Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

I'm going to side Germany on this one, because the US has a complimentary grouping of equipment just sitting around.  We have tanks, anti-aircraft, anti-tanks, armored vehicles, etc.  We have a complete set, so there's no reason to piece it together from different countries.  The US has to take the lead right now.  I understand that the Leopards are useful for offensives, but that ain't happening given the current circumstances.  Ukraine needs to train crewman and support, as well as defend agains the massive Russian offensive that has just begun.  There's no time left to F around.  What is Biden worried about - acting like a cowboy in America?  It's not like he's giving the weapons to Al Qaeda again.  Sorry ISIS-K.  I mean Moderate Muslims.  

Ukraine is about to confront a solid army. Russia is going to attack the Ukrainian forces in every direction.  I see tons of refurbished vehicles and equipment rolling down the tracks, and, as stated in an above post, UK Intelligence is warning about a large Russian Force moving-in to assist Wagner and the LPR.  F Europe.  America needs to lead, and keep things quiet.  

Edit: If accurate, then Holy S##t. 
https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1617567625613131788

Hahahaha…oh wait you were serious.. let me laugh even harder HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Speaking of which, since the OP had posted a Tweet which implied that the might Wagner Group was making massive gains....

Saw this on Newsweek earlier today:

Approximately just one-fifth of the former Russian prisoners recruited to fight against Ukraine as part of the Wagner Group remain, according to a Russian journalist.

Olga Romanova, head of the Rus Seated charity foundation, said in a YouTube video published by the My Russian Rights project that the private military company (PMC) headed by Russian financier and longtime Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin had recruited in the range of 42,000 to 43,000 prisoners by the end of last year.

That tally has most likely surpassed 50,000 fighters in the present state of the war, she said, according to a translation from news outlet Meduza. But of those approximate 50,000 soldiers, only "10,000 are fighting at the front, because all the rest are either killed...or missing, or deserted, or surrendered."

https://www.newsweek.com/most-wagner-prisoner-fighters-are-dead-deserted-after-soledar-ukraine-battle-1775890

OMG Newsweek? I remember them from the lies they told during the Iraq War.  Alright. Let me look into this pile of crap. The source for the statistic is a Russian dissident headquartered in the Netherlands and funded by the EU and an American Think Tank.  Meduza is just an activist publication from the Netherlands that was started by Russian dissidents.  They got shutdown in Latvia for making a few of statements positive towards Russia even though they're backed by NATO countries.   

Anyway, the article didn't provide any legitimate source for their assertions, and merely used their own articles that contained links that didn't contain the information.  Many of their extreme assertions in articles come from Ukraine, which is always over-exaggerated BS.  The same propagandists posting this BS story on Twitter are still claiming that the Russians have not yet captured Soledar.

The one legitimate example that Meduza provided to demonstrate their point is actually F-ed up.
It involved an unknown woman who was sent an empty casket after some Wagner 'representatives' mistakenly claimed her husband died.  Apparently, he was forced to the frontline even though she learned about it from some random prisoner who apparently wasn't forced.  He was captured by Ukrainians.  Never deserted.  However, Ukraine has had a history of pulling dog tags of Russians, calling their loved ones with phone numbers provided, and then extorted them.  It's so common already.  I've seen these guys beat prisoners, and murder them.

Last Point. If these F-ing outlets want to lie about every goddamn story, they should at least couch it in some truth.  Go 50-50.  Like Russia does.  So at least I can filter the lies to get some truth. 

So... as I believe just about every long time poster on Atlas knows that I was 100% against Iraq War 2.0, not to mention having participated in mass protests against Iraq War 1.0.

Still curious about your statement regarding Newsweek and the Iraq War?

If anything the New York Times had a couple reporters who helped cheerlead Iraq 2.0, but whatever...

Let me ask you a question, and please feel free to cite with sources...

What evidence do we have that Wagner forces have not died in huge numbers within the past few months in Donbas, since apparently you have seen enough footage of Ukrainian military vehicles on YouTube destroyed where apparently you want to create your own Tube Channel?

Maybe you have some unique insights not available to the British MoD, US Military, etc... which generally have been much more circumspect regarding Russian Military casualties than the Ukrainian military agencies?

Roughly 10% of Russian Male prison inmates got released from the gulags and sent to Ukraine, either in the regular military or the Wagner Group.

They are effectively cannon fodder in "wave attacks"... sure Russia still has tons of male inmates yet to send to the frontlines, but they are getting slaughtered anyway you look at it.

[jaichind]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/24/ukraines-zelenskyy-renews-war-on-corruption-amid-scandals

"Ukraine’s Zelenskyy renews war on corruption amid scandals"

Looks like a big Ukraine government shakeup is coming soon which seems related to issues of corruption.

[CumbrianLefty]

Very nice, but you missed out a Hollywood "contribution".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/24/ukraines-zelenskyy-renews-war-on-corruption-amid-scandals

"Ukraine’s Zelenskyy renews war on corruption amid scandals"

Looks like a big Ukraine government shakeup is coming soon which seems related to issues of corruption.

Ukraine's magnates continue to be under severe pressure. For them, it will likely get worse before it gets better.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Very nice, but you missed out a Hollywood "contribution".

Fixed:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Another tank related item, it does look like Poland will formally test Germany on the whole tank transfer thing by going through the formal process...

Germany will decide “soon” on whether to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine or approve the export of German-made equipment by other countries, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as pressure mounts on Europe’s largest economy. The German government has to sign off on any transfers of the tanks, about 2,000 of which are scattered across Europe.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Monday that Warsaw would formally submit such a request, after Berlin indicated it would not block the move. The Polish government had previously maintained that it would send the tanks with or without permission.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/23/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

Indeed they did.

Greens and CDU/CSU already came out in favour of Poland's request (I guess FDP will too), while AfD and Left Party urge Scholz to veto it.

I guess it is now up to Scholz to decide whether to follow the horseshoe faction's advice.

Given these circumstances I'm working under the assumption that the request will get a thumbs up by the government though.

[Woody]

Bakhmut/Kreminna:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1617841266737451008?cxt=HHwWgMDU7e...

[Woody]

After days of fog of war when it came to the fortifications around Klischiivka, we now know it's under Wagner control. The only thing standing in the way of encirclement is Ivanivske.

AFU might soon be cut from the east/north (Wagner might already have fire control over the two roads) leaving only one safe passage through Khromove. I predict the AFU will most likely withdraw from Bakhmut mid-February. Valiant effort:

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1617820504706146304

[Virginiá]

U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-formally-requests-german-permission-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-11674558492

WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

I suppose we'll soon see if the statements about tough logistics and sustainment are true. The dam is finally imploding. Hard to say whether those reasons were the true holdup for Abrams deliveries previously, but if they were, reducing pressure and growing distrust between European allies over this issue was clearly a higher priority.

[Virginiá]

Another under-reported reason for this heavy push for modern western tanks is that Ukraine is possibly exhausting it's ammunition for Soviet-era tanks. This is backed up by the last USAI funding package from the US, which included 100,000 125mm shells for tanks, and some recent reports of shortages from Ukrainian officials. Understandable that Ukraine would struggle to adequately supply a growing fleet of Soviet/Russian tanks (both captured, donated and reactivated from storage). Also probably a lesson to Ukrainian tank units that using their tanks in an indirect fire role as pseudo-artillery is not advisable if they want to later have ammunition to use against other Russian armor in future offensives.

[lfromnj]

This will be the first time that we can see m1 abrams in green in action.  Also for their true purpose as well.

[Virginiá]

This will be the first time that we can see m1 abrams in green right ?

Nope. Lots of pictures of that lol





Now that I think about it, it is kind of weird to see green Abrams tanks after a whole life of seeing them clad in tan out in some far-flung desert.

[jaichind]

Another under-reported reason for this heavy push for modern western tanks is that Ukraine is possibly exhausting it's ammunition for Soviet-era tanks. This is backed up by the last USAI funding package from the US, which included 100,000 125mm shells for tanks, and some recent reports of shortages from Ukrainian officials. Understandable that Ukraine would struggle to adequately supply a growing fleet of Soviet/Russian tanks (both captured, donated and reactivated from storage). Also probably a lesson to Ukrainian tank units that using their tanks in an indirect fire role as pseudo-artillery is not advisable if they want to later have ammunition to use against other Russian armor in future offensives.

Is that true? If it were then why do I read about USA's efforts to try to scrape up USSR-made tanks from Latin America to try to send them to Ukraine.

[lfromnj]

This will be the first time that we can see m1 abrams in green right ?

Nope. Lots of pictures of that lol





Now that I think about it, it is kind of weird to see green Abrams tanks after a whole life of seeing them clad in tan out in some far-flung desert.

I meant to say in action as in warfare. Hopefully they fill their true purpose of killing as many vatniks as possible.

[Storr]

I'm waiting to believe it until I hear it from Scholz himself:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1617922512888934400?s=20&t=B3kid9gs...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1617809084170002432?s=20&t=B3kid9gsOpf...

[Logical]

U.S. Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks to Ukraine

https://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-formally-requests-german-permission-to-send-tanks-to-ukraine-11674558492

WASHINGTON—The Biden administration is leaning toward sending a significant number of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and an announcement of the deliveries could come this week, U.S. officials said.

The announcement would be part of a broader diplomatic understanding with Germany in which Berlin would agree to send a smaller number of its own Leopard 2 tanks and would also approve the delivery of more of the German-made tanks by Poland and other nations. It would settle a trans-Atlantic disagreement over the tanks that had threatened to open fissures as the war drags into the end of its first year.

I suppose we'll soon see if the statements about tough logistics and sustainment are true. The dam is finally imploding. Hard to say whether those reasons were the true holdup for Abrams deliveries previously, but if they were, reducing pressure and growing distrust between European allies over this issue was clearly a higher priority.

Live Ukrainian logistics officer reaction

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1617809084170002432?s=20&t=B3kid9gsOpf...

"Scholzen" as a verb is already an (ironizing) existing term in Germany political vocabulary referring to a political style where you are habitually avoiding doing or saying things because it is too inconvenient for you.

[Virginiá]

Is that true? If it were then why do I read about USA's efforts to try to scrape up USSR-made tanks from Latin America to try to send them to Ukraine.

They've been trying to scrape tanks from everywhere (this hasn't been terribly effective outside of initial EU donors, FWIW). Ukraine still needs a lot of tanks to replace losses and stand up new units for future operations. So the choice is either modern MBTs or more Soviet-era tanks pulled from whoever is willing, ammunition concerns aside.

The USAI funding was for a broad range of munitions that Ukraine lacks steady supplies of:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3252782/185-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

45,000 152mm artillery rounds;
20,000 122mm artillery rounds;
50,000 122mm GRAD rockets;
100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition;

US placing such large orders is likely an effort to generate a stable supply if existing stockpiles in accessible countries can't fill the gap. That shouldn't be surprising though, because Europe no longer maintains large active fleets of Soviet tank designs (nor artillery), so there are few factories that can produce large quantities of those shells.

Also:

https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2023/01/ukraine-can-the-german-leopard-change-its-spots

There have been reports of difficulties in supplying 125 mm ammunition for Ukraine’s current MBT fleet, and so access to NATO ammunition stocks and supply lines would be of great benefit to Kyiv. 

I've also seen quotes here and there from Ukrainians (one yesterday even, although can't find it anymore) hinting at supply issues.

This isn't to say there is a severe shortage, though. But it could hint at future shortages. Again, not entirely surprising when tanks are being used in counter-battery and other indirect fire roles due to a shortage of artillery shells. Can't tell you how many of these videos I've seen at this point.

[Virginiá]

30 - 50 Abrams, at least initially, anyway

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1617935914730389504

[jaichind]

https://www.firstpost.com/world/poland-considered-partitioning-ukraine-says-former-polish-foreign-minister-12038982.html

"Poland considered partitioning Ukraine, says former Polish foreign minister"

If true then this confirms a key Russia talking about about Polish plans on Western Ukraine.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

https://www.firstpost.com/world/poland-considered-partitioning-ukraine-says-former-polish-foreign-minister-12038982.html

"Poland considered partitioning Ukraine, says former Polish foreign minister"

If true then this confirms a key Russia talking about about Polish plans on Western Ukraine.

Only if you forget the context.

Anyway, Poles as Europe's rightful masters, etc. Czesc!

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1617947198637080577
Abrams and Leopards on the way.

[Virginiá]

Change in Switzerland regarding re-export rules that previously hindered delivery of much needed ammunition and weapons to Ukraine?

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/wende-bei-waffen-exporten-schweiz-ld.1722731

Such statements and the images of the badly destroyed country are now causing a rethink: the Security Policy Commission of the National Council passed a motion on Tuesday that would allow other countries to re-export armaments from Switzerland in certain cases: namely in conflicts that the UN - Security Council or two-thirds of the UN General Assembly judged to be contrary to international law. In the case of the Ukraine war, the General Assembly has already decided accordingly.

The Federal Council must now examine whether Switzerland will include corresponding exception clauses in the War Material Act and thus be able to react more flexibly to requests from third countries. The Security Policy Committee of the National Council has adopted a motion by 14 to 11 votes. Since the Commission's initiative has broad support, the political knot in arms exports could be resolved relatively quickly. A parliamentary initiative with a similar thrust should even be declared urgent and come into force before the end of this year. This only relates to the Ukraine war and would be limited to the end of 2025.

This turnaround in Swiss foreign policy was made possible by a change of opinion in the SP, which has already become apparent in the past few days. At the weekend, SP co-president Cédric Wermuth told Radio SRF that in the light of the current situation, what was right in terms of neutrality policy had to be assessed. The SP National Councilor Eric Nussbaumer also acknowledged a change of heart: "I hesitated, but now it's clear: the re-export of ammunition and other armaments must be approved for our neighbors on a case-by-case basis in Ukraine."

(Snippets provided via google translate)

[jaichind]

If both Leopard and Abrams tanks show up I think it will be an organizational nightmare for Ukraine.  They will have to run 3 parallel systems with different tank doctrines, training, logistics, spare parts, and repair systems.   I think for this to work NATO "consultants" will need to enter Ukraine to help them run this.