Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

I was not personally familiar with J's views as to the two questions I asked, and make no apology in asking them.

And yes, the answers did surprise me, in part because he implied with with the US out of the picture (don't know about the rest of NATO), he seemed to fantasize about a fair fight rather than near instant Ukrainian collapse.

The takeaway from such a point of view is that smaller more vulnerable nations should get nukes ASAP. Otherwise they are essentially pawns for the predators to play with.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The takeover is that smaller more vulnerable nations should get nukes ASAP. Otherwise they are essentially pawns for the predators to play with.

This is what the Vienna Congress cosplayers fundamentally don't understand. Even Kissinger got that giving every blessed plot on God's green earth reason to think it needs world-ending weapons to defend itself was perhaps to be avoided.

[American2020]

Tankies are mad at Bernie Sanders.

https://twitter.com/wallacemick/status/1632020306863837185

[CumbrianLefty]

In a way, I actually respect Jaichind's honesty. He makes no pretense that his positions are the product of any moral or even epistemic principles other than whatever maximizes his bottom line. There are other posters whose positions are substantively identical to Jaichind's, but who are just better at disguising the shameless, crass self-interest that motivates them under a veneer of profound, high-minded geopolitical reflection (a certain brown UK avatar comes to mind in particular).

Trying to think which of our UK leftists are pro-Russia and struggling tbh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In a way, I actually respect Jaichind's honesty. He makes no pretense that his positions are the product of any moral or even epistemic principles other than whatever maximizes his bottom line. There are other posters whose positions are substantively identical to Jaichind's, but who are just better at disguising the shameless, crass self-interest that motivates them under a veneer of profound, high-minded geopolitical reflection (a certain brown UK avatar comes to mind in particular).

[/b]

Trying to think which of our UK leftists are pro-Russia and struggling tbh.

Brown, not maroon. Or I guess beige is the better word?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Tankies are mad at Bernie Sanders.

https://twitter.com/wallacemick/status/1632020306863837185

Mike Wallace is an assclown and a bootlicker

[Logical]

I was not personally familiar with J's views as to the two questions I asked, and make no apology in asking them.

And yes, the answers did surprise me, in part because he implied with with the US out of the picture (don't know about the rest of NATO), he seemed to fantasize about a fair fight rather than near instant Ukrainian collapse.

Jaichind is a social darwinist. He believes that the strong should and must overpower the weak. He doesn't care nor fantasize about fair fights.

[Frodo]

We really should quarantine Jaichind to the international elections board. 

[Virginiá]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ukraine-running-low-ammo-europe-faces-pressure-produce-rcna73231

"Ukraine is running low on ammo. Europe faces pressure to produce more."

An ambitious proposal made by Estonia and reviewed by NBC News would have Europe increase 155 millimeter artillery shell production by seven times, moving manufacturing capacity from 240,000 to 300,000 shells per year to up to 2.1 million shells annually.

The problem is Ukraine is asking for 250K rounds a month.

https://www.ft.com/content/75ee9701-aa93-4c5d-a1bc-7a51422280fd

"Ukraine asks EU for 250,000 artillery shells a month"

I'm a bit skeptical their guns can actually support that level of expenditure. For example, the M777 towed gun is not in active production anymore and thus no steady replacement of barrels, which generally start to wear after around 3,000 - 4,000 shots, although the operator can ride on the same barrel for quite a while if they don't mind increasing risk of catastrophic failure or inaccurate fires. Ukraine would end up leaning more on CAESAR, Krabs, PzH2000 and M109s, either of which they don't really have a dominating number of right now.

But overall that really isn't a huge number of shells in terms of a major ground war with heavy artillery usage. It's definitely a reasonable estimate, historically speaking, but ultimately actually achieving that rate of fire is going to create a lot of new maintenance and logistical issues.

[Middle-aged Europe]

President Blowhard promises that if elected in '24 he will settle the Ukraine war prior to his actual inauguration - in less than a day.


https://twitter.com/W7VOA/status/1632165541908447232?t=r4_WWgBqYdIk3dFREXvQhg&am...

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Sounds like conspiracy to violate the Logan Act. The Justice Department should (but won't) tell him he can either publicly state that he was lying for political advantage (which is not illegal), or charge him.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Tankies are mad at Bernie Sanders.

https://twitter.com/wallacemick/status/1632020306863837185

Mick Wallace should be deported to one of the despotic regimes he so supports. He can go with SnowLabrador, Clare Daly, Woodbury, Jaichind, Le Pen, and Wagenknecht

[2952-0-0]

I remember a while back I made a L-NY avatar claim that financial fraud is not fraud, as long as there's a genuine for-profit business. So, sometimes he's not always motivated by business interests either.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I was not personally familiar with J's views as to the two questions I asked, and make no apology in asking them.

And yes, the answers did surprise me, in part because he implied with with the US out of the picture (don't know about the rest of NATO), he seemed to fantasize about a fair fight rather than near instant Ukrainian collapse.

Jaichind is a social darwinist. He believes that the strong should and must overpower the weak. He doesn't care nor fantasize about fair fights.

Social Darwinism is far from completely wrong in terms of how the world actually works. The main problem was always linking it inexorably to race, and using it to justify, in their entirety, things that are not okay even if the weaker person or party is weak.

Ask a US military soldier (part of among the most successful military in the modern world, by far) if they want "fair fights" when they could run the table with better weapons and armor. The best militaries have always operated on cutthroat methods because that is just how you survive and win against enemies, and anyone who says otherwise is stuck in FantasticalHonorCodeLand.

Likewise, a weak, divided society will fail to defend itself optimally and will more easily let itself and its interests get eaten through its own division. A bitterly divided Ukrainian society would be the recipe for a Russian victory. A society unwilling to unite against a powerful Nazi political movement will more easily fall to Nazism. Black Americans unifying in solidarity in face of oppression is part of why Black America was able to secure the overturning of Plessy.

The Nazis overdosed on Social Darwinism and show us what happens when it is taken too far. However, that does not mean that as a theory, Social Darwinism doesn't absolutely have its validity and its uses. Like anything, it can and likely will lead to horrific outcomes when taken too far. Reality is nuanced for good reason - it defies easy explanation in all its complexity.

On the balance, it's a good thing Social Darwinism is "discredited" because ordinary people are easily manipulated by ideologues.  But intellectuals should be able to understand the situation more comprehensively and know the nuance of things.

[Woody]

Mariupol:

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mariupol:

How did they rebuild so quickly?

[Woody]

The Russian government wants to make a model city out of Mariupol (Grozny 2.0) to show it's successes. It's been funneling money and mostly workers from Central Asia and other regions of Russia for government contracts.

Current population might be anywhere from low 100,000s (UA estimation from May 2022) to 200,000s.

- Fully rebuilt by 2025
- Plans to have around half a million inhabitants by the next decade (Soviet peak)
- Azovstal will be turned into an industrial park
- Restore the Mariupol International Airport (closed in 2014)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Mariupol:

How did they rebuild so quickly?

Just reviving what Potemkin supposedly did in the vicinity.

[Woody]

Mariupol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Bd405yFT7M

How did they rebuild so quickly?

There were some buildings that were untouched or had fixable damages. Every other complex damaged beyond repair is quickly being demolished (including the Mariupol theater) and replaced by Russian tax money.

Really, nothing will ever compare to what happened in Grozny, for years the "most destroyed city on earth".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It just occurred to me that if Russia was do this anywhere, Mariupol is the most sound option, considering its sheer distance from Ukrainian lines.

[Logical]

Mariupol:

How did they rebuild so quickly?

They didn't. Go search for the latest satellite images on Mariupol. Beyond the city center most buildings remain damaged or destroyed. It's not Marinka or Grozny level devastated true, but still uninhabitable. The industrial zones are completely leveled. I doubt Russia or Ukraine would even consider rebuilding them.

[Woody]

Mariupol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Bd405yFT7M

How did they rebuild so quickly?

They didn't. Go search for the latest satellite images on Mariupol. Beyond the city center most buildings remain damaged or destroyed. It's not Marinka or Grozny level devastated true, but still uninhabitable.

[Logical]

If you're going to watch something on YouTube then I highly recommend this two part documentary instead of a form of propaganda pioneered by Catherine the Great's not so secret lover.

[jaichind]

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/022823-japan-data-imports-russian-sakhalin-blend-crude-for-first-time-in-8-months-in-jan

"JAPAN DATA: Imports Russian Sakhalin Blend crude for first time in 8 months in Jan"

Kishida's Russian oil ban ends.  Makes sense since Japan is still dealing with a domestic retail energy price surge.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1632039212882051072?s=20