The LDP is probably hoping the CDP wins here, right?

Most likely.  LDP's way toward victory over CDP is "a vote for CDP is a vote for JCP."  That argument does not work with JRP.  Of course, this logic also works against JRP.   When JRP asks for LDP votes the response would be "would not that let in CDP which is really JCP?"
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jaichind
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« Reply #490 on: July 10, 2022, 08:22:44 AM »

Asahi called 福井(Fukui) for LDP
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jaichind
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« Reply #491 on: July 10, 2022, 08:26:08 AM »

Asahi calls 山形(Yamagata) for DPP which expected to win.  My projection beat NHK exit polls.



I am now 31 out of 32 for 1- member district seats.  Only 沖縄(Okinawa) is left which I called for LDP.  Looking at the results there I think OPPN has a better chance of winning than LDP but it will be close.
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Logical
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« Reply #492 on: July 10, 2022, 08:37:00 AM »

Final Turnout Table
   
            (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
            2022    2021    2019    2016
Early   18.60   19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00    6.18    6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00  23.01   26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00  27.38   31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30  30.61   34.32   30.11   36.14

Final   52.16   55.97   48.80   54.69

Slightly higher than projected
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jaichind
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« Reply #493 on: July 10, 2022, 08:40:51 AM »

Another reason for LDP's underperformance in 福井(Fukui):  With 37% of the vote in PP has 7.1% of the vote versus 4.9% JCP.  I guess a lot of center-right voters choose to go with PP to protest the LDP putting forward a candidate that is most likely too old.
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jaichind
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« Reply #494 on: July 10, 2022, 08:46:23 AM »

Another reason for LDP's underperformance in 福井(Fukui):  With 37% of the vote in PP has 7.1% of the vote versus 4.9% JCP.  I guess a lot of center-right voters choose to go with PP to protest the LDP putting forward a candidate that is most likely too old.

With 61% of the vote in for 福井(Fukui), PP's vote share has surged to 9.0% !!!
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Logical
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« Reply #495 on: July 10, 2022, 09:07:36 AM »

Akita is a missed chance for the opposition. If they had gotten behind the DPP independent they would have taken it from LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #496 on: July 10, 2022, 09:08:49 AM »

Akita is a missed chance for the opposition. If they had gotten behind the DPP independent they would have taken it from LDP.

In theory.  But the pro-DPP independent is fairly right-wing in his views and I will find it hard to believe the more leftist part of CDP or JCP would have voted for him if it was him vs LDP.  They would have stayed home.
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jaichind
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« Reply #497 on: July 10, 2022, 09:12:13 AM »

With 66% of the vote in for 沖縄(Okinawa), it is LDP 47.8 OPPN 47.0 PP 3.3 PNHK 1.1 HRP 0.8.  It is coming down to the wire.  If the LDP end up losing they can reasonably blame PP for the loss.
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jaichind
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« Reply #498 on: July 10, 2022, 09:15:14 AM »

With 36% of the vote in Tokyo, it is

LDP    15.4 (called)
KP      12.8 (called)
CDP    12.3 (called)
JCP     11.8 (called)
LDP    10.4
RS      10.3
JRP      9.1
CDP     5.4
Ind.     5.4
TPFA    4.6

LDP RS and JRP as expected fighting for the last 2 seats. There were some tactical voting by the second CDP candidate and TPFA and Ind. candidate voters but it was not that complete.
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jaichind
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« Reply #499 on: July 10, 2022, 09:17:35 AM »

With 38% of the vote in 北海道(Hokkaido) it is

LDP       26.6 (called)
LDP        21.3
CDP        19.4
CDP        19.0
JCP          6.4
DPP          2.9
PP            2.2

LDP and 2 CDP candidates are in a near 3-way tie to fight for the last 2 seats.  The 2 CDP candidates doing better than I expected.
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