Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Stranger in a strange land]

What happens if Germany does stand in the way, and Poland sends them anyway? Perhaps Germany should get out of the arms manufacture business.

Then Poland is in breach of contract and probably doesn't get any more German weapons, but that's probably why their latest arms deals are mostly with the US and South Korea, and the Korean ones include tech transfer and co-production. The risk for Germany is that it shows itself as an unreliable partner, and many countries will no longer risk buying German weapons. However, as Poland builds up its productive capacity with South Korean help, it can step in to fill the gap and take over Germany's market share.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1617517632768327680?s=20&t=VM8kjD...

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm going to side Germany on this one, because the US has a complimentary grouping of equipment just sitting around.  We have tanks, anti-aircraft, anti-tanks, armored vehicles, etc.  We have a complete set, so there's no reason to piece it together from different countries.  The US has to take the lead right now.  I understand that the Leopards are useful for offensives, but that ain't happening given the current circumstances.  Ukraine needs to train crewman and support, as well as defend agains the massive Russian offensive that has just begun.  There's no time left to F around.  What is Biden worried about - acting like a cowboy in America?  It's not like he's giving the weapons to Al Qaeda again.  Sorry ISIS-K.  I mean Moderate Muslims.  

Ukraine is about to confront a solid army. Russia is going to attack the Ukrainian forces in every direction.  I see tons of refurbished vehicles and equipment rolling down the tracks, and, as stated in an above post, UK Intelligence is warning about a large Russian Force moving-in to assist Wagner and the LPR.  F Europe.  America needs to lead, and keep things quiet.  

Edit: If accurate, then Holy S##t. 
https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1617567625613131788

Hahahaha…oh wait you were serious.. let me laugh even harder HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[Torie]

These downgrades seem rather meaningless. Why hasn't Russia downgraded relations with the greatest "Russiaphobe" of them all, the US? Yes, I know, I know.

[lfromnj]

According to der spiegel Germany only has 130 operational Leopards. Germany is basically the equivalent of Russia at this point except replace the slow corruption with direct defunding.

[jaichind]

An updated chart on Russia's oil exports via tankers.  No sign volume is down as many feared Russia might do in retaliation to oil caps.   This has helped to keep overall oil prices on the lower side.   "Unknown" and "others" tankers are making sure that Russia's oil is being exported at a rate equal to earlier in 2022.   Of course, as pointed out before the discount  Russia has to offer to continue to sell has gone up. 

[jaichind]

According to der spiegel Germany only has 130 operational Leopards. Germany is basically the equivalent of Russia at this point except replace the slow corruption with direct defunding.

This might be an undercount.  The Germans, being Germans, are pretty strict on what it means to be operational when in reality a lot of tanks are de facto operational but are not counted as such.

[Torie]

As of 11 minutes ago, Germany is not blocking the exports of Leapords again. Whether that changes again in the ensuing hour remains to be seen. The atmosphere is unstable.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jan/23/russia-ukraine-war-germany-expects-decision-soon-on-delivery-of-tanks-to-ukraine-zelenskiy-vows-to-fight-corruption-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-63cecf718f08475f7d94db95#block-63cecf718f08475f7d94db95

[Woody]

UPDATE

Erdogan: No NATO for Sweden.

https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1617556395796168705

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1617599253626646528?s=20&t=VM8kjDi4...

The poll details. The last two options are pretty odd. Is anyone actually considering those seriously? Why Lithuania? Ukraine doesn't even border Lithuania.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1617531862309810185?s=20&t=VM8kjD...

[Storr]

Can somebody send these clips to Scholz?

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1617555050083016708?s=20&t=VM8kjD...


https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1617608870209400832?s=20&t=VM8kjD...

Last time I checked Germany =/= Europe...

[Hollywood]

As of 11 minutes ago, Germany is not blocking the exports of Leapords again. Whether that changes again in the ensuing hour remains to be seen. The atmosphere is unstable.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jan/23/russia-ukraine-war-germany-expects-decision-soon-on-delivery-of-tanks-to-ukraine-zelenskiy-vows-to-fight-corruption-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-63cecf718f08475f7d94db95#block-63cecf718f08475f7d94db95

Der Spiegal is implying that German Intelligence is doubtful that Ukraine can hold Russia in Bakhmut, and predicted that Russia will make deep advances if the City should fall to Russia. At 1:46PM, the article adds an update stating, "The Federal Intelligence Service is alarmed by high losses [BND] by the Ukrainian army in the fight for the strategically important city of Bakhmut in the east of the country."  BTW, the name of the prose is 'Zelensky wants to continue fighting for Leopard Tanks  LMAO.    

In my opinion, Germany doesn't want to send Leopard II tanks because they know it won't help Ukraine win.  It'll only piss off Russia, their inevitable trading partner after the war, if they send tanks, and they don't want to face the likely consequences from the Kremlin when the conflict ends.  

[jaichind]

https://odessa-journal.com/volodymyr-zelensky-officials-will-no-longer-be-able-to-travel-abroad-for-non-governmental-purposes/

"Volodymyr Zelensky: Officials will no longer be able to travel abroad for non-governmental purposes"

Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a decree prohibiting officials and law enforcement officers from taking vacations abroad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1617599253626646528?s=20&t=VM8kjDi4...

The poll details. The last two options are pretty odd. Is anyone actually considering those seriously? Why Lithuania? Ukraine doesn't even border Lithuania.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1617531862309810185?s=20&t=VM8kjD...

Make Intermarium Great Again!

Seriously though, Poland, Ukraine and the Baltics (as well as Belarus if it was a democratic country free from Lukashenko's boot) have very strong shared geopolitical interests, and them forming a close-knit military and political bloc would be a great solution to contain Russia in the long run.

[NOVA Green]

On the subject of tanks....

Don't believe it has been posted yet, but Morocco just provided Ukraine with (20) T-72B tanks, indirectly courtesy of Belarus.

Morocco has provided Ukraine's armed forces with "modernized" Soviet T-72B main battle tanks, according to reports, although the move is unlikely to be a "game changer" for Kyiv.

The north African country has promised an "unknown number" of T-72B tanks to Ukraine, the Algerian news outlet Mena Defense reported on Sunday.

"About 20 units were sent to the battlefield a week ago," according to the website.

The outlet said the main battle tanks had been "modernized" in the Czech Republic" ahead of arriving on Ukraine's front lines. They were purchased by Rabat from Belarus between 1999 and 2000, according to reports.

https://www.newsweek.com/what-are-t-72b-tanks-morocco-supplies-ukraine-upgraded-weaponry-1775701

[NOVA Green]

Another tank related item, it does look like Poland will formally test Germany on the whole tank transfer thing by going through the formal process...

Germany will decide “soon” on whether to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine or approve the export of German-made equipment by other countries, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said, as pressure mounts on Europe’s largest economy. The German government has to sign off on any transfers of the tanks, about 2,000 of which are scattered across Europe.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Monday that Warsaw would formally submit such a request, after Berlin indicated it would not block the move. The Polish government had previously maintained that it would send the tanks with or without permission.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/23/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

[rc18]

The poll details. The last two options are pretty odd. Is anyone actually considering those seriously? Why Lithuania? Ukraine doesn't even border Lithuania.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish–Lithuanian_Commonwealth

[NOVA Green]

I'm going to side Germany on this one, because the US has a complimentary grouping of equipment just sitting around.  We have tanks, anti-aircraft, anti-tanks, armored vehicles, etc.  We have a complete set, so there's no reason to piece it together from different countries.  The US has to take the lead right now.  I understand that the Leopards are useful for offensives, but that ain't happening given the current circumstances.  Ukraine needs to train crewman and support, as well as defend agains the massive Russian offensive that has just begun.  There's no time left to F around.  What is Biden worried about - acting like a cowboy in America?  It's not like he's giving the weapons to Al Qaeda again.  Sorry ISIS-K.  I mean Moderate Muslims.  

Ukraine is about to confront a solid army. Russia is going to attack the Ukrainian forces in every direction.  I see tons of refurbished vehicles and equipment rolling down the tracks, and, as stated in an above post, UK Intelligence is warning about a large Russian Force moving-in to assist Wagner and the LPR.  F Europe.  America needs to lead, and keep things quiet.  

Edit: If accurate, then Holy S##t. 
https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1617567625613131788

Hahahaha…oh wait you were serious.. let me laugh even harder HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Speaking of which, since the OP had posted a Tweet which implied that the might Wagner Group was making massive gains....

Saw this on Newsweek earlier today:

Approximately just one-fifth of the former Russian prisoners recruited to fight against Ukraine as part of the Wagner Group remain, according to a Russian journalist.

Olga Romanova, head of the Rus Seated charity foundation, said in a YouTube video published by the My Russian Rights project that the private military company (PMC) headed by Russian financier and longtime Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin had recruited in the range of 42,000 to 43,000 prisoners by the end of last year.

That tally has most likely surpassed 50,000 fighters in the present state of the war, she said, according to a translation from news outlet Meduza. But of those approximate 50,000 soldiers, only "10,000 are fighting at the front, because all the rest are either killed...or missing, or deserted, or surrendered."

https://www.newsweek.com/most-wagner-prisoner-fighters-are-dead-deserted-after-soledar-ukraine-battle-1775890

[All Along The Watchtower]

Well the CDU hopeful for Chancellor last time was actually pro-Russia, if anything.

I mean, within the context of pre-2022 German politics? Arguably most German politicians were "pro-Russia" back then, but some have wisened up more than others since February. Or was he like, Schröder-level bad?

Laschet publicly echoed Russian rhetoric over the civil war in Syria, which tells you a few things.

That he didn’t fall for imperialist warmongering globalist pro-ISIS agitprop?

/s

Oh wait, you said this was the CDU hopeful? Well in my experience, a candidate of the Right supporting Russian foreign policy is usually what a lot of people would call a “fascist.” But that’s anecdotal.

[Alben Barkley]

Vladimir Putin Set To 'Disappear' From Leadership Position As Intelligence Official Confirms There Is 'Cleary Something Wrong' With Russian Leader's Health

[Hollywood]

I'm going to side Germany on this one, because the US has a complimentary grouping of equipment just sitting around.  We have tanks, anti-aircraft, anti-tanks, armored vehicles, etc.  We have a complete set, so there's no reason to piece it together from different countries.  The US has to take the lead right now.  I understand that the Leopards are useful for offensives, but that ain't happening given the current circumstances.  Ukraine needs to train crewman and support, as well as defend agains the massive Russian offensive that has just begun.  There's no time left to F around.  What is Biden worried about - acting like a cowboy in America?  It's not like he's giving the weapons to Al Qaeda again.  Sorry ISIS-K.  I mean Moderate Muslims.  

Ukraine is about to confront a solid army. Russia is going to attack the Ukrainian forces in every direction.  I see tons of refurbished vehicles and equipment rolling down the tracks, and, as stated in an above post, UK Intelligence is warning about a large Russian Force moving-in to assist Wagner and the LPR.  F Europe.  America needs to lead, and keep things quiet.  

Edit: If accurate, then Holy S##t. 
https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1617567625613131788

Hahahaha…oh wait you were serious.. let me laugh even harder HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Speaking of which, since the OP had posted a Tweet which implied that the might Wagner Group was making massive gains....

Saw this on Newsweek earlier today:

Approximately just one-fifth of the former Russian prisoners recruited to fight against Ukraine as part of the Wagner Group remain, according to a Russian journalist.

Olga Romanova, head of the Rus Seated charity foundation, said in a YouTube video published by the My Russian Rights project that the private military company (PMC) headed by Russian financier and longtime Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin had recruited in the range of 42,000 to 43,000 prisoners by the end of last year.

That tally has most likely surpassed 50,000 fighters in the present state of the war, she said, according to a translation from news outlet Meduza. But of those approximate 50,000 soldiers, only "10,000 are fighting at the front, because all the rest are either killed...or missing, or deserted, or surrendered."

https://www.newsweek.com/most-wagner-prisoner-fighters-are-dead-deserted-after-soledar-ukraine-battle-1775890

OMG Newsweek? I remember them from the lies they told during the Iraq War.  Alright. Let me look into this pile of crap. The source for the statistic is a Russian dissident headquartered in the Netherlands and funded by the EU and an American Think Tank.  Meduza is just an activist publication from the Netherlands that was started by Russian dissidents.  They got shutdown in Latvia for making a few of statements positive towards Russia even though they're backed by NATO countries.   

Anyway, the article didn't provide any legitimate source for their assertions, and merely used their own articles that contained links that didn't contain the information.  Many of their extreme assertions in articles come from Ukraine, which is always over-exaggerated BS.  The same propagandists posting this BS story on Twitter are still claiming that the Russians have not yet captured Soledar.

The one legitimate example that Meduza provided to demonstrate their point is actually F-ed up.
It involved an unknown woman who was sent an empty casket after some Wagner 'representatives' mistakenly claimed her husband died.  Apparently, he was forced to the frontline even though she learned about it from some random prisoner who apparently wasn't forced.  He was captured by Ukrainians.  Never deserted.  However, Ukraine has had a history of pulling dog tags of Russians, calling their loved ones with phone numbers provided, and then extorted them.  It's so common already.  I've seen these guys beat prisoners, and murder them.

Last Point. If these F-ing outlets want to lie about every goddamn story, they should at least couch it in some truth.  Go 50-50.  Like Russia does.  So at least I can filter the lies to get some truth. 

[Storr]

I'm going to side Germany on this one, because the US has a complimentary grouping of equipment just sitting around.  We have tanks, anti-aircraft, anti-tanks, armored vehicles, etc.  We have a complete set, so there's no reason to piece it together from different countries.  The US has to take the lead right now.  I understand that the Leopards are useful for offensives, but that ain't happening given the current circumstances.  Ukraine needs to train crewman and support, as well as defend agains the massive Russian offensive that has just begun.  There's no time left to F around.  What is Biden worried about - acting like a cowboy in America?  It's not like he's giving the weapons to Al Qaeda again.  Sorry ISIS-K.  I mean Moderate Muslims.  

Ukraine is about to confront a solid army. Russia is going to attack the Ukrainian forces in every direction.  I see tons of refurbished vehicles and equipment rolling down the tracks, and, as stated in an above post, UK Intelligence is warning about a large Russian Force moving-in to assist Wagner and the LPR.  F Europe.  America needs to lead, and keep things quiet.  

Edit: If accurate, then Holy S##t.  
https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1617567625613131788

Hahahaha…oh wait you were serious.. let me laugh even harder HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Speaking of which, since the OP had posted a Tweet which implied that the might Wagner Group was making massive gains....

Saw this on Newsweek earlier today:

Approximately just one-fifth of the former Russian prisoners recruited to fight against Ukraine as part of the Wagner Group remain, according to a Russian journalist.

Olga Romanova, head of the Rus Seated charity foundation, said in a YouTube video published by the My Russian Rights project that the private military company (PMC) headed by Russian financier and longtime Vladimir Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin had recruited in the range of 42,000 to 43,000 prisoners by the end of last year.

That tally has most likely surpassed 50,000 fighters in the present state of the war, she said, according to a translation from news outlet Meduza. But of those approximate 50,000 soldiers, only "10,000 are fighting at the front, because all the rest are either killed...or missing, or deserted, or surrendered."

https://www.newsweek.com/most-wagner-prisoner-fighters-are-dead-deserted-after-soledar-ukraine-battle-1775890

OMG Newsweek? I remember them from the lies they told during the Iraq War.  Alright. Let me look into this pile of crap. The source for the statistic is a Russian dissident headquartered in the Netherlands and funded by the EU and an American Think Tank.  Meduza is just an activist publication from the Netherlands that was started by Russian dissidents.  They got shutdown in Latvia for making a few of statements positive towards Russia even though they're backed by NATO countries.  

Anyway, the article didn't provide any legitimate source for their assertions, and merely used their own articles that contained links that didn't contain the information.  Many of their extreme assertions in articles come from Ukraine, which is always over-exaggerated BS.  The same propagandists posting this BS story on Twitter are still claiming that the Russians have not yet captured Soledar.

The one legitimate example that Meduza provided to demonstrate their point is actually F-ed up.
It involved an unknown woman who was sent an empty casket after some Wagner 'representatives' mistakenly claimed her husband died.  Apparently, he was forced to the frontline even though she learned about it from some random prisoner who apparently wasn't forced.  He was captured by Ukrainians.  Never deserted.  However, Ukraine has had a history of pulling dog tags of Russians, calling their loved ones with phone numbers provided, and then extorted them.  It's so common already.  I've seen these guys beat prisoners, and murder them.

Last Point. If these F-ing outlets want to lie about every goddamn story, they should at least couch it in some truth.  Go 50-50.  Like Russia does.  So at least I can filter the lies to get some truth.  

Saw this:
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1617671245763608576?s=20&t=VM8kjDi4Nh...

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s like Hollywood saw all the grief Woodbury for his pro Russia takes and thought “man I want in on that but like 1,000 times worse”

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1617599253626646528?s=20&t=VM8kjDi4...
The poll details. The last two options are pretty odd. Is anyone actually considering those seriously? Why Lithuania? Ukraine doesn't even border Lithuania.

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1617531862309810185?s=20&t=VM8kjD...

For centuries we slept, now the winged hussars shall arise