Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Lula DID end up snubbing Zelensky after all 🙄. Seriously even Modi who’s one of Putin’s worst enablers found time to sit down.

[pppolitics]

Zelensky confirmed the loss of Bakhmut. The bloodiest battle of the 21st Century (so far) has been won by Russia.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1660173275022999552?cxt=HHwWgIC-tYazj4ou...

AFU would rather surround Bakhmut than be inside Bakhmut.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://ohfnews.com/2023/05/21/incompatibilidade-de-agendas-frustra-encontro-entre-lula-e-zelensky-no-g7/

Lula offers incompatible schedule in order to avoid meeting Zelensky at G7

It would be a loss of time tbh if everyone repeated the same talking points they have until now. Ukraine has to change its opening for dialogue and understand that for a compromise that leads to a ceasefire to happen, it just won’t have everything it wants.

The Crimea claim (which goes back to 2014, not 2022 when the war started) is completely unreasonable for example. It’s not a matter of what is fair or not, but what is actually possible instead of idealistic talk. If Ukraine is on a trend of very slowly losing territory until now with all the help from the West, they are unlikely to recover already occupied territory, just imagine 2014 ones.

Even if you somehow tire the Russians, what is most likely to happen is for a ceasefire to happen and the conflict to “stop” with the borders that you see today. Russia has way more people than Ukraine. If going by a warhawk path, Ukraine needed actual manpower from the West alongside harsher technology and that will not happen because it’s on the interest if some for this to be a long-term war. So by a peaceful path, you need to make some compromises.

The PRC lost to Vietnam, surpassing it in terms of population more times than Russia relative to Ukraine. Ukraine has knocked Russia out of almost all territories captured since 2022, and as a result, Syrian butchers with the entire mobilized Russian army have achieved much, muuuch less than Girkin's tractor drivers in 2014-2015. Your arguments don't withstand the slightest scrutiny.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Btw not to shock anyone but the Zaluzhny is dead conspiracy our resident Putin simps were pushing suffered a slight setback with Zaluzhny doing two video link appearances the past two days for a International Conference and then addressing a graduating class in Odessa
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qXCkzVA0hBY
https://politros.com/24066061-glavkom_vsu_zaluzhnii_vpervie_poyavilsya_v_teleefire_posle_soobschenii_o_tyazhelom_ranenii

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1660304334553268226?s=20

[Virginiá]

One thing I can't help but notice is some people (cough) in this thread are quick to post pro-Russian news/conspiracy theories just as they insult other posters for a seemingly polar opposite quickness to post pro-Ukrainian stuff. One user might sit here researching the validity of a Ukrainian claim until they find something to debunk it, but when a Russian claim is made, boy, just send that straight through.

Funny how that works.

[Virginiá]

New aid package from US:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1660229770062319617

Someone also did some comparison of the *total* equipment numbers sent that US periodically releases, and that's become the other go-to way to determine how much of what is being sent, and apparently this one includes 100 of the M113 armored medevac variant, and at least 50,000 105mm arti shells.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1660352185543143426

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1660381557549400065?s=20

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660389145586401284?s=20

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1660381557549400065?s=20

Shoot-downs over the Black Sea have happened but these claims are generally much less falsifiable because Davy Jones claims the wreckage.

[Storr]

Genocide is not a new thing for Russia:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1660366439864315910?s=20

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1660290541152612352?s=20

[Storr]

Blackout in Simferopol:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1660390152294879233?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Are there really 100k Russian casualties in Bakhmut or did Biden just mispeak?

https://[b]https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1660252019225948160?s=20[/...

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile my mate Phillips OBrien provides a weekend update to his substack (No Paywall):

That update was built around what looked to be a decisive change in Biden administration support for Ukraine, with the beginning of a plan to provide Ukraine with F-16s. Even when I wrote this yesterday, there was some skepticism, with people saying—is this real? All that the US was talking about then was training, so did it really mean that F-16s would end up in Ukraine’s hands?

Today, I think we can say—these final doubts should be answered. Ukraine is getting F-16s, and not only that, the administration is significantly firming up its position on Ukraine having the right to take back all of its territory.

We must start with this extraordinary comment by the President himself. When asked by a reported at the G7 whether sending F-16s to Ukraine would be a colossal risk (which was what the Russian government had stated in a way to try and keep the aircraft from being delivered) the president responded with a dismissive—”It is for them."

It is really hard to underrate what the president is doing here. He is not only making it clear that Ukraine will get F-16s, he is basically belittling Russian threats. The Russians have been, as usual, making their nuclear threats about aid to Ukraine, and they raised their rhetoric up a notch yesterday when the F-16 announcement was made.

So that alone would be enough to mark a major change. However, that was not all. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who had been reported to be the most escalation-averse member of the administration, at exactly the same time came out with a statement to CNN that the Ukrainians are more than able to attack Crimea with weapons the US has provided it.

What makes this important is the clarity of the position, and the fact that it is Sullivan making it. As late as February/March the rhetoric coming out of Washington was very skeptical on Ukraine retaking Crimea, and it was regularly floated that Crimea was a red-line for Putin.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-29-update?r=1tgexa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

[CanadianDemocrat]

Genocide is not a new thing for Russia:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1660366439864315910?s=20
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1660290541152612352?s=20

Russia is still a imperialist, terrorist and genocidal state, even 200 years after the Circassian genocide. It's disgusting how there are still 'anti imperialist' pro Russian tankies still existing.

[The Mikado]

Are there really 100k Russian casualties in Bakhmut or did Biden just mispeak?

https://[b]https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1660252019225948160?s=20[/...

Who the hell knows, but:

A. (I know YOU know this, but just stating the obvious) Wounded count as casualties. If you take estimates that Russians lost 20,000ish dead in Bakhmut (oof), 100k casualties starts sounding pretty reasonable.

B. More importantly, one of the reasons the Russians use auxiliaries like the LNR/DNR forces or, in this case, Wagner is that their deaths are sort of "off the books." Dead Wagner troops were never officially Russian soldiers and aren't getting government death benefits and such. I'm sure that given that the DNR territorial forces especially and now Wagner have both been absolutely pounded in this war that between them Russia's suffered like 30-50k deaths that "don't count" in the eyes of the Putin regime as real KIA because they're auxiliaries, not proper regular Russian soldiers.

[NOVA Green]

Are there really 100k Russian casualties in Bakhmut or did Biden just mispeak?

https://[b]https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1660252019225948160?s=20[/...

Who the hell knows, but:

A. (I know YOU know this, but just stating the obvious) Wounded count as casualties. If you take estimates that Russians lost 20,000ish dead in Bakhmut (oof), 100k casualties starts sounding pretty reasonable.

B. More importantly, one of the reasons the Russians use auxiliaries like the LNR/DNR forces or, in this case, Wagner is that their deaths are sort of "off the books." Dead Wagner troops were never officially Russian soldiers and aren't getting government death benefits and such. I'm sure that given that the DNR territorial forces especially and now Wagner have both been absolutely pounded in this war that between them Russia's suffered like 30-50k deaths that "don't count" in the eyes of the Putin regime as real KIA because they're auxiliaries, not proper regular Russian soldiers.

So Grok what you are saying, and yes KIA/WIA/MIA basically would be considered casualties by any standard military sense.

It is absolutely true that "Paramilitary" units fighting on the side of the Russians including the Mercs of the Wagner Group, not to mention the LNR/DNR units should be included within total Russian casualty counts.

Regardless the 100k number still seems a bit high, possibly including Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties, which tend to float on the high side.

Sure, get it that there are substantive advantages for claims of major Russian casualties over the Battle of Bakhmut, and that Russian total casualties are massive in just one particular battle.

Regardless, Ukraine still has something like (9) BTGs in reserve with some of the top gear, crash courses in NATO combined arms and specific training involving the whole combo of European and US kit which Ukraine is receiving.

There is a very very long front line with Russia having various layers of defensive trench formations and mines designed to prevent potential UKR breaktouts.

Bakhmut might ultimately be a bit of a distraction, but yet has become a massive pool of Russian military assets which otherwise would have been available to  defend against the upcoming Ukrainian Spring>Summer>Fall offensive season.

Doesn't necessarily matter the exact number of Russian casualties in Bakhmut, since unless Putin does another general mobilization, there simply won't be enough cannon fodder left.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Meanwhile my mate Phillips OBrien provides a weekend update to his substack (No Paywall):

That update was built around what looked to be a decisive change in Biden administration support for Ukraine, with the beginning of a plan to provide Ukraine with F-16s. Even when I wrote this yesterday, there was some skepticism, with people saying—is this real? All that the US was talking about then was training, so did it really mean that F-16s would end up in Ukraine’s hands?

Today, I think we can say—these final doubts should be answered. Ukraine is getting F-16s, and not only that, the administration is significantly firming up its position on Ukraine having the right to take back all of its territory.

We must start with this extraordinary comment by the President himself. When asked by a reported at the G7 whether sending F-16s to Ukraine would be a colossal risk (which was what the Russian government had stated in a way to try and keep the aircraft from being delivered) the president responded with a dismissive—”It is for them."

It is really hard to underrate what the president is doing here. He is not only making it clear that Ukraine will get F-16s, he is basically belittling Russian threats. The Russians have been, as usual, making their nuclear threats about aid to Ukraine, and they raised their rhetoric up a notch yesterday when the F-16 announcement was made.

So that alone would be enough to mark a major change. However, that was not all. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who had been reported to be the most escalation-averse member of the administration, at exactly the same time came out with a statement to CNN that the Ukrainians are more than able to attack Crimea with weapons the US has provided it.

What makes this important is the clarity of the position, and the fact that it is Sullivan making it. As late as February/March the rhetoric coming out of Washington was very skeptical on Ukraine retaking Crimea, and it was regularly floated that Crimea was a red-line for Putin.

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-29-update?r=1tgexa&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

Phillip is a great read as always. Honestly part I think the problem was with US assessments of retaking Crimea was assessing actually storming and fighting in Crimea when more and more analysts have been pointing out the key to retaking Crimea is simply get to Melitopol and use the long range missiles to blow up the bridge. Thus, isolating Crimea and forcing Russia to give it up at the negotiating table as holding would be militarily untenable

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in before Atlas Putin simps (Name are redacted to protect the innocent and all of that jolly good stuff....

NYT has just posted an interesting article, which totally jives with recent posts I have made on the topic:

Russia’s claim of victory in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut suggests that the brutal urban combat that marked the deadliest battle of its war in Ukraine might be over. But what comes next is far from clear.

While Moscow is trumpeting a “Mission Accomplished” moment in its war, Ukraine — even as it insists Bakhmut has not completely fallen — sees an opening to seize the initiative from the city’s outskirts if Russian forces are no longer pressing forward inside the city’s center.

Russia’s capture of Bakhmut would be a powerful symbolic success for Moscow. It would represent the first Ukrainian city it has seized since Lysychansk last summer, and be a setback for Kyiv, which expended precious ammunition and sent some of its most capable forces to try to thwart Russia’s devastating monthslong assault on the city. Thousands of troops from both sides are believed to have been killed in nearly a year of intense fighting there.

Now that Russia has seemingly taken the city, it must hold it.

Ukraine, however, plans to make that proposition difficult by raining artillery on Russian forces occupying Bakhmut, according to Ukrainian officials. Military analysts say that if Moscow continues to send reinforcements to defend the city, that could weaken Russian forces’ ability to hold off a broader counteroffensive that Ukraine says it is about to begin.

A British defense intelligence assessment on Saturday said Moscow had redeployed “up to several battalions to reinforce” its forces in Bakhmut, calling the deployment “a notable commitment” for Russia’s heavily stretched combat forces in Ukraine.

Ukraine still holds slivers of the city, including the area around what has become a landmark of Ukraine’s last redoubt: a destroyed sculpture of a Soviet MiG fighter jet, according to multiple military personnel involved in defending the position, which Russian forces continue to contest.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/21/world/europe/russia-bakhmut-battle-ukraine.html

WaPo on the Battle of Bakhmut is perhaps a bit more pessimistic:

Ukrainian forces have been reduced to small footholds in the devastated eastern city of Bakhmut, which despite its limited strategic importance has emerged as the war’s bloodiest battlefield. But they have made gains on the Russian flanks, in a move to encircle the city and extend the fight there, according to Ukrainian officials and military personnel in the field.

Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s eastern military commander who made a surprise visit to the front lines Sunday, acknowledged that Ukraine controlled only a “small part” of Bakhmut, but said that the new aim was to surround the city in a “tactical encirclement,” echoing a statement posted to Telegram by Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar.

Stanislav Bunyatov, 22, a soldier with the 24th Separate Assault Battalion who was injured on Wednesday in fighting near the villages of Klishchiivka and Ivanivske, said that his unit was able to attack during a period when Wagner mercenaries were being replaced by Russian soldiers.

Accounts of Ukrainian success outside of Bakhmut stand in contrast to tales of setbacks within the city. On the roads to Chasiv Yar, a town to the west of Bakhmut that serves as a staging ground for Ukrainian forces, some soldiers offered pessimistic views of the battle for the city.

“Bakhmut is done,” a 47-year-old soldier in the 24th Brigade, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share his candid assessment, said Sunday. He said he had been in the city the day before.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/21/bakhmut-ukraine-russia-zelesnky-encircle/

Still it is clear that the more Russian soldiers tied down in the Battle of Bakhmut, the less Russian soldiers available to immediately respond to Ukrainian penetrations and breakthroughs in the front lines elsewhere.

Here is some footage of a Ukrainian Mech Infantry formation firing on Wagner positions in Bakhmut courtesy of Rob Lee:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1660463340995395585?s=20

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/geoconfirmed/status/1660406365964181505?s=12
https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status/1660413464626462725?s=12
And this is why sending these reserve troops into actual Bakhmut is so stupid on Russia part if Ukraine breaks through Klishchiivka then the guys in Bakhmut are sitting ducks

[GoTfan]

We may soon be facing a situation where Russia has nothing left but reservists. I'll say this much: Red Storm Rising has been more accurate about modern war than just about any non-fiction book ever.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The Ukrainian military talks about Russian tactics, when untrained guys are loaded to the eyeballs and sent to the bullets, so that the unburdened qualified detachment following them has everything they need when it take the point. If this is indeed the case, it is natural that this leads to huge losses. But these losses mean absolutely nothing to the Russians. The unskilled are dying, facilitating with this caravan the work of military specialists. And the value of human life for fans of Stalin and Mao does not exist.

[Woody]

When even CopeMon3 admits it's a sham, you know it's over:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1660283076042162178

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-aid-ukraine-in-fight-against-russia-allies-look-to-security-model-like-israels-8a05f0e5

"To Aid Ukraine in Fight Against Russia, Allies Look to Security Model Like Israel’s"

[Hindsight was 2020]

So ummm some type of Russian army mutiny or rebel group is attacking Begorod
https://twitter.com/eliothiggins/status/1660600899927003137?s=12
https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1660581411722518528?s=12
https://twitter.com/tendar/status/1660604017574117379?s=12