Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 23386 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #425 on: July 09, 2022, 10:03:28 AM »


Far-Right 参政党(PP) (Participation Party) seems to continue to gain steam.  The number of people that attend their rallies and watch online videos continues to rise rapidly.  There is growing speculation that they could be in a position to win a PR seat which is quite impressive they since have PNHK and HRP (which itself is Far-Right) as protest parties to peel off the anti-system vote as well as other Far-Right parties like 維新政党・新風 (IPS), 日本第一党(JFP) and 新党くにもり(NPC) in the fray to capture the Far-Right PR vote.

PP, sensing their momentum, seems to have gone all out and nominated candidates in pretty much all prefectures which says a lot about their fundraising capabilities.  

With this in mind, it would be useful to take a closer look at PP's platform.  

Their website is https://www.sanseito.jp/

and their logo is



First, PP or Participation Party is the name I made up for them.  They do not have an English name and in theory, their party name written in English is the phonetic version of 参政党 which is Sanseito.  参政党 means Participation Party which is why I prefer that for now until they ever come up with their official English name.

Their key platform points
a) Dramatic reduction of immigration and no voting rights for immigrants
b) Remilitariaton to be a part of an anti-PRC alliance in East Asia
c) Overturn the post-WWII international system with Japan being a full-blown equal to USA
d) Anti-Vax
e) Reduction of the power of banks with the promotion of digital currency and cryptos
f) Dramatic political decentralization with push for prefecture and even township rights (their "Do it yourself" slogan is part of this push)
g) Increased power of the Emperor (but not to pre-1945 levels)
h) Return Japanese culture to a pre-1945 era which an emphasis on pushing out foreign influence (especially removing the Western woke ideas)

If you watch their stump speeches it is clear that what is getting them to catch fire is the reduction of banking power, decentralization and their anti-Western woke stance.  Their success is a success of Right populism.  I can see them being a threat to JRP and could eat into the JRP vote.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #426 on: July 09, 2022, 10:23:39 AM »

So LDP = cente right to right wing
JRP = right wing
PP = far right
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jaichind
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« Reply #427 on: July 09, 2022, 10:29:16 AM »

A chart on competitive 1- member districts projections by media house.  It averages out to 27-5.  But that was before Abe's assassination when I had it 24-8.  Now I have it at 29-3 which actually matches Asahi's projection exactly for every seat.

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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #428 on: July 09, 2022, 10:39:00 AM »


Far-Right 参政党(PP) (Participation Party) seems to continue to gain steam.  The number of people that attend their rallies and watch online videos continues to rise rapidly.  There is growing speculation that they could be in a position to win a PR seat which is quite impressive they since have PNHK and HRP (which itself is Far-Right) as protest parties to peel off the anti-system vote as well as other Far-Right parties like 維新政党・新風 (IPS), 日本第一党(JFP) and 新党くにもり(NPC) in the fray to capture the Far-Right PR vote.

PP, sensing their momentum, seems to have gone all out and nominated candidates in pretty much all prefectures which says a lot about their fundraising capabilities.  

With this in mind, it would be useful to take a closer look at PP's platform.  

Their website is https://www.sanseito.jp/

and their logo is



First, PP or Participation Party is the name I made up for them.  They do not have an English name and in theory, their party name written in English is the phonetic version of 参政党 which is Sanseito.  参政党 means Participation Party which is why I prefer that for now until they ever come up with their official English name.

Their key platform points
a) Dramatic reduction of immigration and no voting rights for immigrants
b) Remilitariaton to be a part of an anti-PRC alliance in East Asia
c) Overturn the post-WWII international system with Japan being a full-blown equal to USA
d) Anti-Vax
e) Reduction of the power of banks with the promotion of digital currency and cryptos
f) Dramatic political decentralization with push for prefecture and even township rights (their "Do it yourself" slogan is part of this push)
g) Increased power of the Emperor (but not to pre-1945 levels)
h) Return Japanese culture to a pre-1945 era which an emphasis on pushing out foreign influence (especially removing the Western woke ideas)

If you watch their stump speeches it is clear that what is getting them to catch fire is the reduction of banking power, decentralization and their anti-Western woke stance.  Their success is a success of Right populism.  I can see them being a threat to JRP and could eat into the JRP vote.

Kind of funny that they emphasize eliminating Western influence on Japan but then have English (not just カタカナ言葉, but actual English) on their logo.
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jaichind
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« Reply #429 on: July 09, 2022, 10:48:45 AM »

Reading Japanese social media it seems the "secret" of the Unification Church and Abe being the "cause" of his assassination cannot be held back.  It seems tomorrow (election day) the police and MSM will have to go public with this.  

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6b0e33d621afef8e8a889b570426786d22ed69d3

Seems to be the first break in the dam. It talks about Abe and Unification Church.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #430 on: July 09, 2022, 11:39:55 AM »

Reading Japanese social media it seems the "secret" of the Unification Church and Abe being the "cause" of his assassination cannot be held back.  It seems tomorrow (election day) the police and MSM will have to go public with this.  

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6b0e33d621afef8e8a889b570426786d22ed69d3

Seems to be the first break in the dam. It talks about Abe and Unification Church.

Oh, the media will continue to lie. They'll refuse to expose the links between the Sanctuary Church, QAnon, the attempted coup in USA and Trump.
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jaichind
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« Reply #431 on: July 09, 2022, 12:09:35 PM »

Reading Japanese social media it seems the "secret" of the Unification Church and Abe being the "cause" of his assassination cannot be held back.  It seems tomorrow (election day) the police and MSM will have to go public with this.  

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/6b0e33d621afef8e8a889b570426786d22ed69d3

Seems to be the first break in the dam. It talks about Abe and Unification Church.

Oh, the media will continue to lie. They'll refuse to expose the links between the Sanctuary Church, QAnon, the attempted coup in USA and Trump.

Just to be clear the "link" is more about the perception from the suspect that Abe and the Unification Church are linked and not they are really linked.  The MSM holding it back is more about concerns over possible attacks on the Unificaiton Church versus any attempt to hide any "links"
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Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #432 on: July 09, 2022, 01:32:21 PM »

So LDP = cente right to right wing
JRP = right wing
PP = far right
Ultimately the LDP is pro-whatever they need to do to stay in power, first and foremost.
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PSOL
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« Reply #433 on: July 09, 2022, 01:42:01 PM »

What are the various theories floating out there aside from the DPP cope and the official story?
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jaichind
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« Reply #434 on: July 09, 2022, 01:55:33 PM »

What are the various theories floating out there aside from the DPP cope and the official story?

The most likely and reasonable theory is the Unification Church connection, namely suspect feels Abe is supportive and even connected to Unification Church so he went after Abe

Here is the General Secretary of PNHK attacking the Abe clan (Abe's grandfather who was also PM is claimed to be pro-Unification Church) for being linked to Unification Church back in late June.
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jaichind
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« Reply #435 on: July 09, 2022, 01:59:58 PM »

So LDP = cente right to right wing
JRP = right wing
PP = far right

JRP is more libertarian and has social views much more liberal than LDP.   But on decentralization JRP is much more "Right" and PP even more "Right."  Similar for Japanese nationalism but on that topic, LDP is a very large tent.
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jaichind
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« Reply #436 on: July 09, 2022, 02:01:42 PM »


Kind of funny that they emphasize eliminating Western influence on Japan but then have English (not just カタカナ言葉, but actual English) on their logo.

Their attack on modern Western culture is more focused on the "woke" aspects of it than on the fact it is foreign.  Western culture being foreign would not help of course.  I am sure they will have dramatically fewer objections to Western cultural influence in Japan if it is what it was in the 1940s and 1950s.
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Logical
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« Reply #437 on: July 09, 2022, 03:03:52 PM »

What are the various theories floating out there aside from the DPP cope and the official story?
Ozawa basically said Abe was asking for it. Of course, he would know as he was closely associated with moonies back when he was in the LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #438 on: July 09, 2022, 05:13:18 PM »

At 5 minutes before 7AM EST NHK will go live and at 7AM EST go broadcast its exit poll via

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/live/
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jaichind
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« Reply #439 on: July 09, 2022, 05:15:31 PM »

Usually

NHK: https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/sangiin/

and

Asahi: https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/saninsen/

Have the fastest counts/calls.  A superset of the two is usually the most up-to-date information
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Estrella
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« Reply #440 on: July 09, 2022, 07:14:25 PM »

What are the various theories floating out there aside from the DPP cope and the official story?
Ozawa basically said Abe was asking for it. Of course, he would know as he was closely associated with moonies back when he was in the LDP.

As in character as it is, I have to admit cheerleading for murder wasn't my Reasons To Hate Ozawa bingo card.
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warandwar
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« Reply #441 on: July 09, 2022, 08:35:44 PM »


Far-Right 参政党(PP) (Participation Party) seems to continue to gain steam.  The number of people that attend their rallies and watch online videos continues to rise rapidly.  There is growing speculation that they could be in a position to win a PR seat which is quite impressive they since have PNHK and HRP (which itself is Far-Right) as protest parties to peel off the anti-system vote as well as other Far-Right parties like 維新政党・新風 (IPS), 日本第一党(JFP) and 新党くにもり(NPC) in the fray to capture the Far-Right PR vote.

PP, sensing their momentum, seems to have gone all out and nominated candidates in pretty much all prefectures which says a lot about their fundraising capabilities.  

With this in mind, it would be useful to take a closer look at PP's platform.  

Their website is https://www.sanseito.jp/

and their logo is



First, PP or Participation Party is the name I made up for them.  They do not have an English name and in theory, their party name written in English is the phonetic version of 参政党 which is Sanseito.  参政党 means Participation Party which is why I prefer that for now until they ever come up with their official English name.

Their key platform points
a) Dramatic reduction of immigration and no voting rights for immigrants
b) Remilitariaton to be a part of an anti-PRC alliance in East Asia
c) Overturn the post-WWII international system with Japan being a full-blown equal to USA
d) Anti-Vax
e) Reduction of the power of banks with the promotion of digital currency and cryptos
f) Dramatic political decentralization with push for prefecture and even township rights (their "Do it yourself" slogan is part of this push)
g) Increased power of the Emperor (but not to pre-1945 levels)
h) Return Japanese culture to a pre-1945 era which an emphasis on pushing out foreign influence (especially removing the Western woke ideas)

If you watch their stump speeches it is clear that what is getting them to catch fire is the reduction of banking power, decentralization and their anti-Western woke stance.  Their success is a success of Right populism.  I can see them being a threat to JRP and could eat into the JRP vote.

Kind of funny that they emphasize eliminating Western influence on Japan but then have English (not just カタカナ言葉, but actual English) on their logo.
Japan pre-1945 notable for having no marks of Western influence...
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Lach
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« Reply #442 on: July 09, 2022, 11:30:50 PM »

11AM turnout: 10.44% (+0.74% on 2019)
Turnout also seems to be going up in Kanto and Kyushu, but faltering in Tokai and Tohoku.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #443 on: July 10, 2022, 12:01:04 AM »

Iím obsessed with this. Iím gonna go full true crime.
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Logical
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« Reply #444 on: July 10, 2022, 01:19:14 AM »


Far-Right 参政党(PP) (Participation Party) seems to continue to gain steam.  The number of people that attend their rallies and watch online videos continues to rise rapidly.  There is growing speculation that they could be in a position to win a PR seat which is quite impressive they since have PNHK and HRP (which itself is Far-Right) as protest parties to peel off the anti-system vote as well as other Far-Right parties like 維新政党・新風 (IPS), 日本第一党(JFP) and 新党くにもり(NPC) in the fray to capture the Far-Right PR vote.

PP, sensing their momentum, seems to have gone all out and nominated candidates in pretty much all prefectures which says a lot about their fundraising capabilities.  

With this in mind, it would be useful to take a closer look at PP's platform.  

Their website is https://www.sanseito.jp/

and their logo is



First, PP or Participation Party is the name I made up for them.  They do not have an English name and in theory, their party name written in English is the phonetic version of 参政党 which is Sanseito.  参政党 means Participation Party which is why I prefer that for now until they ever come up with their official English name.

Their key platform points
a) Dramatic reduction of immigration and no voting rights for immigrants
b) Remilitariaton to be a part of an anti-PRC alliance in East Asia
c) Overturn the post-WWII international system with Japan being a full-blown equal to USA
d) Anti-Vax
e) Reduction of the power of banks with the promotion of digital currency and cryptos
f) Dramatic political decentralization with push for prefecture and even township rights (their "Do it yourself" slogan is part of this push)
g) Increased power of the Emperor (but not to pre-1945 levels)
h) Return Japanese culture to a pre-1945 era which an emphasis on pushing out foreign influence (especially removing the Western woke ideas)

If you watch their stump speeches it is clear that what is getting them to catch fire is the reduction of banking power, decentralization and their anti-Western woke stance.  Their success is a success of Right populism.  I can see them being a threat to JRP and could eat into the JRP vote.

Kind of funny that they emphasize eliminating Western influence on Japan but then have English (not just カタカナ言葉, but actual English) on their logo.
Japan pre-1945 notable for having no marks of Western influence...

History's greatest mistake: Allowing a westernizing Japan to model itself after the British Empire.
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Logical
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« Reply #445 on: July 10, 2022, 02:41:24 AM »

Turnout Chart
     
          (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
          2022    2021    2019     2016
Early    TBC    19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00   6.18     6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00             26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00             31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30             34.32   30.11   36.14

Final               55.97   48.80   54.69
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FredLindq
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« Reply #446 on: July 10, 2022, 02:43:01 AM »

No increase in turnout then?!
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jaichind
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« Reply #447 on: July 10, 2022, 03:20:10 AM »

Turnout Chart
     
          (UH)     (LH)     (UH)     (UH)
          2022    2021    2019     2016
Early    TBC    19.49   16.01   15.05
10 00   6.18     6.32     5.65     7.92
11 00  10.44   11.32    9.70    13.22
14 00  18.79   21.49   18.02   22.54
16 00             26.78   22.72   27.25
18 00             31.64   27.30   32.49
19 30             34.32   30.11   36.14

Final               55.97   48.80   54.69

The early vote came in at 18.6 so it seems we are looking at a drop in turnout relative to 2021, something like 51-52.  This surprising.  This is positive for JCP SDP and KP.  SDP might make it on these numbers.
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jaichind
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« Reply #448 on: July 10, 2022, 03:22:11 AM »

Change in turnout at 2pm by prefecture relative to 2019.  Note this does not take into account the early vote which is up 2.6% when compared to 2019.  Similar pattern to 2021.  Urban up, rural down.
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jaichind
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« Reply #449 on: July 10, 2022, 03:29:10 AM »

Unlike lower house elections one can vote for a candidate in the PR section out of a party list.  This actually makes it harder to count PR votes than in lower house elections.  As a result, almost all the district votes will be counted and most races called before real PR vote counting gets going.
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