Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 28675 times)
Logical
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« Reply #525 on: July 10, 2022, 11:23:37 AM »

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #526 on: July 10, 2022, 11:25:49 AM »

Why didn't the Ibaraki LDP run two candidates? They clearly have the votes to sweep.
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jaichind
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« Reply #527 on: July 10, 2022, 11:26:07 AM »

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.
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Logical
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« Reply #528 on: July 10, 2022, 11:28:24 AM »

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
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jaichind
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« Reply #529 on: July 10, 2022, 11:30:27 AM »

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.

I will wait on that.  SDP vote has become very rural heavy last few election cycles.  When the urban vote comes in they might fall below 1.8%.  Still, I guess the going all woke must be a feature to capture some of the urban youth votes from CDP.  Still, I guess they know what they are doing
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PSOL
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« Reply #530 on: July 10, 2022, 11:31:01 AM »

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.
Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
What did they do differently on the campaign?
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jaichind
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« Reply #531 on: July 10, 2022, 11:33:23 AM »


Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
What did they do differently on the campaign?

They pretty much ran on the woke agenda, especially LGBT themes.  I thought it was a desperate move that will not work.  It seems it did.
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PSOL
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« Reply #532 on: July 10, 2022, 11:34:34 AM »


Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
What did they do differently on the campaign?

They pretty much ran on the woke agenda, especially LGBT themes.  I thought it was a desperate move that will not work.  It seems it did.
Outside of being pro-gay, what else did they do?
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Logical
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« Reply #533 on: July 10, 2022, 11:35:56 AM »

Fake Yamamoto Taro on the NHK party list currently has 3816 votes lol. Will be interesting to see how many he votes he manages to steal by the end.

PNHK is the gimmick party.  I cannot believe it's going to work and they might win a PR seat.  This is amazing given how PP ate up the anti-system oxygen.
Well the voters for PP are not anti-system voters but disaffected right wing voters who are angry at China/Inflation. PNHK votes are there because it entertains people for them to keep going and go crazy in the Diet, like how the two-tailed dog party did well in Hungary from people being disaffected.

It looks like PNHK is having fun campaigning, which is half the battle.

Asahi has SDP winning a PR seat! Going full culture warrior works for once.
What did they do differently on the campaign?

Abandoned the old workers party image; went full rainbows, abortion, LGBT+ rights. Their party list is filled with activists instead of union representatives now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #534 on: July 10, 2022, 11:43:05 AM »

Asahi also calls a PR seat for PNHK.  The pressure grows on both CDP and KP.  One of the two will end up with just 6 PR seats.
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Logical
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« Reply #535 on: July 10, 2022, 12:00:30 PM »

NHK has also called a seat for NHK Party. (lol)
Asahi calls a second seat for RS.
If Komeito's numbers aren't improving soon I think they will lose their 7th seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #536 on: July 10, 2022, 12:03:32 PM »

NHK has also called a seat for NHK Party. (lol)
Asahi calls a second seat for RS.

Well, NHK had already experienced that in 2019.  Of course, since PNHK was a new party NHK in 2019 called 1 PR seat for "Other".  Now they have to call it for PNHK
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jaichind
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« Reply #537 on: July 10, 2022, 12:05:59 PM »

With 30% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are 

Greater Tokyo and Greater Osaka areas are undercounted.  LDP and CDP will take a hit when they do. JRP will gain a lot and JCP will gain some.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      21      38.6%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       12.4%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.0%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.1%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        7       12.7%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       2         5.0%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.5%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.1%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.3%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%
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jaichind
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« Reply #538 on: July 10, 2022, 12:14:33 PM »

Why didn't the Ibaraki LDP run two candidates? They clearly have the votes to sweep.

But they did not know that for sure.  Also just like 広島(Hiroshima) in 2019 having two candidates leads to problems on which one to focus on if it seems LDP cannot win both.  This tends to exacerbate tensions with various factions within the prefectures.
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jaichind
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« Reply #539 on: July 10, 2022, 12:17:27 PM »

The PR section is an utter disaster for CDP.  It will not surprise me that this leads to CDP re-thinking what the party is all about and should it even exist in its current form.
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jaichind
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« Reply #540 on: July 10, 2022, 12:19:53 PM »

富山(Toyama) results

LDP      68.8
JRP        9.8
CDP       9.2
JCP        6.0
PP          4.8
PNHK     1.4

Every opposition party is below 10% !!!  The CDP vote share is not a total surprise but the JRP vote share is.  The Abe assassination must have shifted part of the JRP vote to LDP.

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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #541 on: July 10, 2022, 12:26:44 PM »

The PR section is an utter disaster for CDP.  It will not surprise me that this leads to CDP re-thinking what the party is all about and should it even exist in its current form.
They tried to cosy up with the JCP to take down the LDP. This failed.
They spurned the JCP and tried to reach out to other anti-LDP forces. This time, they also failed.
What an unenviable situation.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #542 on: July 10, 2022, 12:29:34 PM »

Great result, thank you Japan!
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jaichind
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« Reply #543 on: July 10, 2022, 12:35:42 PM »

With 40% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

JRP and anti-system parties continue to gain ground and LDP continues to lose ground as more urban votes come in.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      21      37.2%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       12.3%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.2%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.2%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        7       13.9%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       2         5.2%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       6       12.3%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.1%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.4%                  4      7.5%           
Others              0.9%                          1.0%
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #544 on: July 10, 2022, 01:28:00 PM »

NHK seems to be projecting an LDP majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #545 on: July 10, 2022, 01:33:13 PM »

With 62% of the PR vote in, the results plus implied seat allocation are

LDP lost more ground mostly to JRP but also to DPP as well.  CDP regained a bit of ground and got to 7 seats.  KP at 12.1% and 6 seats is pretty bad for then.  I think the numbers will not change that much from here.   LDP-KP only at 48% is a shock and shows how much PP and PNHK gained from disgruntled LDP voters on the PR slate as well.

                                                  My prediction
            PR   Vote share              PR  vote share       
LDP      19      35.9%                 21     39.0%         
KP         6       12.1%                  7     12.5%             
PP         1         3.3%                  1      2.0%         
PNHK     1         2.2%                  0      1.0%           
JRP        7       14.3%                  7    14.0%             
DPP       3         5.6%                  3      5.5%         
CDP       7       12.6%                  7    13.5%                             
RS         2         4.2%                  1      3.5%           
SDP       1         2.3%                  0      1.5%
JCP        3         6.5%                  4      7.5%           
Others              1.0%                          1.0%
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #546 on: July 10, 2022, 01:35:36 PM »

Fake Taro Yamamoto has 18,700 or so votes thus far.
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jaichind
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« Reply #547 on: July 10, 2022, 01:42:00 PM »

Amazing that the LDP-KP PR vote share is down to 47.7% which is only a bit above 2021 results.  Shows how badly they were going to get hit if the Abe assassination did not take place.
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Logical
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« Reply #548 on: July 10, 2022, 02:06:47 PM »

LDP's share of the PR vote is now below 2019 (35.37%)
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PSOL
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« Reply #549 on: July 10, 2022, 02:13:49 PM »

Amazing that the LDP-KP PR vote share is down to 47.7% which is only a bit above 2021 results.  Shows how badly they were going to get hit if the Abe assassination did not take place.
They were incredibly lucky everything went as planned.
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