Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[dead0man]

F16s have been shooting down Mig21s for decades.  Lets keep it going.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1659146620380893186?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

US officials leak to CNN (yet again!) that the Patriot systems in Ukrainian service have downed at least one manned Russian aircraft well behind enemy lines.

There have been several claims, but the only clear downings since their arrival were those of the 2 jets and 2-3 helicopters near Bryansk. I would never put it past the MIC to overstate the capabilities and record of this particular air defence system, but that incident was notable and without obvious explanation. It seems credible and, if true, could cause problems for the glide bomb/short-range missile missions that the Russian air force is carrying out.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1659316290710827008?s=12
Sounds like Ukraine is getting ready to leave the last part of Bakhmut in a few days. Would of loved if they stayed long enough for the flanking attacks to reach the high ground so Russia would have to pull out before even getting to declare a (pyrrhic) victory but the defenders did their job 🙏.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/noelreports/status/1659276145324355596?s=12
Biden has been overall great in getting aid to Ukraine but this has been a black mark on the resume so far. Give them the F16s dammit

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1659319214019059716?s=12
Oh hey freakin finally

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1659308318920171520

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1659119653224955905?s=20

[NOVA Green]

The damaged Patriot Missile system in Kyiv is back up and running folks.... nothing to see here people.

The Patriot air-defense system damaged in Ukraine on Tuesday by a Russian strike has been fixed and is operational, Deputy Pentagon Spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said Thursday. Singh added that the United States provided “some assistance” on the repair of the system, but declined to offer additional detail. A U.S. defense official had earlier said the system suffered an indirect hit from Russian fire in the Kyiv region

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/18/russia-ukraine-war-news/

[NOVA Green]

Since Phillips P. OBrien has been retreating from Twitter a bit and moving to alternative venues, such as his substack, which allow much longer articles than traditional Twitter posts, thought it might be interesting to post a few words from his update earlier today.

No paywall currently required, although you might need to subscribe to receive updates via your personal email addresses.

For now will just focus on the "When", since to attempt to summarize Phillip's thought on the "When, Where, and How" is not possible within the limited quoting parameters available. (You will simply need to read his article for perspectives on the "Where & How".

There is so much being hypothesized about the Ukrainian counteroffensive that it almost makes the head swim.

The key thing, of course, is that nobody knows what the Ukrainians will do and when. With that in mind, I thought I might offer some thoughts, much of which came out of my trip to Ukraine, of what is governing Ukrainian thinking. Basically they boil down to three questions

When Might Ukraine Strike?

Where Might Ukraine Strike?

How Might Ukraine Strike?

For a while now I’ve been saying that Ukraine is in no rush to launch this counter-offensive, and I still hold to that. It could still be weeks away. That is because the Ukrainians have a number of considerations. The first is that this is probably a one-shot operation for the whole Spring-Summer-Fall.

They will almost certainly use up a considerable amount of the equipment and ammunition that they have put aside for the operation and therefore going again in 2023 would be exceedingly difficult.

Just as important, the Russians have little prospect, at least in the next few weeks and months, of generating a large number of new forces. Instead of sensibly building up and preparing defensive forces with the new army that Russia raised last Fall, many of their forces were drip-fed into battles up and down the Donbas. This was a major strategic mistake, which has left the Russian army with no easy option for reinforcement.

The Ukrainians can keep doing what they are doing, attrit Russian forces down, weakening the ability of Russia to hold its vast defensive line, knowing that it will be difficult in the short term for Russia to strengthen much. As such if you are Ukraine, you should only attack when you feel they have reached a moment which provides the optimum chance of success.

Finally, the longer Ukraine waits, the better trained their attack troops will be and the more equipment they will have at their disposal.

So add it altogether—the fact that this is a one shot deal, the fact that the Russians don’t seem to be generating a major new army quickly, and the fact that the Ukrainians will want to train more—and you have the reason why they are not rushing. I originally estimated that the counteroffensive would start in the second half of May (ie around now). It might even be later.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-the-ukrainian-counteroffensive?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf

[Hindsight was 2020]

OBrien always has great takes on the conflict and I agree that Ukraine is now probably going to wait until June now to attack. Especially now that they have these new Storm Shadow to use to wreck Russian logistics for the next few weeks

[Pericles]

OBrien always has great takes on the conflict and I agree that Ukraine is now probably going to wait until June now to attack. Especially now that they have these new Storm Shadow to use to wreck Russian logistics for the next few weeks

Late June is a sensitive period for Russia historically.

[Hindsight was 2020]

OBrien always has great takes on the conflict and I agree that Ukraine is now probably going to wait until June now to attack. Especially now that they have these new Storm Shadow to use to wreck Russian logistics for the next few weeks

Late June is a sensitive period for Russia historically.

Well it might become an even more sensitive time in the future lol
Edit: Also tbf Ukraine and Belarus endured the worst of Barbarossa

[Pericles]

OBrien always has great takes on the conflict and I agree that Ukraine is now probably going to wait until June now to attack. Especially now that they have these new Storm Shadow to use to wreck Russian logistics for the next few weeks

Late June is a sensitive period for Russia historically.

Well it might become an even more sensitive time in the future lol
Edit: Also tbf Ukraine and Belarus endured the worst of Barbarossa

Yeah Zelensky presumably wants has crossed out 22 June as an option.

By the way, Russia is so obnoxious for taking credit for the Soviet victory in WW2, when Ukraine sacrificed even more for it. The Russian SSR couldn't have won it on their own, arguably the entire USSR couldn't have.

[The Mikado]

Yeah Zelensky presumably wants has crossed out 22 June as an option.

Of course, given how close Ukraine's come to the USA, the UK, and France, June 6th might be a good option to launch a major offensive...

[Storr]

I wonder if Zelensky being in or out of the country matters for or signals the timing of the offensive.
If anything, I could see Ukraine trying to surprise the Russians by beginning the offensive while Zelensky is outside of the country. 

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1659416982007980034?s=20

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1658867809504329733?s=20

#jaichindinshambles

[Badger]

Want to know why Ukraine is losing? It hasn't taken back a single city, village or settlement in half a year. Not a single one in 2023.

Silence, Putin side piece!

[Storr]

When a tank shows up at your gas station:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1659402179562594304?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hilarious that people in this thread are actually claiming a mere -2% contraction in the Russian economy is game-changing.
Premature, much?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Biden admin is warming up to the idea of a frozen conflict most likely happening, for years or even decades.

You are projecting in the style of Russian propaganda, since a frozen conflict for years or even decades is literally every war started by Putin. Frozen conflict is Putin's M.O.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Well per the NYT, some good news. The oil price cap directed at Russia has had real bite.

"Russia’s oil revenues in March were down 43 percent from a year earlier, the International Energy Agency reported last month, even though its total export sales volume had grown. This week, the agency reported that Russian revenues had rebounded slightly but were still down 27 percent from a year ago. The government’s tax receipts from the oil and gas sectors were down by nearly two-thirds from a year ago."

Moreover, tax revenues from the oil sector are way down, and Russia is having to also divert money from the war effort to try to finance its own oil trade delivery  apparatus - ships, insurance and so forth.

The mission to BK Russia is alive and well, if not the yet the beginning of the end, at least per Winston Churchill the end of the beginning. Keep the squeeze on baby, and bleed them dry.

Technically true but we have to consider base effects



What took place was that in early 2022 Russia got a massive surge in revenue relative to 2021 mostly due to a surge in world energy prices.  2023 is reverting to 2021 levels due to a clear decline in overall world economic fortunes

This shows that while reaping the benefits of 2021 in 2022 everything was fine for Russia, as in 2021. In 2023, Russia is reaping the benefits of 2022, and we see that in 2022 Russia, for some reason unknown to us, decided to suddenly jump out of the window.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1659537529253556224?s=12

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Russian occupied Crimea, another train goes off the tracks...

A train derailment Thursday near the Russian-occupied city of Simferopol has blocked the only rail route into the port of Sevastopol, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based, Britain’s Defense Ministry said Friday. The incident will disrupt deliveries of supplies and potentially weapons, according to the ministry’s daily update.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/19/russia-ukraine-war-news-zelensky/

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1659537529253556224?s=12

Bakhmut Bob-Russia still has T-90 tanks!

[Torie]

Hilarious that people in this thread are actually claiming a mere -2% contraction in the Russian economy is game-changing.
Premature, much?

Perhaps the issue of Putin's ability to finance his war of conquest is more complex than one statistical estimate of questionable accuracy? For example, running the war is cheaper as one draws down on munitions, as opposed to having to purchase or fabricate more, or use more expensive stuff as the microchip squeeze takes a greater toll. Perhaps once Putin's financial reserves are exhausted, to keep the war going will require a more severe drop in the Russian standard of living, particularly among urban elites who Putin cossets because they pose a greater threat to him. Perhaps his war will become more costly as he loses control of the air. Biden finally seems to have received the memo that Ukraine getting air superiority over its skies is job one. Biden has the slows but at least he keeps moving in the right direction.* Once that happens, this particular layperson has the feeling that the calendar date of Putin's defeat and exit from the stage can be moved up substantially on the calendar. Perhaps.

A weather vane of the degree of Putin's desperation will be when he starts rattling his nukes again, which his pal Xi told Putin he found most discommoding. That raises another perhaps. Perhaps Xi will tire of the war, even if it reduces his fossil fuel bill a bit as a bottom feeding purchaser.

*Maybe Biden's gait is becoming more brisk now because he thinks it a good idea to secure Putin's defeat before Nov 2024, and airmail Putin's head to Mar-a-Lago as an early Trump Xmas present.